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Maria Balgova httpssitesgooglecomviewmariabalgova
mariabalgovacccoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics
Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +44 7719 268635
Undergraduate Studies BA in Economics University of Cambridge 2010-2013 First Class Graduate Studies DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford 2016 to present Thesis Title ldquoJob Search and Migrationrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2019 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford 2013-2015 Distinction References
Professor Margaret Stevens Professor Abi Adams Department of Economics
University of Oxford Department of Economics University of Oxford
+44 1865 271092 margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 618703 abiadamseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Steve Bond Dr Alexander Plekhanov Department of Economics
University of Oxford Office of the Chief Economist European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
+441865 281289 stevebondeconomicsoxacuk
+44 20 7338 6037 plekhanaebrdcom
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Labour Secondary fields Applied Microeconomics Regional Economics Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2016-2018 ESRC and Wolf Scholarship University of Oxford (PhD funding) 2013-2015 Dulverton Scholarship University of Oxford (MPhil funding) 2014 George Webb Medley prize for MPhil exam performance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Prelims and Core Macroeconomics University of Oxford undergraduate
tutor (teaching assistant) 2016-2018 British Economic History University of Oxford undergraduate tutor
(teaching assistant) Summer vacation
2017 Introduction to Economics Discover Summer School for high school students Slovakia lecturer (volunteer position)
Research Experience and Other Employment 2015-2017 The CORE Project research assistant 2015 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development intern 2015 The Financial Times Peter Martin Fellow leader writer Seminar and Conference Presentations 2018 Royal Economic Society Symposium of Junior Researchers (University of
Sussex) EBRD conference on Sustaining Growth (London) Search and Matching Annual Conference (University of Cambridge) Oxford Applied Micro (seminar) Oxford International Trade (seminar) ZEW Summer School (Mannheim) UCL Centre for Comparative Studies of Emerging Economies (seminar) Econometric Society Winter Meeting (Naples forthcoming)
2017 European meeting of the Urban Economic Association (University of Copenhagen) Oxford International Trade (seminar) Congress of the International Economic Association (Mexico City)
2016 Rimini Conference in Economics and Finance (Wilfrid Laurier University) Professional Activities 2017 Economics taster sessions for Pathways University of Oxford access and
outreach initiative 2016 Tutor for UNIQ summer school University of Oxford access and outreach
initiative Job Market Paper ldquoWhy donrsquot less educated workers move The role of job search in migration decisionsrdquo I establish a new stylised fact showing that less educated workers are not only less mobile they are also significantly less likely to move with a job in hand Using evidence based on US panel data I argue that a large portion of the observed differences in migration behaviour is driven by the differences in workersrsquo employment options in other regions Compared to college graduates less educated workers find job search in more distant regions much more difficult This limits their options to move for guaranteed employment forcing them to move speculatively and thereby reducing their overall mobility I develop these results in two stages First I adapt the recent literature from empirical IO on discrete choice models with heterogeneous option sets to isolate the impact of differences in employment opportunities on migration decisions Second I extend the standard model of job search (McCall 1970) to multiple residential locations I estimate this model to quantify the size of cross-regional job search frictions finding that they can explain approximately half of the migration propensity gap between the more and the less educated This result opens a new policy channel in addressing regional differences and those left behind the importance of the ability to find a job before moving suggests a large social return to improving regional search and matching for less educated groups
Working Papers ldquoLabour market frictions and regional disparitiesrdquo (2017)
Labour market outcomes di er across regions and these di erences are strongly persistent The aim of this paper is to explain regional disparities and the lack of convergence using labour market frictions The paper draws on two fields New Economic Geography and frictional labour markets I use the idea of thick labour markets to motivate clustering of economic activity and consequently
di erences in unemployment rates and wages Because increasing returns to matching create a link between frictions in the labour market and its size workers in the thin labour markets will find it increasingly difficult to match with employers in the bigger more prosperous markets As a
consequence utility will not be equalised across regions and regional di erences will persist ldquoThe economic impact of reducing non-performing loansrdquo (with Alexander Plekhanov and Michel Nies EBRD working paper and a voxeu column 2016) Using newly collected data on non-performing loan (NPL) reduction episodes and policies this paper analyses the problem of NPLs and the burden they impose on the economy Using matching analysis we compare three different scenarios following a rise in NPLs active measures to reduce the stock of NPLs a decline in NPL ratio primarily due to fast growth of new credit and periods when high NPLs persist We find that reducing NPLs has an unambiguously positive medium-term impact on the economy While countries that experience an influx of fresh credit grow the fastest the economies that actively seek to resolve NPLs do comparably well On the other hand when the NPL problem is ignored economic performance suffers the foregone growth due to an overhang of NPLs can be in excess of 2 percentage points annually until the problem is resolved Work in Progress ldquoThe geographic radius of recruitment evidence from newspaper job postingsrdquo ldquoUniversity enrollment and subject choice the role of individual-specific job market frictionsrdquo
Gregorio Curello sitesgooglecomviewgregoriocurello gregoriocurelloeconomicsoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
St Cross College 61 St Gilesrsquo Oxford OX1 3LZ United Kingdom
+44 7 460708580
Undergraduate Studies
BA Mathematics University of Cambridge 2012
Graduate Studies
MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15 with Distinction DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015 to present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Microeconomic Theoryrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2018
References
Professor John K-H Quah Professor Peter Eso
Department of Economics Johns Hopkins University
Department of Economics University of Oxford
+1 410 516 1014 johnquah at jhuedu
+44 1865 281483 petereso at economicsoxacuk
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford
+44 1865 278570 margaretmeyer at nuffieldoxacuk
Teaching and Research Fields
Microeconomic theory dynamic games monotone comparative statics economics of innovation
Teaching and Research Experience
2018 - 2019 1st-year UG Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant at St Hildarsquos College Oxford
2015 - 2018 1st-year UG Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant at Jesus College Oxford
2017 Fall Academic visit to Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences Department Kellogg School of Management Northwestern University Evanston IL
Professional Activities
Referee for the Journal of Economic Theory
Referee for the Journal of Mathematical Economics
Conference Presentations
2018 Econometric Society European Winter Meeting Naples (will present my JMP)
2018 Lisbon Meetings in Game Theory Lisbon (will present my JMP)
2018 ES European Summer Meeting Cologne (presented my JMP)
2018 ES North American Summer Meeting Davis (presented my JMP)
2016 Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory Rio de Janeiro (presented Monotone decision rules and supermodularity)
Honors and Scholarships
2017 - 2018 Final-Year Doctoral Scholarship from the Department of Economics (Oxford)
2014 - 2018 Studentship from the Economic and Social Research Council
2015 - 2018 Godfrey Tyler Scholarship in Economics St Cross College (Oxford)
2015 George Webb Medley Prize for the best performance in written exams (MPhil Economics)
2015 George Webb Medley Prize for the best MPhil thesis
2014 Best performance in written exams (first year of MPhil Economics)
Research Papers
ldquoIncentives for Collective Innovationrdquo (Job Market Paper)
Identical agents exert hidden effort to produce random increments in the stock of a public good and receive a stock- and effort-contingent flow of payoffs I characterise the unique symmetric Markov equilibrium and for the two-agent binary-effort case the payoff-maximising equilibrium when strategies may condition on private histories as well In contrast to the social-welfare benchmark under general conditions continuation payoffs in the symmetric Markov and the best non-Markov equilibria may drop after an increment in the stock In this case reducing the risk of producing negligible increments in favour of moderate ones always reduces ex-ante equilibrium welfare and delaying the disclosure of increments (forgoing their benefits) based on their size is incentive-compatible and welfare-enhancing In the context of an RampD alliance in which improvements in a shared technology raise the incentive to shift resources towards private activities concealing moderate improvements may raise private profits and collective progress
ldquoMonotone Decision Rules and Supermodularityrdquo
I study decision problems under uncertainty involving the choice of a rule mapping states into actions I show that for any rule there exists an increasing rule generating higher expected value for all payoff functions that are supermodular in action and state I present applications to problems of taxation betting and price discrimination in a market with a demand externality I then consider the choice of rules mapping noisy signals of the state into actions I give conditions under which optimal rules are increasing when (a) several agents commit to a shared rule or (b) the relationship between the signal and the state is ambiguous I show that a well-known informativeness criterion applies to these cases
ldquoThe Lattice Structure of Single-Crossingrdquo (in progress) joint with Ludvig Sinander
Most comparisons of preferences are special cases of single-crossing dominance We examine the lattice structure of single-crossing dominance proving characterisation existence and uniqueness results for minimum upper bounds of arbitrary sets of preferences In particular the set of all preferences over a totally-ranked set of alternatives is a complete lattice Using these theorems we characterise a general class of maxmin preferences as precisely minimum upper bounds with respect to lsquomore ambiguity-averse thanrsquo we develop a misspecification-robust theory of monotone comparative statics and one relating to the consensus of a group of agents we characterise when acceptable aggregation of individual preferences is possible in an environment with normative constraints we study the evolution of pro-social behaviour and sharply characterise the population dynamics of pro-sociality
Last updated 29 October 2018
Manuel Fernandez SierraWebsite sitesgooglecomviewmanuelfernandezsierra
Email mfernandezsierraessexacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Admin Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
CONTACTINFORMATION
Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)University of EssexWivenhoe ParkColchester UK CO4 3SQPhone +44 (0)7464291148
PERSONALINFORMATION
Citizenship Colombia US Permanent resident (Green Card)
EDUCATION DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2018MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2014MSc Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2011BA Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2008
REFERENCES Sonia BhalotraProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of EssexColchester C04 3SQ UKPhone +(44) 01206 873700email srbhalessexacuk
Climent Quintana-DomequeProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of ExeterExeter EX4 4PU UKPhone +44 (0) 1392 726105email CQuintana-Domequeexeteracuk
Julian MessinaLead Research EconomistDepartment of Research and Chief EconomistInter-American Development BankWashington DC 20577 USAPhone +(1) 202 942-8211email julianmIADBORG
Simon QuinnAssociate Professor in EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsOxford UniversityOxford OX1 3UQ UKPhone +(44) 01865 271089email simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS Labor Economics Development Economics Health Economics
TEACHINGEXPERIENCE
(Lecturer) Econometrics I Universidad de los Andes 2015(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Graduate) Oxford University 2014 - 2017(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Second Year UG) Oxford University 2017(TA) Advanced Econometrics (Graduate) Universidad de los Andes 2009 - 2010(TA) History of Economic Analysis (UG) Universidad de los Andes 2009
JOURNALARTICLES
Fernandez M and Messina J (2018) Skill Premium Labor Supply and Changes inthe Structure of Wages in Latin America Journal of Development Economics 135pp 555-573
Fernandez M Ibanez A M and Pena X (2014) Adjusting the Labor Supply toMitigate Violent Shocks Evidence from Rural Colombia The Journal of DevelopmentStudies 50(8) pp1135-1155
Fernandez M (2012) Violencia y Derechos de Propiedad El Caso de La Violencia enColombia Ensayos Sobre Polıtica Economica 30(69) pp113-147
RESEARCHPAPERS INPROGRESS
Female Labor Force Participation and the Distribution of the Gender Wage GapJob Market PaperLatest Version
We analyse impacts of the rising labor force participation of women on the distributionof the gender wage gap We formulate an equilibrium model of the labor market inwhich the elasticity of substitution between male and female labor is allowed to varydepending on the task content of occupations We structurally estimate the parametersof the model using household survey data from Mexico between 1989 and 2014 We findthat the elasticity of substitution is higher in high-paying occupations that are intensivein abstract and analytical tasks than in low-paying manual and routine occupationsConsistent with this we find that the sharp rise in female labor force participationgenerated strong downward pressure on the wages of female workers especially in low-paying occupations Demand side trends favoured women and this attenuated thesupply-driven negative pressure on their wages The paper contributes new evidenceon the distribution of the gender wage gap and contributes to a wider literature ontechnological change occupational sorting and wage inequality
Herding in Equity Crowdfundingwith T Astebro S Lovo and N VulkanLatest Version
Do equity crowdfunding investors herd We build a model where informed and unin-formed investors arrive sequentially and choose whether and how much to invest Wetest the model using data of investments on a leading European equity crowdfundingplatform We show theoretically and find empirically that the size and likelihood of apledge is affected positively by the size of the most recent pledges and negatively bythe time elapsed since the most recent pledge The empirical analysis is inconsistentwith naıve herding independent investments or exogenously correlated investments
Job Search Intensity Information Capacity Constraints and the Wage DistributionExtended Abstract
Most research on the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTrsquos)on income inequality has focused on the potential of machines to replace or complementhuman labor I propose an alternative mechanism by which an increase in the qualityand quantity of information that firms can obtain about prospective workers broughtabout by ICT advancements results in higher residual earnings dispersion in a waythat is unrelated to job displacements In the model individuals searching for a joband firms trying to fill a vacancy have information capacity constraints that limit theirability to uncover the potential productivity of the match Within an equilibrium jobsearch framework I show that loosening the information constraints leads to a highervariance of the equilibrium distribution of wages This result arises because firms are
better able to discriminate good and bad matches which directly affects the wagebargaining process
Restricting Access to Health Services Citizens Rights and the Effects of Denying Med-ical Carewith S Bhalotra
Since 2013 more than 16 million complaints were made to the Colombian NationalHealth Superintendence against health insurers for restricting access to medical careservices Over the last decade more than one million legal claims (tutelas) have beenmade to courts by individuals protesting that their right to health was undermined byan insurer We study how these restrictions of access to medical services by insurersaffect their enrolleesrsquo health We construct a panel dataset of insurers in every mu-nicipality of Colombia with yearly information on the number of enrollees complaintstutelas and mortality rates between 2010 and 2016 Our identification strategy usespolicy interventions by the ministry of health that changed the competitive structureof the healthcare system modifying the market power of insurers at the local leveland altering the incentives to compete for enrollees Preliminary results show that anincrease in the number of tutelas or complaints against an insurer is strongly associ-ated with an increase of the overall and cause-specific mortality rates of its enrolleesWe find that the effect is stronger in the subsidized regime which covers the poorestsegments of the population
Gender Debate and Rebellion in the House of Commons 1992 - 2015 A StructuralTopic Modelling Approachwith S Bhalotra and J Slapin
The number of women in the British House of Commons has increased substantiallyover the last quarter century But how has the increasing number of women MPs shapedpolitics in Britain We address this question by examining women MPsrsquo participationin parliamentary debate using transcripts from more than 400000 speeches made inthe House of Commons between 1992 and 2015 In addition to examining whetherwomen participate at a similar rate to their male colleagues we examine whethertheir participation is associated with particular debate topics using a structural topicmodel We find that certain debate topics in parliament are gendered However theprevalence of these topics does not seem to vary over time with the number of womenin parliament Moreover we find that women are underrepresented in parliamentarydebates controlling for party and seat share often even on debates associated withwomenrsquos topics If women MPsrsquo participation shapes policy and impacts politicalrepresentation their underrepresentation in debate may have significant normativeimplications for democracy
BOOKCHAPTERS
Bhalotra S Fernandez M Venkataramani A (2015) The Right Tail and the RightTale Women and Skill in Mexico In S Polanchek K Tasiramos and K Zimmermaneds Gender Convergence in the Labor Market Research in Labor Economics Vol 41Emerald Publishing Group pp 299-341
Fernandez M Hernandez C Ibanez A M and Jaramillo C (2016) DinamicasProvinciales de Pobreza en Colombia 1993-2005 In F Benito and J Berdegue edsLos Dilemas Territoriales del Desarrollo en America Latina Universidad de los Andespp 187-210
OTHEREMPLOYMENT
Senior Research Officer 2017-
Institute for Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of EssexColchester UK
Research Assistant 2010-2012Office of the Chief Economist for Latin AmericaThe World BankWashington DC
PROFESSIONALAFFILIATIONS
Research Affiliate IZA 2018-
PRESENTATIONS Labour and Public Economics Seminar Series Paris School of Economics Fall 2018Economics Department Seminar Series Universidad del Rosario Bogota Fall 2018IZA and World Bank Jobs amp Development Conference Bogota Spring 2018Spanish Economic Association (SAEe) Annual Meetings Barcelona Fall 2017LACEA Annual Meetings Buenos Aires Fall 2017Economics Department Seminar Series University of Essex Colchester Fall 2016Finance Seminar Series University of Oxford Oxford Spring 2016World Bank Workshop on Earnings Inequality Understanding the Trend Reversal ofWage Inequality in LAC Washington DC Fall 2015IZA Workshop on Gender Convergence Why Are Women Becoming More Like Men(and Men More Like Women) in the Labor Market Bonn Spring 2014
INVITED TOREFEREE
Management Science Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Journal of Devel-opment Studies Review of Economics of the Household
AWARDS ANDFELLOWSHIPS
Final-Year Departmental Doctoral Bursary and Graduate Teaching Assistantship Uni-versity of Oxford 2016-2017Economics Department Doctoral Studentship University of Oxford 2014-2016
PROGRAMMING R STATA MATLAB Python LATEX
Last updated October 2018
Simon FranklinLondon School of Economics
Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE +44 (0) 7887795953SFranklin1lseacuk wwwsimonfranklinco
Citizenship South African
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Placement Assistant Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
CURRENT POSITION
London School of Economics 2015 - PresentPostdoctoral Research Economist
EDUCATION
University of OxfordDPhil in Economics 2011- 2015
Thesis Title Essays on Labour Markets Frictions in Developing CountriesEdgeworth Prize for outstanding doctoral thesis
MPhil in Economics (Distinction) 2009-2011George Webb Medley Prize for Best Thesis (proxime accessit)
University of Cape TownBCom (Honours) in Economics (Distinction) 2008
REFERENCES
Professor Marcel FafchampsFreeman Spogli InstituteStanford Universityfafchampstanfordedu
Professor J Vernon HendersonDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentLondon School of Economicsjvhendersonlseacuk
Doctor Gharad BryanDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsgtbryanlseacuk
Professor Robin BurgessDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsrburgesslseacuk
Doctor Simon QuinnDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordsimonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS
Primary DevelopmentSecondary Labour Urban Applied microeconomics
1
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Prelims and Core Macroeconomics University of Oxford undergraduate
tutor (teaching assistant) 2016-2018 British Economic History University of Oxford undergraduate tutor
(teaching assistant) Summer vacation
2017 Introduction to Economics Discover Summer School for high school students Slovakia lecturer (volunteer position)
Research Experience and Other Employment 2015-2017 The CORE Project research assistant 2015 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development intern 2015 The Financial Times Peter Martin Fellow leader writer Seminar and Conference Presentations 2018 Royal Economic Society Symposium of Junior Researchers (University of
Sussex) EBRD conference on Sustaining Growth (London) Search and Matching Annual Conference (University of Cambridge) Oxford Applied Micro (seminar) Oxford International Trade (seminar) ZEW Summer School (Mannheim) UCL Centre for Comparative Studies of Emerging Economies (seminar) Econometric Society Winter Meeting (Naples forthcoming)
2017 European meeting of the Urban Economic Association (University of Copenhagen) Oxford International Trade (seminar) Congress of the International Economic Association (Mexico City)
2016 Rimini Conference in Economics and Finance (Wilfrid Laurier University) Professional Activities 2017 Economics taster sessions for Pathways University of Oxford access and
outreach initiative 2016 Tutor for UNIQ summer school University of Oxford access and outreach
initiative Job Market Paper ldquoWhy donrsquot less educated workers move The role of job search in migration decisionsrdquo I establish a new stylised fact showing that less educated workers are not only less mobile they are also significantly less likely to move with a job in hand Using evidence based on US panel data I argue that a large portion of the observed differences in migration behaviour is driven by the differences in workersrsquo employment options in other regions Compared to college graduates less educated workers find job search in more distant regions much more difficult This limits their options to move for guaranteed employment forcing them to move speculatively and thereby reducing their overall mobility I develop these results in two stages First I adapt the recent literature from empirical IO on discrete choice models with heterogeneous option sets to isolate the impact of differences in employment opportunities on migration decisions Second I extend the standard model of job search (McCall 1970) to multiple residential locations I estimate this model to quantify the size of cross-regional job search frictions finding that they can explain approximately half of the migration propensity gap between the more and the less educated This result opens a new policy channel in addressing regional differences and those left behind the importance of the ability to find a job before moving suggests a large social return to improving regional search and matching for less educated groups
Working Papers ldquoLabour market frictions and regional disparitiesrdquo (2017)
Labour market outcomes di er across regions and these di erences are strongly persistent The aim of this paper is to explain regional disparities and the lack of convergence using labour market frictions The paper draws on two fields New Economic Geography and frictional labour markets I use the idea of thick labour markets to motivate clustering of economic activity and consequently
di erences in unemployment rates and wages Because increasing returns to matching create a link between frictions in the labour market and its size workers in the thin labour markets will find it increasingly difficult to match with employers in the bigger more prosperous markets As a
consequence utility will not be equalised across regions and regional di erences will persist ldquoThe economic impact of reducing non-performing loansrdquo (with Alexander Plekhanov and Michel Nies EBRD working paper and a voxeu column 2016) Using newly collected data on non-performing loan (NPL) reduction episodes and policies this paper analyses the problem of NPLs and the burden they impose on the economy Using matching analysis we compare three different scenarios following a rise in NPLs active measures to reduce the stock of NPLs a decline in NPL ratio primarily due to fast growth of new credit and periods when high NPLs persist We find that reducing NPLs has an unambiguously positive medium-term impact on the economy While countries that experience an influx of fresh credit grow the fastest the economies that actively seek to resolve NPLs do comparably well On the other hand when the NPL problem is ignored economic performance suffers the foregone growth due to an overhang of NPLs can be in excess of 2 percentage points annually until the problem is resolved Work in Progress ldquoThe geographic radius of recruitment evidence from newspaper job postingsrdquo ldquoUniversity enrollment and subject choice the role of individual-specific job market frictionsrdquo
Gregorio Curello sitesgooglecomviewgregoriocurello gregoriocurelloeconomicsoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
St Cross College 61 St Gilesrsquo Oxford OX1 3LZ United Kingdom
+44 7 460708580
Undergraduate Studies
BA Mathematics University of Cambridge 2012
Graduate Studies
MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15 with Distinction DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015 to present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Microeconomic Theoryrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2018
References
Professor John K-H Quah Professor Peter Eso
Department of Economics Johns Hopkins University
Department of Economics University of Oxford
+1 410 516 1014 johnquah at jhuedu
+44 1865 281483 petereso at economicsoxacuk
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford
+44 1865 278570 margaretmeyer at nuffieldoxacuk
Teaching and Research Fields
Microeconomic theory dynamic games monotone comparative statics economics of innovation
Teaching and Research Experience
2018 - 2019 1st-year UG Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant at St Hildarsquos College Oxford
2015 - 2018 1st-year UG Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant at Jesus College Oxford
2017 Fall Academic visit to Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences Department Kellogg School of Management Northwestern University Evanston IL
Professional Activities
Referee for the Journal of Economic Theory
Referee for the Journal of Mathematical Economics
Conference Presentations
2018 Econometric Society European Winter Meeting Naples (will present my JMP)
2018 Lisbon Meetings in Game Theory Lisbon (will present my JMP)
2018 ES European Summer Meeting Cologne (presented my JMP)
2018 ES North American Summer Meeting Davis (presented my JMP)
2016 Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory Rio de Janeiro (presented Monotone decision rules and supermodularity)
Honors and Scholarships
2017 - 2018 Final-Year Doctoral Scholarship from the Department of Economics (Oxford)
2014 - 2018 Studentship from the Economic and Social Research Council
2015 - 2018 Godfrey Tyler Scholarship in Economics St Cross College (Oxford)
2015 George Webb Medley Prize for the best performance in written exams (MPhil Economics)
2015 George Webb Medley Prize for the best MPhil thesis
2014 Best performance in written exams (first year of MPhil Economics)
Research Papers
ldquoIncentives for Collective Innovationrdquo (Job Market Paper)
Identical agents exert hidden effort to produce random increments in the stock of a public good and receive a stock- and effort-contingent flow of payoffs I characterise the unique symmetric Markov equilibrium and for the two-agent binary-effort case the payoff-maximising equilibrium when strategies may condition on private histories as well In contrast to the social-welfare benchmark under general conditions continuation payoffs in the symmetric Markov and the best non-Markov equilibria may drop after an increment in the stock In this case reducing the risk of producing negligible increments in favour of moderate ones always reduces ex-ante equilibrium welfare and delaying the disclosure of increments (forgoing their benefits) based on their size is incentive-compatible and welfare-enhancing In the context of an RampD alliance in which improvements in a shared technology raise the incentive to shift resources towards private activities concealing moderate improvements may raise private profits and collective progress
