UnitedStates AMERICAS MarketBeat Retail Q12015 · Under Construction 26.5 MSF 20.8 MSF Average Asking Rent (NNN, Annual) $24.11 $24.74 Lowest Vacancy in Six Years Despite Cloudier

MARKETBEATU.S. Shopping Center Snapshot Q4 2015

National (Yr/Yr Chg.)

National Shopping Center Market

Rental Rate vs. Overall Vacancy

Availability by Type

cushmanwakefield.com

Q4 14 Q4 15 12-Month Forecast

GDP Growth 2.5% 1.8%

CPI Growth 1.6% -0.4%

Consumer Spending Growth

3.2% 2.6%

Retail Sales Growth 4.3% 1.8%

Q4 14 Q4 15 12-Month Forecast

Vacancy Rate 8.3% 8.0%

Net Absorption 14.3 MSF 9.8 MSF

Under Construction 26.5 MSF 20.8 MSF

Average Asking Rent (NNN, Annual)

$24.11 $24.74

Lowest Vacancy in Six Years Despite Cloudier OutlookAs the fourth quarter of 2015 (Q4 2015) came to a close, U.S.

shopping center vacancy was 8.0%, unchanged from the third

quarter of the year and marking the 15th consecutive quarter of

steady or declining vacancy in the marketplace. Cushman &

Wakefield is currently tracking over 314 million square feet (MSF)

of available space in the over 3.9 billion square feet of shopping

center space (including community/neighborhood, power/regional

strip and lifestyle centers) across more than 65 major U.S.

markets. During Q4 2015, availability declined slightly—by roughly

2.3 MSF—but the decline was not enough to push the overall

vacancy rate upward. Indeed, since peaking at 10.3% in Q1 2010,

shopping center vacancy has fallen in 20 of the last 23 quarters.

The shopping center market recorded nearly 9.8 MSF of

occupancy growth in Q4 2015, bringing annual net absorption for

2015 to just under 39 MSF. This is 17.5% below the 47 MSF of

occupancy growth posted in 2014 but well above the 33 MSF of

positive annual net absorption that the market has averaged since

the current expansion phase began in 2010.

Over 25.9 MSF of new shopping center space was added to

inventory in 2015 and new product continued to be a major driver

of occupancy growth. The vacancy rate in new projects delivered

in 2015 was roughly 7.5% at year end. In general, developers are

not building new projects without significant pre-leasing

commitments from both anchor and inline tenants, even though the

amount of speculative inline shop space in new developments is

increasing slightly. In addition, user demand remains white-hot for

new, Class A or premium space with most tenants willing to pay a

premium for quality product even where affordable Class B or

secondary locations may be available at considerably lower rents.

Over half of the new development that we tracked in 2015 was in

the form of expansions of existing shopping centers, typically in

dominant Class A projects.

We are currently tracking 20.8 MSF of new shopping center space

under construction and anticipate that final delivery total for 2016

will approach the level in 2015. A slight uptick in new, single-family

home construction in 2016 may lead to a modest increase in new,

ground-up development in suburban markets; however, most

planned projects that we are tracking remain within the urban core

or mature outlying communities.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

$17

$19

$21

$23

$25

$27

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Asking Rent, $ PSF Overall Vacancy Rate

69%

16%

13%2%

Neighborhood &Community

Strip

Power & Regional Mall

Lifestyle

Source: CoStar, Cushman & Wakefield Research



A New Retail ParadigmDespite a rapidly changing and challenging marketplace,

shopping center occupancy in the U.S. has grown by 198.9 MSF

since 2010. Retailer demand is now driven overwhelmingly by

two major factors: the barbell of prosperity (with discounters and

luxury brands in strong growth mode while weakness remains in

the middle) and the impact of e-commerce and technology.

The Barbell of ProsperityWhile mid-price point retailers may be in flat or negative

occupancy growth mode, both luxury retail and discount/off-price

retail at the far ends of the economic spectrum have driven net

absorption for hard goods retail. Prime urban retail districts from

New York to San Francisco and from Miami to Seattle have

experienced declining vacancies and climbing rents as new

luxury and fast-fashion concepts (both foreign and domestic)

continue to seek high street locations. For shopping centers, the

real growth numbers have come from discounters and off-price

concepts. The growth of dollar store chains alone since 2010 has

equated to a new store opening in the U.S. every 4.5 hours. The

top five off-price apparel concepts combined are expected to

take over 3.6 MSF of space in 2016. This trend of off-price

apparel retailers leading growth is not expected to end soon.

Middle-class consumers became more frugal during the

recession and have yet to return to their old spending patterns,

despite rising incomes and declining debt.

RETAIL CLOSURES WILL BE ELEVATED THIS YEAR BUT DEMAND WILL ALSO INCREASE. OCCUPANCY GROWTH WILL REMAIN MODESTLY POSITIVE.

Outlook

• Overall shopping center vacancy levels will continue to decrease in 2016; but the pace of declines will slow.

• Restaurant concepts will remain white-hot but market saturation will result in some failures in 2016. Still, incoming private equity players will still drive further growth.

• Increased merger and acquisition activity will result in consolidation in a few key retail sectors in 2016, but not enough to reverse overall growth.

The Impact of E-CommerceBy offering goods at lower prices, e-commerce has sharply

impacted retailer growth patterns. Additionally, the practice of

“showrooming” has negatively impacted retailer margins while

creating a more competitive marketplace. While the impact has

been most profound on mid-price point, hard goods retailers, it

has also impacted growth patterns. Service-related and food retail

(whether grocery or restaurant) remains extremely robust.

However, after five consecutive years of aggressive restaurant

growth, there is reason to be concerned about market saturation

for this sector. Still, growth (particularly from fast casual chains)

will actually rise in 2016, though closures will also increase.

New Construction (MSF)

More Closures This YearThe first quarter is typically when retailers close underperforming

stores. This is usually driven by the typical life cycles of retailers

and holiday sales performance often plays into these decisions.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), retail sales

during the 2015 holiday season increased by 3.1%. While this is

a respectable number, it is less than the 4.1% boost recorded

one year earlier. More troubling is the fact that 2015’s gains were

driven partially by a surge in e-commerce sales. (MasterCard

Advisors reported a 20% year-over-year increase.) Retail foot

traffic was sub-par until late in the season when sales were

driven by sharp discounting which reduced margins. As a result,

2016’s “normal” life-cycle closures will be augmented by an

increasing number of retailers “right-sizing” their bricks-and-

mortar footprint for e-commerce. Additionally, a number of major

mergers and acquisitions will result in the closure of

redundancies over the course of the year. Still, net growth

should remain modestly positive but it will further bifurcate

conditions in the marketplace.

