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Page 1 of 6
February 27, 2019
Technology - Small Caps
Gianluca Tucci | 647.794.1926 | [email protected] Rob Goff | 416-933-3351| [email protected]
Universal mCloud Corp.
Enters Oil, Gas & Refining Markets with Targeted 3-Year US$15M Global Licensing Agreement with Fulcrum Automation Technologies
Projected Return: 142%
Event: MCLD announced an agreement. All figures are in C$ unless otherwise noted.
Investment Thesis: We continue to forecast strong shareholder returns as mCloud gains traction and scale, over time, as a global IoT connector of assets onto the AssetCare platform. MCLD had a transformational 2018 with four acquisitions announced (nGrain, Agnity, Ascent and CSA) – we expect the remaining two (CSA and Ascent) to close in short order with the company focused on closing CSA next. The scale of the US$15M contract is significant considered against the enterprise value at $29M before considering the potential additional traction in the oil and gas vertical.
Update: MCLD and Fulcrum signed a three year renewable global services agreement targeted at US$15M to Fulcrum’s oil and gas customers globally. Fulcrum will use AssetCare to expand its developing network of well-established service providers focusing on global, blue-chip oil, gas and refining companies. Fulcrum will retain global exclusivity for AssetCare in the oil, gas, and refining industry – exclusivity is contingent on Fulcrum providing US$5M or more in AssetCare subscriptions every 12 months. Initial technology applications/customers/targets have been identified. We estimate ~850 assets in oil/gas/refining would have to be connected to represent an annual opportunity of ~US$5M and note the MRR of an oil/gas/refining connected asset is multiples greater than that of connected buildings. Gross margins to MCLD in oil/gas/refining should be ~65%. We view this as a firm positive in expanding AssetCare’s reach and addressable opportunity and would expect resulting announcements in 2H19. We expect Q418 results by end of April and look for additional commentary on its conference call.
SCN: As announced on April 3, 2018 (see note here), MCLD is partnering with SCN to bring its Smart Buildings HVAC solutions to China. SCN is one of the top 20 commercial building contractors in China with a well-established reputation for its high-quality design, construction work and innovative building technology. SCN has received multiple prestigious awards in China and holds the highest business ranking in the People's Republic of China. We look for continued developments in China, over time, as MCLD leverages the breadth of its SCN relationship in the region with some of the largest retailers in the country.
Agnity Global: On June 21, 2018, MCLD announced the signing of a binding agreement to acquire 100% ownership of the Agnity Global royalty agreement from Flow Capital (FW-TSXV, NR). Agnity is a developer of LTE/4G/5G mobile IoT applications. Prior to this transaction, MCLD and Agnity maintained a relationship as technology partners – Agnity provided the mobile apps that supported the AssetCare solution. Agnity Global’s partners include marquee names such as Nokia (NOK-HEL, NR), Ericsson (ERIC.B-OME, NR), Tech Mahindra (532755-BO, NR), Ribbon Communications (RBBN-US, NR), and Honeywell (HON-US. NR).
CSA: MCLD signed an LOI to acquire CSA, Inc., a global leader in intelligent 3D and laser scanning software, on January 11, 2018. The acquisition is expected to enhance AssetCare’s offering by adding 3D capabilities with nGrain’s leading-edge AI skillset, in direct support of assets. The 3D expansion will support the use of AI for accurately detecting asset damage, tracking asset health issues, and assisting field services with remote guidance on AssetCare Mobile.
MCLD-TSXV: $0.33
Speculative Buy $0.80 Target
Source: Consensus Data - FactSet, Historicals-
Company Filings, Forecasts/Estimates-
Echelon Wealth Partners estimates.
Universal mCloud Corp. (MCLD-TSXV) | February 27, 2019
Page 2 of 6
Gianluca Tucci | 647.794.1926 | [email protected] Rob Goff | 416-933-3351| [email protected]
Valuation
MCLD is currently trading at a 2019E EV/Sales of 1.4x and EV/EBITDA of 23.2x versus its SCM/SaaS comparables at 5.9x/25.9x and 8.1x/53.3x, respectively.
