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Unit 2:Aggregate Demand and Supply and Fiscal Policy
Topic 1: Aggregate Demand
Aggregate Demand is all the goods and services that buyers are willing and able to purchase at different
price levels.
Aggregate means “added all together.”
The Demand for everything by everyone in the US.
What is Aggregate Demand?
Aggregate Demand Curve
Price Level
Quantity of Real GDP (GDPR)4
AD
Inverse relationship between price level and
Quantity
Shifters of Aggregate Demand
5
Shifts in Aggregate Demand
Price Level
Quantity of Real domestic output (GDPR)
AD
Increase = RIGHT ; decrease = LEFT
AD1
AD2
Shifters of Aggregate Demand1. Change in Consumer Spending
Consumer Wealth (Boom in the stock market…) Wealth= assets that generate money (real estate, stock, property)
Consumer Expectations (People fear a recession…)Household Indebtedness (More consumer debt…)Income Taxes (Decrease in income taxes…)
* Important note: A change in WAGES does NOT impact C in AD because a change in nominal wages does NOT mean a change in REAL wages (Just because wages go up, does not mean you can purchase more) 7
Shifters of Aggregate Demand
2. Change in Investment Spending (business puts $ back into the
business) I = capital stock, construction and inventory
Things that impact I spending Interest Rates (Price of borrowing $)Future Business Expectations (High expectations…)Business Taxes (Higher corporate taxes means…)
8
Shifters of Aggregate Demand3. Change in Government Spending
Infrastructure…Nationalized Heath Care…defense spending…
4. Change in Net Exports can be influenced by a change in FOREIGN INCOME
** General rule: An increase in spending (any type) shifts AD right, and decrease in spending(any type)shifts it left
AD = GDP = C + I + G + Xn
Which way will AD shift??? 1. There is an increase in the wealth of American households.
2. The government increases income taxes.
3. There is a decrease in interest rates
4. The government increases spending on the military
5. The government decreases income taxes
6. The government raises business taxes
7. Investment spending decreases.
8. Price level increases
Topic 2: The Multiplier Effect
Why do cities want the Superbowl in their stadium?
MULTIPLIER EFFECT
• Someone’s spending (whether it be consumer, business, government etc) will always become someone else’s income
• The person who receives the income will turn around and spend it and the cycle continues
• Because of this there is a multiplied impact of spending on the economy.
Marginal Propensity to ConsumeMarginal Propensity to Consume (MPC)•How much people consume rather than save when there is a change in income.
MPC= Change in Consumption Change in Income
Examples: 1. If you received $100 and spent $50. What is MPC? 2. If you received $100 and spent $80. What is MPC? 3. If you received $100 and spent $90. What is MPC?
13
Marginal Propensity to Save
MPS= Change in Saving Change in Income
Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS)•How much people save rather than consume when there is a change in income.
Examples: 1. If you received $100 and save $50. MPS? 2. If you received $100 and save $30. MPS?
14
Why is this true?Because people can either save or consume
15
MPC + MPS = 1
If MPC is .8, what is MPS? If MPS is .1, what is MPC? If MPC is .6, what is MPS?
How is Spending “Multiplied”?Assume the MPC is .6 for everyone - Assume the Super Bowl comes to town and there is an increase of $100 in spending at Ashley’s restaurant.
Ashley has $100 more income.
Ashley spends $ 60 (60% of 100) at Carl’s salon and saves $ 40 (100 -60) Carl now has $60.
Carl spends $36 (60% of 60) at Dan’s fruit stand and saves $24 (60 -36)
Dan now has $36. Dan spends $21.60
(60% of 36) at Wendy’s and saves $14.40 (36 – 21.60)
How multiplier effect works
• New income of $100 ; MPC = .6 * remember someone’s spending becomes
someone else’s income
Round Income Spending Savings
1 (ashley) $100 $60 $40
2 (carl) $60 $36 $24
3 (dan) $36 $21.60 $14.40
Spending multiplier
» increase in spending = more $ goes into the economy (total GDP will increase)
1/MPS
» decrease in spending = less $ goes into the economy(total GDP will decrease)
- 1/MPS
Practice
• 1. If MPC is .8, what is the spending multiplier if investment spending decreases???
• 2. If the MPS is .1, what is the spending multiplier if government spending increases???
The smaller the MPS, the greater the spending multiplier will be!!!
How to use the spending multiplier
If Consumer Spending increases by $3 million, and the MPC is .8 How much will the GDP change by?
spending multiplier X change in spending
How figured: 1. find spending multiplier
1/MPS = 1/.2 = 5
2. Multiply the spending multiplier by the change in spending: 3 X 5 = $15
GDP will increase by a total of $15 million (5 X 15)
Tax Multiplier
• looks at the impact that taxes have on the entire economy (taxes also impact spending!)
