United With Putin Against Terror

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United With Putin AgainstTerror?

Nina L. Khrushcheva

NEW YORK – Russian President Vladimir Putin has just

vowed to “find and punish” those responsible for using a

homemade bomb to bring down a Russian airliner over Egypt

in October, killing 224 people. The timing of his

announcement, just days after terrorists used suicide bombs

and Kalashnikovs to kill 129 people in Paris, is no

coincidence. Putin sees an opening to the West, and he wants

to take advantage of it. The West should not shut him out.

For weeks, the Russian government seemed to be dithering

over the proper response to the plane crash, as if it were

worried that the loss of life would be blamed on its decision to

intervene in Syria’s civil war. The bloodshed in France,

however, has changed the calculus completely, pointing

toward the possibility of a rapprochement between Russia

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and the West. By striking Paris, the Islamic State has turned

the Syrian war into a global conflict. And, as Putin’s

performance at the G-20 summit in Turkey showed, Russia is

firmly in the middle of the fight.

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It must be noted that an adversarial relationship with the

West was not part of Putin’s original plan. “Russia is part of

European culture,” Putin told the BBC in 2000, shortly

before his election as President. “I cannot imagine my own

country in isolation from Europe and what we often call the

civilized world. It is hard for me to visualize NATO as an

enemy.”

It was only in 2002, after NATO began talks to admit

Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and

Slovenia, that relations began to sour. As former British

Prime Minister Tony Blair described the turning point in his

memoirs, “Vladimir later came to believe that the Americans


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did not give him his due place.”

Putin’s bellicosity was later reinforced by domestic political

concerns – a deep recession that made it necessary to

channel voters’ anger – and perceived slights, especially at

the hands of the United States (President Barack Obama

once referred to Putin as “the bored kid in the back of the

classroom”). But it was only with Russia’s intervention in

Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea in March 2014 that

Putin became openly confrontational, portraying his country

as the victim of aggression.

The West has “lied to us many times, made decisions behind

our backs, placed before us a fait accompli,” Putin said in a

televised address, shortly after a dubious referendum in

Crimea cemented Russia’s control over the region. “This

happened with NATO’s expansion to the East, and the

deployment of military infrastructure at our borders.” Putin

has since appeared to be responding to Obama’s description

of Russia as merely a “regional power” by attempting to

demonstrate the Kremlin’s ability to act globally – most

notably by intervening in Syria.


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At the G-20 summit in Turkey, however, Putin struck a

markedly different tone, extending an open hand: “We

proposed cooperation on antiterrorism; unfortunately our

partners in the United States in the initial stage responded

with a refusal… [But now] it seems to me that everyone is

coming around to the realization that we can wage an

effective fight only together… If our partners think the time

has come to change our relations, then we will welcome that.”

The logic behind Putin’s overtures is clear. Russia has

achieved its objective in Ukraine: a frozen conflict that will

provide the Kremlin a continuous role in the country’s

politics. His goal now is to convince the West to lift its

sanctions. As analysts at Stratfor Global Intelligence put it,

“Unless the Kremlin is willing to let Russian companies

default on their debts or make bigger cuts to their current

operations or future investments in the coming years,

Moscow will need to convince the Europeans to let at least

the harshest sanctions expire.”

The attacks in Paris have provided Putin with the opportunity

to present his military operations in Syria as a service to the

West, an example of Russia’s willingness to perform the dirty


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work of attacking the Islamic State in its own territory. And

Putin is already making concessions in the diplomatic sphere.

At a summit in Vienna on November 15, just two days after

the attacks in Paris, Russia and the US seemed to set aside

some of their differences on how to end Syria’s civil war,

agreeing to a timeline in which a new government would be

elected in early 2017.

The US and its European allies have suddenly gained a great

deal of leverage over the Kremlin, and they should not be shy

about using it. While the West should not be quick to lift its

sanctions – the dispute over Crimea is unlikely to be resolved

quickly – harnessing the Kremlin’s desire to be recognized as

a great, global power is a sound strategy. The frozen conflict

in eastern Ukraine can be thawed if Russia is convinced to

observe the Minsk Protocol, withdraw its troops from the

border, and help facilitate local elections under international

standards.

If Putin is willing to create some goodwill by cooperating in

Ukraine, the West should consider offering some small

concessions in return. Russia’s participation in the battle

against the Islamic State – and its return to the rule-abiding


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ranks of the international community – may be worth the

price.


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United With Putin Against Terror