ldquoMonotone Decision Rules and Supermodularityrdquo
I study decision problems under uncertainty involving the choice of a rule mapping states into actions I show that for any rule there exists an increasing rule generating higher expected value for all payoff functions that are supermodular in action and state I present applications to problems of taxation betting and price discrimination in a market with a demand externality I then consider the choice of rules mapping noisy signals of the state into actions I give conditions under which optimal rules are increasing when (a) several agents commit to a shared rule or (b) the relationship between the signal and the state is ambiguous I show that a well-known informativeness criterion applies to these cases
ldquoThe Lattice Structure of Single-Crossingrdquo (in progress) joint with Ludvig Sinander
Most comparisons of preferences are special cases of single-crossing dominance We examine the lattice structure of single-crossing dominance proving characterisation existence and uniqueness results for minimum upper bounds of arbitrary sets of preferences In particular the set of all preferences over a totally-ranked set of alternatives is a complete lattice Using these theorems we characterise a general class of maxmin preferences as precisely minimum upper bounds with respect to lsquomore ambiguity-averse thanrsquo we develop a misspecification-robust theory of monotone comparative statics and one relating to the consensus of a group of agents we characterise when acceptable aggregation of individual preferences is possible in an environment with normative constraints we study the evolution of pro-social behaviour and sharply characterise the population dynamics of pro-sociality
Last updated 29 October 2018
Manuel Fernandez SierraWebsite sitesgooglecomviewmanuelfernandezsierra
Email mfernandezsierraessexacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Admin Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
CONTACTINFORMATION
Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)University of EssexWivenhoe ParkColchester UK CO4 3SQPhone +44 (0)7464291148
PERSONALINFORMATION
Citizenship Colombia US Permanent resident (Green Card)
EDUCATION DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2018MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2014MSc Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2011BA Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2008
REFERENCES Sonia BhalotraProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of EssexColchester C04 3SQ UKPhone +(44) 01206 873700email srbhalessexacuk
Climent Quintana-DomequeProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of ExeterExeter EX4 4PU UKPhone +44 (0) 1392 726105email CQuintana-Domequeexeteracuk
Julian MessinaLead Research EconomistDepartment of Research and Chief EconomistInter-American Development BankWashington DC 20577 USAPhone +(1) 202 942-8211email julianmIADBORG
Simon QuinnAssociate Professor in EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsOxford UniversityOxford OX1 3UQ UKPhone +(44) 01865 271089email simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS Labor Economics Development Economics Health Economics
TEACHINGEXPERIENCE
(Lecturer) Econometrics I Universidad de los Andes 2015(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Graduate) Oxford University 2014 - 2017(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Second Year UG) Oxford University 2017(TA) Advanced Econometrics (Graduate) Universidad de los Andes 2009 - 2010(TA) History of Economic Analysis (UG) Universidad de los Andes 2009
JOURNALARTICLES
Fernandez M and Messina J (2018) Skill Premium Labor Supply and Changes inthe Structure of Wages in Latin America Journal of Development Economics 135pp 555-573
Fernandez M Ibanez A M and Pena X (2014) Adjusting the Labor Supply toMitigate Violent Shocks Evidence from Rural Colombia The Journal of DevelopmentStudies 50(8) pp1135-1155
Fernandez M (2012) Violencia y Derechos de Propiedad El Caso de La Violencia enColombia Ensayos Sobre Polıtica Economica 30(69) pp113-147
RESEARCHPAPERS INPROGRESS
Female Labor Force Participation and the Distribution of the Gender Wage GapJob Market PaperLatest Version
We analyse impacts of the rising labor force participation of women on the distributionof the gender wage gap We formulate an equilibrium model of the labor market inwhich the elasticity of substitution between male and female labor is allowed to varydepending on the task content of occupations We structurally estimate the parametersof the model using household survey data from Mexico between 1989 and 2014 We findthat the elasticity of substitution is higher in high-paying occupations that are intensivein abstract and analytical tasks than in low-paying manual and routine occupationsConsistent with this we find that the sharp rise in female labor force participationgenerated strong downward pressure on the wages of female workers especially in low-paying occupations Demand side trends favoured women and this attenuated thesupply-driven negative pressure on their wages The paper contributes new evidenceon the distribution of the gender wage gap and contributes to a wider literature ontechnological change occupational sorting and wage inequality
Herding in Equity Crowdfundingwith T Astebro S Lovo and N VulkanLatest Version
Do equity crowdfunding investors herd We build a model where informed and unin-formed investors arrive sequentially and choose whether and how much to invest Wetest the model using data of investments on a leading European equity crowdfundingplatform We show theoretically and find empirically that the size and likelihood of apledge is affected positively by the size of the most recent pledges and negatively bythe time elapsed since the most recent pledge The empirical analysis is inconsistentwith naıve herding independent investments or exogenously correlated investments
Job Search Intensity Information Capacity Constraints and the Wage DistributionExtended Abstract
Most research on the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTrsquos)on income inequality has focused on the potential of machines to replace or complementhuman labor I propose an alternative mechanism by which an increase in the qualityand quantity of information that firms can obtain about prospective workers broughtabout by ICT advancements results in higher residual earnings dispersion in a waythat is unrelated to job displacements In the model individuals searching for a joband firms trying to fill a vacancy have information capacity constraints that limit theirability to uncover the potential productivity of the match Within an equilibrium jobsearch framework I show that loosening the information constraints leads to a highervariance of the equilibrium distribution of wages This result arises because firms are
better able to discriminate good and bad matches which directly affects the wagebargaining process
Restricting Access to Health Services Citizens Rights and the Effects of Denying Med-ical Carewith S Bhalotra
Since 2013 more than 16 million complaints were made to the Colombian NationalHealth Superintendence against health insurers for restricting access to medical careservices Over the last decade more than one million legal claims (tutelas) have beenmade to courts by individuals protesting that their right to health was undermined byan insurer We study how these restrictions of access to medical services by insurersaffect their enrolleesrsquo health We construct a panel dataset of insurers in every mu-nicipality of Colombia with yearly information on the number of enrollees complaintstutelas and mortality rates between 2010 and 2016 Our identification strategy usespolicy interventions by the ministry of health that changed the competitive structureof the healthcare system modifying the market power of insurers at the local leveland altering the incentives to compete for enrollees Preliminary results show that anincrease in the number of tutelas or complaints against an insurer is strongly associ-ated with an increase of the overall and cause-specific mortality rates of its enrolleesWe find that the effect is stronger in the subsidized regime which covers the poorestsegments of the population
Gender Debate and Rebellion in the House of Commons 1992 - 2015 A StructuralTopic Modelling Approachwith S Bhalotra and J Slapin
The number of women in the British House of Commons has increased substantiallyover the last quarter century But how has the increasing number of women MPs shapedpolitics in Britain We address this question by examining women MPsrsquo participationin parliamentary debate using transcripts from more than 400000 speeches made inthe House of Commons between 1992 and 2015 In addition to examining whetherwomen participate at a similar rate to their male colleagues we examine whethertheir participation is associated with particular debate topics using a structural topicmodel We find that certain debate topics in parliament are gendered However theprevalence of these topics does not seem to vary over time with the number of womenin parliament Moreover we find that women are underrepresented in parliamentarydebates controlling for party and seat share often even on debates associated withwomenrsquos topics If women MPsrsquo participation shapes policy and impacts politicalrepresentation their underrepresentation in debate may have significant normativeimplications for democracy
BOOKCHAPTERS
Bhalotra S Fernandez M Venkataramani A (2015) The Right Tail and the RightTale Women and Skill in Mexico In S Polanchek K Tasiramos and K Zimmermaneds Gender Convergence in the Labor Market Research in Labor Economics Vol 41Emerald Publishing Group pp 299-341
Fernandez M Hernandez C Ibanez A M and Jaramillo C (2016) DinamicasProvinciales de Pobreza en Colombia 1993-2005 In F Benito and J Berdegue edsLos Dilemas Territoriales del Desarrollo en America Latina Universidad de los Andespp 187-210
OTHEREMPLOYMENT
Senior Research Officer 2017-
Institute for Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of EssexColchester UK
Research Assistant 2010-2012Office of the Chief Economist for Latin AmericaThe World BankWashington DC
PROFESSIONALAFFILIATIONS
Research Affiliate IZA 2018-
PRESENTATIONS Labour and Public Economics Seminar Series Paris School of Economics Fall 2018Economics Department Seminar Series Universidad del Rosario Bogota Fall 2018IZA and World Bank Jobs amp Development Conference Bogota Spring 2018Spanish Economic Association (SAEe) Annual Meetings Barcelona Fall 2017LACEA Annual Meetings Buenos Aires Fall 2017Economics Department Seminar Series University of Essex Colchester Fall 2016Finance Seminar Series University of Oxford Oxford Spring 2016World Bank Workshop on Earnings Inequality Understanding the Trend Reversal ofWage Inequality in LAC Washington DC Fall 2015IZA Workshop on Gender Convergence Why Are Women Becoming More Like Men(and Men More Like Women) in the Labor Market Bonn Spring 2014
INVITED TOREFEREE
Management Science Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Journal of Devel-opment Studies Review of Economics of the Household
AWARDS ANDFELLOWSHIPS
Final-Year Departmental Doctoral Bursary and Graduate Teaching Assistantship Uni-versity of Oxford 2016-2017Economics Department Doctoral Studentship University of Oxford 2014-2016
PROGRAMMING R STATA MATLAB Python LATEX
Last updated October 2018
Simon FranklinLondon School of Economics
Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE +44 (0) 7887795953SFranklin1lseacuk wwwsimonfranklinco
Citizenship South African
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Placement Assistant Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
CURRENT POSITION
London School of Economics 2015 - PresentPostdoctoral Research Economist
EDUCATION
University of OxfordDPhil in Economics 2011- 2015
Thesis Title Essays on Labour Markets Frictions in Developing CountriesEdgeworth Prize for outstanding doctoral thesis
MPhil in Economics (Distinction) 2009-2011George Webb Medley Prize for Best Thesis (proxime accessit)
University of Cape TownBCom (Honours) in Economics (Distinction) 2008
REFERENCES
Professor Marcel FafchampsFreeman Spogli InstituteStanford Universityfafchampstanfordedu
Professor J Vernon HendersonDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentLondon School of Economicsjvhendersonlseacuk
Doctor Gharad BryanDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsgtbryanlseacuk
Professor Robin BurgessDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsrburgesslseacuk
Doctor Simon QuinnDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordsimonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS
Primary DevelopmentSecondary Labour Urban Applied microeconomics
1
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Working Papers ldquoLabour market frictions and regional disparitiesrdquo (2017)
Labour market outcomes di er across regions and these di erences are strongly persistent The aim of this paper is to explain regional disparities and the lack of convergence using labour market frictions The paper draws on two fields New Economic Geography and frictional labour markets I use the idea of thick labour markets to motivate clustering of economic activity and consequently
di erences in unemployment rates and wages Because increasing returns to matching create a link between frictions in the labour market and its size workers in the thin labour markets will find it increasingly difficult to match with employers in the bigger more prosperous markets As a
consequence utility will not be equalised across regions and regional di erences will persist ldquoThe economic impact of reducing non-performing loansrdquo (with Alexander Plekhanov and Michel Nies EBRD working paper and a voxeu column 2016) Using newly collected data on non-performing loan (NPL) reduction episodes and policies this paper analyses the problem of NPLs and the burden they impose on the economy Using matching analysis we compare three different scenarios following a rise in NPLs active measures to reduce the stock of NPLs a decline in NPL ratio primarily due to fast growth of new credit and periods when high NPLs persist We find that reducing NPLs has an unambiguously positive medium-term impact on the economy While countries that experience an influx of fresh credit grow the fastest the economies that actively seek to resolve NPLs do comparably well On the other hand when the NPL problem is ignored economic performance suffers the foregone growth due to an overhang of NPLs can be in excess of 2 percentage points annually until the problem is resolved Work in Progress ldquoThe geographic radius of recruitment evidence from newspaper job postingsrdquo ldquoUniversity enrollment and subject choice the role of individual-specific job market frictionsrdquo
Gregorio Curello sitesgooglecomviewgregoriocurello gregoriocurelloeconomicsoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
St Cross College 61 St Gilesrsquo Oxford OX1 3LZ United Kingdom
+44 7 460708580
Undergraduate Studies
BA Mathematics University of Cambridge 2012
Graduate Studies
MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15 with Distinction DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015 to present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Microeconomic Theoryrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2018
References
Professor John K-H Quah Professor Peter Eso
Department of Economics Johns Hopkins University
Department of Economics University of Oxford
+1 410 516 1014 johnquah at jhuedu
+44 1865 281483 petereso at economicsoxacuk
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford
+44 1865 278570 margaretmeyer at nuffieldoxacuk
Teaching and Research Fields
Microeconomic theory dynamic games monotone comparative statics economics of innovation
Teaching and Research Experience
2018 - 2019 1st-year UG Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant at St Hildarsquos College Oxford
2015 - 2018 1st-year UG Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant at Jesus College Oxford
2017 Fall Academic visit to Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences Department Kellogg School of Management Northwestern University Evanston IL
Professional Activities
Referee for the Journal of Economic Theory
Referee for the Journal of Mathematical Economics
Conference Presentations
2018 Econometric Society European Winter Meeting Naples (will present my JMP)
2018 Lisbon Meetings in Game Theory Lisbon (will present my JMP)
2018 ES European Summer Meeting Cologne (presented my JMP)
2018 ES North American Summer Meeting Davis (presented my JMP)
2016 Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory Rio de Janeiro (presented Monotone decision rules and supermodularity)
Honors and Scholarships
2017 - 2018 Final-Year Doctoral Scholarship from the Department of Economics (Oxford)
2014 - 2018 Studentship from the Economic and Social Research Council
2015 - 2018 Godfrey Tyler Scholarship in Economics St Cross College (Oxford)
2015 George Webb Medley Prize for the best performance in written exams (MPhil Economics)
2015 George Webb Medley Prize for the best MPhil thesis
2014 Best performance in written exams (first year of MPhil Economics)
Research Papers
ldquoIncentives for Collective Innovationrdquo (Job Market Paper)
Identical agents exert hidden effort to produce random increments in the stock of a public good and receive a stock- and effort-contingent flow of payoffs I characterise the unique symmetric Markov equilibrium and for the two-agent binary-effort case the payoff-maximising equilibrium when strategies may condition on private histories as well In contrast to the social-welfare benchmark under general conditions continuation payoffs in the symmetric Markov and the best non-Markov equilibria may drop after an increment in the stock In this case reducing the risk of producing negligible increments in favour of moderate ones always reduces ex-ante equilibrium welfare and delaying the disclosure of increments (forgoing their benefits) based on their size is incentive-compatible and welfare-enhancing In the context of an RampD alliance in which improvements in a shared technology raise the incentive to shift resources towards private activities concealing moderate improvements may raise private profits and collective progress
ldquoMonotone Decision Rules and Supermodularityrdquo
I study decision problems under uncertainty involving the choice of a rule mapping states into actions I show that for any rule there exists an increasing rule generating higher expected value for all payoff functions that are supermodular in action and state I present applications to problems of taxation betting and price discrimination in a market with a demand externality I then consider the choice of rules mapping noisy signals of the state into actions I give conditions under which optimal rules are increasing when (a) several agents commit to a shared rule or (b) the relationship between the signal and the state is ambiguous I show that a well-known informativeness criterion applies to these cases
ldquoThe Lattice Structure of Single-Crossingrdquo (in progress) joint with Ludvig Sinander
Most comparisons of preferences are special cases of single-crossing dominance We examine the lattice structure of single-crossing dominance proving characterisation existence and uniqueness results for minimum upper bounds of arbitrary sets of preferences In particular the set of all preferences over a totally-ranked set of alternatives is a complete lattice Using these theorems we characterise a general class of maxmin preferences as precisely minimum upper bounds with respect to lsquomore ambiguity-averse thanrsquo we develop a misspecification-robust theory of monotone comparative statics and one relating to the consensus of a group of agents we characterise when acceptable aggregation of individual preferences is possible in an environment with normative constraints we study the evolution of pro-social behaviour and sharply characterise the population dynamics of pro-sociality
Last updated 29 October 2018
Manuel Fernandez SierraWebsite sitesgooglecomviewmanuelfernandezsierra
Email mfernandezsierraessexacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Admin Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
CONTACTINFORMATION
Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)University of EssexWivenhoe ParkColchester UK CO4 3SQPhone +44 (0)7464291148
PERSONALINFORMATION
Citizenship Colombia US Permanent resident (Green Card)
EDUCATION DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2018MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2014MSc Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2011BA Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2008
REFERENCES Sonia BhalotraProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of EssexColchester C04 3SQ UKPhone +(44) 01206 873700email srbhalessexacuk
Climent Quintana-DomequeProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of ExeterExeter EX4 4PU UKPhone +44 (0) 1392 726105email CQuintana-Domequeexeteracuk
Julian MessinaLead Research EconomistDepartment of Research and Chief EconomistInter-American Development BankWashington DC 20577 USAPhone +(1) 202 942-8211email julianmIADBORG
Simon QuinnAssociate Professor in EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsOxford UniversityOxford OX1 3UQ UKPhone +(44) 01865 271089email simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS Labor Economics Development Economics Health Economics
TEACHINGEXPERIENCE
(Lecturer) Econometrics I Universidad de los Andes 2015(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Graduate) Oxford University 2014 - 2017(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Second Year UG) Oxford University 2017(TA) Advanced Econometrics (Graduate) Universidad de los Andes 2009 - 2010(TA) History of Economic Analysis (UG) Universidad de los Andes 2009
JOURNALARTICLES
Fernandez M and Messina J (2018) Skill Premium Labor Supply and Changes inthe Structure of Wages in Latin America Journal of Development Economics 135pp 555-573
Fernandez M Ibanez A M and Pena X (2014) Adjusting the Labor Supply toMitigate Violent Shocks Evidence from Rural Colombia The Journal of DevelopmentStudies 50(8) pp1135-1155
Fernandez M (2012) Violencia y Derechos de Propiedad El Caso de La Violencia enColombia Ensayos Sobre Polıtica Economica 30(69) pp113-147
RESEARCHPAPERS INPROGRESS
Female Labor Force Participation and the Distribution of the Gender Wage GapJob Market PaperLatest Version
We analyse impacts of the rising labor force participation of women on the distributionof the gender wage gap We formulate an equilibrium model of the labor market inwhich the elasticity of substitution between male and female labor is allowed to varydepending on the task content of occupations We structurally estimate the parametersof the model using household survey data from Mexico between 1989 and 2014 We findthat the elasticity of substitution is higher in high-paying occupations that are intensivein abstract and analytical tasks than in low-paying manual and routine occupationsConsistent with this we find that the sharp rise in female labor force participationgenerated strong downward pressure on the wages of female workers especially in low-paying occupations Demand side trends favoured women and this attenuated thesupply-driven negative pressure on their wages The paper contributes new evidenceon the distribution of the gender wage gap and contributes to a wider literature ontechnological change occupational sorting and wage inequality
Herding in Equity Crowdfundingwith T Astebro S Lovo and N VulkanLatest Version
Do equity crowdfunding investors herd We build a model where informed and unin-formed investors arrive sequentially and choose whether and how much to invest Wetest the model using data of investments on a leading European equity crowdfundingplatform We show theoretically and find empirically that the size and likelihood of apledge is affected positively by the size of the most recent pledges and negatively bythe time elapsed since the most recent pledge The empirical analysis is inconsistentwith naıve herding independent investments or exogenously correlated investments
Job Search Intensity Information Capacity Constraints and the Wage DistributionExtended Abstract
Most research on the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTrsquos)on income inequality has focused on the potential of machines to replace or complementhuman labor I propose an alternative mechanism by which an increase in the qualityand quantity of information that firms can obtain about prospective workers broughtabout by ICT advancements results in higher residual earnings dispersion in a waythat is unrelated to job displacements In the model individuals searching for a joband firms trying to fill a vacancy have information capacity constraints that limit theirability to uncover the potential productivity of the match Within an equilibrium jobsearch framework I show that loosening the information constraints leads to a highervariance of the equilibrium distribution of wages This result arises because firms are
better able to discriminate good and bad matches which directly affects the wagebargaining process
Restricting Access to Health Services Citizens Rights and the Effects of Denying Med-ical Carewith S Bhalotra
Since 2013 more than 16 million complaints were made to the Colombian NationalHealth Superintendence against health insurers for restricting access to medical careservices Over the last decade more than one million legal claims (tutelas) have beenmade to courts by individuals protesting that their right to health was undermined byan insurer We study how these restrictions of access to medical services by insurersaffect their enrolleesrsquo health We construct a panel dataset of insurers in every mu-nicipality of Colombia with yearly information on the number of enrollees complaintstutelas and mortality rates between 2010 and 2016 Our identification strategy usespolicy interventions by the ministry of health that changed the competitive structureof the healthcare system modifying the market power of insurers at the local leveland altering the incentives to compete for enrollees Preliminary results show that anincrease in the number of tutelas or complaints against an insurer is strongly associ-ated with an increase of the overall and cause-specific mortality rates of its enrolleesWe find that the effect is stronger in the subsidized regime which covers the poorestsegments of the population
Gender Debate and Rebellion in the House of Commons 1992 - 2015 A StructuralTopic Modelling Approachwith S Bhalotra and J Slapin
The number of women in the British House of Commons has increased substantiallyover the last quarter century But how has the increasing number of women MPs shapedpolitics in Britain We address this question by examining women MPsrsquo participationin parliamentary debate using transcripts from more than 400000 speeches made inthe House of Commons between 1992 and 2015 In addition to examining whetherwomen participate at a similar rate to their male colleagues we examine whethertheir participation is associated with particular debate topics using a structural topicmodel We find that certain debate topics in parliament are gendered However theprevalence of these topics does not seem to vary over time with the number of womenin parliament Moreover we find that women are underrepresented in parliamentarydebates controlling for party and seat share often even on debates associated withwomenrsquos topics If women MPsrsquo participation shapes policy and impacts politicalrepresentation their underrepresentation in debate may have significant normativeimplications for democracy
BOOKCHAPTERS
Bhalotra S Fernandez M Venkataramani A (2015) The Right Tail and the RightTale Women and Skill in Mexico In S Polanchek K Tasiramos and K Zimmermaneds Gender Convergence in the Labor Market Research in Labor Economics Vol 41Emerald Publishing Group pp 299-341
Fernandez M Hernandez C Ibanez A M and Jaramillo C (2016) DinamicasProvinciales de Pobreza en Colombia 1993-2005 In F Benito and J Berdegue edsLos Dilemas Territoriales del Desarrollo en America Latina Universidad de los Andespp 187-210
OTHEREMPLOYMENT
Senior Research Officer 2017-
Institute for Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of EssexColchester UK
Research Assistant 2010-2012Office of the Chief Economist for Latin AmericaThe World BankWashington DC
PROFESSIONALAFFILIATIONS
Research Affiliate IZA 2018-
PRESENTATIONS Labour and Public Economics Seminar Series Paris School of Economics Fall 2018Economics Department Seminar Series Universidad del Rosario Bogota Fall 2018IZA and World Bank Jobs amp Development Conference Bogota Spring 2018Spanish Economic Association (SAEe) Annual Meetings Barcelona Fall 2017LACEA Annual Meetings Buenos Aires Fall 2017Economics Department Seminar Series University of Essex Colchester Fall 2016Finance Seminar Series University of Oxford Oxford Spring 2016World Bank Workshop on Earnings Inequality Understanding the Trend Reversal ofWage Inequality in LAC Washington DC Fall 2015IZA Workshop on Gender Convergence Why Are Women Becoming More Like Men(and Men More Like Women) in the Labor Market Bonn Spring 2014
INVITED TOREFEREE
Management Science Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Journal of Devel-opment Studies Review of Economics of the Household
AWARDS ANDFELLOWSHIPS
Final-Year Departmental Doctoral Bursary and Graduate Teaching Assistantship Uni-versity of Oxford 2016-2017Economics Department Doctoral Studentship University of Oxford 2014-2016
PROGRAMMING R STATA MATLAB Python LATEX
Last updated October 2018
Simon FranklinLondon School of Economics
Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE +44 (0) 7887795953SFranklin1lseacuk wwwsimonfranklinco
Citizenship South African
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Placement Assistant Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
CURRENT POSITION
London School of Economics 2015 - PresentPostdoctoral Research Economist
EDUCATION
University of OxfordDPhil in Economics 2011- 2015
Thesis Title Essays on Labour Markets Frictions in Developing CountriesEdgeworth Prize for outstanding doctoral thesis
MPhil in Economics (Distinction) 2009-2011George Webb Medley Prize for Best Thesis (proxime accessit)
University of Cape TownBCom (Honours) in Economics (Distinction) 2008
REFERENCES
Professor Marcel FafchampsFreeman Spogli InstituteStanford Universityfafchampstanfordedu
Professor J Vernon HendersonDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentLondon School of Economicsjvhendersonlseacuk
Doctor Gharad BryanDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsgtbryanlseacuk
Professor Robin BurgessDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsrburgesslseacuk
Doctor Simon QuinnDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordsimonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS
Primary DevelopmentSecondary Labour Urban Applied microeconomics
1
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Gregorio Curello sitesgooglecomviewgregoriocurello gregoriocurelloeconomicsoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
