Understanding Energy Crisis in The World

What is a Quadrillion?

Reality vs Promises

(Science vs. Political Science)

Understanding the Energy Crisis

How Much Energy Does The

World Use?

Where Does it Come From?

What are our options for the Future?

Can Renewable Energy save us?

Projected World Wide Energy

Needs

What is this?

How much is it?

“Let’s Define New Unit of Energy”Energy=Power x Time

“1 Unit” =1000 Megawatts of electric power for 1 yr

“A typical large power plant”

ABOUT: 0.1 Quadrillion BTU’s

2200 Megawatt thermal energy for one year

9 million Megawatt-hrs electricity

15 million barrels of oil or ~50 super tankers per yr

3 million tons of coal ~ 36500 car loads per yr (train/day)

90 billion cubic ft of Natural gas per yr (~1 cubic mile)

1 ton Uranium per yr (about a 15”x15”x15” cube)

Energy for about 300,000 People in US for a year

World Wide Energy Needs

All Energy-Not just Electrical

~7200

“Units”Today-

~5630

“Units”

Growth 2%

~100 units/yr

2 a week!

“Approx Units” 1900 1150 1300 300 300 50

World Energy Consumption by

Source

~5630

Total Units

Today

Renewables

Today! <1%

What about The Japan/United States

Consumption?

Sources?

Future Needs?

Use about 1000 Units!

Understanding the Energy Crisis

Total Energy domestic/Imported

230 units

120 units

30 units ea

~10 units (<1%)

Imported oil

30

300 units

~1000 “units” used today

Growth rate ~2%/year or

20 “units”

30

80 units

200 units

Canada 19%

Mexico & S.Ara. 10%/ea

Venezuela&Nig. 9%ea

Solar, Wind,

bio-mass

World Energy use by fuel type

Renewables 6% of

total (hydro, wood,

included.

Growing yes, but,

Percent shrinking?

Where is Crude Oil Consumed

(USA)

Personal Cars(About 10% of total energy) ~33%

Trucking ~20%

Planes and Ships ~10%

Chemical Products(over 4000) ~12%

Industrial Heat ~10%

Heat, Light, Electric Power ~8%

Miscellaneous ~7%

Nearly everything in our lives is made from oil, made by machinery and systems

dependent on oil, and transported by oil Power.

Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics,

Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach

Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking,

Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants,

Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring

Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food

Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers,

Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides,

Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume,

Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol, Shampoo, Shaving Cream,

Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes,

Yarn,……

Products from Oil

Let’s Look at Renewables!

They’ve been a goal for a long time!

They get a lot of political play; it’s politically correct!

They would reduce Greenhouse gases vs coal/oil

They won’t run out!

Can they save us?

Can they eliminate dependence on foreign oil?

State of the Union (Who said it? When?)

I urge the energy measures that I have proposed be made the first

priority of this session of the Congress. …..They will prevent the

injustice of windfall profits for a few as a result of the sacrifices of the

millions of Americans.

This must be the year in which we organize a full-scale effort to provide

for our energy needs through the 21st century. Let this be our national

goal: the United States will not be dependent on any other country for

the energy we need

….we plan to spend $10 billion in Federal funds over the next 5 years.

That is an enormous amount. But during the same 5 years, private

enterprise will be investing as much as $200 billion-- and in 10 years,

$500 billion--to develop the new resources, the new technology, the new

capacity America will require for its energy needs in the future.

Richard Nixon’s State of Union Address 1974

State of Union Address (Who said it? When?)

… our country finally has a national energy policy:

The windfall profits tax on crude oil has been enacted, and a massive

investment in the production and development of alternative energy

sources; Solar energy funding has been quadrupled, solar energy tax

credits enacted…. Ethanol production has been dramatically increased,

an amount that could enable ethanol to meet the demand for 10 percent

of all unleaded gasoline;

..it is essential that the Nation reduce its dependence on imported fossil

fuels and complete the transition to reliance on domestic renewable

sources of energy,…

…first step towards widespread introduction of renewable energy sources

and established an ambitious national goal for the year XXXX of

obtaining 20 percent of this Nation's energy from solar and renewable

sources. As a result of these policies and programs… investments in

renewable energy sources have grown significantly.

Jimmy Carter State of Union Address 1980

Renewable energy about 6% of Total

Distribution of

the 6%

i.e. Niagara Falls,

Hoover Dam, Bonneville

Dam, etc 58%

Wood stoves, etc

i.e. Lock 7, NYSEG

Mechanicville, etc

Wind farms

(double this by 2008)

Ethanol

Solar Heat

“For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over

public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.”