If taxes go down: people have MORE $ to spend – GDP will INCREASE
MPC/MPS (if decrease in taxes)
If taxes go up: people have LESS money to spend – GDP will DECREASE
- MPC/MPS (if increase in taxes)
Practice
• MPC is .9, and taxes go up, what is the TAX multiplier???
• MPS is .2, and taxes go down, what is the TAX MULTIPLIER???
How to use the tax mutiplier• If the government decreases taxes by $50 million, and the
MPC is .8 by how much will the GDP change by? Tax multiplier X change in TAXES
How figured: 1. Find Tax multiplier
.8/.2 = 4
2. Multiple tax multiplier by change in taxes 4X50 = $200
GDP will increase by $200 million
Balanced Budge Multiplier
• Spending multiplier will always have a bigger impact on the economy than tax multiplier if spending and taxes both change by the same amount!
Balanced Budget Multiplier
• The spending multiplier and the tax multiplier combine to form the BALANCED BUDGET MULTIPLIER
BALANCED BUDGET MULTIPLIER = 1
1 X change in SPENDING = impact on the total economy
How to use the balanced budget multiplier
Rule: if both taxes and spending change by the same amount, they DON’T cancel each other out – spending will always have the bigger impact on the economy
Example: The G increases spending by $20 million while at the same time raising taxes by $20 million.
$20 X 1 = $20 • GDP will INCREASE by: $20 million
Balanced budget multiplier
Investment spending decreases spending by $5 million and at the same time, the government lowers taxes by $5million. If MPS is .1, how does this change the total GDP of the economy?
1 X -5 = - $ 5 million
Topic 3: Aggregate Supply
28
What is Aggregate Supply?
Aggregate Supply is the supply for everything by all firms.
Aggregate Supply differentiates between short run and long-run and has two different curves.
Short Run Aggregate Supply Curve
Price Level
Real domestic output (GDPR)
AS
30
Direct relationship between price level
and Quantity
Shifters of SR Aggregate Supply
Shifts in SR Aggregate Supply
Price Level
Real domestic output (GDPR)
AS
32
Increase = RIGHTWARD SHIFTdecrease = LEFTWARD SHIFT
AS1
AS2
Shifters of SR Aggregate Supply
1. Change in Resources Prices and quantity of Domestic and ImportedResources
wages (price of labor)
Supply Shocks(Negative Supply shock…)(Positive Supply shock…)
Shifters of SR Aggregate Supply
2. Legalities * Business taxes (shifts AD too!)
Subsides Government Regulations
3. Change in Productivity
4. Change in Technology 34
Which direction will SRAS shift???
1. There is an improvement in technology2. The government decreases business taxes 3. Worker wages decrease4. There is an increase in the price of resources
used in production5. Productivity declines for 3rd month in a row 6. Price level increases 7. Worker wages increase
AD and SRAS macroeconomic equilibrium price and quantity
Short run Macroeconomic equilibrium
If there is a shift in AD or SRAS, price level and quantity of real GDP will change Investment spending increases:
Price level _______ Q of GDPr _______
Wages increase causing the Cost of production to increase
Price level ___
Q of GDP ____
Practice WS : AD and SRAS
AD shifters
Change in Consumer spending (income, income taxes, wealth, confidence)
Change in Investment spending (interest rates, business taxes)
Change in Government spending
Change in Net export spending(foreign incomes)
SRAS shiftersChange in legalities (subsidies, business taxes)
Change in Resources (wages, resource prices & Q)
Change in productivity
Change in Technology
Topic 4: Short Run to LONG RUN
In the SHORT RUN – wages are STICKY; they DO NOT adjust to price changes
In the LONG RUN – wages are FLEXIBLE; they DO adjust to changes in prices
Short Run: 100 units sell for $1 each, TR = $100
The only cost is $80 of labor. How much is profit?
$100 - $80 = $20What happens in the SHORT-RUN if price level doubles?
100 units sell for $2, TR=$200.
Wages haven’t had the time to adapt to the change in prices (WAGES are STICKY – they are still $80)
How much is profit? $200 – 80 = $120
With higher prices, the firm has the incentive to increase production (because their profits will increase)
Long-Run Aggregate Supply100 units sell for $1 each; TR = $100 Cost to produce is $80 of labor
Profit = $20.What happens in the LONG-RUN if price level doubles?