Exhibit 1 – Global Supply Chain Management (SCM) and SaaS Comparables
Source: Consensus Data - FactSet, note that TCS is covered by Amr Ezzat.
SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT LTM Rev EV/Rev EV/EBITDA P/E
Ticker Price Mkt Cap (Local $M) 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Descartes Systems Group Inc. DSG-CA 45.53 3,500 344 9.8 8.3 7.5 28.7 23.4 20.7 83.2 61.9 51.2
TECSYS Inc. TCS-CA 13.31 174 71 1.9 1.5 NM 23.7 12.5 NM 57.0 22.4 NM
Kinaxis, Inc. KXS-CA 82.55 2,153 196 9.9 8.3 6.9 35.8 28.9 23.3 66.3 51.0 42.4
BSM Technologies Inc. GPS-CA 0.93 75 60 1.2 1.1 1.1 13.2 13.4 11.0 NM NM NM
Blackline Safety Corp. BLN-CA 5.11 241 17.8 9.1 5.6 3.2 NM NM NM NM NM NM
BeWhere Holdings, Inc. BEW-CA 0.30 19 1.3 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Memex Inc. OEE-CA 0.06 7 2.9 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
TrackX Holdings Inc. TKX-CA 0.37 26 5.7 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Manhattan Associates, Inc. MANH 54.33 3,532 559 6.3 6.1 6.0 21.6 27.0 25.9 30.4 37.8 36.7
Wisetech Global Ltd. WTC-AU 18.57 5,591 66 25.3 16.6 12.9 NM 50.8 37.5 NM NM 65.4
SPS Commerce, Inc. SPSC 107.36 1,907 248 6.9 6.2 5.7 33.4 26.9 23.0 NM 51.4 44.2
Echo Global Logistics, Inc ECHO 24.50 682 2,440 0.3 0.3 0.3 8.4 8.4 8.0 13.0 13.4 12.5
Amber Road, Inc. AMBR 9.86 275 85 3.4 3.2 3.0 NM NM NM NM NM NM
AVERAGES: 7.8 5.9 4.9 22.5 25.9 21.4 36.6 38.4 40.2
SOFTWARE-AS-A-SERVICE (SaaS)
Mkt Cap LTM Rev EV/Rev EV/EBITDA P/E
Ticker Price (Local $M) (Local $M) 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Descartes Systems Group Inc. DSG-CA 45.53 3,500 344 9.8 8.3 7.5 28.7 23.4 20.7 83.2 61.9 51.2
TECSYS Inc. TCS-CA 13.31 174 71 1.9 1.5 NM 23.7 12.5 NM 57.0 22.4 NM
Nubeva Technologies Ltd. NBVA-CA 0.35 15 0.5 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Universal mCloud Corp. MCLD-CA 0.33 21 5 4.4 1.4 1.1 NM NM 6.7 NM NM NM
kneat.com, Inc. KSI-CA 1.08 37 1 NM 21.0 6.5 NM NM NM NM NM NM
Shopify, Inc. Class A SHOP-CA 244.14 26,850 1,391 12.4 8.9 6.8 348.7 235.7 119.6 484.6 438.0 216.4
Kinaxis, Inc. KXS-CA 82.55 2,153 196 9.9 8.3 6.9 35.8 28.9 23.3 66.3 51.0 42.4
People Corporation PEO-CA 7.90 479 138 3.9 3.2 2.8 18.3 14.5 12.4 NM NM 33.8
Benefitfocus, Inc. BNFT 57.80 1,847 259 7.3 6.3 5.4 182.1 89.2 52.1 NM NM NM
salesforce.com, inc. CRM 163.00 124,695 12,530 9.7 8.1 6.8 43.4 34.8 28.0 62.5 59.3 47.4
ServiceNow, Inc. NOW 236.21 42,352 2,609 15.8 12.0 9.4 61.2 44.5 33.2 94.9 76.2 55.4
Workday, Inc. Class A WDAY 195.12 42,536 2,621 15.0 11.9 9.7 90.3 63.7 53.6 153.6 120.4 88.5
Splunk Inc. SPLK 135.97 20,094 1,601 10.8 8.7 7.2 84.6 60.2 41.3 116.5 84.2 63.5
Veeva Systems Inc Class A VEEV 119.72 17,396 781 20.4 17.1 14.5 55.8 46.3 38.8 73.4 62.9 53.8
Ultimate Software Group, Inc. ULTI 331.48 10,365 781 9.0 7.6 6.3 37.2 31.2 25.3 56.2 53.6 44.3
Tableau Software, Inc. Class A DATA 129.98 11,261 1,155 8.4 7.1 6.0 52.2 NM 34.1 83.3 NM 57.4
Aspen Technology, Inc. AZPN 100.78 7,019 781 14.7 13.1 13.1 30.7 25.9 26.0 43.6 28.6 29.3
Box, Inc. Class A BOX 24.33 3,766 781 5.5 4.6 3.9 NM 65.2 37.5 NM NM 110.0
Cornerstone Ondemand, Inc. CSOD 56.37 3,304 538 6.0 5.7 5.0 34.2 25.1 18.8 76.2 57.8 39.5
Upland Software, Inc. UPLD 34.75 751 65 5.7 4.4 4.3 16.0 12.1 11.2 21.7 17.5 17.6
Channeladvisor Corporation ECOM 13.15 360 131 2.4 2.3 2.1 31.8 22.6 17.5 NM 53.3 36.3
AVERAGES: 9.8 8.1 6.9 74.8 53.3 35.8 111.1 91.9 62.4
Universal mCloud Corp. (MCLD-TSXV) | February 27, 2019
Page 3 of 6
Gianluca Tucci | 647.794.1926 | [email protected] Rob Goff | 416-933-3351| [email protected]