—Richard Feynman

Energy Density is very low!

One elephant and 100,000 mice have about the same biomass. Which

do you want to try to harness to move a railcar? It’s possible, but how

practical?

It’s the ENTROPY!

Why so little progress?

Area Required for “one unit” of power

Wind 3000 turbines 40-70 square miles

Solar Photovoltaic 40 square miles

Bio Mass Ethanol 6000 square miles

Bio Mass Wood 12000 square miles

Bio gas 800 million chickens!

Oil/Coal About 1 square mile

Nuclear 0.3 square miles

Taxila Wahcantt 800 sq miles

Rawalpindi 1000 sq miles

Conservation (a must!-part of assumed growth of only 2%)

Renewables (Solar, Wind, Ethanol, Hydro, Geothermal, Bio-mass)

Domestic Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

How to replace Foreign oil “300 units”

(Plus 20 new “units” in demand per year)

Options

Conservation: Must be part of any plan

Some conservation in 2% growth

Doing pretty good! (Next chart) We need to do more!

Cars about 90 units. 10% increase in CAFÉ

saves 9 units when all cars converted (~10yrs)

Reduce our standard of living? Competitive economy

requires abundant energy

World energy demand is growing! (Without us!)

Conserve yes, but can’t save out of the crisis!

Energy Use and Cost

More Cars

TV’s

Electronics

Central air

Computers

Population Growth

Flat, with

“Standard of Living” vs Energy Use

4,000 8,000 12,0000.3

1.0

India

China

Pakistan

Russia

Germany

Australia

Canada

UK

France Japan

U.S.

Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita

0.6

80% of the world’s

population is

below 0.8 on the

UN’s Human

Development

Index (HDI)

Prosperity

Education

Life span

Electrical Energy Use vs Quality of Life

Why growth in demand?

China, India, Brazil(CIB) 3 billion people

United States 300 million (1/10th)

China, India, Brazil ~1200 kwh/capita

USA ~12000 kwh/capita

When CIB usage goes from 1200 to 2400 kwh/capita,

we would have to go “0” to keep world demand constant!

CONCLUSION: Conservation yes! But we can’t

save our way out of this!

Wind PowerFuel is free, renewable, non-polluting, it’s relatively simple!

But: Wind Power is Intermittent (20 to 40% capacity factor)

40 to 70 square miles (3000 turbines) for 1000 MW

But land may still be useable-pasture/crops/factories…

Diffuse energy creates integration/synchronization issues

Often not produced where needed-transmission

Not grid friendly, need storage or Coal/Nuclear backup!

Is it environmentally acceptable? On mountain peaks?

Near population?

Do as much as possible when feasible and economical.

Maple Ridge Wind Farm

195 Turbines

320 MW installed capacity

$550 Million cost

22000 Acres/34 sq miles

1.6 MW per turbine

Lewis County, Tug Hill Plateau 1600 to 2000 feet elev

Delivers about 0.1 “Unit” on average

Solar Power (World total installed about “16 units”-delivers about “4 units”)

Lots of it, fuel is free, conceptually simple, passive

But: Photovoltaic very costly per megawatt, high maintenance

Solar Thermal costly-need mirrors + heat sink (in the desert?)

Doesn’t work night/cloudy days, capacity factor less than 25%

Energy density extremely low- 40 square miles for 1000MW

Prime locations Southwest desert-far from users

Not Grid friendly, need storage or coal/nuclear backup

Home owners get 30% Fed tax credit

Best use-small scale passive home heating, hot water, remote areas

Solar Photovoltaic

Germany

6 MW

.006 “Units”

Nevada “planned”

6.3 MW

.0063 units

HYDROELECTRIC

Ideal for electric generation, very cost effective, no carbon

dioxide emission, relatively simple.

But: Water distribution diffuse but nature concentrates for us

Not many remaining opportunities to exploit

Environmental concern? – damming of wild rivers?

Useful storage option where available-i.e. pump station

It’s great, use as much as possible, but will be

limited to about 5% of total needs (can we use

tides?)

GEOTHERMAL

Great source of zone heating and electric power where

available. (Like Iceland)

Large heat source deep in earths core, hard to get at,

hard to extract large quantities

Few accessible supplies-need both hot rocks and water

There is a 50 degree F heat sink 10 feet down! How to use it?

Do whenever feasible, but NOT readily available

Possibilities? Maybe!

Nesjavellir Iceland

0.12 “Units” Plus hot water heating

Geothermal Plant

It’s an attractive concept!

