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Up, Up and Away!The Increasing Costs
of Crop Inputs!
Mike MlezivaGeneral ManagerAgVentures, LLC
Ag Prices ConferenceWisconsin Dells
High Food Prices
• High Oil Prices
• Changing Diets
• Urbanization
• Expanding Population
• Extreme Weather
• Growth in Biofuel Production
• Speculation
What is Needed?
• More Food Aid
• African Green Revolution Package
• Fewer Export Bands and Tariffs
• More Agricultural Research
• Build Market Infrastructure
• Promote Technology Innovation
• Avoid Counterproductive Policies
Why have nutrient prices increased?
Many of the Same fundamentals causing record grain prices
=> Combination of demand-pull and cost-push factors• Extraordinary nutrient demand growth!• Cost pressures from higher energy and raw
materials prices!
• Higher costs of transporting raw materials and fertilizer materials!
• Falling value of the U.S. dollar!
Commodity
Markets!
U.S. Crop and Fertilizer PricesJune 2008 vs. June 2007
Source: Prices received (crops) and paid (fertilizer) by farmers, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.
Commodity Price Change Soybeans + 80 % Fertilizer + 77 % Corn + 74 % Wheat + 65 % Cotton + 28 %
U.S. Crop and Fertilizer PricesJuly 2008 vs. July 2007
Source: Prices received (crops) and paid (fertilizer) by farmers, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.
Commodity Price Change Fertilizer + 104 % Soybeans + 88 % Corn + 69 % Wheat + 41 % Cotton + 33 %
World Fertilizer Consumption
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,00019
61/6
2
1962
/63
1963
/64
1964
/65
1965
/66
1966
/67
1967
/68
1968
/69
1969
/70
1970
/71
1971
/72
1972
/73
1973
/74
1974
/75
1975
/76
1976
/77
1977
/78
1978
/79
1979
/80
1980
/81
1981
/82
1982
/83
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
thou
sand
met
ric
tons
nut
rien
t
N P2O5 K2OSource: IFA.
U.S. Consumption of Primary Plant Nutrients
0
5
10
15
20
251
96
0
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Year ending June 30
Mill
ion
Sh
ort
To
ns
Nu
trie
nt
Nitrogen P2O5 K2O
Fertilizer Nutrient Demand, FY00/01 and FY05/06
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
United States Rest of World World
mil
lion
sho
rt to
ns n
utri
ent
Demand in FY00/01 Demand Growth - FY00/01 to FY05/06Source: IFA, TFI.
21.2
148.7169.9
18.7 mil. nutrient
tons
5-year growth in world nutrient demand outside the United States nearly equal to adding a new U.S. market to world fertilizer demand!
+ 12.7 %
U.S. Corn Used For Ethanol ProductionU.S. Corn Used For Ethanol Production
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1980/81 1984/85 1988/89 1992/93 1996/97 2000/01 2004/05 2008/09
Billion bushels
Source: USDA; Doane forecast.
U.S. Corn Acres Planted
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
mill
ion
acr
es
93.6 million acres+ 19.5 percent
U.S. Nutrient Use
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Mill
ion
Nu
trie
nt
To
ns
Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Estimate
22.15 Mil.Tons(Down 5.3 %)
21.25 Mil. Tons(Down 4.1 %)
22.7-22.9 Mil.Tons(Up 7-8 %)
U.S. Ave. Annual Natural Gas Price
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
$ M
MB
tu
Source: Spot-delivered-to-pipeline price, Natural Gas Week.
U.S. N Imports by Material, FY2005/06
Urea27.2%
Nitrogen solutions7.5%
Ammonium nitrate4.0%
Other1.4%
Anhydrous ammonia59.9%
11.48 million short tons N
Source: The Fertilizer Institute and the U.S. Department of Commerce.
U.S. N Imports by Country, FY2005/06
Trinidad & Tobago35.5%
Canada19.3%
Middle East11.7%
Ukraine10.1%
Russia7.6%
Romania3.6%
Venezuela2.9% Other
9.2%
Source: The Fertilizer Institute and the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Rising Energy and Feedstock Costs
PRODUCTION COST IMPACTS
Ammonium Phosphates
=> higher energy prices
=> higher phosphate rock prices
=> higher sulfur prices
=> higher ammonia P’s
Potash
=> higher electricity and natural gas P’s
Phosphate Rock - Tampa (1980-2006); Morocco (2007-08)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
$ p
er s
ho
rt t
on
mat
eria
l
Source: Green Markets.