100 units sell for $2.00 each; TR =$200 In the LONG RUN workers demand higher wages to match prices. Wages have had the time to adjust to price changes – Eventually, labor costs double too(wages are FLEXIBLE and adjust to price changes) Cost to produce is now $160 (instead of $80)
Profit: 200-80 =$40 *** REAL profit is unchanged.
If REAL profit doesn’t changethe firm has no incentive to increase
output.
So… LONG RUN AS is VERTICAL
Long run Aggregate Supply
Price level
GDPR
The economy is at FULL Employment
LRAS
QY
44
LRAS compares to PPC
On curve: Economy at FULL EMPLOYMENT All resources being used
Shifts of LRAS: Increase RIGHT; Decrease LEFT
Shifters of LRAS
Shifts for Same reasons PPC shifts:
1. Change in technology 2. Change in QUANTITY of resources
* General rule: LRAS will never shift by itself (SRAS will shift with it) However, SRAS can shift without LRAS shifting
Practice
48
Which curve will shift??? AD, SRAS, LRAS
• 1. An increase in consumer confidence • 2. An increase in incomes of U.S. trading partners • 3. A large decrease in the price of imported oil which
impacts the resource cost of business • 4. An increase in business taxes • 5. An improvement in technology• 6. 25% stock market increase over a two month period
which increases household wealth • 7. a decrease in interest rates • 8. A increase in wages
Topic 5: Putting AD, SRAS and LRAS together to getEquilibrium Price Level and Output
Putting AD, SRAS and LRAS together Practice WS : AD, SRAS and LRAS
AD shifters 1 Change in Consumer spending (income, income taxes, wealth, confidence)
2 Change in Investment spending (interest rates, business taxes)
3 Change in Govt spending
4 Change in Net export spending (foreign incomes)
SRAS shifters1Change in legalities (subsidies, business taxes)
2Change in Resources (prices of resources, quantity of resources, wages, energy prices, “supply shocks” )
3Change in productivity
4Change in Technology
LRAS shifters 1Change in technology 2Change in quantity of resources
Topic 6 : Economic Stability
A stable economy is represented by: 1. Economic growth 2. Price stability 3. Full employment
Economics Statistics
Economic growth
Unemployment
Inflation
Measured by
Real GDP People not working but looking
CPI (consumer price index)
Acceptable Over 2.5%
Under 6% Up to 4%
Economic Instability
• High unemployment/Recession
• High Inflation
• Stagflation – high unemployment and inflation AT SAME TIME
Graphs showing Inflationary and Recessionary Gaps
Full employment equilibriumEconomy at FE with acceptable price level
Price Level
57
AS
Inflationary Gap
GDPR
LRAS
AD
PL
Q
Output is high and employment is greater than FE
Actual GDP above
FE/potential GDP
Economy is here, But should be At FE
Inflationary Gap
How can we be beyond the FE line???
In the SR, economy can overuse resources, but CANNOT be sustained in the LONG RUN (ex. pulling all –nighters to study…)
Price Level
59
AD
GDPR
PL
Q
LRAS AS
Recessionary Gap
Output low and employment is less than FE
Actual GDP below
FE/potential GDPEconomy is here,
But should be at FE
STAGFLATION
If both inflation and unemployment are high STAGFLATION will occur
What curve shift illustrates this problem? This problem is represented by a DECREASE in SRAS
Stagflation – high inflation and high unemployment AT SAME TIME
The economy begins at FE and the G increases spending. Shift the curve on the
graph
What economic problem does this cause???
The economy begins at FE and net export spending decreases.
Shift the curve on the graph
What economic problem does this cause???
Topic 7: Self adjusting economy
64
Flexible wages in the Long run
The economy can adjust to FE equilibrium over time as wages change to adjust to price changes
Price Level
66
AD
AS
Assume inflation is occurring in the economy
GDPR
LRAS
AD1
PL
Q
Price Level
67
AS
If inflation occurs, what will happen in the LONG RUN?
GDPRQ1
AD
PL
Q
LRAS
workers seek higher wages and wages increase. An increase in wages SHIFTS AS to LEFT
AS1
PL1
Back to full employment with higher price level
Price Level
68
AD
AS
GDPR
LRAS
ADAD
Q
PL
Assume a recession is occurring in the economy
Price Level
69
AS
If recession occurs, what happens in the Long Run? workers accept lower wages so wages decrease
When wages decrease, SRAS shifts to the right
GDPR
LRAS
Q1AD
PL
Q
AS1
PL1
AS increases as workers accept lower wages and production
costs fall
Topic 8: The Phillips Curve
SRPC Shows tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.