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 U/C

Source: CoStar, Cushman & Wakefield Research



REGION INVENTORY VACANCY RATECURRENT NET ABSORPTION

YTD NET ABSORPTION

DELIVERIESUNDERCNSTR

AVERAGE ASKING RENT (NNN)

Atlantic 1,361,815,827 7.0% 4,853,354 13,816,908 3,078,193 9,418,776 $26.77

Midwest 780,047,996 9.9% 1,451,022 7,562,748 840,789 2,829,146 $20.25

Mountain 339,729,143 10.4% 367,528 2,151,560 494,069 1,017,884 $24.80

Pacific 772,483,839 6.7% 335,518 5,109,492 1,500,257 3,604,839 $32.05

South 693,340,712 7.9% 2,751,642 10,330,588 1,652,337 3,951,490 $19.82

U.S. Totals 3,947,417,517 8.0% 9,759,064 38,971,296 7,565,645 20,822,135 $24.74

SHOPPING CENTER TYPES INVENTORY VACANCY RATECURRENT NET ABSORPTION

YTD NET ABSORPTION

DELIVERIESUNDERCNSTR

AVERAGE ASKING RENT (NNN)

Community/Neighborhood 2,511,882,122 8.7% 3,686,088 21,940,745 3,678,300 9,989,171 $20.69

Strip 563,179,195 8.7% 1,866,478 5,812,071 757,148 2,030,431 $21.46

Power Center 763,763,520 5.1% 2,825,676 6,113,684 1,846,972 5,002,249 $25.40

Lifestyle 108,592,680 7.0% 1,380,822 5,104,796 1,283,225 3,800,284 $31.40

U.S. Totals 3,947,417,517 8.0% 9,759,064 38,971,296 7,565,645 20,822,135 $24.74

*Rental rates reflect triple net asking $psf/annually; rental rates are not weighted. Our statistical coverage includes community, neighborhood, power and lifestyle centers only. It does not include malls, outlet centers, theme retail centers, airport retail or freestanding retail product.

Looking AheadWhile we expect the number of retail closures will rise in 2016, it

is also likely that total aggregate retailer demand will increase.

Closures will be limited for the most part to a few retail sectors,

primarily those most directly impacted by e-commerce.

But outside of sectors like office supplies, media, toys and

consumer electronics, aggregate demand is expected to rise

incrementally across nearly every other retail sector thanks to

stronger consumer spending growth. In fact, the most recent

retail sales data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis

indicates that total U.S. retail sales (adjusted for inflation) grew at

a rate of 4.9% in 2015, the largest increase since 1999. This was

partly due to the impact of falling gasoline prices over the past 19

months which put more money in consumers’ pockets. In

addition, the U.S. added over 2.9 million jobs in 2015 and we are

finally starting to see signs of across-the-board wage growth

(though it remains modest). But while consumers are spending

more on automobiles, food (including dining out), housing,

medical care and other costs, they remain largely in discount-

mode when it comes to hard goods retail. We don’t expect this

frugality to end any time soon.

A “Have” Vs. “Have-Not” MarketplaceThanks to seemingly contradictory occupancy growth trends

(demand from the two ends of the economic spectrum and

contraction in the middle), the market has increasingly become

bifurcated. While stories continue to circulate about “dead malls,”

vacancy in premier, trophy shopping centers is extremely low.

There is a shortage of Class A space in most U.S. markets (a

factor driving construction); 75% of the national vacancy is

concentrated in Class B or C product. Meanwhile, rental rate

growth is being almost entirely driven by Class A projects; Class

B rents are mostly flat and the market for Class C remains

extremely tenant favorable.

New development will remain relatively robust in 2016, but retail

closures are likely to increase as well with more chains “right-

sizing” their omni-channel presence and increased merger and

acquisition activity resulting in greater consolidation. As a result,

most existing demand will continue to be in Class A projects with

only a little relief likely for the nation’s Class B centers (outside of

the most space constricted metros) and virtually no relief for

Class C product. The gulf between the retail “haves” and “have-

nots” will continue to widen.



NET ABSORPTION Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015p

United States 14,323,196 6,238,615 8,768,413 14,205,204 9,759,064

Atlantic 5,254,085 2,300,414 2,955,914 3,707,226 4,853,354

Midwest 3,029,808 200,383 2,775,676 3,135,667 1,451,022

Mountain 1,053,623 420,402 92,350 1,271,280 367,528

Pacific 3,287,138 1,125,291 1,032,416 2,616,267 335,518

South 1,698,542 2,192,125 1,912,057 3,474,764 2,751,642

*Rental rates reflect gross asking $psf/year


Albuquerque 29,745 178,527 18,544 142,886 (43,179)

Atlanta 641,731 369,192 407,444 558,031 807,514

Austin 205,477 172,611 221,008 337,045 305,963

Bakersfield (660) 118,036 (25,577) 315 (67,316)

Baltimore (164,374) 18,286 32,533 (50,470) 66,110

Birmingham (28,018) 107,781 159,515 120,943 110,249

Boston 589,816 539,849 374,415 313,614 161,806

Chicago 497,100 (285,964) 820,239 765,167 725,435

Charleston 114,528 9,153 78,031 351,703 64,522

Charlotte 454,961 225,580 (94,695) 150,574 372,792

Cincinnati 487,550 (138,438) (21,374) 357,384 475,090

Cleveland 478,997 235,819 362,197 118,275 (27,377)

Columbus 515,374 179,145 147,730 304,854 (78,279)

Dallas 760,298 753,281 793,431 742,508 1,136,065

Denver 265,288 277,743 (99,140) 140,465 378,065

Des Moines 54,195 (4,846) (2,104) (23,351) (41,777)

Detroit 178,550 191,558 381,983 388,504 211,121

Hampton Roads 608,154 59,627 (149,277) 302,815 132,171

Hawaii 19,885 157,528 47,593 114,757 60,130

Houston 136,879 520,351 597,070 847,161 566,388

Indianapolis 65,880 50,180 152,047 (10,704) (14,387)

Inland Empire 313,025 73,125 474,380 250,051 (28,508)

Jacksonville 284,689 404,522 135,565 91,915 76,344

Kansas City 390,856 64,433 460,049 23,421 85,228

Knoxville 64,532 194,371 (20,062) 24,132 220,969

Las Vegas 279,891 (324,695) (12,178) 549,442 (158,314)

Little Rock (54,909) 86,619 36,927 13,459 19,386

Los Angeles 520,080 176,130 114,712 841,701 (47,381)

Louisville 170,224 170,340 (46,525) 107,608 25,110

Memphis 360,115 (59,377) (80,076) 219,672 2,009

Miami/South Florida 542,107 416,455 512,191 535,301 865,445



Our statistical coverage includes community, neighborhood, power and lifestyle centers only. It does not include malls, outlet centers, theme retail centers, airport retail or freestanding retail product.p = preliminary


Milwaukee 78,257 (57,064) 218,021 292,674 (130,242)

Minneapolis 26,707 (80,691) 83,205 434,419 233,142

Mobile 27,082 39,700 149,067 290,112 (11,233)

Nashville (6,291) (33,632) 41,899 30,736 (142,982)

New Orleans (6,291) (33,632) 41,899 30,736 (142,982)

New York City (Greater Tri-State) 365,970 (52,458) 110,810 441,538 986,571

Oakland/East Bay 299,033 94,943 23,088 211,380 96,593

Oklahoma City (36,180) 17,238 (30,222) 160,736 31,178

Omaha 82,769 172,551 (31,300) 93,688 (17,041)

Orange County 185,694 205,230 37,103 210,839 (45,267)

