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Update on Cash Crops/Winter Cereals. Coleman Research Group Presentation Jan. 24, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Update on Cash Crops/Winter Cereals
Coleman Research Group PresentationJan. 24, 2014
Chad HartAssociate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4
Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,925Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 821
Imports (mil. bu.) 8 28 29 162 35Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,781Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,125 4,795 4,557 4,335 5,300Ethanol (mil. bu.) 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,648 5,000
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,400Exports (mil. bu.) 1,980 1,834 1,543 731 1,450Total Use (mil. bu.) 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,111 13,150Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,631
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.40
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.3Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,289
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 138 151 215 169 141Imports (mil. bu.) 15 14 16 36 25Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,454
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,700Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 110 130 88 90 109Exports (mil. bu.) 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,495Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,099 3,304
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 151 215 169 141 150Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 12.50
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Area Planted (mil. acres) 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7 56.2
Yield (bu./acre) 44.5 46.3 43.7 46.3 47.2Production (mil. bu.) 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,266 2,130Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 657 976 862 743 718
Imports (mil. bu.) 119 97 112 123 160Total Supply (mil. bu.) 2,993 3,279 2,974 3,131 3,008
Food (mil. bu.) 919 926 941 945 950
Seed (mil. bu.) 69 71 76 73 74Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 150 132 162 388 250Exports (mil. bu.) 879 1,289 1,051 1,007 1,125
Total Use (mil. bu.) 2,018 2,417 2,231 2,414 2,399Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 976 862 743 718 608Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.87 5.70 7.24 7.77 6.80
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS
Top: 2013 YieldBottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Yields
Source: USDA-NASS
Top: 2013 YieldBottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Winter Wheat Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS
Top: 2014 Planted AcreageBottom: % Change from last year
Units: Thousand acres
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Small Grains Summary
Source: USDA-NASS
Sorghum Barley Oats2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013
Area Planted (mil. acres) 6.2 8.1 3.6 3.5 2.8 3.0Yield (bu./acre) 49.8 59.6 67.9 71.7 61.3 64.0Production (mil. bu.) 247 389 220 215 64 66
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 23 15 60 80 55 36Imports (mil. bu.) 10 0 23 25 93 95Total Supply (mil. bu.) 279 404 304 320 212 197Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 93 125 59 65 98 85
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 95 100 155 155 76 77Exports (mil. bu.) 76 160 9 10 1 2Total Use (mil. bu.) 264 385 223 230 176 164Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 15 19 80 90 36 33
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.33 4.20 6.43 6.00 3.89 3.60
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Wheat Rust3 types: stem, leaf, and stripeAffects wheat, barley, rye, and some grassesSpread by sporesPrefers wet conditionsStem rust: 65-85 degreesLeaf rust: 59-71 degreesStripe rust: 50-59 degrees
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Oakley CL Wheat Oakley CL is a new hard red winter wheat
Clearfield variety released this fall by the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station.
This new variety has very good resistance to wheat streak mosaic virus and stripe rust. It is moderately susceptible to leaf rust. Its best area of adaptation will be western Kansas.
Registered and certified seed of Oakley CL will be available in the fall of 2014.
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Weather
Source: USDC and USDA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Crush Margin
Source: ISU Extension
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cattle Crush Margin
Source: ISU Extension
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Wheat Export Pace
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures
Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014
4.34 4.294.40
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures
Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014
12.57
10.7710.57
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Wheat Futures
Source: CME Group, 1/21/2014
6.655.75
5.98
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
315
317
319
321
323
325
327
329
331
333
335
Cro
p A
cres
(mill
ion
acre
s)Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Cro
p A
crea
ge (m
illio
n ac
res)
Corn Soybeans Wheat Hay Other
Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2014 and BeyondSupply/demand concerns
Export strength/weakness, China’s moves in the corn & wheat marketsAcreage allocation for 2014, Where do the extra acres go?
2012/13USDA
2013/14USDA
2013/14Futures
(1/21/14)Corn $6.95 $4.40 $4.34Soybeans $14.40 $12.50 $12.57Wheat $7.77 $6.80 $6.65
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
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