Inflation
71
SRPC
Short Run Phillips Curve
Unemployment2% 9%
1%
5%
When the economy is overheating, there is low unemployment but high inflation (A)
When there is a recession, unemployment is high but
inflation is low (B)
A
B
Shifts of Short run Phillip’s curve
1. inflation and unemployment move in the SAME direction, there will be a SHIFT of the SRPC
-If inflation and unemployment both go up; SRPC shifts to the RIGHT
- If both go down, SRPC shifts to the LEFT 2. Change in inflationary expectations
if these increase, SRPC shifts RIGHT if these decrease, SRPC shifts LEFT
73
Assume stagflation occurs Draw an AD/AS graph showing this
SRAS SHIFTS TO THE LEFT
In the Short run, what happens Price level? increasesUnemployment? increases
Inflation
74
SRPC
Unemployment
What is impact on SRPC? Shifts to the right
SRPC1
Consumers begin to save more money. Draw an AD/AS graph that shows this
AD SHIFTS TO THE LEFT
In the short run, what happens to Price level? DecreasesUnemployment? INcreases
Inflation
76
A
B
SRPC
Unemployment
What is impact on SRPC? Movement down along original curve
The prices of resources decrease. Draw an AD/AS graph showing this
SRAS SHFITS TO THE RIGHT What happens in the short run to
price level? decreases unemployment? decreases
Inflation
78
SRPC 1
Unemployment
What is impact on SRPC? Shifts to the left
SRPC
From Short run Phillips curve to Long run Phillips curve
• Because the SRPC is continually shifting in the LONG RUN, there is no trade off between inflation and unemployment
Example: The economy is at FE and interest rates increase
What problem does this create? RECESSION
What happens in the long run to…– Price level DECREASES– Unemployment DECREASES
What will happen to the SRPC in the Long Run?SHIFTS to the LEFT
Example: The economy is at FE and consumer spending increases
What problem does this create? INFLATION
What happens in the long run to…– Price level? INCREASES – Unemployment INCREASESWhat will happen to the SRPC in the Long Run?
SHIFTS TO the RIGHT
Inflation
82Unemployment2% 9%
1%
5%
3%
5%
LRPC
In the long run there is no tradeoff between inflation and unemployment due to SRPC continually shifting
The LRPC is vertical at the Natural Rate of Unemployment
SHIFTS OF LRPC
LRPC can shift if there is a change in the Natural rate of unemployment
• LRPC will never shift by itself (if you shift LRPC, shift SRPC too!)
84
Phillips curve at FE equilibrium
Inflation
SRPC
UnemploymentUY
LRPCThe unemployment rate is at the NATURAL RATE
and
inflation rate is at the EXPECTED RATE
85
Inflationary Gap on Phillips Curve
Inflation
SRPC
UnemploymentUY
LRPC
86
Recessionary Gap on the Phillips Curve
Inflation
SRPC
UnemploymentUY
LRPC
Topic 9: Economic theories
CLASSICAL VIEW OF ECONOMY:Does not distinguish between short run and long run.
wages as being flexible and that they QUICKLY adjust to changes in price level
The economy does not need intervention to adjust
View the Short Run AS as VERTICAL
The Ratchet EffectA ratchet (socket wrench)
permits one to crank a tool forward but not backward.
88
Does deflation (falling prices) often occur?Not as often as inflation. Why?
Prices and wages are more flexible upward as opposed to downward
Like a ratchet, prices can easily move up but not down!
89
Keynesian View of EconomyUnlike the classical view, Keynesians don’tthink the economy can quickly adjust to fix itself (at least
in times of recession; due to the ratchet effect)
View aggregate supply as horizontal at low output
Wages are STICKY – they do NOT quickly adjustto price changes
THEREFORE…. Government intervention in the economy is necessary to fix it!!!
Keynesian Theory- Horizontal ASRecession will be persistent because wages are not
flexible (they will not go down to return the economy to FE)
Price level
Real domestic output, GDP
AS
Three Ranges of Aggregate Supply1. Keynesian Range- Horizontal 2. Intermediate Range- Upward sloping3. Classical Range- Vertical
Price level
Real domestic output, GDP
AS
92
Keynesian Range
IntermediateRange
ClassicalRange
Topic 10: Fiscal Policy
93
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal Policy: Actions by Congress to speed up or slow down the economy (rather than waiting for the economy to self adjust) Based on: Keynesian theory- Wages are sticky, so economy does not quickly self adjustGovernment intervention is NECESSARY to return the economy to stability
A stable economy should have: 1. stable prices 2. full employment 3. economic growth
Two Types of Fiscal Policy: Discretionary and Automatic
1. Discretionary Fiscal Policy-Congress creates and passes a new bill
ex. Congress votes to implement a tax cut
2. Automatic Stabilizers Permanent spending or taxation laws enacted to work
counter cyclically to stabilize the economy Ex: Welfare, Unemployment, Min. Wage, etc.
