University of Groningen

Interregional migration in IndonesiaWajdi, Nashrul

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Interregional Migration in Indonesia Macro, micro, and agent-based modelling approaches

Nashrul Wajdi

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The research presented in this dissertation was conducted in the Department of Demography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences at the University of Groningen, and funded by the NFP/NUFFIC scholarship grant number: NFP PhD CF 8776.

ISBN 978-94-034-0087-7

ISBN (E-publication) 978-94-034-0086-0

Dutch translation for summary Rik Huizinga, r.p.huizinga@rug.nl

English language editingChapters 1, 5, and 6: Miriam Hils-Cosgrove, miriamhils@gmail.comChapter 2: Wim C.J. Tommassen, w.c.j.tommassen@rug.nl

Cover design and illustrationsEddy Surahman, eddy1806@gmail.com

Interior page layoutNashrul Wajdi

Print Zalsman Groningen B.V., Groningen

© Nashrul Wajdi, 2017 Email: nashrul@bps.go.id and acul.wajdi@yahoo.com

All rights reserved. Save exceptions stated by the law, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system of any nature, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, included a complete or partial transcription, without the prior written permission of the author.

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Interregional Migration in IndonesiaMacro, micro, and agent-based modelling approaches

PhD thesis

to obtain the degree of PhD at theUniversity of Groningenon the authority of the

Rector Magnifi cus Prof. E. Sterkenand in accordance with

the decision by the College of Deans.

This thesis will be defended in public on

Thursday 19 October 2017 at 16.15 hours

by

Nashrul Wajdi

born on 13 December 1979in Lombok Timur, Indonesia

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SupervisorsProf. dr. C.H. Mulder Prof. dr. L.J.G. van Wissen

Co-supervisorProf. S. Moertiningsih Adioetomo, SE, MA, PhD

Assessment CommitteeProf.dr. R.L. Holzhacker Prof. dr. P. Hooimeijer Prof. Ir. B. Hari Wibisono, MUP, MSc, PhD

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Fabi-ayyi ala-i rabbikumatukadzhibaan Then which of the Blessings of your

Lord will you both deny?

Surah Ar-Rahman [55:78]

To family and friends

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Overview of the chapters

The four empirical chapters included in this PhD dissertation are slightly diff erent versions of the following publications and manuscripts:

Chapter 2Wajdi, N., van Wissen, L.J.G., & Mulder, C.H. (2015). Interregional Migration Flows in Indonesia. Sojourn: Journal of Social Issues in Southeast Asia, 30 (2): 371-422.

Chapter 3Wajdi, N., Adioetomo, S.M., & Mulder, C.H. (published online before print, 2017). Gravity models of interregional migration in Indonesia. BIES: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2017.1298719.

Chapter 4Wajdi, N., Mulder, C.H., & Adioetomo, S.M. (2017). Inter-regional migration in Indonesia: A micro approach. Journal of Population Research, 34(3): 253-277. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-017-9191-6.

Chapter 5Wajdi, N., & van Wissen, L.J.G. (2017). An agent-based model of interregional migration in Indonesia. A preliminary version of this chapter was presented at Dutch Demography Day 2016, Utrecht, The Netherlands. The latest version of this chapter was presented at the 6th Indonesian Regional Science Association (IRSA) International Institute annual conference on 17-18 July 2017 in Manado, North Sulawesi, Indonesia.

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Table of contents

Overview of the chapters vii Table of contents viiList of tables xList of fi gures xi

Chapter 1. Introduction 11.1. Background 21.2. Previous research 41.3. Scope of the study 10

Chapter 2. Interregional Migration Flows in Indonesia 232.1. Introduction 252.2. Literature review 25 2.3. Data and methodology 30 2.4. Results 33 2.5. Conclusion 48

Chapter 3. Gravity Models of Interregional Migration in Indonesia 55 3.1. Introduction 57 3.2. Theoretical background 583.3. Data and method 65 3.4. Results 70 3.5. Conclusion and discussion 76

Chapter 4. Interregional Migration in Indonesia: A Micro Approach 83 4.1. Introduction 85 4.2. Theoretical background 864.3. Data, variables, and method 90 4.4. Results 94 4.5. Conclusion and discussion 105

Chapter 5. Interregional Migration in Indonesia: An Agent-based Modelling Approach 111 5.1. Introduction 113 5.2. Model description and the scenarios 1155.3. Implementation and results 1265.4. Conclusion 150 5.5. Discussion and possible model extensions 151

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Chapter 6. Conclusion and Discussion 157 6.1. Introduction 158 6.2. Summary of the fi ndings 1596.3. Discussion of the fi ndings 1636.4. Discussion on data, methods, and opportunities for future

research 168 6.5. Policy implications 170

Nederlandse samenvatting 176Ringkasan dalam Bahasa Indonesia 178Appendices 181Acknowledgments 251

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TABLE 1.1. Summary information on the division of Indonesia into 13 regions 14TABLE 2.1. Summary of population redistribution phases, their

characteristics and indicators 29TABLE 2.2. The odds, odds ratios and ratios of odds ratios of migrant status,

origin and time 34TABLE 2.3. Regression coeffi cient of saturated multinomial logit of Origin

and Destination ([O][D]), 2005-2010 40TABLE 2.4. Regression coeffi cient of saturated multinomial logit of Origin,