Orlando 423,531 256,417 127,843 7,744 307,426

Phoenix 472,320 269,587 202,086 396,412 196,834

Philadelphia 236,878 (54,045) 336,327 137,554 245,890

Pittsburgh 126,087 19,162 99,557 30,251 61,181

Portland 232,406 142,349 62,645 292,166 164,252

Providence (5,480) (11,151) (11,085) 39,439 73,365

Raleigh/Durham 316,061 51,707 186,789 387,785 108,309

Reno 49,401 60,128 (6,316) (17,139) 77,169

Richmond 34,980 178,771 16,957 44,629 57,319

Sacramento 347,926 30,249 119,266 277,442 283,993

Salt Lake City 175,734 91,781 (16,152) (5,873) 66,415

San Antonio 118,918 170,591 (35,446) 337,128 225,238

San Diego 191,992 7,468 (27,762) 189,091 (578,656)

San Francisco 291,569 120,280 23,963 75,256 115,326

San Jose 387,799 (39,078) (21,550) 79,111 372,206

Seattle 498,389 39,031 204,555 74,158 10,146

St. Louis 173,573 (126,300) 204,983 391,336 30,109

Tampa 164,981 (125,096) 201,897 192,635 151,389

Tucson (43,022) (40,888) (10,646) 59,214 (83,047)

Tulsa 13,374 51,443 74,595 82,142 83,949

Washington, DC 519,465 (5,557) 590,612 172,168 315,200

MethodologyCushman & Wakefield’s quarterly estimates are derived from a variety of data sources, including our own proprietary database as well as data gleaned from reliable third-party data sources. The market statistics are calculated from a base shopping center inventory made up of shopping center properties deemed to be competitive in their respective local markets. The inventory is subject to revisions due to resampling. Vacant space is defined as space that is available immediately or imminently after the end of the quarter. The figures provided for the current quarter are preliminary and all information contained in this report is subject to correction of errors and revisions based on the receipt of additional pertinent data.



OVERALL VACANCY RATE Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015p

United States 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.0% 8.0%

Atlantic 7.4% 7.3% 7.2% 7.1% 7.0%

Midwest 10.3% 10.4% 10.2% 10.0% 9.9%

Mountain 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 10.3% 10.4%

Pacific 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.6% 6.7%

South 8.6% 8.5% 8.3% 8.1% 7.9%



Albuquerque 9.0% 8.1% 8.1% 7.9% 8.2%

Atlanta 10.7% 10.5% 10.2% 9.9% 9.5%

Austin 7.0% 6.7% 6.2% 5.6% 5.3%

Bakersfield 8.1% 7.8% 8.4% 8.5% 9.3%

Baltimore 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7%

Birmingham 12.1% 11.7% 11.1% 10.7% 10.3%

Boston 4.6% 4.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9%

Chicago 11.1% 11.4% 11.2% 11.0% 10.7%

Charleston 8.6% 8.5% 8.0% 6.3% 6.1%

Charlotte 7.4% 7.3% 7.6% 7.4% 7.3%

Cincinnati 10.7% 10.9% 11.1% 10.8% 10.6%

Cleveland 10.2% 10.0% 9.6% 9.5% 9.6%

Columbus 8.7% 8.5% 8.3% 8.0% 8.2%

Dallas 9.9% 9.7% 9.5% 9.3% 9.0%

Denver 7.6% 7.5% 7.6% 7.5% 7.5%

Des Moines 6.8% 6.9% 6.9% 7.1% 7.4%

Detroit 12.2% 12.0% 11.7% 11.3% 11.1%

Hampton Roads 7.2% 7.2% 7.6% 7.6% 7.4%

Hawaii 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.6%

Houston 7.4% 7.4% 7.2% 7.0% 7.0%

Indianapolis 9.6% 9.5% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2%

Inland Empire 10.2% 10.2% 10.0% 9.9% 10.1%

Jacksonville 11.0% 10.4% 10.1% 10.1% 10.0%

Kansas City 10.9% 11.1% 10.7% 10.8% 10.7%

Knoxville 9.8% 8.8% 8.9% 8.8% 7.6%

Las Vegas 11.6% 12.1% 12.2% 11.5% 11.7%

Little Rock 7.1% 6.6% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%

Los Angeles 5.9% 5.8% 5.9% 5.8% 5.9%

Louisville 5.8% 5.1% 5.3% 4.9% 4.8%

Memphis 10.5% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 10.8%

Miami/South Florida 7.2% 7.2% 6.9% 6.7% 6.4%



Our statistical coverage includes community, neighborhood, power and lifestyle centers only. It does not include malls, outlet centers, theme retail centers, airport retail or freestanding retail product.p = preliminary


Milwaukee 9.8% 10.0% 10.0% 9.6% 10.0%

Minneapolis 8.3% 8.5% 8.4% 7.9% 7.6%

Mobile 9.6% 9.0% 10.1% 9.8% 10.0%

Nashville 8.4% 9.1% 9.0% 8.8% 9.7%

New Orleans 8.4% 9.1% 9.0% 8.8% 9.7%

New York City (Greater Tri-State) 6.2% 6.3% 6.5% 6.4% 6.3%

Oakland/East Bay 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 5.1% 5.1%

Oklahoma City 8.9% 8.9% 9.0% 8.8% 8.9%

Omaha 8.1% 8.2% 8.4% 8.0% 8.3%

Orange County 5.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 5.2%

Orlando 8.6% 8.2% 8.0% 8.2% 7.9%

Phoenix 12.1% 12.0% 11.9% 11.6% 11.5%

Philadelphia 8.2% 8.3% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2%

Pittsburgh 4.8% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

Portland 7.2% 7.4% 7.4% 7.2% 7.0%

Providence 9.7% 9.9% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4%

Raleigh/Durham 6.6% 6.5% 6.2% 5.9% 5.7%

Reno 14.3% 13.9% 13.9% 14.1% 13.5%

Richmond 8.7% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.1%

Sacramento 11.1% 11.1% 10.9% 10.7% 10.3%

Salt Lake City 5.7% 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5%

San Antonio 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.5% 7.2%

San Diego 5.8% 5.9% 6.1% 5.9% 6.9%

San Francisco 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.3%

San Jose 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% 5.3% 5.2%

Seattle 6.9% 6.9% 6.6% 6.5% 6.7%

St. Louis 9.9% 10.0% 9.8% 9.5% 9.4%

Tampa 8.9% 9.1% 8.9% 8.7% 8.5%

Tucson 9.0% 9.2% 9.2% 9.1% 9.5%

Tulsa 9.5% 9.5% 9.2% 8.9% 8.7%

Washington, DC 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8%




AVERAGE ASKING RENT Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015p

United States $24.11 $24.06 $24.65 $24.70 $24.74

Atlantic $25.72 $25.65 $26.71 $26.86 $26.77

Midwest $19.41 $19.24 $19.97 $20.11 $20.25

Mountain $24.58 $24.38 $25.12 $24.85 $24.80

Pacific $31.26 $31.05 $31.80 $31.77 $32.05

South $19.57 $19.98 $19.64 $19.91 $19.82


*Rental rates reflect triple net asking $psf/year. Inventory includes community, neighborhood, regional, power and lifestyle centers only. It does not include malls, outlet centers, theme retail centers, airport retail, freestanding retail or urban, high street retail locations.