St Cross College 61 St Gilesrsquo Oxford OX1 3LZ United Kingdom
+44 7 460708580
Undergraduate Studies
BA Mathematics University of Cambridge 2012
Graduate Studies
MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15 with Distinction DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015 to present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Microeconomic Theoryrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2018
References
Professor John K-H Quah Professor Peter Eso
Department of Economics Johns Hopkins University
Department of Economics University of Oxford
+1 410 516 1014 johnquah at jhuedu
+44 1865 281483 petereso at economicsoxacuk
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford
+44 1865 278570 margaretmeyer at nuffieldoxacuk
Teaching and Research Fields
Microeconomic theory dynamic games monotone comparative statics economics of innovation
Teaching and Research Experience
2018 - 2019 1st-year UG Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant at St Hildarsquos College Oxford
2015 - 2018 1st-year UG Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant at Jesus College Oxford
2017 Fall Academic visit to Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences Department Kellogg School of Management Northwestern University Evanston IL
Professional Activities
Referee for the Journal of Economic Theory
Referee for the Journal of Mathematical Economics
Conference Presentations
2018 Econometric Society European Winter Meeting Naples (will present my JMP)
2018 Lisbon Meetings in Game Theory Lisbon (will present my JMP)
2018 ES European Summer Meeting Cologne (presented my JMP)
2018 ES North American Summer Meeting Davis (presented my JMP)
2016 Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory Rio de Janeiro (presented Monotone decision rules and supermodularity)
Honors and Scholarships
2017 - 2018 Final-Year Doctoral Scholarship from the Department of Economics (Oxford)
2014 - 2018 Studentship from the Economic and Social Research Council
2015 - 2018 Godfrey Tyler Scholarship in Economics St Cross College (Oxford)
2015 George Webb Medley Prize for the best performance in written exams (MPhil Economics)
2015 George Webb Medley Prize for the best MPhil thesis
2014 Best performance in written exams (first year of MPhil Economics)
Research Papers
ldquoIncentives for Collective Innovationrdquo (Job Market Paper)
Identical agents exert hidden effort to produce random increments in the stock of a public good and receive a stock- and effort-contingent flow of payoffs I characterise the unique symmetric Markov equilibrium and for the two-agent binary-effort case the payoff-maximising equilibrium when strategies may condition on private histories as well In contrast to the social-welfare benchmark under general conditions continuation payoffs in the symmetric Markov and the best non-Markov equilibria may drop after an increment in the stock In this case reducing the risk of producing negligible increments in favour of moderate ones always reduces ex-ante equilibrium welfare and delaying the disclosure of increments (forgoing their benefits) based on their size is incentive-compatible and welfare-enhancing In the context of an RampD alliance in which improvements in a shared technology raise the incentive to shift resources towards private activities concealing moderate improvements may raise private profits and collective progress
ldquoMonotone Decision Rules and Supermodularityrdquo
I study decision problems under uncertainty involving the choice of a rule mapping states into actions I show that for any rule there exists an increasing rule generating higher expected value for all payoff functions that are supermodular in action and state I present applications to problems of taxation betting and price discrimination in a market with a demand externality I then consider the choice of rules mapping noisy signals of the state into actions I give conditions under which optimal rules are increasing when (a) several agents commit to a shared rule or (b) the relationship between the signal and the state is ambiguous I show that a well-known informativeness criterion applies to these cases
ldquoThe Lattice Structure of Single-Crossingrdquo (in progress) joint with Ludvig Sinander
Most comparisons of preferences are special cases of single-crossing dominance We examine the lattice structure of single-crossing dominance proving characterisation existence and uniqueness results for minimum upper bounds of arbitrary sets of preferences In particular the set of all preferences over a totally-ranked set of alternatives is a complete lattice Using these theorems we characterise a general class of maxmin preferences as precisely minimum upper bounds with respect to lsquomore ambiguity-averse thanrsquo we develop a misspecification-robust theory of monotone comparative statics and one relating to the consensus of a group of agents we characterise when acceptable aggregation of individual preferences is possible in an environment with normative constraints we study the evolution of pro-social behaviour and sharply characterise the population dynamics of pro-sociality
Last updated 29 October 2018
Manuel Fernandez SierraWebsite sitesgooglecomviewmanuelfernandezsierra
Email mfernandezsierraessexacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Admin Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
CONTACTINFORMATION
Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)University of EssexWivenhoe ParkColchester UK CO4 3SQPhone +44 (0)7464291148
PERSONALINFORMATION
Citizenship Colombia US Permanent resident (Green Card)
EDUCATION DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2018MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2014MSc Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2011BA Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2008
REFERENCES Sonia BhalotraProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of EssexColchester C04 3SQ UKPhone +(44) 01206 873700email srbhalessexacuk
Climent Quintana-DomequeProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of ExeterExeter EX4 4PU UKPhone +44 (0) 1392 726105email CQuintana-Domequeexeteracuk
Julian MessinaLead Research EconomistDepartment of Research and Chief EconomistInter-American Development BankWashington DC 20577 USAPhone +(1) 202 942-8211email julianmIADBORG
Simon QuinnAssociate Professor in EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsOxford UniversityOxford OX1 3UQ UKPhone +(44) 01865 271089email simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS Labor Economics Development Economics Health Economics
TEACHINGEXPERIENCE
(Lecturer) Econometrics I Universidad de los Andes 2015(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Graduate) Oxford University 2014 - 2017(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Second Year UG) Oxford University 2017(TA) Advanced Econometrics (Graduate) Universidad de los Andes 2009 - 2010(TA) History of Economic Analysis (UG) Universidad de los Andes 2009
JOURNALARTICLES
Fernandez M and Messina J (2018) Skill Premium Labor Supply and Changes inthe Structure of Wages in Latin America Journal of Development Economics 135pp 555-573
Fernandez M Ibanez A M and Pena X (2014) Adjusting the Labor Supply toMitigate Violent Shocks Evidence from Rural Colombia The Journal of DevelopmentStudies 50(8) pp1135-1155
Fernandez M (2012) Violencia y Derechos de Propiedad El Caso de La Violencia enColombia Ensayos Sobre Polıtica Economica 30(69) pp113-147
RESEARCHPAPERS INPROGRESS
Female Labor Force Participation and the Distribution of the Gender Wage GapJob Market PaperLatest Version
We analyse impacts of the rising labor force participation of women on the distributionof the gender wage gap We formulate an equilibrium model of the labor market inwhich the elasticity of substitution between male and female labor is allowed to varydepending on the task content of occupations We structurally estimate the parametersof the model using household survey data from Mexico between 1989 and 2014 We findthat the elasticity of substitution is higher in high-paying occupations that are intensivein abstract and analytical tasks than in low-paying manual and routine occupationsConsistent with this we find that the sharp rise in female labor force participationgenerated strong downward pressure on the wages of female workers especially in low-paying occupations Demand side trends favoured women and this attenuated thesupply-driven negative pressure on their wages The paper contributes new evidenceon the distribution of the gender wage gap and contributes to a wider literature ontechnological change occupational sorting and wage inequality
Herding in Equity Crowdfundingwith T Astebro S Lovo and N VulkanLatest Version
Do equity crowdfunding investors herd We build a model where informed and unin-formed investors arrive sequentially and choose whether and how much to invest Wetest the model using data of investments on a leading European equity crowdfundingplatform We show theoretically and find empirically that the size and likelihood of apledge is affected positively by the size of the most recent pledges and negatively bythe time elapsed since the most recent pledge The empirical analysis is inconsistentwith naıve herding independent investments or exogenously correlated investments
Job Search Intensity Information Capacity Constraints and the Wage DistributionExtended Abstract
Most research on the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTrsquos)on income inequality has focused on the potential of machines to replace or complementhuman labor I propose an alternative mechanism by which an increase in the qualityand quantity of information that firms can obtain about prospective workers broughtabout by ICT advancements results in higher residual earnings dispersion in a waythat is unrelated to job displacements In the model individuals searching for a joband firms trying to fill a vacancy have information capacity constraints that limit theirability to uncover the potential productivity of the match Within an equilibrium jobsearch framework I show that loosening the information constraints leads to a highervariance of the equilibrium distribution of wages This result arises because firms are
better able to discriminate good and bad matches which directly affects the wagebargaining process
Restricting Access to Health Services Citizens Rights and the Effects of Denying Med-ical Carewith S Bhalotra
Since 2013 more than 16 million complaints were made to the Colombian NationalHealth Superintendence against health insurers for restricting access to medical careservices Over the last decade more than one million legal claims (tutelas) have beenmade to courts by individuals protesting that their right to health was undermined byan insurer We study how these restrictions of access to medical services by insurersaffect their enrolleesrsquo health We construct a panel dataset of insurers in every mu-nicipality of Colombia with yearly information on the number of enrollees complaintstutelas and mortality rates between 2010 and 2016 Our identification strategy usespolicy interventions by the ministry of health that changed the competitive structureof the healthcare system modifying the market power of insurers at the local leveland altering the incentives to compete for enrollees Preliminary results show that anincrease in the number of tutelas or complaints against an insurer is strongly associ-ated with an increase of the overall and cause-specific mortality rates of its enrolleesWe find that the effect is stronger in the subsidized regime which covers the poorestsegments of the population
Gender Debate and Rebellion in the House of Commons 1992 - 2015 A StructuralTopic Modelling Approachwith S Bhalotra and J Slapin
The number of women in the British House of Commons has increased substantiallyover the last quarter century But how has the increasing number of women MPs shapedpolitics in Britain We address this question by examining women MPsrsquo participationin parliamentary debate using transcripts from more than 400000 speeches made inthe House of Commons between 1992 and 2015 In addition to examining whetherwomen participate at a similar rate to their male colleagues we examine whethertheir participation is associated with particular debate topics using a structural topicmodel We find that certain debate topics in parliament are gendered However theprevalence of these topics does not seem to vary over time with the number of womenin parliament Moreover we find that women are underrepresented in parliamentarydebates controlling for party and seat share often even on debates associated withwomenrsquos topics If women MPsrsquo participation shapes policy and impacts politicalrepresentation their underrepresentation in debate may have significant normativeimplications for democracy
BOOKCHAPTERS
Bhalotra S Fernandez M Venkataramani A (2015) The Right Tail and the RightTale Women and Skill in Mexico In S Polanchek K Tasiramos and K Zimmermaneds Gender Convergence in the Labor Market Research in Labor Economics Vol 41Emerald Publishing Group pp 299-341
Fernandez M Hernandez C Ibanez A M and Jaramillo C (2016) DinamicasProvinciales de Pobreza en Colombia 1993-2005 In F Benito and J Berdegue edsLos Dilemas Territoriales del Desarrollo en America Latina Universidad de los Andespp 187-210
OTHEREMPLOYMENT
Senior Research Officer 2017-
Institute for Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of EssexColchester UK
Research Assistant 2010-2012Office of the Chief Economist for Latin AmericaThe World BankWashington DC
PROFESSIONALAFFILIATIONS
Research Affiliate IZA 2018-
PRESENTATIONS Labour and Public Economics Seminar Series Paris School of Economics Fall 2018Economics Department Seminar Series Universidad del Rosario Bogota Fall 2018IZA and World Bank Jobs amp Development Conference Bogota Spring 2018Spanish Economic Association (SAEe) Annual Meetings Barcelona Fall 2017LACEA Annual Meetings Buenos Aires Fall 2017Economics Department Seminar Series University of Essex Colchester Fall 2016Finance Seminar Series University of Oxford Oxford Spring 2016World Bank Workshop on Earnings Inequality Understanding the Trend Reversal ofWage Inequality in LAC Washington DC Fall 2015IZA Workshop on Gender Convergence Why Are Women Becoming More Like Men(and Men More Like Women) in the Labor Market Bonn Spring 2014
INVITED TOREFEREE
Management Science Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Journal of Devel-opment Studies Review of Economics of the Household
AWARDS ANDFELLOWSHIPS
Final-Year Departmental Doctoral Bursary and Graduate Teaching Assistantship Uni-versity of Oxford 2016-2017Economics Department Doctoral Studentship University of Oxford 2014-2016
PROGRAMMING R STATA MATLAB Python LATEX
Last updated October 2018
Simon FranklinLondon School of Economics
Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE +44 (0) 7887795953SFranklin1lseacuk wwwsimonfranklinco
Citizenship South African
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Placement Assistant Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
CURRENT POSITION
London School of Economics 2015 - PresentPostdoctoral Research Economist
EDUCATION
University of OxfordDPhil in Economics 2011- 2015
Thesis Title Essays on Labour Markets Frictions in Developing CountriesEdgeworth Prize for outstanding doctoral thesis
MPhil in Economics (Distinction) 2009-2011George Webb Medley Prize for Best Thesis (proxime accessit)
University of Cape TownBCom (Honours) in Economics (Distinction) 2008
REFERENCES
Professor Marcel FafchampsFreeman Spogli InstituteStanford Universityfafchampstanfordedu
Professor J Vernon HendersonDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentLondon School of Economicsjvhendersonlseacuk
Doctor Gharad BryanDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsgtbryanlseacuk
Professor Robin BurgessDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsrburgesslseacuk
Doctor Simon QuinnDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordsimonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS
Primary DevelopmentSecondary Labour Urban Applied microeconomics
1
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Teaching and Research Fields
Microeconomic theory dynamic games monotone comparative statics economics of innovation
Teaching and Research Experience
2018 - 2019 1st-year UG Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant at St Hildarsquos College Oxford
2015 - 2018 1st-year UG Economics Graduate Teaching Assistant at Jesus College Oxford
2017 Fall Academic visit to Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences Department Kellogg School of Management Northwestern University Evanston IL
Professional Activities
Referee for the Journal of Economic Theory
Referee for the Journal of Mathematical Economics
Conference Presentations
2018 Econometric Society European Winter Meeting Naples (will present my JMP)
2018 Lisbon Meetings in Game Theory Lisbon (will present my JMP)
2018 ES European Summer Meeting Cologne (presented my JMP)
2018 ES North American Summer Meeting Davis (presented my JMP)
2016 Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory Rio de Janeiro (presented Monotone decision rules and supermodularity)
Honors and Scholarships
2017 - 2018 Final-Year Doctoral Scholarship from the Department of Economics (Oxford)
2014 - 2018 Studentship from the Economic and Social Research Council
2015 - 2018 Godfrey Tyler Scholarship in Economics St Cross College (Oxford)
2015 George Webb Medley Prize for the best performance in written exams (MPhil Economics)
2015 George Webb Medley Prize for the best MPhil thesis
2014 Best performance in written exams (first year of MPhil Economics)
Research Papers
ldquoIncentives for Collective Innovationrdquo (Job Market Paper)
Identical agents exert hidden effort to produce random increments in the stock of a public good and receive a stock- and effort-contingent flow of payoffs I characterise the unique symmetric Markov equilibrium and for the two-agent binary-effort case the payoff-maximising equilibrium when strategies may condition on private histories as well In contrast to the social-welfare benchmark under general conditions continuation payoffs in the symmetric Markov and the best non-Markov equilibria may drop after an increment in the stock In this case reducing the risk of producing negligible increments in favour of moderate ones always reduces ex-ante equilibrium welfare and delaying the disclosure of increments (forgoing their benefits) based on their size is incentive-compatible and welfare-enhancing In the context of an RampD alliance in which improvements in a shared technology raise the incentive to shift resources towards private activities concealing moderate improvements may raise private profits and collective progress
ldquoMonotone Decision Rules and Supermodularityrdquo
I study decision problems under uncertainty involving the choice of a rule mapping states into actions I show that for any rule there exists an increasing rule generating higher expected value for all payoff functions that are supermodular in action and state I present applications to problems of taxation betting and price discrimination in a market with a demand externality I then consider the choice of rules mapping noisy signals of the state into actions I give conditions under which optimal rules are increasing when (a) several agents commit to a shared rule or (b) the relationship between the signal and the state is ambiguous I show that a well-known informativeness criterion applies to these cases
ldquoThe Lattice Structure of Single-Crossingrdquo (in progress) joint with Ludvig Sinander
Most comparisons of preferences are special cases of single-crossing dominance We examine the lattice structure of single-crossing dominance proving characterisation existence and uniqueness results for minimum upper bounds of arbitrary sets of preferences In particular the set of all preferences over a totally-ranked set of alternatives is a complete lattice Using these theorems we characterise a general class of maxmin preferences as precisely minimum upper bounds with respect to lsquomore ambiguity-averse thanrsquo we develop a misspecification-robust theory of monotone comparative statics and one relating to the consensus of a group of agents we characterise when acceptable aggregation of individual preferences is possible in an environment with normative constraints we study the evolution of pro-social behaviour and sharply characterise the population dynamics of pro-sociality
Last updated 29 October 2018
Manuel Fernandez SierraWebsite sitesgooglecomviewmanuelfernandezsierra
Email mfernandezsierraessexacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Admin Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
CONTACTINFORMATION
Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)University of EssexWivenhoe ParkColchester UK CO4 3SQPhone +44 (0)7464291148
PERSONALINFORMATION
Citizenship Colombia US Permanent resident (Green Card)
EDUCATION DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2018MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2014MSc Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2011BA Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2008
REFERENCES Sonia BhalotraProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of EssexColchester C04 3SQ UKPhone +(44) 01206 873700email srbhalessexacuk
Climent Quintana-DomequeProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of ExeterExeter EX4 4PU UKPhone +44 (0) 1392 726105email CQuintana-Domequeexeteracuk
Julian MessinaLead Research EconomistDepartment of Research and Chief EconomistInter-American Development BankWashington DC 20577 USAPhone +(1) 202 942-8211email julianmIADBORG
Simon QuinnAssociate Professor in EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsOxford UniversityOxford OX1 3UQ UKPhone +(44) 01865 271089email simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS Labor Economics Development Economics Health Economics
TEACHINGEXPERIENCE
(Lecturer) Econometrics I Universidad de los Andes 2015(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Graduate) Oxford University 2014 - 2017(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Second Year UG) Oxford University 2017(TA) Advanced Econometrics (Graduate) Universidad de los Andes 2009 - 2010(TA) History of Economic Analysis (UG) Universidad de los Andes 2009
JOURNALARTICLES
Fernandez M and Messina J (2018) Skill Premium Labor Supply and Changes inthe Structure of Wages in Latin America Journal of Development Economics 135pp 555-573
Fernandez M Ibanez A M and Pena X (2014) Adjusting the Labor Supply toMitigate Violent Shocks Evidence from Rural Colombia The Journal of DevelopmentStudies 50(8) pp1135-1155
Fernandez M (2012) Violencia y Derechos de Propiedad El Caso de La Violencia enColombia Ensayos Sobre Polıtica Economica 30(69) pp113-147
RESEARCHPAPERS INPROGRESS
Female Labor Force Participation and the Distribution of the Gender Wage GapJob Market PaperLatest Version
We analyse impacts of the rising labor force participation of women on the distributionof the gender wage gap We formulate an equilibrium model of the labor market inwhich the elasticity of substitution between male and female labor is allowed to varydepending on the task content of occupations We structurally estimate the parametersof the model using household survey data from Mexico between 1989 and 2014 We findthat the elasticity of substitution is higher in high-paying occupations that are intensivein abstract and analytical tasks than in low-paying manual and routine occupationsConsistent with this we find that the sharp rise in female labor force participationgenerated strong downward pressure on the wages of female workers especially in low-paying occupations Demand side trends favoured women and this attenuated thesupply-driven negative pressure on their wages The paper contributes new evidenceon the distribution of the gender wage gap and contributes to a wider literature ontechnological change occupational sorting and wage inequality
Herding in Equity Crowdfundingwith T Astebro S Lovo and N VulkanLatest Version
Do equity crowdfunding investors herd We build a model where informed and unin-formed investors arrive sequentially and choose whether and how much to invest Wetest the model using data of investments on a leading European equity crowdfundingplatform We show theoretically and find empirically that the size and likelihood of apledge is affected positively by the size of the most recent pledges and negatively bythe time elapsed since the most recent pledge The empirical analysis is inconsistentwith naıve herding independent investments or exogenously correlated investments
Job Search Intensity Information Capacity Constraints and the Wage DistributionExtended Abstract
Most research on the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTrsquos)on income inequality has focused on the potential of machines to replace or complementhuman labor I propose an alternative mechanism by which an increase in the qualityand quantity of information that firms can obtain about prospective workers broughtabout by ICT advancements results in higher residual earnings dispersion in a waythat is unrelated to job displacements In the model individuals searching for a joband firms trying to fill a vacancy have information capacity constraints that limit theirability to uncover the potential productivity of the match Within an equilibrium jobsearch framework I show that loosening the information constraints leads to a highervariance of the equilibrium distribution of wages This result arises because firms are
better able to discriminate good and bad matches which directly affects the wagebargaining process
Restricting Access to Health Services Citizens Rights and the Effects of Denying Med-ical Carewith S Bhalotra
Since 2013 more than 16 million complaints were made to the Colombian NationalHealth Superintendence against health insurers for restricting access to medical careservices Over the last decade more than one million legal claims (tutelas) have beenmade to courts by individuals protesting that their right to health was undermined byan insurer We study how these restrictions of access to medical services by insurersaffect their enrolleesrsquo health We construct a panel dataset of insurers in every mu-nicipality of Colombia with yearly information on the number of enrollees complaintstutelas and mortality rates between 2010 and 2016 Our identification strategy usespolicy interventions by the ministry of health that changed the competitive structureof the healthcare system modifying the market power of insurers at the local leveland altering the incentives to compete for enrollees Preliminary results show that anincrease in the number of tutelas or complaints against an insurer is strongly associ-ated with an increase of the overall and cause-specific mortality rates of its enrolleesWe find that the effect is stronger in the subsidized regime which covers the poorestsegments of the population
Gender Debate and Rebellion in the House of Commons 1992 - 2015 A StructuralTopic Modelling Approachwith S Bhalotra and J Slapin
The number of women in the British House of Commons has increased substantiallyover the last quarter century But how has the increasing number of women MPs shapedpolitics in Britain We address this question by examining women MPsrsquo participationin parliamentary debate using transcripts from more than 400000 speeches made inthe House of Commons between 1992 and 2015 In addition to examining whetherwomen participate at a similar rate to their male colleagues we examine whethertheir participation is associated with particular debate topics using a structural topicmodel We find that certain debate topics in parliament are gendered However theprevalence of these topics does not seem to vary over time with the number of womenin parliament Moreover we find that women are underrepresented in parliamentarydebates controlling for party and seat share often even on debates associated withwomenrsquos topics If women MPsrsquo participation shapes policy and impacts politicalrepresentation their underrepresentation in debate may have significant normativeimplications for democracy
BOOKCHAPTERS
Bhalotra S Fernandez M Venkataramani A (2015) The Right Tail and the RightTale Women and Skill in Mexico In S Polanchek K Tasiramos and K Zimmermaneds Gender Convergence in the Labor Market Research in Labor Economics Vol 41Emerald Publishing Group pp 299-341
Fernandez M Hernandez C Ibanez A M and Jaramillo C (2016) DinamicasProvinciales de Pobreza en Colombia 1993-2005 In F Benito and J Berdegue edsLos Dilemas Territoriales del Desarrollo en America Latina Universidad de los Andespp 187-210
OTHEREMPLOYMENT
Senior Research Officer 2017-
Institute for Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of EssexColchester UK
Research Assistant 2010-2012Office of the Chief Economist for Latin AmericaThe World BankWashington DC
PROFESSIONALAFFILIATIONS
Research Affiliate IZA 2018-
PRESENTATIONS Labour and Public Economics Seminar Series Paris School of Economics Fall 2018Economics Department Seminar Series Universidad del Rosario Bogota Fall 2018IZA and World Bank Jobs amp Development Conference Bogota Spring 2018Spanish Economic Association (SAEe) Annual Meetings Barcelona Fall 2017LACEA Annual Meetings Buenos Aires Fall 2017Economics Department Seminar Series University of Essex Colchester Fall 2016Finance Seminar Series University of Oxford Oxford Spring 2016World Bank Workshop on Earnings Inequality Understanding the Trend Reversal ofWage Inequality in LAC Washington DC Fall 2015IZA Workshop on Gender Convergence Why Are Women Becoming More Like Men(and Men More Like Women) in the Labor Market Bonn Spring 2014
INVITED TOREFEREE
Management Science Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Journal of Devel-opment Studies Review of Economics of the Household
AWARDS ANDFELLOWSHIPS
Final-Year Departmental Doctoral Bursary and Graduate Teaching Assistantship Uni-versity of Oxford 2016-2017Economics Department Doctoral Studentship University of Oxford 2014-2016
PROGRAMMING R STATA MATLAB Python LATEX
Last updated October 2018
Simon FranklinLondon School of Economics
Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE +44 (0) 7887795953SFranklin1lseacuk wwwsimonfranklinco
Citizenship South African
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Placement Assistant Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
CURRENT POSITION
London School of Economics 2015 - PresentPostdoctoral Research Economist
EDUCATION
University of OxfordDPhil in Economics 2011- 2015
Thesis Title Essays on Labour Markets Frictions in Developing CountriesEdgeworth Prize for outstanding doctoral thesis
MPhil in Economics (Distinction) 2009-2011George Webb Medley Prize for Best Thesis (proxime accessit)
University of Cape TownBCom (Honours) in Economics (Distinction) 2008
REFERENCES
Professor Marcel FafchampsFreeman Spogli InstituteStanford Universityfafchampstanfordedu
Professor J Vernon HendersonDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentLondon School of Economicsjvhendersonlseacuk
Doctor Gharad BryanDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsgtbryanlseacuk
Professor Robin BurgessDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsrburgesslseacuk
Doctor Simon QuinnDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordsimonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS
Primary DevelopmentSecondary Labour Urban Applied microeconomics
1
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Research Papers
ldquoIncentives for Collective Innovationrdquo (Job Market Paper)
Identical agents exert hidden effort to produce random increments in the stock of a public good and receive a stock- and effort-contingent flow of payoffs I characterise the unique symmetric Markov equilibrium and for the two-agent binary-effort case the payoff-maximising equilibrium when strategies may condition on private histories as well In contrast to the social-welfare benchmark under general conditions continuation payoffs in the symmetric Markov and the best non-Markov equilibria may drop after an increment in the stock In this case reducing the risk of producing negligible increments in favour of moderate ones always reduces ex-ante equilibrium welfare and delaying the disclosure of increments (forgoing their benefits) based on their size is incentive-compatible and welfare-enhancing In the context of an RampD alliance in which improvements in a shared technology raise the incentive to shift resources towards private activities concealing moderate improvements may raise private profits and collective progress
ldquoMonotone Decision Rules and Supermodularityrdquo
I study decision problems under uncertainty involving the choice of a rule mapping states into actions I show that for any rule there exists an increasing rule generating higher expected value for all payoff functions that are supermodular in action and state I present applications to problems of taxation betting and price discrimination in a market with a demand externality I then consider the choice of rules mapping noisy signals of the state into actions I give conditions under which optimal rules are increasing when (a) several agents commit to a shared rule or (b) the relationship between the signal and the state is ambiguous I show that a well-known informativeness criterion applies to these cases
ldquoThe Lattice Structure of Single-Crossingrdquo (in progress) joint with Ludvig Sinander
Most comparisons of preferences are special cases of single-crossing dominance We examine the lattice structure of single-crossing dominance proving characterisation existence and uniqueness results for minimum upper bounds of arbitrary sets of preferences In particular the set of all preferences over a totally-ranked set of alternatives is a complete lattice Using these theorems we characterise a general class of maxmin preferences as precisely minimum upper bounds with respect to lsquomore ambiguity-averse thanrsquo we develop a misspecification-robust theory of monotone comparative statics and one relating to the consensus of a group of agents we characterise when acceptable aggregation of individual preferences is possible in an environment with normative constraints we study the evolution of pro-social behaviour and sharply characterise the population dynamics of pro-sociality
Last updated 29 October 2018
Manuel Fernandez SierraWebsite sitesgooglecomviewmanuelfernandezsierra
Email mfernandezsierraessexacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Admin Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
CONTACTINFORMATION
Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)University of EssexWivenhoe ParkColchester UK CO4 3SQPhone +44 (0)7464291148
PERSONALINFORMATION
Citizenship Colombia US Permanent resident (Green Card)
EDUCATION DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2018MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2014MSc Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2011BA Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2008
REFERENCES Sonia BhalotraProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of EssexColchester C04 3SQ UKPhone +(44) 01206 873700email srbhalessexacuk
Climent Quintana-DomequeProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of ExeterExeter EX4 4PU UKPhone +44 (0) 1392 726105email CQuintana-Domequeexeteracuk
Julian MessinaLead Research EconomistDepartment of Research and Chief EconomistInter-American Development BankWashington DC 20577 USAPhone +(1) 202 942-8211email julianmIADBORG
Simon QuinnAssociate Professor in EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsOxford UniversityOxford OX1 3UQ UKPhone +(44) 01865 271089email simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS Labor Economics Development Economics Health Economics
TEACHINGEXPERIENCE
(Lecturer) Econometrics I Universidad de los Andes 2015(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Graduate) Oxford University 2014 - 2017(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Second Year UG) Oxford University 2017(TA) Advanced Econometrics (Graduate) Universidad de los Andes 2009 - 2010(TA) History of Economic Analysis (UG) Universidad de los Andes 2009
JOURNALARTICLES
Fernandez M and Messina J (2018) Skill Premium Labor Supply and Changes inthe Structure of Wages in Latin America Journal of Development Economics 135pp 555-573
Fernandez M Ibanez A M and Pena X (2014) Adjusting the Labor Supply toMitigate Violent Shocks Evidence from Rural Colombia The Journal of DevelopmentStudies 50(8) pp1135-1155
Fernandez M (2012) Violencia y Derechos de Propiedad El Caso de La Violencia enColombia Ensayos Sobre Polıtica Economica 30(69) pp113-147
RESEARCHPAPERS INPROGRESS
Female Labor Force Participation and the Distribution of the Gender Wage GapJob Market PaperLatest Version
We analyse impacts of the rising labor force participation of women on the distributionof the gender wage gap We formulate an equilibrium model of the labor market inwhich the elasticity of substitution between male and female labor is allowed to varydepending on the task content of occupations We structurally estimate the parametersof the model using household survey data from Mexico between 1989 and 2014 We findthat the elasticity of substitution is higher in high-paying occupations that are intensivein abstract and analytical tasks than in low-paying manual and routine occupationsConsistent with this we find that the sharp rise in female labor force participationgenerated strong downward pressure on the wages of female workers especially in low-paying occupations Demand side trends favoured women and this attenuated thesupply-driven negative pressure on their wages The paper contributes new evidenceon the distribution of the gender wage gap and contributes to a wider literature ontechnological change occupational sorting and wage inequality
Herding in Equity Crowdfundingwith T Astebro S Lovo and N VulkanLatest Version
Do equity crowdfunding investors herd We build a model where informed and unin-formed investors arrive sequentially and choose whether and how much to invest Wetest the model using data of investments on a leading European equity crowdfundingplatform We show theoretically and find empirically that the size and likelihood of apledge is affected positively by the size of the most recent pledges and negatively bythe time elapsed since the most recent pledge The empirical analysis is inconsistentwith naıve herding independent investments or exogenously correlated investments
Job Search Intensity Information Capacity Constraints and the Wage DistributionExtended Abstract
Most research on the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTrsquos)on income inequality has focused on the potential of machines to replace or complementhuman labor I propose an alternative mechanism by which an increase in the qualityand quantity of information that firms can obtain about prospective workers broughtabout by ICT advancements results in higher residual earnings dispersion in a waythat is unrelated to job displacements In the model individuals searching for a joband firms trying to fill a vacancy have information capacity constraints that limit theirability to uncover the potential productivity of the match Within an equilibrium jobsearch framework I show that loosening the information constraints leads to a highervariance of the equilibrium distribution of wages This result arises because firms are
better able to discriminate good and bad matches which directly affects the wagebargaining process
Restricting Access to Health Services Citizens Rights and the Effects of Denying Med-ical Carewith S Bhalotra
Since 2013 more than 16 million complaints were made to the Colombian NationalHealth Superintendence against health insurers for restricting access to medical careservices Over the last decade more than one million legal claims (tutelas) have beenmade to courts by individuals protesting that their right to health was undermined byan insurer We study how these restrictions of access to medical services by insurersaffect their enrolleesrsquo health We construct a panel dataset of insurers in every mu-nicipality of Colombia with yearly information on the number of enrollees complaintstutelas and mortality rates between 2010 and 2016 Our identification strategy usespolicy interventions by the ministry of health that changed the competitive structureof the healthcare system modifying the market power of insurers at the local leveland altering the incentives to compete for enrollees Preliminary results show that anincrease in the number of tutelas or complaints against an insurer is strongly associ-ated with an increase of the overall and cause-specific mortality rates of its enrolleesWe find that the effect is stronger in the subsidized regime which covers the poorestsegments of the population
Gender Debate and Rebellion in the House of Commons 1992 - 2015 A StructuralTopic Modelling Approachwith S Bhalotra and J Slapin
The number of women in the British House of Commons has increased substantiallyover the last quarter century But how has the increasing number of women MPs shapedpolitics in Britain We address this question by examining women MPsrsquo participationin parliamentary debate using transcripts from more than 400000 speeches made inthe House of Commons between 1992 and 2015 In addition to examining whetherwomen participate at a similar rate to their male colleagues we examine whethertheir participation is associated with particular debate topics using a structural topicmodel We find that certain debate topics in parliament are gendered However theprevalence of these topics does not seem to vary over time with the number of womenin parliament Moreover we find that women are underrepresented in parliamentarydebates controlling for party and seat share often even on debates associated withwomenrsquos topics If women MPsrsquo participation shapes policy and impacts politicalrepresentation their underrepresentation in debate may have significant normativeimplications for democracy
BOOKCHAPTERS
Bhalotra S Fernandez M Venkataramani A (2015) The Right Tail and the RightTale Women and Skill in Mexico In S Polanchek K Tasiramos and K Zimmermaneds Gender Convergence in the Labor Market Research in Labor Economics Vol 41Emerald Publishing Group pp 299-341
Fernandez M Hernandez C Ibanez A M and Jaramillo C (2016) DinamicasProvinciales de Pobreza en Colombia 1993-2005 In F Benito and J Berdegue edsLos Dilemas Territoriales del Desarrollo en America Latina Universidad de los Andespp 187-210
OTHEREMPLOYMENT
Senior Research Officer 2017-
Institute for Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of EssexColchester UK
Research Assistant 2010-2012Office of the Chief Economist for Latin AmericaThe World BankWashington DC
PROFESSIONALAFFILIATIONS
Research Affiliate IZA 2018-
PRESENTATIONS Labour and Public Economics Seminar Series Paris School of Economics Fall 2018Economics Department Seminar Series Universidad del Rosario Bogota Fall 2018IZA and World Bank Jobs amp Development Conference Bogota Spring 2018Spanish Economic Association (SAEe) Annual Meetings Barcelona Fall 2017LACEA Annual Meetings Buenos Aires Fall 2017Economics Department Seminar Series University of Essex Colchester Fall 2016Finance Seminar Series University of Oxford Oxford Spring 2016World Bank Workshop on Earnings Inequality Understanding the Trend Reversal ofWage Inequality in LAC Washington DC Fall 2015IZA Workshop on Gender Convergence Why Are Women Becoming More Like Men(and Men More Like Women) in the Labor Market Bonn Spring 2014
INVITED TOREFEREE
Management Science Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Journal of Devel-opment Studies Review of Economics of the Household
AWARDS ANDFELLOWSHIPS
Final-Year Departmental Doctoral Bursary and Graduate Teaching Assistantship Uni-versity of Oxford 2016-2017Economics Department Doctoral Studentship University of Oxford 2014-2016
PROGRAMMING R STATA MATLAB Python LATEX
Last updated October 2018
Simon FranklinLondon School of Economics
Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE +44 (0) 7887795953SFranklin1lseacuk wwwsimonfranklinco
Citizenship South African
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Placement Assistant Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
CURRENT POSITION
London School of Economics 2015 - PresentPostdoctoral Research Economist
EDUCATION
University of OxfordDPhil in Economics 2011- 2015
Thesis Title Essays on Labour Markets Frictions in Developing CountriesEdgeworth Prize for outstanding doctoral thesis
MPhil in Economics (Distinction) 2009-2011George Webb Medley Prize for Best Thesis (proxime accessit)
University of Cape TownBCom (Honours) in Economics (Distinction) 2008
REFERENCES
Professor Marcel FafchampsFreeman Spogli InstituteStanford Universityfafchampstanfordedu
Professor J Vernon HendersonDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentLondon School of Economicsjvhendersonlseacuk
Doctor Gharad BryanDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsgtbryanlseacuk
Professor Robin BurgessDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsrburgesslseacuk
Doctor Simon QuinnDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordsimonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS
Primary DevelopmentSecondary Labour Urban Applied microeconomics
1
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Manuel Fernandez SierraWebsite sitesgooglecomviewmanuelfernandezsierra
Email mfernandezsierraessexacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Admin Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
CONTACTINFORMATION
Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)University of EssexWivenhoe ParkColchester UK CO4 3SQPhone +44 (0)7464291148
PERSONALINFORMATION
Citizenship Colombia US Permanent resident (Green Card)
EDUCATION DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2018MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2014MSc Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2011BA Economics Universidad de los Andes Bogota Colombia 2008
REFERENCES Sonia BhalotraProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of EssexColchester C04 3SQ UKPhone +(44) 01206 873700email srbhalessexacuk
Climent Quintana-DomequeProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of ExeterExeter EX4 4PU UKPhone +44 (0) 1392 726105email CQuintana-Domequeexeteracuk
Julian MessinaLead Research EconomistDepartment of Research and Chief EconomistInter-American Development BankWashington DC 20577 USAPhone +(1) 202 942-8211email julianmIADBORG
Simon QuinnAssociate Professor in EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsOxford UniversityOxford OX1 3UQ UKPhone +(44) 01865 271089email simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS Labor Economics Development Economics Health Economics
TEACHINGEXPERIENCE
(Lecturer) Econometrics I Universidad de los Andes 2015(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Graduate) Oxford University 2014 - 2017(TA) Microeconomic Theory (Second Year UG) Oxford University 2017(TA) Advanced Econometrics (Graduate) Universidad de los Andes 2009 - 2010(TA) History of Economic Analysis (UG) Universidad de los Andes 2009
JOURNALARTICLES
Fernandez M and Messina J (2018) Skill Premium Labor Supply and Changes inthe Structure of Wages in Latin America Journal of Development Economics 135pp 555-573
Fernandez M Ibanez A M and Pena X (2014) Adjusting the Labor Supply toMitigate Violent Shocks Evidence from Rural Colombia The Journal of DevelopmentStudies 50(8) pp1135-1155
Fernandez M (2012) Violencia y Derechos de Propiedad El Caso de La Violencia enColombia Ensayos Sobre Polıtica Economica 30(69) pp113-147
RESEARCHPAPERS INPROGRESS
Female Labor Force Participation and the Distribution of the Gender Wage GapJob Market PaperLatest Version
We analyse impacts of the rising labor force participation of women on the distributionof the gender wage gap We formulate an equilibrium model of the labor market inwhich the elasticity of substitution between male and female labor is allowed to varydepending on the task content of occupations We structurally estimate the parametersof the model using household survey data from Mexico between 1989 and 2014 We findthat the elasticity of substitution is higher in high-paying occupations that are intensivein abstract and analytical tasks than in low-paying manual and routine occupationsConsistent with this we find that the sharp rise in female labor force participationgenerated strong downward pressure on the wages of female workers especially in low-paying occupations Demand side trends favoured women and this attenuated thesupply-driven negative pressure on their wages The paper contributes new evidenceon the distribution of the gender wage gap and contributes to a wider literature ontechnological change occupational sorting and wage inequality
Herding in Equity Crowdfundingwith T Astebro S Lovo and N VulkanLatest Version
Do equity crowdfunding investors herd We build a model where informed and unin-formed investors arrive sequentially and choose whether and how much to invest Wetest the model using data of investments on a leading European equity crowdfundingplatform We show theoretically and find empirically that the size and likelihood of apledge is affected positively by the size of the most recent pledges and negatively bythe time elapsed since the most recent pledge The empirical analysis is inconsistentwith naıve herding independent investments or exogenously correlated investments
Job Search Intensity Information Capacity Constraints and the Wage DistributionExtended Abstract
Most research on the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTrsquos)on income inequality has focused on the potential of machines to replace or complementhuman labor I propose an alternative mechanism by which an increase in the qualityand quantity of information that firms can obtain about prospective workers broughtabout by ICT advancements results in higher residual earnings dispersion in a waythat is unrelated to job displacements In the model individuals searching for a joband firms trying to fill a vacancy have information capacity constraints that limit theirability to uncover the potential productivity of the match Within an equilibrium jobsearch framework I show that loosening the information constraints leads to a highervariance of the equilibrium distribution of wages This result arises because firms are
better able to discriminate good and bad matches which directly affects the wagebargaining process
Restricting Access to Health Services Citizens Rights and the Effects of Denying Med-ical Carewith S Bhalotra
Since 2013 more than 16 million complaints were made to the Colombian NationalHealth Superintendence against health insurers for restricting access to medical careservices Over the last decade more than one million legal claims (tutelas) have beenmade to courts by individuals protesting that their right to health was undermined byan insurer We study how these restrictions of access to medical services by insurersaffect their enrolleesrsquo health We construct a panel dataset of insurers in every mu-nicipality of Colombia with yearly information on the number of enrollees complaintstutelas and mortality rates between 2010 and 2016 Our identification strategy usespolicy interventions by the ministry of health that changed the competitive structureof the healthcare system modifying the market power of insurers at the local leveland altering the incentives to compete for enrollees Preliminary results show that anincrease in the number of tutelas or complaints against an insurer is strongly associ-ated with an increase of the overall and cause-specific mortality rates of its enrolleesWe find that the effect is stronger in the subsidized regime which covers the poorestsegments of the population
Gender Debate and Rebellion in the House of Commons 1992 - 2015 A StructuralTopic Modelling Approachwith S Bhalotra and J Slapin
The number of women in the British House of Commons has increased substantiallyover the last quarter century But how has the increasing number of women MPs shapedpolitics in Britain We address this question by examining women MPsrsquo participationin parliamentary debate using transcripts from more than 400000 speeches made inthe House of Commons between 1992 and 2015 In addition to examining whetherwomen participate at a similar rate to their male colleagues we examine whethertheir participation is associated with particular debate topics using a structural topicmodel We find that certain debate topics in parliament are gendered However theprevalence of these topics does not seem to vary over time with the number of womenin parliament Moreover we find that women are underrepresented in parliamentarydebates controlling for party and seat share often even on debates associated withwomenrsquos topics If women MPsrsquo participation shapes policy and impacts politicalrepresentation their underrepresentation in debate may have significant normativeimplications for democracy
BOOKCHAPTERS
Bhalotra S Fernandez M Venkataramani A (2015) The Right Tail and the RightTale Women and Skill in Mexico In S Polanchek K Tasiramos and K Zimmermaneds Gender Convergence in the Labor Market Research in Labor Economics Vol 41Emerald Publishing Group pp 299-341
Fernandez M Hernandez C Ibanez A M and Jaramillo C (2016) DinamicasProvinciales de Pobreza en Colombia 1993-2005 In F Benito and J Berdegue edsLos Dilemas Territoriales del Desarrollo en America Latina Universidad de los Andespp 187-210
OTHEREMPLOYMENT
Senior Research Officer 2017-
Institute for Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of EssexColchester UK
Research Assistant 2010-2012Office of the Chief Economist for Latin AmericaThe World BankWashington DC
PROFESSIONALAFFILIATIONS
Research Affiliate IZA 2018-
PRESENTATIONS Labour and Public Economics Seminar Series Paris School of Economics Fall 2018Economics Department Seminar Series Universidad del Rosario Bogota Fall 2018IZA and World Bank Jobs amp Development Conference Bogota Spring 2018Spanish Economic Association (SAEe) Annual Meetings Barcelona Fall 2017LACEA Annual Meetings Buenos Aires Fall 2017Economics Department Seminar Series University of Essex Colchester Fall 2016Finance Seminar Series University of Oxford Oxford Spring 2016World Bank Workshop on Earnings Inequality Understanding the Trend Reversal ofWage Inequality in LAC Washington DC Fall 2015IZA Workshop on Gender Convergence Why Are Women Becoming More Like Men(and Men More Like Women) in the Labor Market Bonn Spring 2014
INVITED TOREFEREE
Management Science Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Journal of Devel-opment Studies Review of Economics of the Household
AWARDS ANDFELLOWSHIPS
Final-Year Departmental Doctoral Bursary and Graduate Teaching Assistantship Uni-versity of Oxford 2016-2017Economics Department Doctoral Studentship University of Oxford 2014-2016
PROGRAMMING R STATA MATLAB Python LATEX
Last updated October 2018
Simon FranklinLondon School of Economics
Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE +44 (0) 7887795953SFranklin1lseacuk wwwsimonfranklinco
Citizenship South African
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Placement Assistant Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
CURRENT POSITION
London School of Economics 2015 - PresentPostdoctoral Research Economist
EDUCATION
University of OxfordDPhil in Economics 2011- 2015
Thesis Title Essays on Labour Markets Frictions in Developing CountriesEdgeworth Prize for outstanding doctoral thesis
MPhil in Economics (Distinction) 2009-2011George Webb Medley Prize for Best Thesis (proxime accessit)
University of Cape TownBCom (Honours) in Economics (Distinction) 2008
REFERENCES
Professor Marcel FafchampsFreeman Spogli InstituteStanford Universityfafchampstanfordedu
Professor J Vernon HendersonDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentLondon School of Economicsjvhendersonlseacuk
Doctor Gharad BryanDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsgtbryanlseacuk
Professor Robin BurgessDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsrburgesslseacuk
Doctor Simon QuinnDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordsimonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS
Primary DevelopmentSecondary Labour Urban Applied microeconomics
1
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
JOURNALARTICLES
Fernandez M and Messina J (2018) Skill Premium Labor Supply and Changes inthe Structure of Wages in Latin America Journal of Development Economics 135pp 555-573
Fernandez M Ibanez A M and Pena X (2014) Adjusting the Labor Supply toMitigate Violent Shocks Evidence from Rural Colombia The Journal of DevelopmentStudies 50(8) pp1135-1155
Fernandez M (2012) Violencia y Derechos de Propiedad El Caso de La Violencia enColombia Ensayos Sobre Polıtica Economica 30(69) pp113-147
RESEARCHPAPERS INPROGRESS
Female Labor Force Participation and the Distribution of the Gender Wage GapJob Market PaperLatest Version
We analyse impacts of the rising labor force participation of women on the distributionof the gender wage gap We formulate an equilibrium model of the labor market inwhich the elasticity of substitution between male and female labor is allowed to varydepending on the task content of occupations We structurally estimate the parametersof the model using household survey data from Mexico between 1989 and 2014 We findthat the elasticity of substitution is higher in high-paying occupations that are intensivein abstract and analytical tasks than in low-paying manual and routine occupationsConsistent with this we find that the sharp rise in female labor force participationgenerated strong downward pressure on the wages of female workers especially in low-paying occupations Demand side trends favoured women and this attenuated thesupply-driven negative pressure on their wages The paper contributes new evidenceon the distribution of the gender wage gap and contributes to a wider literature ontechnological change occupational sorting and wage inequality
Herding in Equity Crowdfundingwith T Astebro S Lovo and N VulkanLatest Version
Do equity crowdfunding investors herd We build a model where informed and unin-formed investors arrive sequentially and choose whether and how much to invest Wetest the model using data of investments on a leading European equity crowdfundingplatform We show theoretically and find empirically that the size and likelihood of apledge is affected positively by the size of the most recent pledges and negatively bythe time elapsed since the most recent pledge The empirical analysis is inconsistentwith naıve herding independent investments or exogenously correlated investments
Job Search Intensity Information Capacity Constraints and the Wage DistributionExtended Abstract
Most research on the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTrsquos)on income inequality has focused on the potential of machines to replace or complementhuman labor I propose an alternative mechanism by which an increase in the qualityand quantity of information that firms can obtain about prospective workers broughtabout by ICT advancements results in higher residual earnings dispersion in a waythat is unrelated to job displacements In the model individuals searching for a joband firms trying to fill a vacancy have information capacity constraints that limit theirability to uncover the potential productivity of the match Within an equilibrium jobsearch framework I show that loosening the information constraints leads to a highervariance of the equilibrium distribution of wages This result arises because firms are
better able to discriminate good and bad matches which directly affects the wagebargaining process
Restricting Access to Health Services Citizens Rights and the Effects of Denying Med-ical Carewith S Bhalotra
Since 2013 more than 16 million complaints were made to the Colombian NationalHealth Superintendence against health insurers for restricting access to medical careservices Over the last decade more than one million legal claims (tutelas) have beenmade to courts by individuals protesting that their right to health was undermined byan insurer We study how these restrictions of access to medical services by insurersaffect their enrolleesrsquo health We construct a panel dataset of insurers in every mu-nicipality of Colombia with yearly information on the number of enrollees complaintstutelas and mortality rates between 2010 and 2016 Our identification strategy usespolicy interventions by the ministry of health that changed the competitive structureof the healthcare system modifying the market power of insurers at the local leveland altering the incentives to compete for enrollees Preliminary results show that anincrease in the number of tutelas or complaints against an insurer is strongly associ-ated with an increase of the overall and cause-specific mortality rates of its enrolleesWe find that the effect is stronger in the subsidized regime which covers the poorestsegments of the population
Gender Debate and Rebellion in the House of Commons 1992 - 2015 A StructuralTopic Modelling Approachwith S Bhalotra and J Slapin
The number of women in the British House of Commons has increased substantiallyover the last quarter century But how has the increasing number of women MPs shapedpolitics in Britain We address this question by examining women MPsrsquo participationin parliamentary debate using transcripts from more than 400000 speeches made inthe House of Commons between 1992 and 2015 In addition to examining whetherwomen participate at a similar rate to their male colleagues we examine whethertheir participation is associated with particular debate topics using a structural topicmodel We find that certain debate topics in parliament are gendered However theprevalence of these topics does not seem to vary over time with the number of womenin parliament Moreover we find that women are underrepresented in parliamentarydebates controlling for party and seat share often even on debates associated withwomenrsquos topics If women MPsrsquo participation shapes policy and impacts politicalrepresentation their underrepresentation in debate may have significant normativeimplications for democracy
BOOKCHAPTERS
Bhalotra S Fernandez M Venkataramani A (2015) The Right Tail and the RightTale Women and Skill in Mexico In S Polanchek K Tasiramos and K Zimmermaneds Gender Convergence in the Labor Market Research in Labor Economics Vol 41Emerald Publishing Group pp 299-341