Destination and Time ([O][D][T=1]), 2000-2005 41TABLE 2.5. Regression coeffi cient of saturated multinomial logit of Origin,

Destination and Time ([O][D][T=2]), 2005-2010 42TABLE 2.6. Total Flows Gini Index Values for 1995-2000, 2000-2005 and

2005-2010 Inter-regional Migration in Indonesia 45TABLE 3.1. Summary of the data source for explanatory variables 66TABLE 3.2. Summary of explanatory variables expected results 68TABLE 3.3. Descriptive statistics of the variables 71TABLE 3.4. Poisson regression results for basic and modifi ed gravity models 72TABLE 4.1. Defi nition of variables 93TABLE 4.2. Multinomial logit regression of the likelihood of migrating from

Jakarta to: (i) another metro area within commuting distance, (ii) another metro area, and (iii) a non-metro area (odds ratios) 98

TABLE 4.3. Multinomial logit regression of the likelihood of migrating from a metro area to: (i) Jakarta, (ii) another metro area, and (iii) a non-metro area (odds ratios) 100

TABLE 4.4. Multinomial logit regression of the likelihood of migrating from a non-metro area to: (i) Jakarta, (ii) another metro area, and (iii) a non-metro area (odds ratios) 102

TABLE 5.1. Linear regression results for out-migration rate, 1980-2010 120TABLE 5.2. Initialisation for population, initial vs. real data 127TABLE 5.3. Typology of the focus of interregional in- and out-migration fi elds

based on the in- and out- migration indices 145

List of tables

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List of Figures

FIGURE 1.1. Map of Indonesia, showing the regions used in analysis, with an inset showing a map of Mebidangro 16

FIGURE 1.2. Map of Java showing the regions used in the analysis 16FIGURE 2.1. Inter-regional migration fl ows in Indonesia 1995-2000 35FIGURE 2.2. Inter-regional migration fl ows in Indonesia 2000-2005 35FIGURE 2.3. Inter-regional migration fl ows in Indonesia 2005-2010 36FIGURE 2.4. Migration Field Gini Index Values, 1995-2000, 2000-2005

and 2005-2010 46FIGURE 4.1. Standardised percentage of people migrating from Jakarta

by age group 95FIGURE 4.2. Standardised percentage of people migrating from other

metros by age group 95FIGURE 4.3. Standardised percentage of people migrating from non-

metros by age group 96FIGURE 5.1. Diagram for the agent-based model for interregional

migration in Indonesia 116FIGURE 5.2. Population density and the out-migration rate in Indonesia,

1980-2010 119FIGURE 5.3. Population density and in-migration rates in Indonesia,

1980-2010 122FIGURE 5.4. Diff erent thresholds for various scenarios 125FIGURE 5.5. Observed out-migration rate vs simulated out-migration rate

for each region in Indonesia in 2010 128FIGURE 5.6. Observed in-migration rate vs simulated in-migration rate

for each region in Indonesia in 2010 129FIGURE 5.7. Observed migration fl ows (left), simulated migration fl ows

(right) 130FIGURE 5.8.1. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate

(middle), and net migration rate (right) for Jakarta 131FIGURE 5.8.2. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate

(middle), and net migration rate (right) for Bodetabek 131FIGURE 5.8.3. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate

(middle), and net migration rate (right) for Bandung Raya 132FIGURE 5.8.4. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate

(middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of West Java and Banten 132

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FIGURE 5.8.5. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Kedungsepur 132

FIGURE 5.8.6. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of Central Java and Yogyakarta 132

FIGURE 5.8.7. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Gerbangkertosusila 133

FIGURE 5.8.8. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of East Java 133

FIGURE 5.8.9. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Mebidangro 133

FIGURE 5.8.10. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of Sumatera 133

FIGURE 5.8.11. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Kalimantan 134

FIGURE 5.8.12. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Sulawesi 134

FIGURE 5.8.13. Simulated out-migration rate (left), in-migration rate (middle), and net migration rate (right) for Rest of Indonesia 134

FIGURE 5.9. Map of Indonesia (above) and map of Java (below) showing areas with diff erent groups based on the observed patterns of net migration rate 135

FIGURE 5.10.1. The simulated out-migration rate from 2010-2035 for the baseline scenario BS 137

FIGURE 5.10.2. The simulated out-migration rate from 2010-2035 for scenario 1 Sc1 138

FIGURES 5.10.3.

The simulated out-migration rate from 2010-2035 for scenario 2 Sc2 139

FIGURE 5.11. The intercepts of saturated multinomial logit of regions in Indonesia by Destination ([O][D]), 2025-2030 141

FIGURE 5.12. The raw coeffi cients for the out-migration component fl ow index (left), the raw coeffi cients for the in-migration component fl ows index (middle), and the raw coeffi cients for the total fl ow index (right) for the 2010–2035 144

FIGURE 5.13. Map of Indonesia (above) and map of Java (below) showing regions based on the typology in the migration system in 2010 146

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FIGURE 5.14. Map of Indonesia (above) and map of Java (below) showing regions based on the typology in the migration system in2035 147

FIGURE 5.15. Map of Indonesia (above) with a map of Java (below) showing the percentage diff erences of population growth between the offi cial population projection and the baseline scenario of the simulation in the 2010-2035 period 149

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