Update on Direct Use of Natural Gas Analysis

November 2, 2010

Progress Since September

Created data base of all possible existing electric and natural gas space conditioning and water heating system combinations– 5 space conditioning system types– 5 water heating system types (two tank sizes)– 2 dwelling types (SF & MF)– 2 foundation types for SF (basement/non-basement– 3 levels of gas access (existing, extension from street &

main and street extension) 95 Combinations

Input Data Base for Resource Portfolio Model

95 - “existing conditions”– Number of existing regional households assigned to each “existing

condition” using PNRES92 and American Community Survey data

1470 - possible combinations of “existing conditions” and “replacement/conversion conditions.” Each of 1470 combinations assigned – Cost (capital, O&M, gas access)– Energy use by peak and off peak period– Regional technical “conversion potential” calculated for based on

space heating system market shares from PNRES92 and fuel shares from American Community Survey (2009)

Preparing data for use in Regional Portfolio Model

Summary of Completed Analysis

33 of the 95 “market segments” account for 95% of the regional electric “switching” potential

34 of the 95 “market segments” account for 95% of the regional gas “switching” potential

3 of the 95 possible “market segments” have no “units”

Latest version of DUG inputs available for review at: http://www.nwcouncil.org/dropbox/RevisedDUG_HVACDWH_CostUseData_103010.zip

Next Steps

Convert capital and operation and maintenance cost to real levelized cost for use in Regional Portfolio Model (RPM)

Run RPM Create cross-walk between DUG measures

and conservation supply curves to remove pontential for double counting (i.e., if fuel conversion occurs, use of HVAC efficiency upgrades is no longer an “alternative”