Fernandez M Hernandez C Ibanez A M and Jaramillo C (2016) DinamicasProvinciales de Pobreza en Colombia 1993-2005 In F Benito and J Berdegue edsLos Dilemas Territoriales del Desarrollo en America Latina Universidad de los Andespp 187-210
OTHEREMPLOYMENT
Senior Research Officer 2017-
Institute for Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of EssexColchester UK
Research Assistant 2010-2012Office of the Chief Economist for Latin AmericaThe World BankWashington DC
PROFESSIONALAFFILIATIONS
Research Affiliate IZA 2018-
PRESENTATIONS Labour and Public Economics Seminar Series Paris School of Economics Fall 2018Economics Department Seminar Series Universidad del Rosario Bogota Fall 2018IZA and World Bank Jobs amp Development Conference Bogota Spring 2018Spanish Economic Association (SAEe) Annual Meetings Barcelona Fall 2017LACEA Annual Meetings Buenos Aires Fall 2017Economics Department Seminar Series University of Essex Colchester Fall 2016Finance Seminar Series University of Oxford Oxford Spring 2016World Bank Workshop on Earnings Inequality Understanding the Trend Reversal ofWage Inequality in LAC Washington DC Fall 2015IZA Workshop on Gender Convergence Why Are Women Becoming More Like Men(and Men More Like Women) in the Labor Market Bonn Spring 2014
INVITED TOREFEREE
Management Science Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Journal of Devel-opment Studies Review of Economics of the Household
AWARDS ANDFELLOWSHIPS
Final-Year Departmental Doctoral Bursary and Graduate Teaching Assistantship Uni-versity of Oxford 2016-2017Economics Department Doctoral Studentship University of Oxford 2014-2016
PROGRAMMING R STATA MATLAB Python LATEX
Last updated October 2018
Simon FranklinLondon School of Economics
Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE +44 (0) 7887795953SFranklin1lseacuk wwwsimonfranklinco
Citizenship South African
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Placement Assistant Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
CURRENT POSITION
London School of Economics 2015 - PresentPostdoctoral Research Economist
EDUCATION
University of OxfordDPhil in Economics 2011- 2015
Thesis Title Essays on Labour Markets Frictions in Developing CountriesEdgeworth Prize for outstanding doctoral thesis
MPhil in Economics (Distinction) 2009-2011George Webb Medley Prize for Best Thesis (proxime accessit)
University of Cape TownBCom (Honours) in Economics (Distinction) 2008
REFERENCES
Professor Marcel FafchampsFreeman Spogli InstituteStanford Universityfafchampstanfordedu
Professor J Vernon HendersonDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentLondon School of Economicsjvhendersonlseacuk
Doctor Gharad BryanDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsgtbryanlseacuk
Professor Robin BurgessDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsrburgesslseacuk
Doctor Simon QuinnDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordsimonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS
Primary DevelopmentSecondary Labour Urban Applied microeconomics
1
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
better able to discriminate good and bad matches which directly affects the wagebargaining process
Restricting Access to Health Services Citizens Rights and the Effects of Denying Med-ical Carewith S Bhalotra
Since 2013 more than 16 million complaints were made to the Colombian NationalHealth Superintendence against health insurers for restricting access to medical careservices Over the last decade more than one million legal claims (tutelas) have beenmade to courts by individuals protesting that their right to health was undermined byan insurer We study how these restrictions of access to medical services by insurersaffect their enrolleesrsquo health We construct a panel dataset of insurers in every mu-nicipality of Colombia with yearly information on the number of enrollees complaintstutelas and mortality rates between 2010 and 2016 Our identification strategy usespolicy interventions by the ministry of health that changed the competitive structureof the healthcare system modifying the market power of insurers at the local leveland altering the incentives to compete for enrollees Preliminary results show that anincrease in the number of tutelas or complaints against an insurer is strongly associ-ated with an increase of the overall and cause-specific mortality rates of its enrolleesWe find that the effect is stronger in the subsidized regime which covers the poorestsegments of the population
Gender Debate and Rebellion in the House of Commons 1992 - 2015 A StructuralTopic Modelling Approachwith S Bhalotra and J Slapin
The number of women in the British House of Commons has increased substantiallyover the last quarter century But how has the increasing number of women MPs shapedpolitics in Britain We address this question by examining women MPsrsquo participationin parliamentary debate using transcripts from more than 400000 speeches made inthe House of Commons between 1992 and 2015 In addition to examining whetherwomen participate at a similar rate to their male colleagues we examine whethertheir participation is associated with particular debate topics using a structural topicmodel We find that certain debate topics in parliament are gendered However theprevalence of these topics does not seem to vary over time with the number of womenin parliament Moreover we find that women are underrepresented in parliamentarydebates controlling for party and seat share often even on debates associated withwomenrsquos topics If women MPsrsquo participation shapes policy and impacts politicalrepresentation their underrepresentation in debate may have significant normativeimplications for democracy
BOOKCHAPTERS
Bhalotra S Fernandez M Venkataramani A (2015) The Right Tail and the RightTale Women and Skill in Mexico In S Polanchek K Tasiramos and K Zimmermaneds Gender Convergence in the Labor Market Research in Labor Economics Vol 41Emerald Publishing Group pp 299-341
Fernandez M Hernandez C Ibanez A M and Jaramillo C (2016) DinamicasProvinciales de Pobreza en Colombia 1993-2005 In F Benito and J Berdegue edsLos Dilemas Territoriales del Desarrollo en America Latina Universidad de los Andespp 187-210
OTHEREMPLOYMENT
Senior Research Officer 2017-
Institute for Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of EssexColchester UK
Research Assistant 2010-2012Office of the Chief Economist for Latin AmericaThe World BankWashington DC
PROFESSIONALAFFILIATIONS
Research Affiliate IZA 2018-
PRESENTATIONS Labour and Public Economics Seminar Series Paris School of Economics Fall 2018Economics Department Seminar Series Universidad del Rosario Bogota Fall 2018IZA and World Bank Jobs amp Development Conference Bogota Spring 2018Spanish Economic Association (SAEe) Annual Meetings Barcelona Fall 2017LACEA Annual Meetings Buenos Aires Fall 2017Economics Department Seminar Series University of Essex Colchester Fall 2016Finance Seminar Series University of Oxford Oxford Spring 2016World Bank Workshop on Earnings Inequality Understanding the Trend Reversal ofWage Inequality in LAC Washington DC Fall 2015IZA Workshop on Gender Convergence Why Are Women Becoming More Like Men(and Men More Like Women) in the Labor Market Bonn Spring 2014
INVITED TOREFEREE
Management Science Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Journal of Devel-opment Studies Review of Economics of the Household
AWARDS ANDFELLOWSHIPS
Final-Year Departmental Doctoral Bursary and Graduate Teaching Assistantship Uni-versity of Oxford 2016-2017Economics Department Doctoral Studentship University of Oxford 2014-2016
PROGRAMMING R STATA MATLAB Python LATEX
Last updated October 2018
Simon FranklinLondon School of Economics
Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE +44 (0) 7887795953SFranklin1lseacuk wwwsimonfranklinco
Citizenship South African
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Placement Assistant Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
CURRENT POSITION
London School of Economics 2015 - PresentPostdoctoral Research Economist
EDUCATION
University of OxfordDPhil in Economics 2011- 2015
Thesis Title Essays on Labour Markets Frictions in Developing CountriesEdgeworth Prize for outstanding doctoral thesis
MPhil in Economics (Distinction) 2009-2011George Webb Medley Prize for Best Thesis (proxime accessit)
University of Cape TownBCom (Honours) in Economics (Distinction) 2008
REFERENCES
Professor Marcel FafchampsFreeman Spogli InstituteStanford Universityfafchampstanfordedu
Professor J Vernon HendersonDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentLondon School of Economicsjvhendersonlseacuk
Doctor Gharad BryanDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsgtbryanlseacuk
Professor Robin BurgessDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsrburgesslseacuk
Doctor Simon QuinnDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordsimonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS
Primary DevelopmentSecondary Labour Urban Applied microeconomics
1
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Institute for Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of EssexColchester UK
Research Assistant 2010-2012Office of the Chief Economist for Latin AmericaThe World BankWashington DC
PROFESSIONALAFFILIATIONS
Research Affiliate IZA 2018-
PRESENTATIONS Labour and Public Economics Seminar Series Paris School of Economics Fall 2018Economics Department Seminar Series Universidad del Rosario Bogota Fall 2018IZA and World Bank Jobs amp Development Conference Bogota Spring 2018Spanish Economic Association (SAEe) Annual Meetings Barcelona Fall 2017LACEA Annual Meetings Buenos Aires Fall 2017Economics Department Seminar Series University of Essex Colchester Fall 2016Finance Seminar Series University of Oxford Oxford Spring 2016World Bank Workshop on Earnings Inequality Understanding the Trend Reversal ofWage Inequality in LAC Washington DC Fall 2015IZA Workshop on Gender Convergence Why Are Women Becoming More Like Men(and Men More Like Women) in the Labor Market Bonn Spring 2014
INVITED TOREFEREE
Management Science Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Journal of Devel-opment Studies Review of Economics of the Household
AWARDS ANDFELLOWSHIPS
Final-Year Departmental Doctoral Bursary and Graduate Teaching Assistantship Uni-versity of Oxford 2016-2017Economics Department Doctoral Studentship University of Oxford 2014-2016
PROGRAMMING R STATA MATLAB Python LATEX
Last updated October 2018
Simon FranklinLondon School of Economics
Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE +44 (0) 7887795953SFranklin1lseacuk wwwsimonfranklinco
Citizenship South African
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Placement Assistant Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
CURRENT POSITION
London School of Economics 2015 - PresentPostdoctoral Research Economist
EDUCATION
University of OxfordDPhil in Economics 2011- 2015
Thesis Title Essays on Labour Markets Frictions in Developing CountriesEdgeworth Prize for outstanding doctoral thesis
MPhil in Economics (Distinction) 2009-2011George Webb Medley Prize for Best Thesis (proxime accessit)
University of Cape TownBCom (Honours) in Economics (Distinction) 2008
REFERENCES
Professor Marcel FafchampsFreeman Spogli InstituteStanford Universityfafchampstanfordedu
Professor J Vernon HendersonDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentLondon School of Economicsjvhendersonlseacuk
Doctor Gharad BryanDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsgtbryanlseacuk
Professor Robin BurgessDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsrburgesslseacuk
Doctor Simon QuinnDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordsimonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS
Primary DevelopmentSecondary Labour Urban Applied microeconomics
1
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Simon FranklinLondon School of Economics
Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE +44 (0) 7887795953SFranklin1lseacuk wwwsimonfranklinco
Citizenship South African
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Placement Assistant Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
CURRENT POSITION
London School of Economics 2015 - PresentPostdoctoral Research Economist
EDUCATION
University of OxfordDPhil in Economics 2011- 2015
Thesis Title Essays on Labour Markets Frictions in Developing CountriesEdgeworth Prize for outstanding doctoral thesis
MPhil in Economics (Distinction) 2009-2011George Webb Medley Prize for Best Thesis (proxime accessit)
University of Cape TownBCom (Honours) in Economics (Distinction) 2008
REFERENCES
Professor Marcel FafchampsFreeman Spogli InstituteStanford Universityfafchampstanfordedu
Professor J Vernon HendersonDepartment of Geography and EnvironmentLondon School of Economicsjvhendersonlseacuk
Doctor Gharad BryanDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsgtbryanlseacuk
Professor Robin BurgessDepartment of EconomicsLondon School of Economicsrburgesslseacuk
Doctor Simon QuinnDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordsimonquinneconomicsoxacuk
FIELDS
Primary DevelopmentSecondary Labour Urban Applied microeconomics
1
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
PUBLICATIONS AND REVISIONS
Location search costs and youth unemployment A randomized trial of transport subsidies in Ethiopia (2018)The Economic Journal 128 (614)
Economic shocks and labour market flexibility Evidence from typhoons in the Philippines (with JulienLabonne) (2018) Forthcoming Journal of Human Resources
Enabled to work The impact of government housing on shack dwellers in South Africa Revise andResubmit Journal of Urban Economics (CSAE WP 2015-10)
Anonymity or Distance Experimental Evidence on Obstacles to Youth Employment Opportunities(with Girum Abebe Stefano Caria Paolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps amp Simon Quinn)Rejection with invitation to resubmit Review of Economic Studies CEPR Working Paper DP13136
WORKING PAPERS
Slums to failed Estates Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in EthiopiaJOB MARKET PAPER
Good neighbours make good fences randomly allocated neighbours and local public goods in urban Ethiopia
Job Fairs Matching firms and workers in a field experiment in Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe Stefano CariaPaolo Falco Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)
Searching with friends (with Stefano Caria amp Marc Witte)
The long-term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia(with Chris Blattman and Stefan Dercon)
Private costs and social benefits of workfare Evidence from urban Ethiopia (with Girum Abebe and CarolinaMejia-Mantilla)
WORKS IN PROGRESS
Urban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa(with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)Status fieldwork underway
Urban local labour markets in urban Ethiopia (with Clement Imbert)Status fieldwork complete analysis underway
Cost effective panel data collection for Kampala (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)Status fieldwork underway
Can infrastructure upgrades and new technologies improve road safety Evidence from Ethiopiarsquos TransportSystems Improvement Project (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)
DISTINCTIONS
Rhodes Scholarship 2009
Herbert and Ilse Frankel Memorial Studentship at Oriel College Oxford 2012
Faculty Award for Excellence- University of Cape Town 2008
South African National Research Foundation Grant 2008
2
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
RESEARCH GRANTS
GLM - LIC (with Girum Abebe and Gharad Bryan)ldquoUrban density and labour markets Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababardquo e270000
ieConnect for Impact Program (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)Preparation for ldquoUrban Corridors and Economic Opportunities in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $25000
Global Road Safety Facility (with Girija Borker Erin Kelley and Javier Morales Sarriera)ldquoAssessing the Impact of Road Safety Interventions in Addis Ababa Ethiopiardquo $170000
IGC Research Grant (with Julia Bird Gharad Bryan amp Astrid Hass)ldquoCost effective panel data collection for Kampalardquo pound35469
IGC Research GrantldquoUrban Neighbourhoods and Public Goodsrdquo pound15000
World Bank Jobs MDTF (with Ruth Hill amp Carolina Mejia-Mantilla)ldquoYouth entrepreneurship and spatial match in urban labor markets in Ethiopiardquo $300000
IGC Research Grant (with Berihu Assefa amp Alebel Bayrau)ldquoLow Cost Housing for Africarsquos Citiesrdquo pound110000
World Bank RSB (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn amp Forhad Shilpi)ldquoConnecting Africarsquos Urban Poor to Jobs A Randomized Job Fair Interventionrdquo $300000
IGC Open Call (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of a Screening Intervention in AddisAbabardquo pound90000
GLM - LIC (with Marcel Fafchamps Simon Quinn Girum Abebe Stefano Caria amp Paolo Falco)ldquoAssisting Job Search in Low-Employment Communities The Effect of Information Provision and TransportVouchers in Addis Ababardquo pound300000
TEACHING
Applied Urban and Regional Economics 2016-2017Teaching Assistant London School of Economics
Development economics (Masters quantative methods) 2014Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics (second year undergraduate) 2013Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Public Economics (third year undergraduate) 2012Departmental Teaching Associate University of Oxford
Econometrics of Randomized Controlled Trials March 2014Danish Graduate Programme in Economics University of Copenhagen
Randsomized Controlled Trials November 2018DFIDIZA Short Course in Program Evaluation Cocircte drsquoIvoire
Undergraduate Economics 2007-2008Intermediate Microeconomic Macroeconomics amp Game Theory University of Cape Town
OTHER WORK EXPERIENCE
World Bank 2012 - 2014Consultant
3
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
South African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) 2009Full time Researcher Cape Town
ldquoAspire Ethiopiardquo Randomized Controlled Trial (CSAE) 2011Fieldwork Manager Addis Ababa
SELECTED PRESENTATIONS
NEUDC (2018) Stanford University (2018 Planned) Urban Economics Association (2018) OxDev(Planned 2018) Royal Economic Society (Bristol 2017) GLM-LIC Researchers Meetings (2015 20162018) Field Days Workshop (University of Copenhagen 2017) JPAL - Field Experiments in LabourEconomics Conference (2015) Annual Bank Conference on Africa (2016) OxDev (2016 2018) EthiopianEconomic Association Conference (2016) IGC Cities Conference (2015 amp 2016) NEUDC (2014 2015amp 2016) IFS (2015) CSAE Annual Conferences (2012-2017) PacDev (2014) IZAWorld Bank LabourConference (2014)
REFEREE SERVICE
Review of Economics and Statistics Journal of Urban Economics Journal of Labor Policy Develop-ment Southern Africa Journal of African Economies Economic Development and Cultural ChangeWorld Development
4
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Xiyu Jiao
Date of Birth January 18 1989
Marital Status Single
Citizenship China
Contact Information
Mansfield CollegeMansfield RoadOxford OX1 3TF UK
Phone +44 (0)79 2856 9656Email xiyujiaomansfieldoxacukHomepage httpssitesgooglecomviewxiyujiao
Research Interests
Econometric and Statistical Theory Time Series Empirical Processes Outlier Detection Algorithms Non-linear Cointegration Model Selection Specification Tests
Higher Education
University of Oxford UK 2013 - PresentMPhil and DPhil in Economics Department of EconomicsThesis Essays on Asymptotic Analysis of Outlier Detection AlgorithmsAdvisor Bent Nielsen
London School of Economics and Political Science UK 2011 - 2012MSc in Statistics (Research) with Distinction Department of StatisticsDissertation Time Series Analysis and Forecasts of Child Mortality Rates in Hong KongAdvisor Clifford Lam
Northwest University China 2007 - 2011BSc in Computational Mathematics Department of Mathematics
Honours and Prizes
Royal Statistical Society Prize for Best Graduate on an Accredited Course 2012
LSE Best Graduate Prize for Excellence in MSc Statistics (Research) 2012
Teaching Experience
Teaching Associate Department of Economics University of Oxford 2015 - PresentEconometrics for the First Year MPhil
Module InstructorIntroduction to Econometrics (Probability) Bent Nielsen Vanessa Berenguer-RicoEstimation and Inference in Linear Models (Regression) Steve Bond Bent NielsenIV GMM and MLE James DuffyDiscrete Choice Models Michael Keane
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Xiyu Jiao 2
PapersWorking Papers
[1] Jiao X (2018) A simple robust procedure in instrumental variables regression Job Market Paper
Abstract Due to the frequent concern that outliers may invalidate the empirical findings in practicalapplications of instrumental variables regression the common practice is to first run ordinary two stageleast squares and check if residuals are beyond the chosen cut-off value to classify outliers Subsequently2SLS is re-calculated based on non-outlying observations and this procedure is iterated until robustresults are obtained In this paper we analyze this simple robust algorithm asymptotically and giventhe cut-off value then provide the consistent estimation and inferential procedures Moreover this paperprovides an asymptotic theory for setting the cut-off which is chosen to control the concept of gauge- the proportion of outliers wrongly discovered The established weak convergence result is a startingpoint to propose statistical tests for examining if outliers truly exist to assess model misspecification Theargument involves empirical processes and the fixed point Thus this paper also establishes the uniformand weak law for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing for estimation errors ofparameters in the structural IV equation Asymptotics are derived under the null hypothesis that there isno contamination in the cross-sectional iid data
[2] Jiao X and Pretis F (2018) Testing the presence of outliers to assess misspecification in regressionmodels Working Paper
Abstract The presence of outlying observations in a regression model can be indicative of model misspec-ification consequently it is important to check for possible outlier contamination However algorithmsused to detect outliers have a positive probability of finding outliers even when in fact the data generationprocess has no outliers Deriving distributional results on the expected retention rate of falsely discoveredoutliers we propose two set of tests for the overall presence of outliers first tests on whether the observedproportion and number of detected outliers deviate from their expected values Second lsquoscalingrsquo tests onwhether the number of detected outliers decreases proportionally with the level of significance used todetect outliers We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests based on iterated 1-step Huber-skipM-estimators The first set of tests has power against the number of outliers present while the second setof tests has power against both outlier magnitude and number In applications of the tests we considera cross-sectional macroeconomic model of economic growth and re-visit a set of previous studies usingindicator saturation The tests are valid for stationary as well as (stochastically) trending regressors andcan readily be implemented using Autometrics in PcGive or the R-package gets
[3] Jiao X (2017) Uniform convergence of marked empirical processes in location and scale model WorkingPaper
Abstract We consider the residual empirical process for the location and scale model This paper givesa new proof for uniform convergence results Then the refining argument requires the simpler and weakerassumptions needed in Johansen and Nielsen (2016) and Jiao and Nielsen (2017)
[4] Jiao X and Nielsen B (2017) Asymptotic analysis of iterated 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators withvarying cut-offs In Antoch J Jureckova J Maciak M and Pesta M (eds) Analytical Methods inStatistics AMISTAT Prague November 2015 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 19323-52
Abstract We consider outlier detection algorithms for time series regression based on iterated 1-stepHuber-skip M-estimators This paper analyses the role of varying cut-offs in such algorithms The argumentinvolves an asymptotic theory for a new class of weighted and marked empirical processes allowing forestimation errors of the scale and the regression coefficient
Professional Services
Referee for Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Xiyu Jiao 3
Professional Memberships
Graduate Statistician of Royal Statistical Society and American Statistical Association
Internships
Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited (Hong Kong) 2009
References
Bent Nielsen James DuffyDepartment of Economics Nuffield College Department of Economics Corpus Christi CollegeUniversity of Oxford University of OxfordEmail bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk Email jamesduffyeconomicsoxacuk
Vanessa Berenguer-RicoDepartment of Economics Mansfield CollegeUniversity of OxfordEmail vanessaberenguer-ricoeconomicsoxacuk
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Jan Jozwik wwwjanjozwikcom
janjozwikeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 7599 280392
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281162 Contact Information Department of Economics Oxford University
Manor Road OX 1 3UQ Oxford UK Undergraduate Studies BA (Hons) First class European Studies with Spanish University of Essex 2005 ndash 2009 (one-year Erasmus Exchange in 2007-08 Economics Department UPF Spain) Graduate Studies University of Oxford October 2011 ndash expected 2018
PhD in Economics Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Limitations to Technology Adoptionrdquo
University of Oxford October 2009 ndash July 2011 MPhil in Economics
References
Professor Douglas Gollin Professor Stefan Dercon Department of International
Development Oxford University Department of Economics Oxford University
douglasgollinqehoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 281 832
stefanderconeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1865 616 747
Dr Pieter Serneels Professor Matthew Cole Department of Economics
University of East Anglia Department of Economics University of Birmingham
pserneelsueaacuk +44 (0) 1603 591508
macoleeconomicsoxacuk +44 (0) 1214 146 639
Teaching and Research Fields Primary fields Development Economics Experimental Economics Secondary fields Game Theory Environmental Economics
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Teaching Experience
Since Fall 2014 Teaching Fellow Economics Department University of Birmingham - lecturer PG Game Theory course (full-year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Game Theory course (Fall 2014 2015 2016 2017) - lecturer UG Development Economics course (Spring 2015 2016 2017 2018) - lecturer UG Environmental Economics course (Fall 2017) - lecturer UG Behavioural Economics course (Spring 2017) - supervisor 24 PG dissertations (since 2015) - supervisor 31 UG extended essays (since 2015)
Fall 2012 Spring 2013
Game Theory (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Peter Eso Econometrics (UG) Oxford University teaching fellow for Dr Victoria Prowse
Conference and Seminar Presentations (recent)
2018 (inc forthcoming) 2017 2016
SAEe (Madrid) SEEDEC (Wageningen) Nuffield Phdpost-doc seminar (Oxford) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham) CEAR Conference on Risk and Risky Behaviour (Copenhagen) SEEDEC (Norwich) IMEBESS (Florence) PhD Workshop Experimental Development Economics (2017) QEH Development Seminar (Oxford) Economics Internal Seminar (Birmingham)
Professional Activities
2018 2016 2012 2011
Book reviewer Game Theory for the Social Sciences (by Jose Luis Ferreira) Book reviewer Game Theory (by Indrahit Ray) GIZ Germany short-term consultant Imaflora Brazil Short-term consultant
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2017
Birmingham Business School Research and Innovation Fund (pound3200) PI (jointly with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
2016 Birmingham Business School Teaching Innovation Fund (pound2500) 2014 Oxford University Departmental Teaching Associate Award 2014 CSAE Grant for Experiments in Ghana (pound2700) 2009-2013 Economic and Social Research Council Full Doctoral Scholarship (fees amp pound64000) 2011 British Petroleum Scholarship for OUIIP in Brazil (pound3200) 2005-2009 Fahrenheit Scholarship (City of Gdansk Poland)
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Research Papers ldquoBehavioural Factors and Technology Adoption Experimental Evidence from cocoa farming in Ghanardquo (Job Market Paper) This paper investigates the effect of trust and of an ambiguous environment on fertiliser investments under index insurance These two behavioural factors were studied by means of a framed field experiment conducted with Ghanaian cocoa farmers The subjects had an option to invest in a package of fertiliser bundled with index insurance with a positive level of basis risk The returns depended both on the subjectsacute investment choices and a stochastic weather realization The key ingredient of the study was that for different subjects the nature of the basis risk was framed differently Substantially fewer subjects adopted fertiliser when possible losses of fertiliser investment were framed as resulting from the insureracutes failure to meet its contract obligations compared with an alternative in which the losses were framed as resulting from a mismatch between their own weather realizations and those on which the index insurance was based A large negative effect on fertiliser investments was also found in treatments with either a small or large ambiguity regarding the exact level of basis risk Both negative treatment effects were strongly significant This may suggest that technologies with which farmers are relatively more experienced are more likely to be adopted under index insurance schemes The overall experimental findings provide evidence that trust and ambiguity may be significant factors other than basis risk limiting the effectiveness of index insurance in promoting agricultural innovation ldquoReturns to New Technology and Comparative Advantagerdquo (submitted) In this paper I investigate whether returns to fertiliser in cocoa farming are high and whether farmers adoption decisions can be explained by comparative advantage I use data from Ghana to measure the returns to fertiliser by means of static and dynamic panel models of homogeneous returns to fertiliser as well as a correlated random model of heterogeneous technology which allows for farmer-specific comparative advantage The estimated returns in different models are positive high and strongly significant statistically The effect of the comparative advantage on technology adoption decisions is found to be statistically significant Research Paper(s) in Progress ldquoGender Differences in Social Comparisonsrdquo (with Michalis Drouvelis and Donna Harris)
