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“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks “. UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS). Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks“
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITYInstitute for Environment and
Human Security(UNU-EHS)
2Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia
Environmental Degradation, Climate Change, Conflicts and Migration
Fabrice RenaudAssociate Director
UNU-EHSBonn, Germany
3Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Global Environmental Change and Human Security
Adapted from concepts of UNDP, 1991 and Kofi Annan
Economic
Political
Community
Personal
Environmental
Health
Food
Sustainable Human Development
Freedom from Want Freedom from Fear
Glo
bal
En
viro
nm
enta
lC
han
ge
4Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Environmental change, climate change and conflicts
Climate change is increasingly discussed in relation to international conflicts and security in general(1)
For example, in the West-African Sahel(2):
• Droughts linked to climate variability increase the vulnerability of communities and conflicts
• Migration of pastoralists from the North towards southern regions occupied by sedentary farmers generated some conflicts. But reverse trends also exists whereby farmers from the South move towards the North because of land degradation processes.
However, straightforward causality effects are generally rare as many other factors come into play: economic, social, political and cultural (re. the discussions surrounding the Darfur conflict or “water wars”)
(1)Brown et al (2007): Climate change as the ‘new’ security threat: implications for Africa. International Affairs 83:1141-54(2)Nyong: Climate related conflicts in West Africa. ECSP Report, Issue No 12.
5Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Current & potential effects of climate change in Latin America
Climatic variability and extreme events are severely affecting the Latin America region over recent years (including Amazon drought in 2005)
During the last decades important changes in precipitation and increases in temperature have been observed
Land-use changes have intensified the use of natural resources and exacerbated many of the processes of land degradation:
• Three quarters of the drylands are affected by degradation processes
• Decrease in natural land cover through climatic and man-made impacts
Under future climate change, there is a risk of significant species extinctions in many areas of tropical Latin America:
• Replacement of tropical forest by savannas is expected in eastern Amazonia
• Replacement of semi-arid vegetation by arid vegetation in parts of north-east Brazil
The expected increases in sea-level rise, weather and climatic variability and extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas
Magrin et al. (2007): Fourth IPCC Report
6Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Likelihood that future summer average temperatures exceed highest summer
temperatures observed on record
2040-2060 2080-2100
Battisti et Naylor (2009): Historical warnings of future food insecurtiy with unprecedented historical heat. Science 323: 240-244
7Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Human security, vulnerability and climate change
Vulnerability of people and communities with respect to climate change depends on(1):
• Their dependence with respect to ecosystem services
• The impact of climate change on these ecosystems
• Adaptation capacities of the communities
Capacity to adapt reduces vulnerability:
• Societies adapt constantly
• However, what are their limits when considering climate change?
• Migration is a type of adaptation
(1)Barnett & Adger (2007): Climate change, human security and violent conflicts. Political Geography 36:639-655
8Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Environmental migration: estimates
Some estimates on environmental migration:• 24 millions (UNHCR 2002)
• 2010: 50 millions (Myers 2005)
• 2050: 200 millions most often quoted (Stern 2006, IOM 2008)
• After 2050: up to 700 millions (Christian Aid 2007)
Hundreds of millions (Stern, 2009) leading to conflicts
9Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
UNHCR and environmental migration
In terms of international governance there is a distinction between international and cross border displacements:
• Existing legal frameworks already consider internal displacements
• However some cross-border displacements are not covered by any legal framework
Displacement scenarios considered:
• Hydro-meteorological disasters;
• Zones designated by governments as being too high-risk;
• Environmental degradation and slow onset disasters;
• “Sinking” small island states; and
• Armed conflicts triggered by a decrease in essential resources.