Universal mCloud Corp. – Tear Sheet (MCLD-TSXV, SPEC BUY, $0.80 PT)
Source: Consensus Data - FactSet, Historicals- Company Filings, Forecasts/Estimates-Echelon Wealth Partners estimates.
Company Description Consensus Current Return
Rating:
Target: 0.80$ 142%
Median: 0.80 142%
High: 0.80 142%
Low: 0.80 142%
Buy 1
Hold 0
Sel l 0
# of Ratings 1
Financial Summary/Key Metrics 2016 2017 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Top Inst. Ownership % Held
Total Revenue - 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 3.9 5.8 18.8 24.3 29.2 #N/A #N/A
Growth y/y 28% 449% 50% 222% 30% 20%
Consensus
Gross Margin NA 54.3% 83.7% 58.3% 80.5% 66.0% 69.1% 66.5% 67.5% 68.5%
Adj. EBITDA (0.2) (3.9) (1.5) (2.6) (2.1) (0.0) (6.2) 1.1 3.8 6.3
Growth y/y 232.9% 66.5%
Consensus
Diluted EPS (0.03) (0.22) (0.03) (0.05) (0.04) (0.01) (0.09) (0.00) 0.02 0.05
Growth y/y -575.9% 123.5%
Consensus
Net Debt 0.1 0.0 (1.5) (1.8) (0.0) (0.5) (0.5) (0.3) (2.4) (6.6) Key Statistics Value
Capex - - 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 52 Wk High 0.63
52 Wk Low 0.28
YTD Chg. 14%
Balance Sheet 2016 2017 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 1 Yr. Chg. -12%
Cash 0.0 0.1 1.7 1.8 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 2.4 6.7 Beta 0.06
Trade & Other Receivables 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 4.9 4.9 6.3 7.8 9.4 Market Cap 22
Total Current Assets 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.0 1.3 5.7 5.7 7.0 10.6 16.4 EV 29
Shares Outstanding (M) 66
Total Assets 0.0 2.8 7.9 8.3 6.9 11.3 11.3 12.7 16.5 22.5 LTM Dividend 0
Dividend Yield 0.0%
Deferred Revenue - - 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1
Trade & Other Payables 0.1 2.4 3.0 2.0 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 Valuation 2018E 2019E
Total Current Liabilities 0.2 4.0 5.0 3.2 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 EV/Rev 5.0 1.6
Total Liabilities 0.2 4.0 5.1 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.6 EV/EBITDA (4.7) 25.9
Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity 0.0 2.8 7.9 8.3 6.9 11.3 11.3 12.7 16.5 22.5 P/E (3.6) (69.4)
Comparables
Multiples Analysis 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019
MCLD-CA 0.33 0.80 0.0% 0% -12% -3% 14% -12% 1 5 (3) (5) (0.18) (0.07)
TRAK-CA 0.37 0.0% 0% 12% 30% 6% -50% NA NA NA NA NA NA
TKX-CA 0.37 0.0% 22% -1% 9% 4% 35% NA NA NA NA NA NA
OEE-CA 0.06 0.0% 58% 71% 140% 200% -33% 1 4 (3) (4) (0.15) (0.07)
GE 10.66 0.4% 9% 21% 46% 46% -24% 121,615 3 11,942 (3) 0.62 (0.02)
HON 153.92 2.1% 0% 9% 7% 17% 3% 41,802 36,889 8,998 8,729 8.01 7.96
Comparables
Multiples Analysis 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019
MCLD-CA 24 NM NM 35.0 5.0 NM NM NM NM
TRAK-CA 9 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
TKX-CA 20 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
OEE-CA 5 NM NM 3.8 1.2 NM NM NM NM
GE 154,646 0.7% 4.2% 1.3 NM 13.0 NM 17.1 14.8
HON 121,391 5.4% 5.2% 2.9 3.3 13.5 13.9 19.2 19.3
Price
EV
(US$M)
Spec Buy
Consensus Distribution
FCF Yield EV/Rev EV/EBITDA P/E
Return Rev (US$M) EBITDA (US$M) EPS (US$)Div YieldTarget
mCloud is headquartered in Vancouver, BC with technology and operations
centers in San Francisco, CA and Bris tol , PA. mCloud is an IoT connected asset
care cloud solution company uti l i zing connected IoT devices , leading deep
energy analytics , secure mobi le and 3D technologies that ra l ly a l l asset
stakeholders around an Asset-Circle-of-Care™, providing complete real -time