Social comparisons are ubiquitous across many domains of economic and social life affecting individualsrsquo judgments and attitudes towards others In this paper we examine the interplay between gender and social comparisons in individualsrsquo earned income (from a real effort task) and cooperative behaviour in a one-shot social dilemma game Our main findings indicate that the effects of social comparisons are gender sensitive women are more responsive to social comparisons We find that women are significantly more likely to increase their earned income when social comparisons are present compared to men However when we allow for social comparisons women become less pro-social We discuss potential mechanisms for the observed effects Overall our findings shed new light on the heterogeneous effects of social comparisons that may have important implications for institutional design based on social information
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Daniel Kaliski
wwwdanielkaliskicom
danielkaliskinuffieldoxacuk
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Office Contact Information
Nuffield College
New Road
Oxford
United Kingdom
OX1 1NF
Office andor cell phone number
(+44)78647 788 077
Personal Information Date of Birth 19081990 South African citizen
Undergraduate Studies
Bachelor of Social Science Economics and Applied Statistics University of Cape Town 2011
Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics University of Cape Town 2012
Graduate Studies
University of Oxford 2013-present
Thesis Title ldquoEssays on the Econometric Analysis of Forward-Looking Behaviour in Health Care
Marketsrdquo
Expected Completion Date June 2019
References
Professor Michael P Keane Professor Ian Crawford
Department of Economics University
of New South Wales
Department of Economics University of Oxford
mkeaneunsweduau
(+61) 293 853 670
iancrawfordeconomicsoxacuk
(+44) 186 527 8500
Professor Olivia S Mitchell
Department of Business Economics
and Public Policy Wharton Business
School University of Pennsylvania
mitchelowhartonupennedu
(+1) 215 898 0424
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Teaching and Research Fields
Primary fields Public Economics Health Economics
Secondary fields Applied Econometrics Labour Economics
Teaching Experience
Fall 2017 Econometrics I Kingrsquos College London teaching fellow for Professor Michael P
Keane
Fall 2016 Preliminary Microeconomics University of Oxford teaching fellow for Professor
Alan Beggs
Fall 2012 Public Sector Economics (UG) University of Cape Town (Award Best Tutor)
Research Experience and Other Employment
June-Oct
2016
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof John Muellbauer
June-Oct
2014
University of Oxford Research Assistant to Prof Michael P Keane
Nov 2011-
Jan 2012
University of Cape Town Research Assistant to Prof Ingrid Woolard
Professional Activities
Referee Journal of Econometrics Health Economics Empirical Economics
Invited Presentations 2018 European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society Naples 2018
European Economics Association Meeting Koln 2018 European Health Economics Association Meeting
Maastricht 2017 National Tax Association Meeting Philadelphia University of Pennsylvania Ludwig
Maximilian University Munich University of Oxford
Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Spring 2017 amp Spring 2018
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2018 Final Year Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2016 Departmental Bursary Department of Economics University of Oxford
2013-2017 Rhodes Scholarship
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Research Papers
ldquoDoes Insurance for Treatment Crowd Out Prevention Evidence from Diabeticsrsquo Insulin Usagerdquo
(Job Market Paper)
Abstract I provide new evidence that health insurance can discourage investment in health I find that in the
United States before 2006 13-30 of female diabetics who used insulin to manage their condition stopped
using insulin once they turned 65 and became eligible for health insurance via Medicare I reconcile these
results with those from other studies by developing a model of the trade-off between prevention and
treatment The model explains the large effect sizes in this paper via two mechanisms First individuals
substitute prevention efforts away from periods when the price of treatment is low and toward periods when
the price of treatment is high Second this effect is stronger for preventive measures that have larger effects on
health The introduction of more generous subsidies for insulin under Medicare Part D in 2006 eliminated this
effect saving up to $487 million per annum in forgone health care costs
ldquoCoherence Leads to Caution Subjective Medical Expenses Forecasts The Conjunction Fallacy and
Over-Pessimismrdquo
Abstract Towards the end of the life cycle the risk that one may need expensive medical treatment is one of
the most important motives for saving The accuracy of individuals forecasts regarding this risk is therefore
highly important for their saving behaviour as well as their welfare Nonetheless 103 of individuals in the
Health and Retirement Study (HRS) make forecasts for their out-of-pocket medical expenditures that imply
decreasing cumulative distribution functions - a violation of the laws of probability I go on to test whether the
remaining individuals coherent forecasts of their out-of-pocket medical expenses follow Bayes Rule I find that
individuals who make coherent forecasts are more pessimistic than hypothetical Bayesian agents
Research Papers in Progress
(With Gregory S Burge) ldquoShelter from the Storm The Effect of Housing Wealth on the Demands for
Prevention and Insurancerdquo
(With Emma Boswell Dean and Mallick Hossain) ldquoGoing Off-Script The Effect of Physician Licence
Suspension on the Demand for Medication
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Andrew B Martinez Magdalen CollegeNationality United States of America Oxford United Kingdomhttpssitesgooglecomviewandrewbmartinez andrewmartinezeconomicsoxacuk
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
EDUCATION
2015ndash DPhil (PhD) Economics (expected 2019)UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD MAGDALEN COLLEGE
2013ndash15 MPhil Economics July 2015UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ST CROSS COLLEGE
2008ndash10 MA International Trade amp Investment Policy May 2010THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
2003ndash07 BA cum laude Economics International Studies German Language amp Literature May 2007GUILFORD COLLEGE
REFERENCES
David F Hendry Jennifer L CastleNuffield College University of Oxford Magdalen College University of Oxforddavidhendrynuffieldoxacuk jennifercastlemagdoxacuk
Neil R Ericsson Bent NielsenFederal Reserve Board Nuffield College University of OxfordDepartment of Economics GWU Department of Economics University of Oxfordneilrericssonfrbgov bentnielsennuffieldoxacuk
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Econometrics Time Series Econometrics Applied Macroeconomics International Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford UK (2015-present)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics I OLS IV GMM MLE (Fall 2015-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics II Macroeconometrics (Spring 2016-2018)MPhil (graduate) Econometrics III Microeconometrics (Spring 2018)
Instructor OxMetrics Training Course Motability Operations UK (Sep 2018)
Teaching Assistant Economic Forecasting Summer School ISF Boulder USA (June 2018)
Instructor Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Universidad de La Habana CU (Apr 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Spring School George Washington University USA (Mar 2016)
Teaching Assistant Econometrics Summer School Aix-Marseille University FR (Sep 2015)
Tutor Macroeconomics amp International Economics Guilford College USA (2005-2007)
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Andrew B Martinez
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT
2018 Summer Associate Global Investment Research Division Goldman Sachs International2017 Dissertation Intern Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland2017 Short Term Expert Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund2016 Research Assistant Professor Sophocles Mavroeidis University of Oxford2014ndash15 Research Assistant Professor Sir David Hendry University of Oxford2010ndash13 Research Officer Independent Evaluation Office International Monetary Fund2009 Research Assistant Professor Graciela Kaminsky The George Washington University2008ndash10 International Economist Office of Economics US International Trade Commission2008 Enterprise Researcher Research Department RainKing Software Inc2007 Summer Research Associate Maine International Trade Center2006 Political and Economic Affairs Intern US Consulate Leipzig US Department of State
HONORS SCHOLARSHIPS AND FELLOWSHIPS
2018-19 University of Oxford David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship2018 First Runner-up Best Student Presentation International Symposium on Forecasting2017 AEA Summer Economics Fellow2016-19 Oxford Martin School Fellow2015-18 Robertson Foundation Doctoral Scholarship2015ndash18 University of Oxford Department of Economics Doctoral Scholarship2015 International Institute of Forecasters Student Forecasting Award
PUBLICATIONS
1 ldquoEvaluating Forecasts Narratives and Policy using a Test of Invariancerdquo (with Jennifer L Castleand David F Hendry) Econometrics Vol 5 3 (2017) 39 dxdoiorg103390econometrics5030039
2 ldquoEvaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observationsrdquo (withDavid F Hendry) International Journal of Forecasting Vol 33 2 (2017) pp 359-372 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201608007
3 ldquoHow Good Are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debtrdquo International Journal of Fore-casting Vol 31 2 (2015) pp 312-324 dxdoiorg101016jijforecast201408014
4 ldquoOverview of US-China Trade in Advanced Technology Productsrdquo (with Alexander Hammerand Robert Koopman) Journal of International Commerce and Economics Vol 3 (2011) pp 1-16
JOB MARKET PAPER AND RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
ldquoA False Sense of Security The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damagesrdquo (JMP)
Can forecasts of natural disasters alter their destructiveness Poor forecasts increase damages whenindividuals do not mitigate risks based on the false belief that they will be unaffected We test thishypothesis by examining the impact of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages and find thatlarger errors in the stormrsquos predicted landfall location lead to higher damages The cumulative re-duction in damages from forecast improvements since 1970 is about $82 billion This exceeds the USgovernmentrsquos spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them The benefits fromforecast improvements are underestimated and individual adaptation decisions matter
2
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Andrew B Martinez
ldquoTesting for Differences in the Forecast-Error Dynamics of Path Forecastsrdquo
The trajectory and path of future outcomes play crucial roles in policy decisions However analysesof forecast accuracy typically focus on the point forecasts Examining the path forecasts provides ad-ditional insight into the forecast dynamics I propose a test for differences in path forecast accuracyusing the link between path forecast evaluation methods and the joint predictive density This testnests and extends existing multi-horizon tests Simulations highlight the trade-offs of path forecastaccuracy tests for detecting a broad range of differences in forecasts I compare the Federal ReserversquosGreenbook point and path forecasts against four DSGE model forecasts The results show that differ-ences in forecast dynamics play an important role in the assessment of path forecast accuracy
ldquoA Note of Caution on Instrumental Variables Exogeneity and Causality in Time Seriesrdquo
This paper examines the use of instrumental variables in time series to help address concerns aboutendogeneity and identify causal effects It starts by discussing how instrumental variable methodsfit within the exogeneity framework established by Engle et al (1983) Next different cases are con-sidered where the use of instrumental variables implies that super exogeneity is (1) satisfied withalternative conditions (2) satisfied with fewer conditions (3) never satisfied This shows that whileinstrumental variables can be used to circumvent violations of (weak) exogeneity super exogeneityand therefore a causal interpretation does not necessarily follow automatically
PERMANENT WORKING PAPERS AND REPORTS
1 ldquoOn the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts A Survey and some Extensionsrdquo (with HansGenberg) IEO Background Paper BP1404 February 2014
2 ldquoThe IMF-WEO Forecast Processrdquo (with Hans Genberg and Michael Salemi) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1403 February 2014
3 ldquoIMF Bilateral Surveillance on International Reservesrdquo (with Angana Banerji) IEO BackgroundPaper BP1202 August 2012
4 ldquoComparing Government Forecasts of the United Statesrsquo Gross Federal Debtrdquo GWU ResearchProgram on Forecasting Working Paper February 2011
5 ldquoCoRe NTMs Database A Compilation of Reported Non-Tariff Measuresrdquo (with Jesse Mora andJose Signoret) USITC Office of Economics Working Paper December 2009
Languages Human English (native) German (fluent) Programming EViews Ox R Stata
Member American Economic Association (2018-present) The Econometric Society (2018-present)International Institute of Forecasters (2012-present) Royal Economic Society (2017-present)
Presentations 2018 20th OxMetrics Users Conference 3rd Conference on Econometric Models of ClimateChange 38th International Symposium on Forecasting European Geophysical Union Annual Meetings VUAmsterdam Econometrics Lunch Seminar VU Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies Lunch Sem-inar 2017 RES PhD Meetings Computational and Financial Econometrics Oxford Econometrics LunchSeminar Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Brown Bag Seminar 37th International Symposium on Fore-casting 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change Oxford Econometrics Lunch Semi-nar 2016 INET Oxford Research Seminar Econometric Models of Climate Change 18th OxMetrics UsersConference 36th International Symposium on Forecasting 17th OxMetrics Users Conference 2015 INETOxford Research Seminar 16th OxMetrics Users Conference 2012 32nd International Symposium onForecasting 11th OxMetrics Users Conference 2011 Southern Economic Association Annual MeetingsFederal Forecasters Conference GWU Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting 2007 NC Undergraduate His-tory Thesis Writers Conference
Referee Empirical Economics International Journal of Forecasting International Review of Economics andFinance Journal of Applied Econometrics Journal of Econometrics
3
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Alessio Piccolo sitesgooglecomsitealessipiccolo
alessiopiccolomertonoxacuk
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440 Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162 Office Contact Information Department of Economics Manor Road Building Oxford OX1 3UQ Mobile +39 334 1860989 Undergraduate Studies Laurea Magistralis Economics University of Naples Federico II 2013 Graduate Studies DPhil Economics University of Oxford 2015-present Thesis Title ldquoEssays in Financial Economicsrdquo Expected Completion Date June 2018
Visiting Student Princeton University Spring 2016 MPhil Economics University of Oxford 2013-15
References
Professor Margaret Meyer
Department of Economics University of Oxford +44 1865 278570 margaretmeyernuffieldoxacuk
Professor Joel Shapiro Saiumld Business School University of Oxford +44 1865 288973 joelshapirosbsoxacuk
Professor Marco Pagano Department of Economics University of Naples Federico II +39 081 675306 marcopaganouninait
Professor Stephen Morris Department of Economics Princeton University +1 609 258 4032 smorrisprincetonedu
Research Fields Financial Economics Information Economics Corporate Finance
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Teaching Experience 2017-2019 Core Microeconomics (2nd year undergraduate) Tutor at Christ Church College
University of Oxford 2017-2018
2015-2016
Advanced Microeconomics (2nd year graduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Margaret Meyer Microeconomics (3rd year undergraduate) University of Oxford teaching assistant for Professor Godfrey Keller
Conferences and Seminar Presentations 2018 2nd Workshop on Corporate Debt Markets at Cass Business School Financial
Intermediation Research Society FIRS Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) European Association for Research in Industrial Economics EARIE HEC Paris Oxford Saiumld School of Business
2017
2016
University of Oxford Warwick Economics PhD Conference Norwegian School of Economics Frontiers of Finance (Discussant) Catalan Economic Society Conference Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference Financial Intermediation Research Society FIRS Belgrade Young Economists Conference 13th CSEF-IGIER Symposium on Economics and Institution Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Oxford Financial Intermediation Theory OxFIT (Discussant) Oxford University University of Naples Federico II Carnegie Mellon Economics of Credit Ratings Conference
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships 2018-2019 Vice-Chancellors Fund University of Oxford 2017-2018
2017 2013-2017
Doctoral Studentship Department of Economics University of Oxford Young Economist at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting Economic and Social Research Council Studentship (Full Award) University of Oxford
Job Market Paper ldquoExecutive Compensation and Short-Termismrdquo The stock market is widely believed to pressure executives to deliver short-term earnings at the expense of long-term value This paper develops a model of the interaction between executive compensation and stock market prices analyzing its implications for corporate short-termism I show that inefficient short-termism can arise in equilibrium as a self-fulfilling prophecy due to strategic complementarities between the firms investment horizon and investors decision to acquire information about short-term performance or long-term value However the severity of the underlying agency problem between the manager and shareholders fully determines whether short-termism is an equilibrium outcome This implies both that the stock-market cannot be identified as the cause of corporate short-termism and that it actually has the potential to alleviate the problem
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
The model helps us assess evidence presented in the myopia debate and yields novel implications regarding ownership structure executive compensation and managerial horizon Working Papers ldquoCredit Ratings and Market Informationrdquo (with Joel Shapiro) How does market information affect credit ratings How do credit ratings affect market information We examine a model in which a credit rating agencys (CRAs) rating is followed by a market for credit risk that provides a public signal - the price A more accurate rating decreases market informativeness as it diminishes mispricing and hence incentives for investor information acquisition On the other hand more-informative trading increases CRA accuracy incentives by making rating inflation more transparent We analyze implications for policy and the real economy ldquoCredit Ratings and Competitionrdquo I analyze a model of competition between credit rating agencies (CRAs) In equilibrium investors only buy assets that received high ratings from multiple CRAs This has two contrasting effects on the quality of certification On the one hand the issuer needs to pass the screening of multiple CRAs other things being equal this improves certification On the other hand it has the perverse effect of incentivizing dishonest ratings by introducing a team dimension that dilutes the CRAs reputational concerns When the perverse effect dominates competition reduces the quality of certification However mandating disclosure of indicative ratings can restore the first-best outcome Last updated 27 October 2018
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
October 2018
PIERRE E WEIL UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Balliol College Oxford United Kingdom
pierreweileconomicsoxacukhttppierreweilcom
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler +44 1865 281440 johannesabelereconomicsoxacukGraduate Administrator Julie Minns +44 1865 281162 julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
EDUCATION
2015mdash DPhil (PhD) in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College Expected June 2019
2013mdash2015 MPhil in Economics University of Oxford Balliol College
2008mdash2010 MA in Mathematics University of Texas at Austin
2004mdash2008 MSci in Mathematics Imperial College London First class honours (four year undergraduate degree)
REFERENCES
RESEARCH AND TEACHING FIELDS
Macroeconomics Monetary Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2017mdash2018 Teaching Assistant Department of Economics University of Oxford MPhil (graduate) Macroeconomics 2015mdash2017 Lecturer The Queenrsquos College University of Oxford First-year undergraduate micro- and macroeconomics
2015 Lecturer Worcester College amp Corpus Christi College University of Oxford Undergraduate quantitative economics (econometrics)
2009mdash2010 Teaching assistant University of Texas at Austin Real analysis and various calculus classesresearch experience
Professor Guido AscariDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordguidoascarieconomicsoxacuk
Professor Andrea FerreroDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxfordandreaferreroeconomicsoxacuk
Richard HarrisonBank of EnglandMonetary Analysis amp Strategy Divisionrichardharrisonbankofenglandcouk
Professor Benjamin MollDepartment of EconomicsPrinceton Universitymollprincetonedu
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
October 2018
RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
2018mdash Visiting Research Student London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics
2017 David Walton Scholar (PhD Intern) Bank of England Research in the Monetary Analysis and Strategy Division under the supervision of Richard Harrison2015mdash Research Assistant Professors Ascari amp Ferrero University of Oxford
AWARDS
2017mdash2018 David Walton Distinguished Doctoral Scholarship University of Oxford 2015mdash2017 Economics Departmental Studentship University of Oxford 2009mdash2010 National Science Foundation Research Training Grant in Topology
RESEARCH PAPERS
Redistribution from the Cradle to the Grave A Unified Approach to Heterogeneity in Age Income and Wealth (Job Market Paper)
This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal policy reform with a focus on pensions To that effect I build a novel overlapping generations heterogeneous agent (OLGHA) model based on mean field games which conflates canonical mechanisms of lifecycle behavior and precautionary savings Despite its parsimony the model yields empirically realistic distributions of savings and of the cross-sectional impact of pension reform On average an extra dollar of pension wealth crowds out 70 cents of private savings in line with estimates Behind this aggregate hides a considerably heterogeneous reaction with the savings of low-asset workers most impacted Accordingly the model predicts that more generous social security can increase wealth inequality over the long run even if the matching tax increase is progressive Means-testing amplifies this reaction Progressive transfers to young workers also increase wealth inequality but through a different channel households take on riskier portfolios when faced with safe transfer income Savings are not as strongly crowded out since it is easier for young workers to save than to borrow
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Fast Demographics and Slow Inequality
Rising wealth inequality in the United States can be summarized by two facts (a) a switch in the shape of the distribution from from a thin tail pre-1970s to a fat (Pareto) tail and (b) the steady increase in the width of the tail since 1980 Several theories have been proposed for explaining the current shape of the wealth distribution In this paper I demonstrate that many of them cannot account for facts (a) and (b) when faced with lifecycle behavior and realistic demographics In that case the dynamics the wealth distribution become too slow operating on the level of generations
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
October 2018
HANK and the MPC Asymmetry (Bank of England)
Marginal propensities to consume are highly complex functions of household portfolios and incomes Further recent evidence suggests that MPCs also depend nonlinearly on the sign and size of the transfer with MPCs out of negative transfers much higher than out of positive transfers In this paper I build a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that yields an empirically realistic MPC asymmetry through household credit frictions I use this to identify asymmetries in monetary transmission
The distributional impact of an increase in the inflation target (with Guido Ascari and Andrea Ferrero)
SKILLS
Python MATLAB STATA SQL Linux Familiarity with C C++ Java
PROFILE
Dual French and US citizenship
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
MARC WITTE
httpwwwmarcwittecom
marcwitteeconomicsoxacuk
+44 (0)7707944243
University of Oxford
Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 (0)1865 281162
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics Manor Road OX1 3UQ Oxford UK
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Date of birth 21 November 1988 sex male citizenship GermanLanguages German (native) English (fluent) French (fluent) Spanish (intermediate) Amharic (basic)
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of Oxford October 2014 - expected 2018Doctor of Philosophy in Economics
supervised by Professor Margaret Stevens and Dr Simon QuinnThesis title ldquoEssays on Urban Job Networks in Developing Countriesrdquo
Probationer Research Student in Economics October 2013 - September 2014
MSc in Economics for Development distinction October 2012 - July 2013
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
BSc Economics first class Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2009 - August 2012
Intermediate Examination Law second degree Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin October 2010 - August 2012
REFERENCES
Professor Christopher Woodruff Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon QuinnDept of International Development Freeman Spogli Institute Department of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford Stanford University University of Oxfordchristopherwoodruffqehoxacuk fafchampstanfordedu simonquinneconomicsoxacuk
RESEARCH AREAS
Development Economics Labour Economics Economics of Networks
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201516 Economics of Developing Countries teaching assistant and tutor third year undergraduatecourse of the BA Philosophy Politics and Economics University of Oxford
201516 Quantitative Methods teaching assistant (STATA and mathematics preparation) MSc inEconomics for Development University of Oxford
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
ACADEMIC PAPERS
ldquoJob Referrals and Strategic Network Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods inEthiopiardquo (Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers 2018) (job market paper)
Abstract In this paper I show experimentally that network centrality plays a key role in job referral decisionswith important implications for the efficiency and equity of the job referral process When choosing whomto refer for a job individuals trade off personal benefits and altruistic considerations In a field experimentin Addis Ababa I am able to cleanly identify these motives I randomly generate real work opportunitiesfor young workers from urban neighbourhoods in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Some workers are able to referindividuals from their neighbourhood for the same job under exogenously varying conditions of the refer-ral treatment First under incentivised referrals individuals screen more productive workers in their localnetworks Second leveraging multiple rounds of referral data I show that under non-incentivised referralsworkers rely on reciprocity leading to both significant productivity losses and persistence in the exclusion ofperipheral individuals Increasing the anonymity of the referral changes the selection of more central workersto individuals with lower network centrality Lastly peripheral workers are more likely to establish new linksand successfully expand their network I show that these findings are consistent with a network-based jobreferral model with social payoffs My findings suggest that conventional job referrals through social networkscan reinforce labour market inequalities and prevent less socially connected individuals from getting access tojobs However when given referral opportunities individuals can manage to escape exclusion
ldquoSearching with Friendsrdquo (with Stefano Cario and Simon Franklin) (submitted)
Abstract Do policy interventions disrupt social networks We study how a job-search assistance interventionin Addis Ababa Ethiopia affects the job-search partners of programme participants We find that the partnersof treated participants reduce their job search efforts compared to the partners of untreated jobseekers Thisis not because they receive more information about vacancies from their treated friends On the contrary wedocument less information sharing between job-search partners We present suggestive evidence that this maybe because cooperation in job search becomes harder when one jobseeker has access to more resources thanthe other
ldquoDo Youth Employment Programs Improve Labor Market Outcomes A Quantitative Reviewrdquo (with JochenKluve Susana Puerto David Robalino Jose Manuel Romero Friederike Rother Jonathan Stoterau and FelixWeidenkaff) (forthcoming World Development)
Abstract To assess whether labor market interventions have succeeded in improving young peoples labormarket outcomes this study quantitatively reviews 113 impact evaluations of youth employment programsworldwide Of a total of 3105 effect estimates we extract from these studies one-third are positive significantThe unconditional average effect size across all programs is small both for employment and earnings outcomesIn a meta-regression analysis we find that (i) programs are more successful in middle- and low-income coun-tries (ii) the intervention type is less important than design and delivery (iii) programs integrating multipleservices are more successful (iv) profiling of beneficiaries individualized follow-up systems and incentives forservices providers matter and (vii) impacts are of larger magnitude in the long-term
ldquoUrban Job Search Networks Along a Spatial Dimensionrdquo (draft available upon request)