Albuquerque $23.37 $23.60 $24.76 $25.09 $25.19

Atlanta $22.49 $22.38 $23.26 $23.28 $23.37

Austin $23.80 $24.03 $25.86 $25.89 $26.26

Bakersfield $17.13 $17.65 $18.55 $18.93 $19.36

Baltimore $34.42 $32.86 $34.25 $34.36 $32.96

Birmingham $21.50 $21.13 $21.38 $22.16 $22.43

Boston $26.97 $27.18 $28.50 $29.04 $28.97

Chicago $23.03 $22.42 $23.80 $23.35 $23.22

Charleston $22.28 $23.11 $29.08 $28.80 $29.50

Charlotte $24.49 $23.90 $25.00 $25.08 $25.47

Cincinnati $15.39 $15.25 $15.83 $15.49 $15.39

Cleveland $17.29 $16.56 $17.23 $17.45 $18.05

Columbus $16.30 $16.06 $16.61 $16.57 $16.52

Dallas $23.08 $23.28 $24.26 $24.94 $25.36

Denver $22.43 $22.97 $24.83 $24.76 $25.26

Des Moines $19.57 $19.50 $21.03 $20.58 $20.41

Detroit $20.74 $20.80 $22.11 $22.06 $22.10

Hampton Roads $21.50 $21.42 $22.42 $22.64 $23.35

Hawaii $46.79 $47.16 $47.99 $47.11 $47.88

Houston $26.55 $26.67 $27.24 $27.56 $23.95

Indianapolis $22.04 $21.84 $22.47 $22.60 $23.33

Inland Empire $22.99 $23.37 $24.23 $24.83 $26.23

Jacksonville $20.49 $21.09 $22.07 $21.86 $21.71

Kansas City $19.70 $19.58 $20.30 $20.90 $21.19

Knoxville $15.73 $16.64 $17.77 $18.46 $18.55

Las Vegas $26.03 $26.26 $26.51 $26.77 $26.62

Little Rock $20.26 $20.00 $20.88 $21.08 $21.02

Los Angeles $31.88 $32.59 $34.72 $35.89 $36.44

Louisville $19.04 $19.75 $20.71 $21.09 $21.15

Memphis $22.21 $22.40 $23.27 $23.13 $23.17

Miami/South Florida $30.52 $30.32 $32.13 $32.42 $32.56



Rental rates reflect triple net asking $psf/annually for all tracked shopping center types. This metric reflects currently available space across all class and size ranges for each respective shopping center type. Our statistical coverage includes community, neighborhood, power and lifestyle centers only. Rental rates are not weighted.It does not include malls, outlet centers, theme retail centers, airport retail or freestanding retail product.p = preliminary


Milwaukee $22.15 $22.26 $22.91 $23.00 $23.12

Minneapolis $19.95 $20.23 $20.87 $21.03 $21.30

Mobile $19.58 $19.50 $20.42 $20.98 $21.06

Nashville $29.67 $29.68 $30.65 $30.94 $31.44

New Orleans $29.67 $26.87 $27.87 $28.06 $27.81

New York City (Greater Tri-State) $30.20 $29.90 $31.13 $30.92 $31.39

Oakland/East Bay $27.46 $27.55 $29.00 $29.43 $30.46

Oklahoma City $18.54 $18.69 $19.48 $20.03 $20.30

Omaha $19.36 $19.44 $20.67 $21.13 $21.15

Orange County $34.72 $34.83 $36.80 $35.84 $36.08

Orlando $22.89 $22.28 $23.28 $23.19 $22.81

Phoenix $24.89 $24.47 $26.07 $26.36 $25.87

Philadelphia $23.64 $23.71 $23.81 $24.06 $20.95

Pittsburgh $25.35 $25.04 $26.07 $26.69 $26.75

Portland $27.10 $27.39 $28.78 $29.62 $29.96

Providence $25.61 $25.67 $27.10 $27.70 $28.36

Raleigh/Durham $21.91 $22.33 $23.47 $23.58 $23.94

Reno $27.47 $27.50 $28.60 $28.03 $28.16

Richmond $20.74 $21.30 $22.09 $22.01 $21.92

Sacramento $25.84 $25.94 $26.60 $26.39 $26.31

Salt Lake City $21.66 $22.27 $24.18 $24.20 $24.40

San Antonio $20.74 $23.93 $24.75 $24.52 $24.42

San Diego $32.09 $32.55 $33.87 $34.98 $34.92

San Francisco $29.97 $30.30 $31.46 $30.55 $31.91

San Jose $45.15 $45.06 $48.14 $45.22 $46.73

Seattle $33.33 $29.87 $31.16 $40.01 $36.17

St. Louis $15.93 $15.38 $16.04 $17.32 $17.27

Tampa $25.11 $25.16 $26.23 $26.31 $26.11

Tucson $24.73 $24.94 $25.64 $25.94 $25.72

Tulsa $15.87 $19.80 $21.81 $21.27 $21.72

Washington, DC $35.91 $36.03 $37.58 $38.52 $38.88




REGIONS INVENTORY DELIVERIES (2015)UNDER

CONSTRUCTION

United States 3,947,417,517 25,938,771 20,822,135

Atlantic 1,361,815,827 9,064,556 9,418,776

Midwest 780,047,996 4,547,737 2,829,146

Mountain 339,729,143 1,373,765 1,017,884

Pacific 772,483,839 5,099,790 3,604,839

South 693,340,712 5,852,923 3,951,490


*Rental rates reflect triple net asking $psf/year. Inventory includes community, neighborhood, regional, power and lifestyle centers only. It does not include malls, outlet centers, theme retail centers, airport retail, freestanding retail or urban, high street retail locations.