Morocco, March 24, 2008: $180-$200
Morocco, March 24, 2007: $42-$46
Morocco, April 21 - June 30, 2008: $150 - $400
Morocco, July 2008: $400 - $500
Recovered Sulfur - Tampa
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
$ p
er lo
ng
to
n m
ater
ial
Source: Green Markets.
April 21- July 7: $450.50 - $453.50
Jan. 21 - April 20: $252
Cost of Major Inputs into DAP Production
$-
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
2005 July 14, 2008
Phosphate rock Sulfur Anhydrous ammonia
$ 144
$ 1,077
World K2O Production - 2007Canada; 32.6%
Russia; 19.1%
Belarus; 14.9%
Germany; 10.8%
Israel; 6.4%
China; 5.6%
Jordan; 3.2%
USA; 2.3%
Spain; 1.4%
U.K.; 1.3%
Brazil; 1.2%
Chile; 1.2%
Source: IFA.
33.4 millionmetric tons K2O
ConcentrationTop 1 - 33 %Top 2 - 52 %Top 3 - 66 %Top 4 - 77 %
World K2O Exports - 2007Canada; 39.0%
Russia; 19.9%
Belarus; 16.1%
Germany; 11.2%
Israel; 7.5%
Jordan; 3.7%
Spain; 1.2%
U.K.; 0.8%
USA; 0.5%
Chile; 0.1%
Source: IFA.
27.2 million metrictons K2O to over
100 countries
ConcentrationTop 1 - 39 %Top 2 - 59 %Top 3 - 75 %Top 4 - 86 %
Over 80% of production
exported compared to
12.5% for world grains
North American Potash ProducersMonthly Ending Inventory
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
1989
-07
1990
-01
1990
-07
1991
-01
1991
-07
1992
-01
1992
-07
1993
-01
1993
-07
1994
-01
1994
-07
1995
-01
1995
-07
1996
-01
1996
-07
1997
-01
1997
-07
1998
-01
1998
-07
1999
-01
1999
-07
2000
-01
2000
-07
2001
-01
2001
-07
2002
-01
2002
-07
2003
-01
2003
-07
2004
-01
2004
-07
2005
-01
2005
-07
2006
-01
2006
-07
2007
-01
2007
-07
2008
-01
tho
usa
nd
sh
ort
to
ns
K2O
Source: IPNI and TFI.
Tight Stocks!
Sinkhole Threatens Russian Potash Shipments
Silvinit• 9% of global potash capacity• Only available rail link from Silvinit mines• Sinkhole currently 100 meters from rail link• Safety officials will shut down if it gets within 70-80 meters• Would be disrupted for “… several weeks at least …” as govn’t considers options for a third rail spur.
Best case Worst CaseUncertainty Disruption in Shipments
OTHER FACTORS
• Exchange Rates• Labor Issues• Shipping/Distribution Costs• Food and Fertilizer Export Curbs
Canadian Exchange Rate Example January 2003 December
2007 Change
Exchange Rate: $ CAN/$ US 1.5410 1.000 - 35%
Price of Product X $ 100.00 $ 100.0 0%
Receipts in $ CAN $ CAN 154.10 $ CAN 100.00 -35%
Price Rise in $ U.S. Necessary to Maintain Receipts in $ CAN:
Price of Product X $ 100.00 $ 154.10+54%
Receipts in $ CAN $ CAN 154.10 $ CAN 154.10 0%
Shipping/Distribution Costs are UP!
RISING:
• Ocean Freight Rates
• Rail Rates, especially for ammonia
• Barge Rates
• Truck Rates
Countries also curb fertilizer exports
Export tariffsor
“instructions” to sell product in the domestic market
ChinaRussiaUkraineBelarusEgypt
VietnamIndonesia
Chinese Fertilizer Export Tariffs, Effective April 20, 2008
Source: The Chinese Finance Ministry.