and his torica l data coupled with guidance and advice-based deep analytics
and diagnostics resulting in optimal performance and care of cri tica l
equipment. It's a l l about the asset. The powerful and secure AssetCare™
environment is access ible everywhere, 24/7 through standard mobi le devices ,
ruggedized headsets , and web browsers .0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19
Vol
ume
(M)
Pric
e (C
$)
Universal mCloud Corp. (MCLD-TSXV) | February 27, 2019
Page 4 of 6
Gianluca Tucci | 647.794.1926 | [email protected] Rob Goff | 416-933-3351| [email protected]
Important Information and Legal Disclaimers
Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. is a member of IIROC and CIPF. The documents on this website have been prepared for the viewer only as an example of strategy consistent with our recommendations; it is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular investing strategy. Any opinions or recommendations expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. cannot accept any trading instructions via e-mail as the timely receipt of e-mail messages, or their integrity over the Internet, cannot be guaranteed. Dividend yields change as stock prices change, and companies may change or cancel dividend payments in the future. All securities involve varying amounts of risk, and their values will fluctuate, and the fluctuation of foreign currency exchange rates will also impact your investment returns if measured in Canadian Dollars. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, investments may increase or decrease in value and you may lose money. Data from various sources were used in the preparation of these documents; the information is believed but in no way warranted to be reliable, accurate and appropriate. Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. employees may buy and sell shares of the companies that are recommended for their own accounts and for the accounts of other clients.
Echelon Wealth Partners compensates its Research Analysts from a variety of sources. The Research Department is a cost centre and is funded by the business activities of Echelon Wealth Partners including, Institutional Equity Sales and Trading, Retail Sales and Corporate and Investment Banking.
Research Dissemination Policy: All final research reports are disseminated to existing and potential clients of Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. simultaneously in electronic form. Hard copies will be disseminated to any client that has requested to be on the distribution list of Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. Clients may also receive Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. research via third party vendors. To receive Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. research reports, please contact your Registered Representative. Reproduction of any research report in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.
Canadian Disclosures: To make further inquiry related to this report, Canadian residents should contact their Echelon Wealth Partners professional representative. To effect any transaction, Canadian residents should contact their Echelon Wealth Partners Investment advisor.
U.S. Disclosures: This research report was prepared by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities discussed herein. Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States and is not be subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. Any resulting transactions should be effected through a U.S. broker-dealer.