MARKETS INVENTORY DELIVERIES (2015)UNDER

CONSTRUCTION

Albuquerque 19,945,675 239,781 31,881

Atlanta 140,052,804 425,570 394,308

Austin 47,364,046 239,781 31,881

Bakersfield 50,865,494 159,806 690,963

Baltimore 11,381,576 182,640 85,689

Birmingham 27,928,667 12,165 0

Boston 68,823,026 999,026 348,159

Chicago 14,895,200 145,153 63,880

Charleston 66,328,340 601,865 353,554

Charlotte 189,010,340 6,901,454 874,924

Cincinnati 69,634,544 2,181,282 182,000

Cleveland 86,948,014 1,541,067 30,911

Columbus 46,643,942 350,570 215,200

Dallas 183,925,553 2,052,095 1,065,073

Denver 80,664,578 709,680 241,744

Des Moines 12,090,810 31,000 0

Detroit 87,420,975 1,085,821 200,467

Hampton Roads 54,589,124 502,739 414,303

Hawaii 24,452,932 219,516 809,728

Houston 161,325,780 1,959,014 1,670,102

Indianapolis 46,560,063 183,050 0

Inland Empire 101,944,494 644,759 338,190

Jacksonville 42,029,169 301,848 290,809

Kansas City 59,110,786 3,858,353 97,644

Knoxville 18,426,835 0 0

Las Vegas 68,702,454 186,856 331,425

Little Rock 15,505,419 46,200 0

Los Angeles 190,518,835 1,251,015 426,700

Louisville 26,781,499 7,350 13,000

Memphis 37,403,412 237,784 104,373

Miami/South Florida 155,212,715 1,077,982 776,830



MARKETS INVENTORY DELIVERIES (2015)UNDER

CONSTRUCTION

Milwaukee 35,859,590 1,759,822 572,439

Minneapolis 53,037,681 1,120,355 326,850

Mobile 7,112,840 547,180 0

Nashville 37,101,246 146,273 522,681

New Orleans 16,802,570 125,017 18,000

New York City (Greater Tri-State) 269,654,176 1,953,644 3,156,417

Oakland/East Bay 50,710,942 360,464 412,939

Oklahoma City 32,075,941 180,577 402,939

Omaha 24,256,122 1,477,818 182,553

Orange County 83,732,579 241,166 609,044

Orlando 51,574,106 374,650 127,991

Phoenix 132,653,275 300,667 311,438

Philadelphia 135,015,867 728,460 883,823

Pittsburgh 54,598,174 109,534 78,390

Portland 46,523,780 620,139 19,376

Providence 14,984,955 57,382 17,589

Raleigh/Durham 46,990,047 322,465 190,348

Reno 13,693,688 0 0

Richmond 37,051,146 72,781 435,613

Sacramento 59,402,968 278,798 392,253

Salt Lake City 51,857,654 22,234 266,998

San Antonio 56,178,132 218,577 39,567

San Diego 67,652,718 349,864 25,812

San Francisco 40,618,947 218,806 364,806

San Jose 37,298,246 519,198 110,300

Seattle 58,245,822 213,425 10,002

St. Louis 69,475,129 1,179,966 146,158

Tampa 69,074,994 152,000 302,832

Tucson 24,069,473 39,102 44,277

Tulsa 25,408,772 80,910 83,874

Washington, DC 90,076,490 1,079,651 892,967

Garrick BrownVice PresidentRetail Research for the AmericasTel: +1 916 329 1558Fax: +1 916 376 [email protected]

About Cushman & WakefieldCushman & Wakefield is a global leader in commercial real estate services, helping clients transform the way people work, shop, and live. The firm’s 43,000 employees in more than 60 countries provide deep local and global insights that create significant value for occupiers and investors around the world. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms in the world with revenues of $5 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facilities services (branded C&W Services), global occupier services, investment management (branded DTZ Investors), tenant representation and valuations & advisory. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @Cushwake on Twitter.

gfgg

Cushman & Wakefield, Inc.

1290 Avenue of the Americas

New York, NY 10019-6178

www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge

For more information, contact:

Ronnie Davis, Managing Director, Research

404 853 5249

[email protected]

No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or

completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to

errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice,

and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals.

© 2015 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.

1

STEADY ECONOMIC MOMENTUM

The U.S. economy gained ground during the

second quarter of 2015 following a sluggish

start to the year. While U.S. gross domestic

product (GDP) increased at a 2.3% annual rate

in the second quarter, outpacing the meager

0.6% increase in the first quarter, the performance is far from

impressive and is a clear sign the economy remains in slow-growth

mode. Job growth has certainly been the bright spot thus far in 2015.

The average number of jobs added each month through June was

208,000, well below the 260,000 monthly average for 2014, yet the

second-best average since the current economic expansion began in

2010. While the expanding labor market has resulted in a declining

unemployment rate that fell to 5.3% in June–the lowest since April

2008–it has not yet led to any significant acceleration in wage growth,

which continues to constrain the retail market’s full potential.

REFLECTIVE RETAIL LANDSCAPE

In addition to marginal wage growth, consumer confidence has

moderated. Although the first quarter 2015 consumer confidence

index rose above 100 for the first time since 2007, it fell to 99.8 by

the end of June, which had a direct impact on retail sales. Second

quarter retail sales (including food service) totaled $1.3 trillion, an

increase of 1.9% year-over-year (YoY), the smallest YoY increase in

retail sales since fourth quarter 2009.

Despite the measured economic growth, retailers remain optimistic

about the near-term prospects. While several retailers including Gap,

Anna’s Linens and Izod announced sizable store closings during the

second quarter, others including J. Crew Mercantile and Macy’s

Backstage, both off-price brands, announced expansion plans.

RETAIL SALES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TRENDS

Source: Moody’s Analytics

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

NATIONAL 2014 2015F 2016F

GDP Growth 2.4% 2.4% 3.0%

CPI Growth 1.6% 0.4.% 2.7%


2.5% 3.4% 3.8%

Retail Sales Growth 3.8% 2.8% 5.6%

Median Household Income $53,442 $55,052 $56,947

Population Growth 0.7% 0.8% 0.8%

Unemployment 6.1% 5.3% 4.9%


UNITED STATES STATISTICS BY TYPE*

VACANCY RENTAL RATES

PSF/YR

YTD NET ABSORPTION (SF)

General Retail 4.0% $17.21 21,709,629

Mall 5.3% $16.07 631,205

Power Center 4.7% $16.71 1,956,088

Neighborhood/Community/Strip Center

9.2% $14.76 11,422,510

Specialty Center 6.2% $17.79 601,940

TOTAL MARKET 6.0% $15.70 36,321,372

Source: CoStar Group * Select U.S. markets

OVERALL RENTAL VS. VACANCY RATES*


0

30

60

90

120

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$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F

Bil

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RETAIL SALES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

$14.00

$14.50

$15.00

$15.50

$16.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

YTD

psf

/yr

OVERALL NET RENTAL RATE OVERALL VACANCY RATE

Q2 2015 UNITED STATES

RETAIL SNAPSHOT MARKETBEAT

A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

mailto:[email protected]



New York, NY 10019-6178




404 853 5249

[email protected]






2

POSITIVE SUPPLY TRENDS

Thanks in part to a still-restrained construction pipeline, retail supply

fundamentals continued to improve. Overall retail vacancy fell to 6.0%

at the end of the second quarter, a 50 basis point decline from a year

earlier and the lowest since 2007. Average asking rent continued to

climb and reached a six-year high of $15.70 per square foot (psf), a

1.7% increase YoY.

Second quarter construction completions totaled 11.6 million square

feet (msf), the lowest quarterly total since Q2 2013. Some of the

largest deliveries included the 465,000-sf Mountain Grove project in

Redlands, CA anchored by Nordstrom Rack, TJ Maxx, HomeGoods

and Buy Buy Baby, and the 167,900-sf Sun Garden Center in San Jose,

CA anchored by Walmart and Big 5 Sporting Goods. An additional

45.3 msf remained under construction at the end of June, the lowest

amount since 2012. The delivery pipeline is expected to remain

constrained for the foreseeable future, given that new construction

starts are well below historic averages.

STILL-GROWING INVESTMENT VOLUME

Retail investment sales volume in the second quarter totaled $19.1

billion, up 22.0% YoY, pushing the YTD total to $45.6 billion. Cap

rates continued to decline and averaged 6.6% at the end of the

quarter, down 30 basis points YoY. Cap rates for mall & other retail

property types averaged 6.0% while cap rates for strip centers

averaged 7.0%. Although higher than apartment cap rates, average

retail cap rates are now below those of other commercial property

types including hotel, office and industrial.

Not surprisingly, Manhattan continued to dominate investment sales

volume with $4.8 billion in YTD transactions through June. Hawaii

and Los Angeles were the only other markets recording over $2.0

billion in sales through mid-year, with $3.1 Billion and $2.4 Billion,

respectively. Other top ten investment sales markets included

Chicago, NYC Boroughs, Northern NJ, Dallas, Seattle, Houston and

the DC/VA Suburbs, all of which topped $1.0 billion YTD June.