•When there is high unemployment, unemployment benefits to citizens increase consumer spending.
Expansionary Fiscal Policy
• Implemented during RECESSION
• Goal is to SPEED UP economy without causing too much inflation
• Need to increase AD
Video example of expansionary fiscal policy
How can the government speed up the economy????
1. Increase government spending (public works, roads, schools etc.) *need to account for the SPENDING MULTIPLIER
2. Decrease personal income taxes (Consumers will have more $, so they will spend
more) *need to account for the TAX MULTIPLIER
• * government can increase its spending, decrease taxes or do both – any of these actions increase AD
• Expansionary policy will result in a DEFICIT BUDGET
• Deficit Budget: the government spends more $ than what they take in
Contractionary Fiscal Policy
Implemented during INFLATION
Goal is to SLOW DOWN economy without causing recession
Want to decrease AD
How can the government slow down the economy???
1. Decrease government spending * need to account for spending multiplier
2. Raise personal income taxes *need to consider tax multiplier
• * Government can decrease its spending, raise income taxes or both – any of these actions will slow down the economy/decrease AD
• Contractionary Policy results in a SURPLUS BUDGET
• Surplus Budget: the government spends less $ than what they take in
Problems With Fiscal Policy
Problems With Fiscal Policy
1. Deficit Spending!!!!•A Budget Deficit – government spending exceeds its revenue. •The National Debt is the accumulation of all the budget deficits over time.
Most economists agree that budget deficits are a necessary evil because forcing a balanced budget would
not allow Congress to stimulate the economy.
Additional Problems with Fiscal Policy2 Problems of Timing
• Recognition Lag- Congress must react to economic indicators before it’s too late
• Administrative Lag- Congress takes time to pass legislation
3. Politically Motivated Policies• Politicians may use economically inappropriate
policies to get reelected.
Topic 11: Focus on National Debt
The National Debt: CNBC explains
• 1. What is the difference between deficit spending and the national debt?
• 2. What is the DEBT CEILING? • 3. If the government borrows $, how does it
get the money it needs? • 4. Who/what is the largest holder of U.S.
debt?
Where does the State and local government get $ from???
• Where does the Federal Government get its money???
Income taxes Tax based on the “income” a person earns
Americans pay an income tax to: 1. The federal government 2. The state government 3. The local government
These taxes appear on a person’s pay check stub
The purpose of filing taxes at the end of the year is to determineif a person has overpaid or underpaid their taxes
EXAMPLE OF PAYCHECK STUB
• Stossel goes to Washington: segment 1(7:40)
Countries with the highest income tax rates
Country Tax rate Kicks in at….
Aruba 58.9% $165,000
Sweden 56.6% $81,000
Denmark 55.4% $76,000
Netherlands 52% $72,000
Austria 50% $80,000
Belgium 50% $46,900
Japan 50% $217,000
United Kingdom 50% $231,000
Finland 49.2% $91,000
Ireland 48% $43,900
U.S. = 23rd; at 39.6% at $400,000 *Source: CNBC
• Where does the State and local government spend money???
Where does the federal government spend money ?
• everything else includes education, veterans benefits, national resources, foreign aid, Immigration, response to natural disasters
Military spending around the worldhttp://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/factsheet2010
What is the national debt???
• Debt occurs when government revenue (primarily from taxes) is less than government spending.
• Therefore debt will rise whenever..– revenue falls– spending increases
Debt in the past decade
• 2001: $5.8 trillion• 2002: $6.2 trillion• 2003: $6.8 trillion• 2004: $7.4 trillion• 2005: $7.9 trillion• 2006: $8.5 trillion• 2007: $9.0 trillion• 2008: $10.0 trillion• 2009: $11.9 trillion• 2010: $13.6 trillion
• DEBT CLOCK
It would take 200,000 years to count to 1 trillion!!!!!
Countries with the largest debts
17-120
Countries with largest debt as compared to GDPs
Ownership of the Debt
Situation:
GDP: -1.2%
Inflation rate= -.5%
Unemployment Rate=25%
Solution???
Situation:
GDP :8%
Inflation rate= 4.1%
Unemployment Rate=1.2%
Solution???
Situation:• GDP: -0.3%• Inflation rate= 13.5%• Unemployment Rate=7.1%
Solution??
4.) 2003Situation:• GDP fell 0.5%• Inflation rate= 1.5%• Unemployment Rate=12.0%
Your Solution:
What actually happened:• Congress voted to give tax cuts to
citizens. (Bush Tax Cuts)
126