U.K. Disclosures: This research report was prepared by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. ECHELON WEALTH PARTNERS INC. IS NOT SUBJECT TO U.K. RULES WITH REGARD TO THE PREPARATION OF RESEARCH REPORTS AND THE INDEPENDENCE OF ANALYSTS. The contents hereof are intended solely for the use of, and may only be issued or passed onto persons described in part VI of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities discussed herein.
Copyright: This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of Echelon Wealth Partners.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Company: Universal mCloud Corp. | MCLD:TSXV I, Gianluca Tucci, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that I have not, am not, and will not receive, directly or indirectly, compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendations or views in this report. I, Rob Goff, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that I have not, am not, and will not receive, directly or indirectly, compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendations or views in this report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Is this an issuer related or industry related publication? Issuer
Does the Analyst or any member of the Analyst’s household have a financial interest in the securities of the subject issuer? If Yes: 1) Is it a long or short position? No position; and, 2) What type of security is it? None.
No
Does the Analyst or household member serve as a Director or Officer or Advisory Board Member of the issuer? No
Does Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. or the Analyst have any actual material conflicts of interest with the issuer? No
Does Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. and/or one or more entities affiliated with Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. beneficially own common shares (or any other class of common equity securities) of this issuer which constitutes more than 1% of the presently issued and outstanding shares of the issuer?
No
During the last 12 months, has Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. provided financial advice to and/or, either on its own or as a syndicate member, participated in a public offering, or private placement of securities of this issuer?
Yes
During the last 12 months, has Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. received compensation for having provided investment banking or related services to this Issuer? Yes
Has the Analyst had an onsite visit with the Issuer within the last 12 months? Vancouver head office visit February 2018. Yes
Has the Analyst or any Partner, Director or Officer been compensated for travel expenses incurred as a result of an onsite visit with the Issuer within the last 12 months? No
Has the Analyst received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months? No
Is Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. a market maker in the issuer’s securities at the date of this report? No
Universal mCloud Corp. (MCLD-TSXV) | February 27, 2019
Page 5 of 6
Gianluca Tucci | 647.794.1926 | [email protected] Rob Goff | 416-933-3351| [email protected]
RATING DEFINITIONS
Buy The security represents attractive relative value and is expected to appreciate significantly from the current price over the next 12 month time horizon.
Speculative Buy The security is considered a BUY but in the analyst’s opinion possesses certain operational and/or financial risks that are higher than average.
Hold The security represents fair value and no material appreciation is expected over the next 12-18 month time horizon.
Sell The security represents poor value and is expected to depreciate over the next 12 month time horizon.
Under Review While not a rating, this designates the existing rating and/or forecasts are subject to specific review usually due to a material event or share price move.
Tender Echelon Wealth Partners recommends that investors tender to an existing public offer for the securities in the absence of a superior competing offer.
Dropped Coverage Applies to former coverage names where a current analyst has dropped coverage. Echelon Wealth Partners will provide notice to investors whenever coverage of an issuer is dropped.
RATINGS DISTRIBUTION
Recommendation Hierarchy Buy Speculative Buy Hold Sell Under Review Restricted Tender
Number of recommendations 52 41 11 0 24 2 0
% of Total (excluding Restricted) 41% 32% 9% 0% 19%
Number of investment banking relationships 11 13 1 0 9 2 0
% of Total (excluding Restricted) 32% 38% 3% 0% 26%
PRICE CHART, RATING & PRICE TARGET HISTORY
Date Target (C$) Rating
* 29-Jan-18 1.25$ SPEC BUY
* 22-Jun-18 1.50$ SPEC BUY
26-Sep-18 1.00$ SPEC BUY
28-Nov-18 0.80$ SPEC BUY
Coverage initiated: 01/29/2018 Data sourced from FactSet
*Prior analyst PT
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
Universal mCloud Corp. (TSXV:MCLD)
Price Target (C$)
Universal mCloud Corp. (MCLD-TSXV) | February 27, 2019
Page 6 of 6
Gianluca Tucci | 647.794.1926 | [email protected] Rob Goff | 416-933-3351| [email protected]
Toronto Wealth Management
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