Among the largest second quarter transactions were Vornado’s

purchase of the Old Navy Flagship Store on W 34th Street in

Manhattan for $350 million or $4,501 psf and Prudential Real Estate

Investors’ purchase of the Mercato shops in Naples, FL for $239.6

million or $525 psf.

STRENGTHENING SECOND HALF 2015

Looking ahead to the second half of 2015, optimistic outlooks

dominate the forecast. Throughout the remainder of the year,

improvement in GDP and retail sales are expected. While the FED

will likely raise interest rates, the effects will be counterbalanced and

overshadowed by shrinking unemployment, rising income levels,

growing consumer confidence and increased consumer spending, all

of which point to a strengthening economy and lively retail landscape.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

SIGNIFICANT Q2 2015 LEASE

TRANSACTIONS

MARKET TENANT TRANSACTION DATE SQUARE FEET

Dillard’s New Orleans, LA Dillard’s Inc. Q2 2015 128,000

600 NE Barry Road Kansas City, MO At Home Q2 2015 84,000

White Bear Marketplace Minneapolis, MN Cub Foods Q2 2015 77,233

SIGNIFICANT Q2 2015 SALE

TRANSACTIONS

MARKET BUYER PURCHASE PRICE / $PSF SQUARE FEET

Old Navy Flagship Store Manhattan, NYC Vornado Realty Trust $350,000,000 / $4,501 77,760

Mercato Naples, FL Prudential RE Investors $239,550,000 / $525 456,359

Park Place Kansas City, MO KBS REIT III $126,491,500 / $262 483,119

SIGNIFICANT Q2 2015 PORTFOLIO

TRANSACTIONS


WP Glimcher JV Retail Portfolio 15 Multiple O'Connor Capital Partners $1,654,500,000 / $521 3,176,807

Zimmer Dev/Brody Co Mayfaire Retail Wilmington, NC CBL $192,000,000 / $252 762,447

SIGNIFICANT Q2 2015

CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS

MARKET DEVELOPER COMPLETION DATE SQUARE FEET

Mountain Grove at Citrus Plaza Redlands, CA Majestic Realty Co. Q2 2015 465,000

Sun Garden Center San Jose, CA SDS NexGen Partners, LP Q2 2015 167,900

Dulles Landing Dulles, VA Beatty Development Corp. Q2 2015 153,000

Shops at Southline Charlotte, NC Stiles Development Q2 2015 74,900

SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER

CONSTRUCTION


American Dream Meadowlands East Rutherford, NJ Triple Five Development Corp. Q2 2017 2,069,000

City Point Brooklyn, NY Acadia Realty Q1 2016 675,000

Brickell City Centre Retail Miami, FL Swire Properties, Inc. Q4 2016 505,000

Sources: CoStar Group, Real Capital Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Retail Research




New York, NY 10019-6178




404 853 5249

[email protected]






3

UNITED STATES MARKET STATISTICS*

MARKET INVENTORY (SF) VACANCY (SF) VACANCY RATE YTD NET ABSORPTION YTD DELIVERIES (SF) UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF) AVERAGE ASKING RENT (US$/PSF/YR)

Atlanta, GA 351,954,452 27,837,132 7.9% 1,387,976 373,635 786,992 $12.51

Baltimore, MD 137,657,657 6,643,519 4.8% 129,308 146,689 1,047,582 $19.07

Boston, MA 327,187,071 12,643,454 3.9% 1,195,211 1,096,551 1,831,313 $17.16

Charlotte, NC 154,867,799 9,359,188 6.0% 779,118 677,858 646,799 $13.23

Chicago, IL 518,358,491 42,865,176 8.3% 1,436,467 1,300,515 2,453,320 $16.17

Cincinnati, OH 123,437,402 8,265,882 6.7% 485,290 9,018 935,755 $9.85

Cleveland, OH 199,965,845 13,962,938 7.0% 940,642 337,572 176,321 $10.44

Dallas/Ft Worth, TX 397,979,831 24,778,813 6.2% 4,403,403 3,363,909 1,949,450 $14.15

Denver, CO 192,223,960 10,065,100 5.2% 860,853 373,803 799,954 $15.48

Detroit, MI 243,750,724 20,117,784 8.3% 2,035,137 527,625 318,845 $12.06

East Bay/Oakland, CA 120,820,650 4,820,926 4.0% 166,926 200,868 291,652 $22.16

Hartford, CT 146,976,554 7,656,439 5.2% 546,604 435,702 107,449 $12.75

Honolulu, HI 57,370,224 1,643,907 2.9% 358,902 326,631 1,250,006 $34.74

Houston, TX 354,517,022 18,809,421 5.3% 2,129,995 1,538,485 1,938,555 $15.55

Indianapolis, IN 120,967,872 7,679,885 6.3% 627,805 253,932 414,589 $12.10

Inland Empire, CA 185,759,304 15,444,613 8.3% 349,627 441,632 353,132 $16.09

Jacksonville, FL 89,966,216 6,050,816 6.7% 846,185 361,830 209,999 $12.88

Kansas City, MO 111,373,682 8,694,647 7.8% 931,606 530,959 91,075 $12.39

Las Vegas, NV 109,816,595 10,921,133 9.9% (287,230) 204,781 822,512 $15.47

Los Angeles, CA 460,784,319 21,357,125 4.6% 521,054 515,537 1,399,631 $25.94

Memphis, TN 83,456,052 7,248,678 8.7% 94,024 244,644 640,306 $9.66

Miami, FL 125,424,925 4,196,077 3.3% 857,641 719,016 1,159,812 $32.17

Milwaukee, WI 138,804,191 9,131,411 6.6% 320,538 406,332 751,597 $10.45

Minneapolis, MN 200,051,461 10,032,385 5.0% 136,176 156,180 748,418 $13.14

Nashville, TN 99,179,912 6,129,143 6.2% 436,034 297,016 724,463 $14.78

New Orleans, LA 75,865,055 4,549,232 6.0% 145,911 216,449 460292 $14.35

Manhattan, NY 51,203,185 1,779,040 3.5% 71,349 114,762 2,685,260 $91.77

Northern New Jersey 368,740,455 20,408,680 5.5% 841,045 1,188,334 3,249,745 $19.90