Ammonia 0 100 100Urea 35 100 135Ammonium Sulfate 0 100 100Ammonium Nitrate 0 100 100Potash 30 100 130DAP 35 100 135MAP 35 100 135NPK 35 100 135
percent
Original Tax Rate
Special Tax Rate
Revised Tax RateProduct
May 12 earthquake: Sichuan Prov.
urea & MAP production!
Recap: Factors Resulting in Higher Fertilizer Prices
• Dramatic Increase in World Nutrient Demand• More Recently, Rise in U.S. Nutrient Demand• Decline In Domestic N Supply – Natural Gas P’s!• Which resulted in Increased U.S. Imports of Nitrogen• Rising Energy P’s => Higher Production Costs• Rising Raw Material P’s => Higher Production Costs Tighter supplies of all nutrients!• Increased Shipping/Distribution Costs (ocean freight; rail; barge; truck)• Falling Value of the U.S. Dollar• Curb on food and fertilizer exports by selected countries
World Urea Production Capacity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
thou
sand
met
ric
tons
N
Source: IFA.Growth: Primarily China and the Middle
East
World DAP Production Capacity
0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
thou
sand
met
ric
tons
P2O
5
Source: IFA. Growth: Sooner - China & Morocco Later – Saudi Arabia &
Algeria
World Potash Production Capacity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
thou
sand
met
ric
tons
K2O
Source: IFA. Growth: North America, China, Middle East,
Russia, Belarus & Argentina
World Nitrogen Consumption
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY1995/96 FY2000/01 FY2005/06 FY2010/11
mil
lion
sho
rt to
ns N
United States Rest of World
+ 5 %
+ 11 %
+ 20 %
Source: TFI and IFA.
World Phosphate Consumption
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
FY1995/96 FY2000/01 FY2005/06 FY2010/11
mil
lion
sho
rt to
ns P
2O5
United States Rest of World
+ 6 %
+ 13 %
+ 18 %
Source: TFI and IFA.
World Potash Consumption
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
FY1995/96 FY2000/01 FY2005/06 FY2010/11
mil
lion
sho
rt to
ns K
2O
United States Rest of World
+ 7 %
+ 17 %
+ 21 %
Source: TFI and IFA.
USA 1.00 : 0.37 : 0.39China 1.00 : 0.39 : 0.20India 1.00 : 0.41 : 0.19
Other Factors
• U.S. Nat Gas P’s to Remain High
• Energy Prices to Remain High
• Shipping/Distribution Costs to Remain High
• $ U.S. Dollar – No significant recovery soon
Summary• Nutrient markets could be tight until 2009 as demand has
expanded more rapidly than was expected a few years ago.
• While urea supply is projected to grow, the supply/demand balance will remain tight in 2008, possibly easing somewhat in 2009. If planned capacity expansions materialize, a surplus could emerge in 2010 or beyond.
• The DAP, MAP and TSP market will be balanced throughout most of the forecast period. Very few producers have available swing capacity for export.
• Potash supplies will eventually increase in most exporting countries. Because of a shift towards more balanced fertilizer use, no significant surplus will likely develop before 2011, at the earliest.
Fertilizer Prices at Record Levels
Index of Fertilizer Prices Paid by Farmers, Jan. 1995 - June 2008
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
1995
July
1996
July
1997
July
1998
July
1999
July
2000
July
2001
July
2002
July
2003
July
2004
July
2005
July
2006
July
2007
July
2008
1990
-199
2 =
100
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.
Increase of 268 percent
January 2000 – June 2008
Fertilizer Price Comparison
Jan. 2006 Jan. 2007 Jan. 2008 Aug. 2008
46-0-0 $385 $365 $570 $885
11-52-0 $372 $360 $625 $1195
0-0-60 $272 $268 $510 $838
Crop Protection Product Comparison
May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 Aug. 2008
Atrazine 9-0 $2.60 $2.58 $3.28 $3.45
Glyphosate $19.75 $19.50 $27.50 $36.35
Lumax $38.65 $43.20 $48.75 $48.75
Surfactant $24.10 $23.30 $24.35 $24.95
Seed Price Comparison
May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 Aug. 2008
Corn Bt RR $134 $189 $194 $246
Soybean RR $27.10 $31.50 $35.00 $60.00
Alfalfa $3.20 $3.20 $3.90 $5.10
Wheat $9.00 $10.60 $18.50