Abstract This paper introduces a unique set of urban job network data for young unemployed residentsof Addis Ababa Ethiopia I use these data to test the assumption that locally truncated networks are areasonable approximation for the complete network structure Comparing restricted neighbourhood contactswith the city-wide job contacts of a sample of job-seekers I find that the unrestricted city-wide links display ahigher degree of homophily in demographics than local links but a lower degree of homophily on work-relatedand aspirational characteristics This is in line with the intuition of a simple theoretical model on geographicallink formation that I present
WORK IN PROGRESS
ldquoEmployment Effects of Promoting Technical and Vocational Education and Training in Vietnamrdquo (with JochenKluve)(Best Practice Award (runner-up) PEGNet 2014 conference) (draft available upon request)
ldquoOvercoming Gender-Biases in Social Network Elicitationrdquo (draft available upon request)
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
ldquoSystematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economic behaviours and welfare in peoplewith mental illness in low- and middle-income countriesrdquo (with Johannes Haushofer Crick Lund Kate OrkinThandi Davies) (draft available upon request)
RELEVANT WORK EXPERIENCE
2016-2018 Research Assistant for Professor Stefan Dercon and Professor Tanguy Bernard2014-2015 Research Manager for Professor Marcel Fafchamps Dr Simon Quinn2014-2016 Short-Term Consultant International Labour Organization with Susana Puerto2013-2014 Short-Term Consultant World Bank with Dr David Robalino2012 Visiting Economist Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in-
vited by Prof Jochen Kluve2008-2009 German Compulsory Civil Service (Zivildienst) at GIZ in Kigali (Rwanda)
GRANTS AND SCHOLARSHIPS
Research grantsIndividual2016-2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound41244) for Job Referrals and Strategic Network
Formation ndash Experimental Evidence from Urban Neighbourhoods in Ethiopia2018 CSAE student grant (pound4700) for Overcoming Gender-Biases in Social Network ElicitationWith co-authors2018 International Growth Centre (IGC) (pound49823) jointly with Lukas Hensel and Tsegay Ge-
brekidan Tekleselassie for Formal Hiring Practices Firms Growth and Inclusive LabourMarkets (Grant awarded pending signature)
2017 Anonymous Donor (pound81000) jointly with Thandi Davis Johannes Haushofer Crick LundKate Orkin for Systematic review of the impact of mental health interventions on economicbehaviours and welfare in people with mental illness in low- and middle-income countries
Scholarships and awards2018 Best Paper Award RES Symposium of Junior Researchers for job market paper ldquoJob re-
ferrals and strategic network formation ndash Experimental evidence from urban neighbourhoodsin Ethiopiardquo
2018 Final-year departmental scholarship (Department of Economics)2013-2017 Economic and Social Science Research Council Full Doctoral Studentship2014 Best practice award PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia) 2nd place for research on
TVET promotion in Vietnam2012-2013 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) scholarship for graduate studies abroad2011-2012 Deutschlandstipendium (Germany Scholarship) scholarship for undergraduate studies
CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2018 (inclforthcoming)
NEUDC (Cornell) ESWM (Naples) OxDEV (Oxford) World Bank Annual Conferenceon Africa (Stanford) SEEDEC (Wageningen) RES conference and Symposium of JuniorResearchers (Sussex) European Economic Association (Cologne) Trans-Atlantic DoctoralConference (LBS) Warwick PhD conference German Development Economics and PolicyConference (Zurich) EBE Summer Meetings (Munich) GLAD conference (Gottingen)CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2017 RES conference and Symposium of Junior Researchers (Bristol) SERC Annual Conference(LSE) Ethiopian Economics Association Conference (Addis Ababa) German Develop-ment Economics and Policy Conference (Gottingen) DIAL Conference on DevelopmentEconomics (Paris Dauphine) CSAE conference and workshop (Oxford)
2016 NEUDC (MIT) PODER Summer School (Namur) RES Easter School (Essex) PEGNetconference (Kigali Rwanda) CSAE conference (Oxford) CSAE workshop (Oxford) Eco-nomics PhD conference (Warwick) Annual PhD Workshop (East Anglia)
2015 CSAE conference (Oxford) IZA workshop (Bonn)2014 CSAE conference (Oxford) PEGNet conference (Lusaka Zambia)
MISCELANEOUS
Software skills Stata Matlab QGIS LATEX R UCINET
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
University of OxfordNuffield CollegeNew RoadOX1 1NF Oxford UK
Jean FlemmingjeanflemmingeconomicsoxacukMobile +44 (0)7460 058020wwwjeanflemmingcom
Placement OfficerJohannes Abeler(+44) 1865 281440johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk
Graduate AdministratorJulie Minns(+44) 1865 281162julieminnseconomicsoxacuk
Personal Information Born 2051988 Female US Citizen Married
Current Position
2016-present Postdoctoral Research Fellow Nuffield College and Department of Economics
Education
2016 PhD Economics University of Rome Tor Vergata (Distinction)
2012-2016 Visiting Student EIEFSpring 2015 Visiting Student University of Pennsylvania
2012 MA Economics Boston University
2010 BA Economics University of Virginia (Distinction)
References
Guido MenzioNew York University(+1) (215) 898 5170gm1310nyuedu
Margaret StevensUniversity of Oxford(+44) 1865 271 092margaretstevenseconomicsoxacuk
Facundo PiguillemEIEF(+39) 06 4792 4971facundopiguillemeiefit
Fields Macroeconomics Labor Economics Urban Economics (secondary)
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
1
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Teaching Experience
2016-2018 University of Oxford Macroeconomics (TA Graduate) Topics in Macro Labor (TutorialsUndergraduate) Economics of the EU Trade and Policy (Tutorials Undergraduate)
2013-2016 University of Rome Tor Vergata Static Regression (TA Graduate) Multivariate TimeSeries Econometrics (TA Graduate) Time Series Econometrics (TA Graduate)
2011-2012 Boston University Introductory Macroeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)Introductory Microeconomic Analysis (TA Undergraduate)
Honors Scholarships and Fellowships
2016 - Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship University of Oxford2018 AEA Summer Fellow Federal Reserve Bank of New York2015-2016 PhD Student Scholarship EIEF2012-2015 PhD Student Scholarship University of Rome Tor Vergata2011-2012 Teaching Fellowship Boston University2010-2012 Deanrsquos Fellowship Boston University
Working Papers
Costly Commuting and the Job Ladder (Job Market Paper)
Even though households in the UK spent over pound1000 per worker on commuting in 2017 the economiccosts may be far higher because commuting and the associated congestion affect workersrsquo incentives forjob search and acceptance At the same time workersrsquo job acceptance decisions determine commutingpatterns and therefore aggregate congestion Using UK data on commuting and employment outcomesI find a strong positive relationship between commuting time and future job mobility To understandthe empirical patterns and quantify the aggregate implications I build a novel model featuring africtional labor market in which commuting gives rise to congestion as workers travel similar paths towork By taking the frictions in the labor market and the congestion arising from commuting seriouslythe model can be used to evaluate the spillovers from policies aimed at improving congestion or thefunctioning of the labor market Since it takes time to find a close and productive job and becausemoving house is costly many workers commute to distant jobs By contributing to congestion theyaffect the incentives of other workers to accept job offers The quantitative model is calibrated to matchfeatures of the London area and suggests that 25 of wage dispersion and 11 of utility dispersion is aresult of congestion The model predicts that targeted remote working policies can have large welfarebenefits even with a small productivity loss from working at home Focusing only on the congestioneffects of policies may be misleading about their welfare implications due to their effects on workersrsquoprogress up the job ladder
Skill Accumulation in the Market and at Home RampR Journal of Economic Theory
An evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss duringnonemployment I document the link between individualsrsquo outside options and unemploymentduration empirically The theoretical model implies that average reemployment wages are only mildlysensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to durationtwo facts which have been documented in the literature The calibrated model is used to decomposethe declining hazard out of unemployment implying a nontrivial role for duration dependence The
2
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
addition of aggregate shocks leads to an asymmetric response of the unemployment rate during andafter recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis in labor force participation
News and Macroprudential Policy RampR Journal of International Economicswith Jean-Paul LrsquoHuillier and Facundo Piguillem
Motivated by the deregulation of US credit markets at the turn of the century we analyze the cyclicalproperties of constrained optimal debt taxation in a quantitative model with systemic externalitiesWe focus on shocks to future income (news shocks) a salient feature of the US economy during thelate 1990s In good times (positive news) it is optimal to allow for more borrowing in order to allow forconsumption smoothing When borrowing reaches a threshold the economy enters a region wherecrises can occur This pushes the Ramsey planner to tax borrowing Thus the constrained planner taxesborrowing in good times and when debt accumulation is high enough Instead in bad times no taxationis necessary Agents anticipate that their income will be low and they save escaping the possibility of acrisis We contrast our findings to the case of standard contemporaneous shocks to income Whereasunder news shocks it is necessary to tax debt in good times under contemporaneous shocks it isnecessary to tax debt in bad times when agents dig into their precautionary savings to smoothconsumption In a quantitative application to the US economy from 1990 to 2015 we find that abouthalf of the household leveraging can be judged as socially optimal from the perspective of a benchmarkmodel
Work in Progress
Optimal Insurance Against Long-Term Consequences of Job Losswith Javier Fernaacutendez-Blanco
Household Inequality and Firm Savingswith Marco Casiraghi and Facundo Piguillem
Conference and Seminar Presentations
2018 RES Annual Meeting Mannheim Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics SaMAnnual Conference (poster) SED Mexico City Federal Reserve Bank of New York(BBL) Paris School of Economics University of Edinburgh Essex SaM WinterMeeting of the Econometric Society ( = scheduled)
2017 University of Kent Toulouse School of Economics Bristol SaM Workshop RES AnnualMeeting Madrid Workshop in Quantitative Macroeconomics Barcelona GSE SummerForum (SaM) University of Bath Econometric Society European Meeting EuropeanWinter Meeting of the Econometric Society Oxford NuCamp Conference BordeauxWorkshop on Urban Economics and City Growth
2016 SaM Annual Conference (poster) Spring Midwest Macro Meetings North AmericanSummer Meeting of the Econometric Society Mainz Workshop in Labor EconomicsEconometric Society European Meeting
2015 SED Warsaw Cambridge Search and Matching Workshop (poster) EIEF University ofOxford
Referee Service
International Economic Review Labour Economics Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Departmental Service
Macroeconomics Seminar and Workshop Organizer 2017 - present
Languages English (native) Italian (intermediate)
3
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Ole Jann
Nueld College
Oxford OX1 1NF
United Kingdom
olejanneconomicsoxacuk
wwwolejannnet
(Updated October 2018)
Placement director Vincent Crawford vincentcrawfordeconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 279339
Placement director Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Employment2016ndash University of Oxford
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow Nueld College and Department of Economics
Education2016 University of Copenhagen
PhD in Economics supervised by Peter Norman Soslashrensen
2015ndash16 Northwestern University
Visiting Predoctoral Scholar hosted by Alessandro Pavan
2015 Universitagrave Bocconi
EDGE Visiting Fellow hosted by Marco Ottaviani
2014 University of Copenhagen
MSc in EconomicsFinance
2010 Humboldt-University Berlin
BSc in EconomicsBusiness
Research InterestsMicroeconomic theory information economics political economy nancial markets evolutionary eco-
nomics
PublicationsldquoThe Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequencesrdquo (with Benjamin Bossan and Peter
Hammerstein)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
ldquoCorrelated Equilibria in homogenous good Bertrand competitionrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
Working Papers (Available on myWebsite)ldquoWhy Echo Chambers are Usefulrdquo (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
ldquoAn Informational Theory of Privacyrdquo (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
ldquoIs Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Pricesrdquo
ldquoWhy are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpredictabilityrdquo
(with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
1
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
CV Ole Jann
Teaching (Evaluations available on myWebsite)
2017-18 Tutorials at Exeter College and St Catherinersquos College Oxford
2016-19 Microeconomics (1st year MPhil) University of Oxford
2013 LecturerCourse Coordinator Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of
Copenhagen
2012 Teaching Assistant Microeconomics C (3rd year undergraduate) University of Copen-
hagen
Professional Service
Refereeing International Journal of Game Theory Journal of the European Economic Association
Journal of Economic Theory
2017-19 Junior Dean and Member of the Governing Body Nueld College
2016ndash17 Convener of the post-doc seminar in economics University of Oxford
2016-19 Personnel and Domestic Committee Nueld College
2013ndash16 Department Council at the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2012ndash16 PhD Programme Committee at the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Copenhagen
Awards and Honors
2013 Annual Award of the Department of Economics for Excellent Teaching University of Copen-
hagen DKK 15000 (asympUSD 2700)
2012ndash16 Full PhD scholarship from the Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
2007ndash12 Scholarship of the German National Academic Foundation
Seminar Workshops Conferences
2018 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)
University of Bonn seminar (scheduled)
University of Copenhagen seminar
University of Wisconsin-Madison seminar
Transatlantic Theory Workshop Northwestern University
EEA-ESEM Cologne
University of Oxford seminar
2017 Erasmus Accounting and Economics Workshop Rotterdam
EEA-ESEM Lisbon
Barcelona GSE Summer Forum ldquoThe Digital Economyrdquo
2
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
CV Ole Jann
University of Oxford seminar (2x)
2016 SING 12 (European Meeting on Game Theory) Odense
2015 University of Oxford seminar
European Doctoral Group in Economics Annual Workshop Marseille
EEA Mannheim
Bocconi University ad-hoc seminar
References
Margaret MeyerNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
margaretmeyernueldoxacuk
+44 1865 278570
Peter Norman SoslashrensenDepartment of Economics
University of Copenhagen
Oslashster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen Denmark
peternormansorenseneconkudk
+45 3532 3056
Peyton YoungNueld College
University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 1NF
peytonyoungeconomicsoxacuk
+44 1865 271086
Christoph SchottmuumlllerChair of Microeconomics
University of Cologne
Albertus Magnus Platz
50923 Koumlln Germany
cschottmuelleruni-koelnde
+49 221 470 6068
Abstracts (Working Papers)
Why Echo Chambers are Useful (Job Market Paper) (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Why do people appear to forgo information by sorting into ldquoecho chambersrdquo We construct a highly
tractable multi-sender multi-receiver cheap talk game in which players choose with whom to com-
municate We show that segregation into small homogeneous groups can improve everybodyrsquos infor-
mation and generate Pareto-improvements Polarized preferences create a need for segregation un-
certainty about preferences magnies this need Using data from Twitter we show several behavioral
patterns that are consistent with the results of our model
An Informational Theory of Privacy (with Christoph Schottmuumlller) RampR Economic Journal
Privacy of consumers or citizens is often seen as an inecient information asymmetry We challenge
this view by showing that privacy can increase welfare in an informational sense It can also improve
information aggregation and prevent inecient statistical discrimination We show how and when the
dierent informational eects of privacy line up to make privacy ecient or even Pareto-optimal Our
theory can be applied to decide who should have which information and how privacy and information
disclosure should be regulated We discuss applications to online privacy credit decisions and trans-
parency in government
3
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
CV Ole Jann
Is Beauty Contagious How Higher-Order Uncertainty Can Drive Asset Prices
I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices ndash not because anyone believes them but
because they are commonly known without being common knowledge The phenomenon is driven
by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have and
who therefore nd it impossible to ignore pieces of news even though they know them to be false
know that others know that they are false and so on Informative trading becomes unrationalizable
no information is incorporated into the market price I discuss implications for how mass media can
hurt the informational eciency of markets
Why are vulnerable regimes stable Defending against coordinated attacks through unpre-dictability (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
We analyze situations in which a defender faces an attack by a group which can only succeed if enough
people participate The defender can increase his strength but that is costly Examples include attacks
on the stability of political or nancial regimes or problems of discipline or public safety We show that
if the attackers do not observe the defenderrsquos strength there is a unique Nash equilibrium in which
the defender chooses to have almost no strength but attacks almost never occur We suggest that this
insight can explain why regimes that appear highly vulnerable to coordinated attacks can actually
remain stable
Abstracts (Published Papers)
The Evolution of Social Learning and its Economic Consequences (with Benjamin Bossan and
Peter Hammerstein) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol 112 April 2015 pp 266-288
We use an evolutionary model to simulate agents who choose between two options with stochastically
varying payos Two types of agents are considered individual learners who rely on trial-and-error
methods and social learners who imitate the wealthiest sampled individual Agents adapt to changing
environments within one generation by using their respective learning strategy The frequency of the
agent types adapts between generations according to the agentsrsquo acquired wealth During the course
of evolution social learning becomes dominant resulting in three major eects First for better or
worse the decisions of social learners are more exaggerated than those of individual learners Second
social learners react with a delay to changes in the environment Third the behavior of social learners
becomes more and more detached from reality We argue that our model gives insights into economic
systems and markets
CorrelatedEquilibria inhomogenous goodBertrand competition (with Christoph Schottmuumlller)
Journal of Mathematical Economics Vol 57 March 2015 pp 31-37
We show that there is a unique correlated equilibrium identical to the unique Nash equilibrium in the
classic Bertrand oligopoly model with homogeneous goods and identical marginal costs This provides
a theoretical underpinning for the so-called ldquoBertrand paradoxrdquo as well as its most general formulation
to date Our proof generalizes to asymmetric marginal costs and arbitrarily many players in the fol-
lowing way The market price cannot be higher than the second lowest marginal cost in any correlated
equilibrium
MiscellaneaCitizenship German
Languages German (native) English (uent) Danish (uent) French (intermediate) Swedish (inter-
mediate)
4
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
JACQUELYNPLESShttpjacquelynplesscom
jacquelynplessinetoxacuk
UniversityofOxfordPlacementOfficerJohannesAbelerjohannesabelereconomicsoxacuk+441865281440GraduateAdministratorJulieMinnsjulieminnseconomicsoxacuk+441865281162 OfficeContactInformationEagleHouseWaltonWellRoadOxfordOX26EDMobile+447908410125PersonalInformationUnitedStatesCitizenAcademicPositionsandResearchExperience
UniversityofOxfordOxfordMartinFellowampPostdoctoralResearcherInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingOxfordMartinProgrammeonIntegratingRenewableEnergyResearchAssociateofOxCarre(DepartmentofEconomics)2016-presentHarvardUniversityVisitingResearcherintheKennedySchoolofGovernmentPostdoctoralAffiliateoftheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgramFall2018TheWhartonSchoolampKleinmanCenterforEnergyPolicyUniversityofPennsylvaniaResearchAssistanttoArthurvanBenthemSummer2015
Education PhDMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2016
MSMineralandEnergyEconomicsColoradoSchoolofMines2012-2014BAEconomicsandPoliticalScienceUniversityofVermontHonorsCollege2005-2009
References ProfessorCameronHepburn ProfessorMeredithFowlie UniversityofOxford UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley +447960090490cameronhepburnnewoxacuk +1501-642-4820fowlieberkeleyedu ProfessorArthurvanBenthem ProfessorHarrisonFell TheWhartonSchoolUniversityofPennsylvania NorthCarolinaStateUniversity +1215-898-3013arthurvwhartonupennedu +1919-515-4676hfellncsueduResearchFields InnovationEnergyandEnvironmentalEconomicsPublicEconomics TeachingExperience Summer2018 LecturerEnvironmentalEconomicsUniversityofOxfordEnterpriseandthe
EnvironmentSummerSchool Spring2018
Spring2017-182016
LecturerIntroductiontoEconometricsUniversityofOxfordMScQuantitativeSkillsModuleGraderEnergyMarketsUniversityofOxfordMBACourseGraduateTeachingAssistantColoradoSchoolofMinesPrinciplesofEconomics
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
OtherEmployment 2017-
2013-162010-132009-102008
QuartzAssociatesHeadofAnalysisNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryJointInstituteforStrategicEnergyAnalysisResearchEconomistNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesEnergyPolicySpecialistPennsylvaniaHouseofRepresentativesLegislativeAssistantTheWorldBankChiefEconomistrsquosOfficeoftheHumanDevelopmentNetworkIntern
ProfessionalActivities
RefereeingJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagementOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyEcologicalEconomicsJournalofPolicyAnalysisandManagementResourceandEnergyEconomicsTheEnergyJournalEnergyEconomicsEnergyPolicyJournalofRenewableandSustainableEnergyMembershipsAmericanEconomicAssociationAssociationofEnvironmentalampResourceEconomistsConferenceOrganizationldquoCleanEnergyInnovationMakingtheMostofRampDInvestmentsrdquo[inpartnershipwiththeEnergyPolicyInstituteatChicagoClearPathandACCF]2018OtherInitiatedWomeninEconomicsampBusinessdiscussiongroup2015-16
SelectHonorsScholarshipsandFellowships 2018 MarieCurieFellowshipmobilitygrant 2016
201520142012-131520092008
HubertandSarahRisserAwardforldquooutstandingacademicandco-curricularperformancerdquoCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessPEOScholarAwardaninternationalmerit-basedawardforldquowomenwhoareexpectedtomakesignificantcontributionstotheirfieldsrdquoFinalistIAEEBestStudentPaperAwardDarleneReginaPauliScholarshipCSMDivisionofEconomicsandBusinessGerstenAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermonttoldquoaseniordemonstratingoutstandingacademicachievementineconomicsrdquoMiltonJNadwornyAwardgivenbytheDepartmentofEconomicsUnivofVermontforldquoacademicmeritindependenceofminddeterminationintellectualcuriosityandcommitmenttohumanwelfarerdquo
SelectPublications
PlessJandvanBenthemAldquoPass-ThroughasaTestforMarketPowerAnApplicationtoSolarSubsidiesrdquoNBERWorkingPaperNo23260conditionallyacceptedbyAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomicsHepburnCPlessJandPoppD2018ldquoEncouragingInnovationthatProtectsEnvironmentalSystemsFivePolicyProposalsrdquoReviewofEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicy12(1)154-169Heidari-RobinsonSHeywoodSPlessJ2018ldquoHowtoMakeYourPost-MergerReorgaSuccessrdquoHarvardBusinessReview[onlinearticleonly]PlessJandFellH2017ldquoBribesBureaucraciesandBlackoutsTowardsUnderstandingHowFirm-LevelCorruptBehaviorImpactsElectricityReliabilityrdquoResourceandEnergyEconomics4736-55
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
JobMarketPaper
ldquoArelsquoComplementaryPoliciesrsquoSubstitutesEvidencefromRampDSubsidiesintheUKrdquoAbstractGovernmentssubsidizeRampDthroughamixofinterdependentmechanismsbutsubsidyinteractionsarenotwellunderstoodThispaperprovidesthefirstquasi-experimentalevaluationofhowRampDsubsidyinteractionsimpactfirmbehaviorIusefundingrulesandpolicychangesintheUKtoshowthatdirectgrantsandtaxcreditsforRampDarecomplementsforsmallfirmsbutsubstitutesforlargerfirmsIncreasingthegenerosityofbothsubsidytypesmorethandoublessmallfirmsrsquoRampDexpendituresbutforlargerfirmsincreasingtaxcreditratescutsthepositiveeffectofgrantsinhalfIexplorethemechanismsbehindthesefindingsandprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsubsidycomplementarityisconsistentwitheasingfinancialconstraintsforsmallfirmsSubstitutionbylargerfirmsismostconsistentwiththesubsidizationofinfra-marginalRampDexpendituresIruleoutsomealternativeexplanationsSubsidyinteractionsalsoimpactthetypesofinnovationeffortsthatemergewithincreasesinbothsubsidiessmallfirmssteereffortsincreasinglytowardsdevelopingnewgoods(iehorizontalinnovations)asopposedtoimprovingexistinggoods(ieverticalinnovations)AccountingforsubsidyinteractionscouldsubstantiallyimprovetheeffectivenessofpublicspendingonRampD
OtherResearchPapers
ldquoSteeringtheClimateCommentrdquowithLMattauchRvanderPloegNSternandotherssubmittedtotheAmericanEconomicReviewinAugust2018ldquoMissionInnovationNotMissionImpossiblerdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithNatureEnergyldquoIsThistheEndofConventionalWholesaleMarketsrdquowithCHepburnJRhysandNFarrellRampRwithOxfordReviewofEconomicPolicyldquoToBuyorLeaseBusinessModelConsumerPreferencesintheResidentialSolarPVMarketrdquoRampRwithTheEnergyJournal
ResearchinProgress
ldquoRampDSubsidyInteractionsandDirectedTechnologicalChangerdquoldquoDisentanglingUncertaintyandSalienceTheCaseofSolarSelf-Consumptionrdquo(withEMcKenna)ldquoDirectedTechnologicalChangeEvidencefromHorizon2020rdquo(withMMohnenandRMartin)ldquoEnvironmentalPolicyandLaborDemandinChinardquo(withYLu)
SelectConferencePresentationsandAcademicSeminars2018Harvard(HEEPHKS)ASSA(Philadelphia)RoyalEconomicSociety(Brighton)Oxford(Economics)
WorldCongressofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists(Gothenburg)UofKansas(Economics)2017Oxford(Economics)AERE(Pittsburgh)IAEE(Singapore)UniversityofSussex(SPRU)Oxford(INET)2016UofCambridge(JudgeSchoolofBusinessandFacultyofEconomics)Oxford(SaiumldBusinessSchool)U
ofManchester(Economics)AERE(Breckenridge)NorthCarolinaStateUniversity(ARE)ColoradoStateUniversity(DARE)CU-Boulder(Economics)
2014-15AERE(SanDiego)UCLCU-Boulder(Economics)UofVermont(Economics)EnvironmentalandResourceEconomicsWorkshop(Boulder)IAEEBestStudentPaperCompetition(NewYork)
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Anouk S RigterinkPostdoctoral Research Fellow University of Oxford
Department of Economics Manor Road Oxford OX1 3UQ156 Hurst Street Oxford OX4 1HG
Brasenose and New Collegeanoukrigterinkeconomicsoxacuk
anoukrigterinkcom
+44 7 91 6567464
Placement Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
AcademicPositions
University of Oxford Postdoctoral Research Fellow 2016-2019Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre)
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Research Officer 2014-2016
Education London School of Economics and Political Science PhD Development Studies 2014Dissertation Essays on Violent Conflict in Developing CountriesExaminers Macartan Humphreys and Anja Shortland
London School of Economics and Political Science MSc Development ManagementWith Distinction 2009
University of Groningen BA International Relations Cum Laude 2008
ReferencesMacartan HumphreysProfessor of Political ScienceDepartment of Political ScienceColumbia University+1 212 854 3646mh2245columbiaedu
Rick van der PloegProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 281285rickvanderploegeconomicsoxacuk
Tony VenablesBP Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oxford+44 1865 271957tonyvenableseconomicsoxacuk
Diana WeinholdAssociate Professor of Development EconomicsDepartment of International DevelopmentLSE+44 20 7955 6331dweinholdlseacuk
Field Development Economics Natural Resource and Environmental Economics Political Economy
Workingpapers
1 ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organiza-tionsrdquo Job market paper
2 ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict Resolution
3 ldquoThe long-term effect of slavery on violent crimerdquo (with Moamen Gouda)Under review Journal of Quantitative Criminology
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
OngoingProjects
1 ldquoCommunity Forest Monitoring and Awareness of Forest Use Rules in UgandardquoPre-registeredRCT (with Eisenbarth et al) Pre-registered meta-analysis (with Golden et al)
2 ldquoHow does recalling experiences of conflict affect behaviour that aids or hinders post-conflictrecoveryrdquo (with Keyman et al) Pre-registered lab-in-the-field experiment
Abstracts ldquoThe wane of command Evidence on drone strikes and control within terrorist organizationsrdquoJob market paperThis paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders and thereby under-mines control within terrorist organizations affects terrorist attacks The paper exploits a naturalexperiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) lsquohittingrsquo and lsquomissingrsquo ter-rorist leaders in Pakistan Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacksthey commit after a drone lsquohitrsquo on their leader compared to after a lsquomissrsquo This increase amountsto 29 terrorist attacks (43) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike Gametheory provides several explanations for the observed effect Additional analysis of heterogenouseffects across groups and the impact of drone hits on the timing type and target of attacksattacks by affiliated terrorist groups infighting and group splintering indicates that aggravatedproblems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results betterthan alternative theoretical mechanisms