Oklahoma City, OK 85,928,742 5,512,256 6.4% 306,672 278,717 388,225 $11.13

Orange County, CA 140,747,315 6,067,169 4.3% 457,454 22,366 1,116,359 $23.47

Orlando, FL 161,260,996 10,445,337 6.5% 1,256,045 571,729 775,509 $14.13

Palm Beach County, FL

FL

77,527,577 4,644,146 6.0% 353,218 263,854 179,028 $18.74

Philadelphia, PA 515,027,364 29,381,809 5.7% 541,553 632,394 1,537,264 $13.82

Phoenix, AZ 218,590,291 20,865,320 9.5% 646,755 513,301 451,007 $13.97

Pittsburgh, PA 137,320,510 4,985,713 3.6% 230,271 148,090 219,176 $12.06

Portland, OR 106,147,668 5,120,414 4.8% 133,191 372,676 314,320 $17.33

Raleigh/Durham, NC 95,329,835 4,391,526 4.6% 952,018 622,250 355,019 $14.77

Richmond, VA 78,769,535 4,573,819 5.8% 437,174 177,131 395,318 $13.99

Sacramento, CA 97,781,811 8,150,184 8.3% 602,690 338,141 506,038 $16.17

Salt Lake City, UT 128,419,400 5,117,094 4.0% 487,193 362,219 353,088 $13.49

San Antonio, TX 124,525,434 6,637,891 5.3% 285,989 324,289 392,713 $14.32

San Diego, CA 133,841,127 5,656,402 4.2% 13,933 361,063 192,007 $22.86

San Francisco, CA 81,688,998 1,661,052 2.0% 73,654 73,752 241,200 $36.74

Seattle, WA 172,722,499 7,894,229 4.6% 750,888 143,044 282,328 $17.57

Tampa, FL 220,968,340 13,825,090 6.3% 630,617 453,339 944,838 $13.65

Washington, D.C. 222,551,443 9,933,564 4.5% 535,951 745,025 1,275,905 $26.17

TOTAL MARKET* 10,205,047,802 607,254,865 6.0% 36,321,372 25,905,273 45,317,065 $15.70

RENTAL RATES REFLECT ASKING $PSF/YEAR *Select U.S. markets. Retail properties only. Does not include retail space in non-retail buildings (i.e. office, condo, apartment, etc.)

Source: CoStar Group


Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. 1290 Avenue of the Americas New York, NY 10019-6178 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge

For more information, contact: Ronnie Davis, Managing Director, Research 404 853 5249 [email protected]

No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2015 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.

1

FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC LULL

The U.S. economy remained sluggish in the first quarter of 2015 as the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualized rate of 0.2%, a further slowdown from the already sluggish 2.2% rate of growth recorded in the

fourth quarter of 2014. This slowdown was driven in part by severe winter weather that resulted in weaker consumer spending, which increased at an annualized rate of only 1.9%, down from 4.4% in the fourth quarter.

RESILIENT RETAIL LANDSCAPE Despite the temporary economic lull in the first quarter, the Consumer Confidence Index as measured by the Conference Board rose above 100 for the first time since third quarter 2007. Although consumers are still somewhat cautious, particularly as it relates to future expectations, retail and food service sales totaled an estimated $1.3 trillion in the first quarter, a moderate increase of 2.2% over the prior-year period. Much of the softness in retail sales was a result of declining gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, sales rose a much more robust 5.3% from a year ago. Despite some well-publicized store closings by Dollar Tree, Walgreens, Pier 1 Imports and New York & Company, other retailers are moving forward with expansion plans. H&M, Uniqlo, Party City, Century 21 and Mattress Firm are just a few retailers that announced new store openings for 2015. Notably, the off-price segment continues to experience impressive growth. The sector gained popularity during the recession and has maintained a loyal fan base since. Even luxury retailers such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Nordstrom have faith in the long-term strength of the segment, as growth in their off-price brands of Saks Off 5th and Nordstrom Rack, respectively, is expected to outpace that of their full-line stores.

RETAIL SALES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TRENDS


ECONOMIC INDICATORS NATIONAL 2014 2015F 2016F

GDP Growth 2.4% 3.1% 3.5%

CPI Growth 1.6% 0.6.% 2.6%


2.5% 3.6% 4.2%

Retail Sales Growth 4.0% 2.8% 6.0%

Median Household Income $53,442 $55,121 $57,160

Population Growth 0.7% 0.8% 0.8%

Unemployment 6.2% 5.4% 5.1%


UNITED STATES STATISTICS BY TYPE* VACANCY RENTAL RATES

PSF/YR

YTD NET ABSORPTION (SF)

General Retail 4.1% $17.11 7,315,573

Mall 5.4% $16.17 285,759

Power Center 4.7% $16.61 587,390

Neighborhood/Community/Strip Center

9.4% $14.68 3,354,879

Specialty Center 6.4% $16.26 70,482

TOTAL MARKET 6.1% $15.60 11,614,083


OVERALL RENTAL VS. VACANCY RATES*


0

30

60

90

120

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F

Bil U

S$

RETAIL SALES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

$14.00

$14.50

$15.00

$15.50

$16.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD

psf/y

r

OVERALL NET RENTAL RATE OVERALL VACANCY RATE

Q1 2015UNITED STATES

RETAIL SNAPSHOT MARKETBEAT

A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication




2

SUSTAINED SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE At first quarter-end, overall retail vacancy in select upper-tier markets remained at 6.1%, as it was at year-end 2014, yet down from 6.6% year-over-year. Overall average quoted rent increased 0.3% during the quarter to $15.60 per square foot (psf) marking nine consecutive quarters of rising rent. New construction starts totaled less than 5.0 million square feet (msf), its lowest level in years, while completions remained at historic lows and totaled less than 10.0 msf for the quarter. The largest deliveries included the 1.3-msf Phase I of The Pinnacle in Bristol, Tennessee and the 97,300-square foot (sf) Magnolia Marketplace in New Orleans, Louisiana. At first quarter-end, 43.0 msf of retail space remained under construction, the smallest amount since 2012.

SUSTAINED INVESTMENT SALES ACTIVITY Retail investment sales volume in first quarter totaled $24 billion, up 5.0% from a year earlier. The average sales price of $230 psf was an increase of 14.0% year-over-year. Cap rates continued to compress and averaged 6.4% at quarter-end, finally falling below the previous low-water mark of 6.5% recorded in 2007. Notably, cap rates for urban/storefront assets averaged 5.0%, providing further evidence of the sector’s popularity.

Geographically, Manhattan and Los Angeles led all other U.S. markets in first quarter retail transaction volume by a sizeable amount, totaling $6.5 billion and $6.2 billion, respectively. Other top five markets included Chicago, Dallas and the outer boroughs of New York City, all of which recorded transaction volume of $2.0 billion or more.

The first quarter’s largest transactions included the 1.4-msf Springfield Town Center in Springfield, Virginia which traded for $465 million or $328 psf, and the 316,000-sf Midtown Crossing in Los Angeles, purchased by Bentall Kennedy for $186.6 million or $591 psf.

EXPECTED STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT 2015

The outlook for the remainder of 2015 remains very positive. The U.S. economy is poised to record its best year of growth in at least a decade, with conservative projections of GDP growth in the 3.0% to 3.5% range. Demand will strengthen, driven by healthy job growth, rising incomes, optimistic consumers and increased consumer spending.

