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“Update Strategies for Stand-Based Forest Inventories”
Steve Fairweather Forest Inventory Systems Manager
Mason, Bruce & Girard, Inc.Portland, Oregon
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Total Inventory = (Stand Inventories)
Cruised 2003
Cruised 1995, Grown to 2003
Never cruised, stratum average in 2003
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2J 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2M 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2N 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Q 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2R 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2T 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
“Update Strategy” = Combination of cruising,
growing, and expanding
Cruise 10% of stands each year; expand in first year; grow each stand until it is cruised.
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2J 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2M 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2N 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2Q 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2R 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2T 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2
“Update Strategy” = Combination of cruising,
growing, and expanding
Cruise 10% of stands each year; expand each year; grow each stand until it is cruised.
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3B 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3C 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3D 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3E 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3F 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3G 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3H 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3I 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3J 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3K 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1L 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3M 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3N 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3O 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1P 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3Q 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3R 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3S 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3T 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3
“Update Strategy” = Combination of cruising,
growing, and expanding
Cruise 10% of stands each year; expand each year; no growth modeling.
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1B 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1C 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1D 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1E 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1F 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1G 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1H 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1I 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1J 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1M 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1N 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1Q 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1R 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1S 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1T 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
“Update Strategy” = Combination of cruising,
growing, and expanding
Cruise all stands every 10 years; no expansion; grow each stand until it is cruised.
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1B 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1E 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1F 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1G 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1K 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1N 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Q 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1R 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1S 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
“Update Strategy” = Combination of cruising,
growing, and expanding
Cruise all stands every year; no expansion; no growth modeling.
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Criteria for evaluating inventory
update strategies: • Provide an accurate estimate of the total forest
inventory at any point in time - for valuations.• Provide accurate volume estimates at the stand level
- for operations planning.• Minimize fluctuations in the inventory estimate from
year to year due to the update process being used.• Within time/cost constraints.
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Sources of Inaccuracy:
• Cruising - sampling error– violation of required sample size according to “rules”
• Growth modeling - prediction error (on top of original sampling error)
• Stratification error - original misclassification of stands by forest type
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2J 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2M 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2N 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2Q 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2R 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2T 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1B 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1C 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1D 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1E 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1F 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1G 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1H 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1I 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1J 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1M 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1N 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1Q 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1R 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1S 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1T 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3B 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3C 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3D 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3E 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3F 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3G 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3H 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3I 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3J 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3K 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1L 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3M 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3N 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3O 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1P 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3Q 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3R 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3S 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3T 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1B 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1E 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1F 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1G 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1K 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1N 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Q 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1R 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1S 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Alternative Update Strategies:
Cruise everything
Cruise 10%, expand, grow
Cruise 10% and re-expand
Cruise & grow for 10 yrs
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2J 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2M 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2N 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2Q 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2R 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2T 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1B 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1C 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1D 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1E 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1F 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1G 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1H 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1I 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1J 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1M 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1N 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1Q 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1R 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1S 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1T 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3B 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3C 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3D 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3E 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3F 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3G 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3H 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3I 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3J 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3K 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1L 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3M 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3N 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3O 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1P 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3Q 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3R 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3S 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3T 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1B 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1E 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1F 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1G 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1K 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1N 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Q 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1R 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1S 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Alternative Update Strategies:
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Most accurate, most expensive
Smaller fluctuations, low cost
Possible large fluctuations
Cost “spike”; growth model dep.
How to explain/explore/evaluate
alternative update strategies? • Simulation model in Excel workbook
• Define a forest stratum of 20 stands, with “perfect knowledge” of inventory in each stand for an 11-year period; define stand-to-stand variation
• Define the proposed update strategy
• Describe cruise estimation and growth model errors
• Assign costs for cruising and modeling
• Run repeated trials; collect statistics on performance
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Update Strategy Simulator - Defining
the true inventory over time -
Acres
Beginning volume/acre
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Update Strategy Simulator - Defining true growth for inventory over time -
Use sigmoid yield function to define mai, pai, and annual growth as percent of volume; use equation to determine “true” annual growth
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Update Strategy Simulator - Defining growth model errors -
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Update Strategy Simulator - Defining
the proposed update strategy -
Precision Forestry Seattle, WA6/17/03
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1B 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1E 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1F 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1G 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1K 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1N 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Q 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1R 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1S 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Simulation Results -
$ 64,765
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1B 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1E 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1F 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1G 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1K 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1N 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Q 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1R 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1S 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Simulation Results -
100 replications $ 64,765
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1B 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1E 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1F 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1G 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1K 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1N 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Q 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1R 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1S 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Simulation Results -
100 replications $ 64,765
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1B 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1E 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1F 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1G 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1K 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1N 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Q 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1R 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1S 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Simulation Results -
100 replications $ 64,765
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2J 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2M 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2N 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Q 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2R 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2T 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
Simulation Results -
$ 6,614
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2J 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2M 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2N 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Q 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2R 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2T 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
Simulation Results -
100 reps (No growth error) $ 6,614
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2J 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2M 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2N 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Q 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2R 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2T 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
Simulation Results -
100 reps (No growth error) $ 6,614
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2J 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2M 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2N 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Q 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2R 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2T 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
Simulation Results -
100 reps (No growth error) $ 6,614
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1B 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1E 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1F 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1G 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1K 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1N 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Q 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1R 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1S 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2J 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2M 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2N 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Q 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2R 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2T 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
Simulation Results - 100 reps (No growth error)
$ 6,614
$ 64,765
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1B 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1E 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1F 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1G 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1K 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1N 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Q 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1R 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1S 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2J 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2M 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2N 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Q 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2R 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2T 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
Simulation Results - 100 reps (No growth error)
$ 6,614
$ 64,765
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1B 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1D 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1E 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1F 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1G 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1K 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1L 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1N 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Q 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1R 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1S 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2J 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2M 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2N 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Q 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2R 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2T 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
Simulation Results - 100 reps (No growth error)
$ 6,614
$ 64,765
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
A New Wrinkle - Growth Modeling Errors -
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Simulation Results - 100 reps
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
Growth Model Error
No Growth Model Error
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2J 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2M 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2N 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Q 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2R 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2T 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
Simulation Results - 100 reps
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
No Growth Model Error
Growth Model Error
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2J 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2M 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2N 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Q 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2R 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2T 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
Simulation Results - 100 reps
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
No Growth Model Error
Growth Model Error
INVENTORY UPDATE STRATEGY 1 = Cruise 2 = Grow 3 = Expand
Stand 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003A 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2B 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2C 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2D 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2E 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2F 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2G 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2H 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2I 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2J 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2K 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1L 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2M 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2N 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2O 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1P 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2Q 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2R 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2S 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2T 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
“Update Strategies for Stand-Based Forest Inventories”
Steve Fairweather Forest Inventory Systems Manager
Mason, Bruce & Girard, Inc.Portland, Oregon
503-224-3445
PNW GMUG Portland, OR9/11/03