ldquoDiamonds Rebelrsquos and Farmerrsquos Best Friend Impact of variation in the price of a lootablelabour-intensive natural resource on the intensity of violent conflictrdquoRevise and resubmit Journal of Conflict ResolutionThis paper investigates the impact of an increase in the world price of a lsquolootablersquo labour-intensivenatural resource on the intensity of violent conflict It suggests that such a price increase can haveopposite effects at different geographical levels of analysis a decrease in conflict intensity at thecountry level due to rising opportunity costs of rebellion but an increase in conflict intensity inresource-rich sub-national regions as returns to looting rise The paper introduces a new measureof diamond propensity based on geological characteristics which is arguably exogenous to conflictand can capture small-scale labour-intensive production better than existing measures Thestated effects are found for secondary diamonds which are lootable and related to opportunitycosts of fighting but not for primary diamonds which are neither
Grants Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) Metaketa III Natural Resource Governance$235000 (PI with Sabrina Eisenbarth and Chaning Jang) 2017-2019
Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) Urgency Grantpound157000 (Co-applicant PI Mary Kaldor) 2014-2017
Awards ampScholarships
PhD Studentship 2011-2014European Research Council (ERC) Research Programme ldquoSecurity in Transitionrdquo pound39197
Research Grant Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds pound8466 2010-2011
Research Studentship LSE Department of International Development pound15598 2009-2011
Research Student Grant Fundatie van de Vrijvrouwe van Renswoude pound2467 2009
Award for Best Overall Performance LSE Department of International Development 2009
Award for Best Dissertation LSE Department of International Development 2009
Crisis States Research Centre Prize for Best Dissertation LSE 2009
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Publications1 ldquolsquoThe Fear Factor is a Main Thingrsquo How Radio Influences Anxiety and Political Attitudesrdquo
2017 Journal of Development Studies 53(8) 1123-1146 (with Mareike Schomerus)
2 ldquoProbing for Proof Plausibility Principle and Possibility A New Approach to AssessingEvidence in a Systematic Evidence Reviewrdquo 2016 Development Policy Review 34(1)5-27 (with Mareike Schomerus)
3 ldquoSouth Sudanrsquos long crisis of justice Merging notions of lack of socioeconomic justice andcriminal accountabilityrdquo Forthcoming In Nouwen et al eds Making and Breaking Peacein Sudan and South Sudan The lsquoComprehensiversquo Peace Agreement and Beyond BritishAcademy (with Mareike Schomerus)
4 ldquoDoes lsquoSecurityrsquo Imply Safety On the (Lack of) Correlation Between Different Aspects ofSecurityrdquo 2015 Stability International Journal of Security and Development 4(1) Art39
5 ldquoAnd then he switched off the phonerdquo Mobile phones participation and political account-ability in South Sudanrsquos Western Equatoria Staterdquo 2015 Stability International Journalof Security and Development 4(1) Art10 (with Mareike Schomerus)
6 ldquoNatural Resources and Insecurityrdquo 2014 In Kaldor and Rangelov eds Handbook ofHuman Security Policy London Wiley-Blackwell
7 ldquoNatural resources and conflict An overview of controversies consensus and channelsrdquo2010 The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 5(2) 17-22
Teaching Evidence for Public Policy University of Oxford 2017-2019Student evaluation 2017 100 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2018 77 ldquoGoodrdquo ldquoVery goodrdquo or ldquoExcellentrdquo
Economic Development Policy LSE 2013 2015-2016Student evaluation 2013 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 95 ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
International Politics Building Democracies from Conflict LSE 2014-2016Student evaluation 2015 90 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery GoodrdquoStudent evaluation 2016 87 ldquoGoodrdquo or ldquoVery Goodrdquo
Development Management LSE 2014-2015Student evaluation 2015 95 ldquoSatisfiedrdquo or ldquoVery satisfiedrdquo
Research Design and Dissertation LSE 2013-2015
Policy Analysis for International Development University of LondonDistance learning course 2010-2018
Service Peer review Journal of Development Studies Disasters Asian Journal of Comparative PoliticsStability International Journal of Security and Development Extractive Industries and Society
Graduate adviser Brasenose College University of Oxford 2018
Admissions Committee MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2018
Thesis marking MSc Economics for Development University of Oxford 2017-2018
SelectedPresentations
Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference 2018Property and Politics Working Group LSE
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference 2017Conflict Research Society (CRS) Annual Conference
Society for Institutional and Organisational Economics (SIOE) Annual Conference 2016
Research Seminar School of International Development University of East Anglia 2015
Methodology Seminar Conflict Research Group University of Ghent 2013New Wars Old Wars and the Critics Uppsala UniversityData Needs and Gaps in Peace Research Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
New Wars New Peace Seminar 2012Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University
Advanced Graduate Workshop on Poverty Development and Globalization 2010University of Manchester amp Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia UniversityCentre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Annual Conference
PolicyEngagement
Guest of the Chair Kimberley Process Intersessional Meeting 2018
Office of the Commonwealthrsquos Attorney Richmond VAInformal consultation on white paper 2018
Podcast Oxford Martin School 2017ldquoRebelrsquos or farmerrsquos best friend The Janus face of lsquoblood diamondsrsquo and other conflict mineralsrdquo
Blog Monkey Cage Washington Post 2017ldquoIt is not just fake news even real news can warp perceptionsrdquo
Executive Course for Oil Gas and Mining Blavatnik School of Government 2017
Security and Justice Expert Workshop UK Department for International Development 2015
Egmont Expert Seminar on Artisanal diamond mining 2011
Languages Dutch (native) English (fluent) German (beginner) French (beginner) Spanish (beginner)
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
VALERIA RUEDA SCIENCES PO PARIS AND UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Placement Officer
Sciences Po Oxford
Emeric Henry emerichenrysciencespofr +33145495261 Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +441865281440
Graduate Admimnistrator
Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +441865281162
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Born in Manizales Colombia July 25th 1987 Colombian and French citizen
Address Pembroke College St Aldates OX11DW Oxford United-Kingdom Email valeriaruedapmboxacuk Website wwwvaleriaruedaorg
REFERENCES
Post-doc mentor brianahearnpmboxacuk +44 (0) 1865 276435
Yann Algan PhD supervisor yannalgansciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 63 65
Quoc-Anh Do Member of PhD committee quocanhdosciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 83 58
Julia Cageacute Co-author juliacagesciencespofr +33 (0) 1 45 49 52 68
APPOINTMENTS
2015 - present University of Oxford Pembroke College and Economic and Social History Group Rokos Career Development Fellow in Economics
2016 - present University of Oxford Department of Economics and History Faculty Lecturer MPhilMSc Economic and Social History
EDUCATION
2012 2016 Sciences Po PhD in Economics under the supervision of Yann Algan Examiners Yann Algan Sascha Becker Sergei Guriev Nathan Nunn and Paul Seabright
2010 - 2011 Harvard University Visiting graduate student in the Department of Economics
2008 2010 Paris School of Economics Economics)
Graduated with honours
2007 2012 Ecole Normale Supeacuterieure Ulm
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Eacutelegraveve Normalienne (BL) Department of Social Sciences
RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary Development economics economic history and political economy Secondary Economic geography applied econometrics and applied
microeconomics
TEACHING
2015 present Pembroke College University of Oxford College tutor in Development economics and Quantitative economics Undergraduate programs EampM Economics and History and PPE
2016 - present Department of Economics and History Faculty University of Oxford Lecturer in Quantitative Methods for the ESH - MPhilMSc
2013 2015 Sciences Po Teaching assistant for the mandatory undergraduate course in Macroeconomics I wrote all the problem sets and set up the digital content for this course Taught by Yann Algan
2007 2012 Paris School of Economics Teaching assistant for the graduate cou -wrote all the problem sets for this course Taught by Daniel Cohen
2007 2012 Harvard University Teaching assistant for the undergra
PUBLICATIONS
-term effects of the printing press in sub- American Economic Journal Applied Economics (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
-The long-term economic and political shadow of History vol 2 edited by
Michalopoulos and Papaioannou CEPR press (2016) joint with Julia Cageacute
JOB MARKET PAPER
T
ABSTRACT This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa On the one hand missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region On the other hand Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviours that affect the risk of contagion We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century as well as the health facilities they invested in With these data we can address separately these two channels within regions close to historical missionary settlements First we show that proximity to historical missionary health facilities decreases the likelihood of HIV persistence in healthcare provision and safer sexual behaviours in the region explain this result Second
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
we show that regions close to historical missionary settlements exhibit higher likelihood of HIV This effect is driven by the Christian population in our sample This suggests conversion to Christianity as a possible explanatory channel Our findings are robust to alternative specifications addressing selection
Presented at - Seminars Bonn University ESH Oxford seminar series Harvard University Monash University Paris School of Economics Sciences Po University of Warwick Conferences ASREC (Chapman University Los Angeles) Journeacutees LAGV (AMSE Aix-en-Provence) Political Economy of Development workshop (University of Warwick Coventry) World Economic History Conference (MIT Boston)
OTHER RESEARCH PAPERS
-1871
ABSTRACT What is the effect of removing national borders on economic activity at the local level This article studies this question in a unique historical setup the Italian unification During the nineteenth century the Italian peninsula went from being a region mostly dominated by France and the Austrian Empire to an almost completely-unified state in 1861 and fully unified in 1871 This article investigates the effect of this drastic political shift on the spatial distribution of population growth considered a proxy for economic growth at the local level Using the arbitrary location of borders and a difference-in-difference approach we show that proximity to a removed border is on average associated with an increase in population growth This average result masks important heterogeneities First there can be asymmetric effects on each side of a same border Second the effects are the strongest in Piedmont the state that endure the least institutional changes Finally proximity to the border is also associated with increased variability an indication of reallocation of economic activity
Presented at - Seminars Paris School of Economics Tinbergen Institute Conferences Oxford-Warwick-LSE Economic History workshop
ABSTRACT Ethnicity is found to profoundly influence economic and political processes Yet the historical determinants of ethno-political configurations remain poorly understood This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa We hypothesize that ethnic landscape was powerfully shaped by dual economic revolutions from the colonial period the spread of cash crop agriculture and the diffusion of printing and writing technologies We propose that these economic changes shaped ethno-political configurations in two ways On the one hand both economic transformations are hypothesized to have contributed to the politicization of ethnicity by endowing some groups with higher mobilisational capacity On the other hand we expect they had divergent effects on ethnic boundary-making Cash crops led to exclusionary boundaries as ethnicity was used to limit claims on land ownership In contrast printing and writing technologies are hypothesized to have developed more inclusionary ethnic boundaries as the spread and accessibility of language opened the door to new entrants We test these hypotheses by combining new geographic data on the location and intensity of colonial cash crop production and publishing in African languages with group and individual-level data on ethnic politicization salience trust and polarization
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Valeria Rueda Sciences Po and University of Oxford
Presented at - Seminars Princeton seminar in Comparative Politics Conferences American Political Science Association (Boston) African Economic History Network (Bologna) WGAPE (LSE London)
matter how different we are
ABSTRACT Do ancestry differences at the local level have persistent effects on economic success inside the United States Using data from the American Community Survey and genetic and cultural measures of ancestry distance from the recent literature this article shows that the impact on income of ancestry distance at the regional level is small in magnitude and depends on the measure chosen Our estimates capture the effect of the in
results also holds when focusing only on groups of first-generation migrants and when considering alternative specifications This negative finding suggests that on average the cultural difference between migration origins does not appear to be a persistent nor a robust predictor of economic success
SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANTS
2015 present Rokos Career Development Fellowship 5-year post-doc fellowship
2016 2018 John Fell Fund Research fund awarded by the University of Oxford for the research on the long-term effects of mission on HIV
2012 2015 French Ministry of Research and Higher Education PhD scholarship
2010 - 2011 Herchel-Smith Scholarship Student exchange full scholarship between the Eacutecole Normale Supeacuterieure and Harvard University
2005 - 2010 French Ministry of Education - AEFE Undergraduate full scholarship for foreign students
RELEVANT SKILLS AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Programming and software
Advanced ArcGIS ArcPy QGis Stata R Intermediate Bash Python Basic SAS HTML
Languages Spanish (mother language) French (bilingual) English (very advanced)
Referee Economic Journal Explorations in Economic History Journal of African Economies Journal of Development Economics
OTHERS
Translation Collective translation from Spanish edited by Franccedilois Geacuteal Proses Apatrides Eacuteditions Finitude
Interests Cooking Photography (mostly film) yoga
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
1 of 5
KILIAN RIEDER Email kilianriederpmboxacuk
Website httpskilianriedercom
University of Oxford Placement Officer Johannes Abeler johannesabelereconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281440
Graduate Administrator Julie Minns julieminnseconomicsoxacuk +44 1865 281162
Personal Information Date of birth 25091986
Nationality Austrian
Address Pembroke College Oxford OX1 1DW UK
Mobile +43 664 1401603 Tel +43 131336 5725
Education
University of Oxford
2013 ndash 2018 Doctor of Philosophy (DPhilPhD) University College
Thesis advisor Rui Pedro Esteves
Fall 2016 Visiting PhD Student UC Berkeley Department of Economics
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2009 ndash 2011 Dual Masterrsquos degree in international political economy (MSc LSE) and
international economic policy (MA Sciences Po Paris) with distinction
University of Vienna
2011 ndash 2014 Bachelorrsquos degree in mathematical economics (BSc) thesis with honors
Sciences Po Paris (IEP de Paris)
2006 ndash 2009 Bachelorrsquos degree in philosophy politics and economics (BA) cum laude
References
Professor Rui Pedro Esteves (advisor)
Department of Economics University of Oxford
ruiesteveseconomicsoxacuk
Professor Kris James Mitchener
Department of Economics Santa Clara University
kmitchenerscuedu
Professor Catherine Schenk
Faculty of History University of Oxford
catherineschenkhistoryoxacuk
Dr Clemens Jobst
Economic Analysis Austrian National Bank
clemensjobstoenbat
Research Primary fields
Macroeconomics economic history
Secondary fields
Monetary economics financial economics
JOB MARKET PAPER
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind
Quasi-experimental Evidence from Federal Reserve Policies in 1920-21
Are excessive credit booms and leverage in the financial sector better addressed by conventional monetary policy
ldquoleaning against the windrdquo (LAW) or by more targeted prudential policies In this paper I use a natural experiment
to answer this question In 1920 when US monetary policy was still decentralized four Federal Reserve Banks
implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns Another four Reserve Banks used
microprudential policy with the same goal Regional financial segmentation enables me to exploit regression
discontinuities at borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance I
present evidence that microprudential policy caused both bank-level loan growth and leverage to fall significantly
Microprudential policy also reduced the probability of bank failure In contrast LAW did not have a statistically
significant effect on these bank-level outcomes I simulate the impact of both policies on bank-level data in a
stress-testing exercise to explain the channels at play I show that microprudential policy reined in over-extended
banks more effectively than conventional monetary policy because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price
discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties Using city-level data I also find that the two
policies triggered statistically identical real economic costs Hence although successful microprudential policy
had a price it did not inflict greater economic losses than the less effective strategy of ldquoleaning against the windrdquo
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
2 of 5
Awards
Research prizes
bull Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Economic History Association (2018 finalist)
bull Michael Mitterauer Prize Winner Austrian Federal Ministry of Education amp Research (2018)
bull New Researcher Prize Winner Economic History Society (2017)
Scholarships
Otto Harpner Fund (Anglo-Austrian Society) (2016) Graduate Student Assistantship University of
OxfordDepartment of Economics (2016) Julius-Raab-Foundation (2016) Oxford-Swire Graduate
Scholarship (2013-2016) Fulbright PhD Scholarship (2011 declined)
Teaching experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (academic year 20182019)
Courses Applied Macroeconomics Economic History (graduate courses)
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20172018)
Courses Development of the World Economy since 1800 Macroeconomics Microeconomics
University of California Berkeley HSSA Interdisciplinary Teaching Series (fall 2016)
Lecture Fertility Trends During Economic Downturns Recent Evidence
University of Oxford Department of Economics (academic year 20162017)
Course European Economic History since 1870
University of Warwick Department of Economics (spring term 2016)
Course World Economy - Theory and History
Relevant working experience Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (082018 ndash )
Assistant Professor Department of Economics amp Institute for Economic and Social History
University of Oxford Pembroke College (102017 ndash 082018)
Stipendiary Lecturer (Career Development) in Economics
Bank of England (BoE) (072017 ndash 032018)
PhD Fellow Monetary Assessment and Strategy (DG Monetary Analysis)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian National Bank OeNB) (052015 ndash 072015)
Visiting Researcher Economic Analysis Division also junior economist (092011 ndash 082012)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Hungarian National Bank MNB) (072014 ndash 092014)
Visiting Researcher Research Department
European Central Bank (ECB) (062013 ndash 102013)
Banking Supervisor SSM Preparatory Work Force DG Financial Stability
Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) (092012 ndash 102013)
Banking Economist Consolidating Banking Supervision and Standards Division
Fudan University Shanghai (062010 ndash 082010)
Research Assistant School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA)
United States Embassy in France (092009 ndash 022010)
Intern Public amp Cultural Affairs
Austrian Embassy in Spain (062008 ndash 092008)
Intern Political amp Legal Affairs
Austrian Memorial Service and Austrian Social Service Abroad (092005 ndash 082006)
Memorial service Fondation pour la Meacutemoire de la Deacuteportation Paris FR (092005 ndash 022006)
Social service Royal London Society for the Blind Sevenoaks UK (022006 ndash 082006)
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
3 of 5
Other academic work Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) (since 102018)
Co-convener of bi-weekly research seminar in economic history
Project Coordinator The Vienna Real Estate Market 1868-1990
Nuffield College Economic History Seminar (academic year 20162017)
Convener of weekly graduate research seminars
Refereeing (since October 2017) Explorations in Economic History
Biotop (httpbiotopcoen) ndash Collective of Scientists (since 032016)
Co-founder interdisciplinary quantitative research platform for young scientists
Selected research presentations
Banco de Espantildea Fourth Seminar in Economic History (102018 Madrid ES)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (dissertation session) (092018 Montreal CA)
Banque de France Financial Stability Seminar (092018 Paris FR)
World Economic History Congress (WEHC) (072018 Boston US)
Banca drsquoItalia Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium (062018 Rome IT)
WU-Workshop in Applied Econometrics (WUWAETRIX^6) (062018 amp 112017 Vienna AT)
ETH Zurich Applied Macroeconomics Seminar (052018 Zurich Switzerland)
Nuffield College Graduate Economic History Seminar (052018 amp 102015 Oxford UK)
Economic History Society Annual Conference (EHS) (042018 Keele UK amp 032017 London UK)
LSE Seminar in Economic History (112017 amp 022017 London UK)
European Historical Economics Society (EHES) (092017 Tuumlbingen GER)
University of Cambridge Agricliometrics III Conference (042017 Cambridge UK)
All-University of California Economic History Conference ldquo100 Flowersrdquo (122016 Davis US)
University of California Berkeley Economic History Lab Seminar (102016 Berkeley US)
Economic History Association Annual Meeting (EHA poster session) (092016 Boulder US)
Queenrsquos University Belfast Doctoral Colloquium (062016 Belfast UK)
University of Cambridge Center for Financial History (022016 Cambridge UK)
Banque de France Economic Policy and Economic History Conference (122015 Paris FR)
Austrian Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting Financial History Panel (092015 Linz AT)
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (072015 Vienna AT)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) Economic Analysis Seminar (082014 Budapest HU)
Banco de Espantildea Rethinking Financial History Conference (072014 Madrid ES)
IT amp programming skills
LaTeX highly proficient
STATA highly proficient
ArcGIS advanced
Gephi advanced
R advanced
Language skills
German native
English near native
French near native
Spanish superior
Italian beginner
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
4 of 5
Other working papers
1) A Historic(al) Run on Repo Causes of Bank Distress during the Austro-Hungarian
Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
In this paper I draw on newly compiled archival data sets to show that bank failures during the Austro-
Hungarian crisis of 1873 followed mainly from the break-down of a large repo (repurchase agreement)
market on the Viennese stock exchange Repos served the purpose of addressing concerns about after-
market liquidity known to be important in IPO underpricing Credit institutions granted repo loans
against securities that turned into highly illiquid and depreciated collateral after a prime brokerage house
and major repo borrower filed for bankruptcy in May 1873 Banks that were forced to sell repossessed
collateral in response to heavy funding withdrawals had to write-off substantial portions of their repo
portfolios and thus incurred heavy losses I use semi-parametric survival analysis as well as stratification
techniques new to the literature on bank distress to identify the causes of bank failures This paper
constitutes the first study examining a historical repo market crisis and its consequences using
microdata The Austro-Hungarian experience of 1873 suggests that repo markets with short maturities
in which lenders themselves are susceptible to experience rapid funding withdrawals are prone to
sudden break-downs of lending flows My findings resonate with work that emphasizes the role of
market microstructure in explaining the varying degrees of resilience to distress of modern-day short-
term funding markets
2) Haunting the Specter of Credit Rationing Unconventional Last Resort Lending during the
Austro-Hungarian Gruumlnderkrach of 1873
Although central banks may be first-best candidates for the role of a lender of last resort (LLR) during
financial crises they can also face constraints which obviate an elastic supply of liquidity in times of
distress Some of these constraints may be ideational institutional or technical Others are driven by
market characteristics quantity rationing can be the result of asymmetric information problems in
financial markets Credit rationing by the central bank can have severe macroeconomic consequences if
it leads to illiquidity-induced mass failures of banks In this paper I study a historical experiment
implemented to overcome the specter of a credit rationing LLR during the Austro-Hungarian crisis of
1873 I explore unique bank-level information on treatment by a LLR mechanism designed as a public-
private partnership between the central bank and market players Drawing on inverse probability
weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to tease out the causal effect of liquidity support I show that
this unconventional LLR was effective in mitigating bank distress By addressing institutional
constraints and adverse selection problems inhibiting ldquofree lendingrdquo this mechanism worked as a
remedy for the under-provision of a good particularly desirable in times of crises central bank liquidity
3) Managing Moral Hazard in Last Resort Lending Credit Limits as Contingent Rules at the
Austro-Hungarian Bank (with Clemens Jobst Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Moral hazard is a central issue in the literature on last resort lending In this paper we provide a new
explanation for how central banks dealt with moral hazard historically We focus on one specific
component of central banksrsquo counterparty risk frameworks credit limits for discount window customers
We argue that credit limits as operationalized by the Austro-Hungarian Bank (OeUB) after 1878
constituted the backbone of an early form of microprudential regulation that was designed to check
moral hazard in normal times Credit limits empowered the Austro-Hungarian Bank to enforce minimum
liquidity and capital standards for its counterparties at the discount window Rather than contradicting
the tenet of free lending in times of distress credit limits functioned as ldquocontingent rulesrdquo enforced in
normal times limits were increased or lifted during liquidity crises perceived as exogenous Moreover
even during crises the Bank did not simply relax limits for all credit institutions it differentiated
between banks depending on their fundamentals prior to the crisis This study provides the first
economic interpretation and empirical analysis of the credit limit frameworks employed by central banks
in the past
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
Latest version here
Curriculum Vitae Kilian Rieder
5 of 5
4) Was there a Farm Channel to the Great Depression in the United States New Evidence from
County-Level Data on Farm Foreclosures (with Todd Messner UC Berkeley)
In this project we seek to investigate the existence and economic importance of a ldquofarm channelrdquo to the
Great Depression in the United States We bring to bear a novel data set on farm real estate transfers
Produced as a joint project of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics (BEA) and the Work Progress
Administration (WPA) between 1936 and 1937 this unique data set contains detailed annual data on
both voluntary and involuntary transfers of farm real estate at the county-level between 1900 and 1935
The data provides us with a consistent clear and very granular measure of agricultural distress it
contains data on the number and acreage of farm real estate foreclosed subject to bankruptcies or
assigned to a creditor We exploit this county-level variation in combination with instrumental variable
techniques to investigate the importance of farming distress in the run-up to the Great Depression
Preliminary evidence suggests an economically and statistically significant role for the farm channel in
explaining banking sector instability at the county level during the 1920s
5) Frosted Glass or Raised Eyebrow Central Bank Credit Rationing and the Bank of Englandrsquos
Discount Window Policies during the Crisis of 1847 (with Thomas Ryland Bank of England)
Why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises In this
paper we study the Bank of Englandrsquos policy response to the crisis of 1847 a case known as an example
par excellence of central bank credit restrictions The crisis of 1847 is a unique episode during which
the Bank not only documented all successful loan applications but also those demands for credit it had
decided to reject Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design in time (crisis windows vs non-crisis
windows) and conditional logistic regression we exploit an extensive hand-collected loan-level data set
to study the determinants of loan approval Our preliminary findings show that credit rationing due to
residual imperfect information alone is not a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions
during the crisis of 1847 Instead we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that discriminatory credit
rationing on the basis of loan applicantsrsquo type and identity characterized the Bankrsquos policy response
29 October 2018
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