Evolve NWS

Dave Hintz Meteorologist In Charge NOAA’s National Weather Service – Rapid City, SD

Why Evolve?

“The NWS can no longer be sold on Capitol Hill as an individual office, but as a service outlet. Our days as an island are over” -Dr. Louis

Uccellini, Director; National Weather Service

Our forecast has gone from the end product of our work, to just the beginning of what we do, of what we are capable of, and what we can provide.

What makes a good forecast?

What makes a good forecast?

Joplin, MO

El Reno, OK

Smithville, MS Tuscaloosa, AL

What makes a good forecast?

‘93 Allan Murphy – What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather

Forecasting.

“…forecasts possess no intrinsic value. They acquire value through their ability to influence the decisions

made by users of the forecasts.”

• NWS job does not end with the forecast, watch and warning.

• Nation needs to be more ready, responsive and resilient in the face of an extreme event

• NWS provides the basis for building a Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) by providing decision support services in advance of and during, and after hazardous events.

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Evolve NWS -The Big Picture

We can’t do it Alone - We need the Weather Enterprise

• Emergency Managers/Water Resource Managers

• Academia/Research

• Private Weather Enterprise/ Industry

Use Information to make decisions to “save lives and property” and build a Weather-Ready Nation

Providers of capability

Development & provision of IDSS to commercial partners

Service Delivery is a two-way street • Enterprise is a force-multiplier for NWS messages; consistent messaging is important

• NWS must keep information flowing to partners in a timely and reliable manner

The whole enterprise operates together to meet the NWS mission

Evolve NWS: Present Day

● Much better models

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-long term forecast -Data vs. DSS desk -Deployment ready forecasters -Get forecasters out on exercises/controlled burns

Evolve NWS – Future

Thinking outside of the box

Evolve NWS – Rumors and Myths

Don’t Close NWS offices

Office Closures or Consolidations?

NWS Staff will be RIF’d (laid off) or let go?

94% of decision support is delivered by WFO’s) and demand exceeds current capacity - at every forecast office.

Dr. Uccellini has gone to the hill several times to say we are going to do this with the current offices and current staff. No closures or RIFs

Evolve NWS – HQ -from Mary Erickson, Deputy Director National Weather Service

• It Will make use of a diverse group of topnotch scientists providing clear and compelling information for critical decisions

• It Will NOT mean that meteorological/hydrologic/climatic skill is not needed, valued or respected

• It Will involve New Science shared in new ways…next generation models, ensembles, blend and situational awareness science tools in virtual and GIS environments,

• It Will involve active & accessible use of science and messaging collaboration tools, to create “Our forecast”. It will require new skills to focus on the right teams on the right issues

• It Will NOT mean local or specialized expertise is unnecessary • It Will NOT mean people will be downgraded or let go • It Will mean we will have to create ways to nimbly flex to seamlessly meet hazards across the

country; it will involve imbedding & occasional deployment, it will involve relationships; it will be customer service oriented

• It will mean that core partners will have an NWS they can rely on!

Evolve NWS

Any Questions?