Supply-side characteristics will strengthen as well, thanks largely to the still-restrained retail construction pipeline. Available space will continue to be absorbed as increasingly healthy retailers execute their bricks and mortar strategies amid an evolving retail landscape.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS SIGNIFICANT Q1 2015 LEASE TRANSACTIONS

MARKET TENANT TRANSACTION DATE SQUARE FEET

The Pinnacle – Phase I Bristol, TN Belk Q1 2015 132,000

2601 Port Covington Drive Baltimore, MD Under Armour Q1 2015 130,595

Green Acres Mall Valley Stream, NY Century 21 Department Store Q1 2015 72,266

SIGNIFICANT Q1 2015 SALE TRANSACTIONS


Springfield Town Center Springfield, VA PREIT $465,000,000/ $328 1,415,660

503 Broadway (Retail Condo) New York, NY Inditex Group (Parent Co. of Zara) $284,200,000/ $6,896 41,215

Midtown Crossing Los Angeles, CA Bentall Kennedy $186,600,000/ $591 316,000

SIGNIFICANT Q1 2015 PORTFOLIO TRANSACTIONS


Glimcher Retail Portfolio 15 Multiple Simon Property Group $1,090,000,000/ $745 1,463,971

Kite Realty US Retail Portfolio 2014 Multiple Inland Real Estate Corp. $313,600,000/ $157 1,999,074

Uniwest Virginia Retail Sale 2015 DC VA Suburbs Retail Properties of America $121,500,000/ $363 335,000

SIGNIFICANT Q1 2015 CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS


The Pinnacle – Phase I Bristol, TN Johnson Commercial Development Q1 2015 1,300,000

Parkway Plaza Chattanooga, TN CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. Q1 2015 134,100

Magnolia Marketplace New Orleans, LA Stirling Properties/JCH Development Q1 2015 97,300

SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION


American Dream Meadowlands East Rutherford, NJ Triple Five Development Corp. Q3 2016 2,839,000

Ovation at Cool Springs Nashville, TN Thomas Land & Development Q4 2016 1,400,000

Brickell City Centre Retail Miami, FL Swire Properties, Inc. Q4 2016 505,000

Sources: CoStar Group, Real Capital Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Retail Research




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UNITED STATES MARKET STATISTICS* MARKET INVENTORY (SF) VACANCY (SF) VACANCY RATE YTD NET ABSORPTION YTD DELIVERIES (SF) UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF) AVERAGE ASKING RENT

(US$/PSF/YR)

Atlanta, GA 349,588,959 28,860,290 8.3% 212,045 32,839 531,807 $12.63 Baltimore, MD 136,508,270 6,793,095 5.0% 11,436 49,053 518,039 $19.04 Boston, MA 323,486,409 12,503,898 3.9% 661,993 600,862 1,572,393 $17.11 Charlotte, NC 153,602,588 9,314,559 6.1% 515,847 377,383 296,805 $12.96 Chicago, IL 511,826,793 43,062,974 8.4% 15,195 215,888 2,133,460 $15.85 Cincinnati, OH 122,618,435 8,503,282 6.9% 173,229 0 853,110 $9.75 Cleveland, OH 199,990,093 14,918,853 7.5% 461,669 205,559 126,473 $10.46 Dallas/Ft Worth, TX 389,652,139 25,569,579 6.6% 1,294,563 947,892 3,484,073 $14.19 Denver, CO 191,612,500 10,469,109 5.5% 449,076 236,878 695,948 $15.29 Detroit, MI 241,163,964 20,620,700 8.6% 544,510 114,738 546,416 $11.95 East Bay/Oakland, CA 120,726,042 4,820,132 4.0% 150,414 190,868 228,099 $22.13 Hartford, CT 146,416,884 7,691,922 5.3% 47,966 19,500 377,601 $12.77 Honolulu, HI 57,834,476 1,661,808 2.9% 298,181 314,782 586,945 $34.50 Houston, TX 350,795,981 19,482,971 5.6% 598,126 628,889 1,667,297 $15.28 Indianapolis, IN 120,116,928 8,010,279 6.7% 207,487 13,493 438,811 $12.16 Inland Empire, CA 185,259,083 15,377,272 8.3% (17,103) 70,200 296,802 $15.97 Jacksonville, FL 89,780,694 6,231,747 6.9% 507,155 202,184 66,022 $12.89 Kansas City, MO 110,364,847 9,113,061 8.3% 91,434 202,339 419,951 $12.29 Las Vegas, NV 109,266,445 10,697,750 9.8% (319,283) 74,686 478,310 $15.24 Los Angeles, CA 458,460,084 21,387,040 4.7% 220,857 151,329 1,646,760 $25.64 Memphis, TN 82,653,259 7,106,931 8.6% (15,514) 8,320 641,450 $9.50 Miami, FL 124,958,606 4,472,138 3.6% 370,052 495,975 1,134,212 $31.69 Milwaukee, WI 138,115,668 9,133,537 6.6% (6,618) 186,684 1,054,083 $10.67 Minneapolis, MN 199,623,506 10,137,083 5.1% 64,589 97,506 371,386 $13.16 Nashville, TN 99,043,911 6,313,005 6.4% 125,126 109,998 1,667,998 $14.44 New Orleans, LA 76,544,814 4,825,924 6.3% (97,527) 188,491 68,320 $14.71 Manhattan, NY 51,089,072 1,728,286 3.4% 91,271 24,682 958,913 $88.26 Northern New Jersey 362,900,531 19,997,705 5.5% 150,688 121,706 4,999,085 $19.79 Oklahoma City, OK 85,239,568 5,563,178 6.5% 64,388 83,179 561,054 $11.26 Orange County, CA 140,833,484 6,140,467 4.4% 374,731 10,236 1,045,910 $23.15 Orlando, FL 160,241,214 10,890,845 6.8% 980,410 417,096 452,556 $14.02 Palm Beach County, 77,008,649 4,802,538 6.2% 19,809 97,510 131,377 $18.55 Philadelphia, PA 506,390,812 30,206,940 6.0% (637,609) 138,704 696,250 $13.88 Phoenix, AZ 217,289,781 21,052,835 9.7% 545,110 385,110 548,729 $13.85 Pittsburgh, PA 136,263,348 5,150,844 3.8% (46,808) 31,366 390,482 $12.04 Portland, OR 106,239,781 4,987,870 4.7% 182,481 122,734 348,178 $16.96 Raleigh/Durham, NC 94,687,684 4,789,635 5.1% 294,751 263,129 498,731 $14.46 Richmond, VA 78,460,402 4,574,800 5.8% 353,618 120,542 228,193 $13.88 Sacramento, CA 97,073,878 8,570,819 8.8% 281,213 73,832 267,957 $16.28 Salt Lake City, UT 127,730,025 5,487,296 4.3% 94,839 173,768 337,707 $13.09 San Antonio, TX 124,120,762 6,638,875 5.3% 23,137 63,817 243,167 $14.29 San Diego, CA 134,225,302 5,415,773 4.0% 179,103 232,825 222,535 $22.92 San Francisco, CA 81,571,007 1,672,759 2.1% 4,458 6,600 317,035 $35.79 Seattle, WA 171,939,890 8,345,410 4.9% 151,252 27,394 265,440 $17.60 Tampa, FL 219,297,146 13,876,499 6.3% 269,934 153,315 618,088 $13.75 Washington, D.C. 224,084,842 10,063,751 4.5% 232,041 258,173 1,220,503 $25.93

TOTAL MARKET* 10,129,499,248 617,265,855 6.1% 11,614,083 9,476,149 42,995,069 $15.60

RENTAL RATES REFLECT ASKING $PSF/YEAR *Select U.S. markets. Retail properties only. Does not include retail space in non-retail buildings (i.e. office, condo, apartment, etc.)

Source: CoStar Group

Documents

UnitedStates AMERICAS MarketBeat Retail Q12015 · Under Construction 26.5 MSF 20.8 MSF Average Asking Rent (NNN, Annual) $24.11 $24.74 Lowest Vacancy in Six Years Despite Cloudier