Guterres (2008): Climate change, natural disasters and human displacement: a UNHCR perspective
10Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Proposed categories
Environmental Emergency Migrants (as opposed to Environmental Refugees):
• People who flee the worst of an environmental impact on a permanent or temporary basis. They have to take refuge to save their lives
Environmentally Forced Migrants:
• People who “have to leave” to avoid the worst of environmental degradation. The urgency of flight is less
Environmentally Motivated Migrants:
• People who “may leave” a steadily deteriorating environment to pre-empt the worst
11Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Rapid Onset Hazards(e.g. Floods, Earthquakes)
Loss of Ecosystem Services and
Slow Onset Hazards
Rapid and effective social, economic and
physical recovery of impacted areas
Migrant does notreturn to
impacted area
Slow and ineffective social, economic and
physical recovery of impacted areas
ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT
ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED
MIGRANT
ENVIRONMENTALEMERGENCY
MIGRANT
Action of fleeing to save one’s life
Person migrates awayfrom impacted area
Environmental reason for migration
decision dominant e.g. reoccurring droughts,
sea-level rise
Environmental reason for migration decision
not dominant
NOT AN ENVIRONMENTAL
MIGRANT
Accelerated degradationof ecosystems
e.g. pollution events, rapid soil erosion
Gradual degradation of ecosystems
e.g. land degradation, loss of biodiversity,
sea-level rise
ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT
ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED
MIGRANT
Migrant does notreturn to
impacted area
Alternative livelihoodwas possible inimpacted area
Alternative livelihoodwas possible in impacted
area but requiredsignificant time
No alternative livelihood was
possible in impacted area
Livelihoods Impacted
Land/home destroyed, lost and/or unsafe
Impacted area no longer exists
ENVIRONMENTALEVENT
Slo
w o
nset
haz
ards
&Lo
ss o
f ec
osys
tem
ser
vice
s
Rapid onset hazards
Preliminary definition framework
Renaud et al. (2009): A Decision Framework for Environmentally Induced Migration. Submitted to International Migration Journal
12Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Accelerated degradationof ecosystems
e.g. pollution events, rapid soil erosion
Loss of Ecosystem Services and
Slow Onset Hazards
Person migrates awayfrom impacted area
Environmental reason for migration
decision dominant e.g. reoccurring droughts,
sea-level rise
Environmental reason for migration decision
not dominant
NOT AN ENVIRONMENTAL
MIGRANT
Gradual degradation of ecosystems
e.g. land degradation, loss of biodiversity,
sea-level rise
ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT
ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED
MIGRANT
Alternative livelihoodwas possible inimpacted area
Alternative livelihoodwas possible in impacted
area but requiredsignificant time
No alternative livelihood was
possible in impacted area
Livelihoods Impacted
Impacted area no longer exists
13Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Figure f. Maps indicating number of people affected (and potentially displaced) under a 1 metre sea-level rise scenario based on current socio-economic and environmental conditions in Viet Nam (Source: Carew-Reid 2007, pp27-28 (modified))
14Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
1 m Sea level riseAmazon Delta
Source: CRESIS - http://www.cresis.ku.edu/research/data/sea_level_rise/index.html
17Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
The five-pronged approach: a call for simultaneous actions
Science:
• Better understanding between the cause-effects mechanisms (including other push/pull factors)
‐ Who migrates, where and when?
‐ For creeping processes, identification of crisis tipping points (thresholds)
• Quantification of migration responses to the impact of environmental degradation
‐ Rapid onset vs. “creeping” processes
• Scenarios and policies
‐ Link migration to adaptation strategies & to environmental and climate change
‐ Long term effects of resettlements
• Cooperation between all stakeholders
Source: Renaud, Bogardi, Dun, Warner (2007): Intersction No 5, UNU-EHSBogardi, Warner (2008): Here comes the flood. Nature 3:9-11
18Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
The five-pronged approach (cont’d)
Awareness: • Raise knowledge-based public and political awareness and its social,
economic, environmental dimensions
• Rectify the “Northern” bias
• Concept needs to be included in outcome of Copenhagen summit, UNCCD, IPCC
Legislation: • Establish and implement a framework that recognises environmental
migrants to protect adequately individuals displaced by environmental degradation processes
Humanitarian aid:• Empower the United Nations system and humanitarian organizations to
provide aid to environmental migrants
Institutional: • Establish institutions that are able to assist the flux of environmental
migrants
19Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Conclusions
Links between global environmental change, human security, migration and/or conflict can be real but:
• They are not always systematic
• There is a need for more research in order to establish the multiple causality factors
Governance plays a crucial role:
• Limit causes of conflicts which are often multiple
• Allow space for traditional conflict resolution mechanisms
• Facilitate adaptation to environmental change and climate change
This can only be achieved through a multi-stakeholder concerted approach (including in the Amazon basin)
20Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009
Thank YouMerci
Obrigado
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment and Human Security
(UNU-EHS)
Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10
D-53113 Bonn, Germany
Phone: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0200
Fax: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0299
E-Mail: [email protected]
www.ehs.unu.edu