It’s Renewable-can be replenished

Plants take Carbon Dioxide back out of the air

But: Uses a lot of land, Competes food supplies

One acre of corn provides 40 or 50 gallons of Ethanol

May use more energy than produced?

One “unit” takes area greater than Rhode Island

Burning wood, converting corn or soy beans into ethanol, use

vegetation to make diesel fuel, algae into diesel!

Biomass

Not a good solution!

OIL/GASOLINE Provides 95% of Transportation, supports many Industrial

Products, Transportation infrastructure is in place

But: High carbon dioxide emission

Cost rising rapidly

Supplies limited- peak oil? Oil shale possibility-costly

We need to import large amounts, economy vulnerable

We’re vulnerable to “blackmail with many dollars going to

our “enemies”

Use for Transportation and Industrial Production.

Drill-will need all we can get-Increase supplies!

NATURAL GASProvides most of the home and commercial heating(cheapest

option), infrastructure in place, domestic supply, easily

transported. High energy content.

But: Upward pressures on price/demand

Rapid growth in use for electrical generation; a more

expensive option

Usable for transportation, but need major infrastructure

Available supplies should be used for home and

commercial heating. Avoid excessive cost growth!

Prairie States Plant Illinois-Planned

1.6 “Units” A newer clean coal plant

New Coal Plant

Nuclear Power

Provides 20% of our electric power; safe, clean, green, Equals

coal with lowest electricity fuel cost.

But: No new plants for 20 years

Waste storage an issue-political?

New plants have high initial construction cost

Public acceptance

Nuclear must be a major source of future energy . Can also be used for producing water and hydrogen. Can

breed new fuel when needed!

North Anna ESP SiteTypical Nuclear Power Plant

Country # Under

Constructio

n

# Planned or

Proposed

Argentina 1

Brazil 1

Bulgaria 1

Canada 1 4

China 4 27

Czech

Republic

2

Egypt 1

Finland 1

France 1

India 9 24

Indonesia 2

Iran 1 4

Israel 1

Country # Under

Construction

# Planned or

Proposed

Japan 2 12

N. Korea 1 1

S. Korea 8

Pakistan 1

Romania 1 3

Russia 4 9

Slovakia 2

So. Africa 1

Turkey 3

Ukraine 1

USA 1

Vietnam 2

Total 24 113

World Nuclear Association, world-nuclear.org

New Nuclear Plants

Uranium Supply

World Reserves! View of Options

Oil-Use 2500 Units of Oil = ~40 billion Barrels/yr

Reserve is ~1300 billion Barrels =~35 to 50 years

Oil sand/shale maybe ~ 30 years more-expensive?

Coal-Use 1800 Units= 3 millions tons of coal

Reserve is ~ 900 billion tons = 200 to 300 years

Natural Gas-Use 1300 Units = 3Trillion Cubic Meters

Reserve is ~ 180 trillion Cubic Meters=60 to 80 years

Uranium- Use 400 Units

Reserve is ~ 200yrs to >>1000’s yrs (with breeding)

Total use is 5000 “Units” per year

SummaryCoal must remain be a major source of our electricity.

Fix the CO2

Nuclear energy must become big player-Open Yucca, reprocess

Oil will be in Short Supply! Costs going up!

Use for transportation/industrial products

Natural gas should be used for home and commercial heating

Wind do as much as practical, develop storage

New capacity likely less than the “20 unit”/yr growth? (60,000 turbines/yr)

Solar and geothermal when economical-will be small players!

Biomass is wrong approach except in special situations

Conclusion

Do renewables when cost effective. They can reduce CO2

Renewables will not be major player in reducing oil dependence

Solar –costly, diffuse-best use-home heating/hot water

Wind viable, can help, but limited and not grid friendly

Bio-mass small player, doesn’t make sense

Making renewables focus is not reality

Obscures the hard choices

Coal & Nuclear will be the major players-do them right!

Oil / Gas will be scarce, prices will go back up! Domestic Drilling

BACKUP SLIDES

USA Energy Source/Use (%)Note: 1% is about 10 of our new “Units”

Natural Gas Production and Price

Goal/Purpose of talk

1. Educate public about our energy crisis; how big is the problem,

how world energy demand effects it, …Put it terms that are

more understandable

2. Show what options are valid/which are not, based science, not

politics!

3. Put current political posturing/pandering on energy in

perspective

4. Briefly discuss pros and cons of the different options

Petroleum, coal, wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, et al

5. This is not a pro nuclear talk, but conclusion is that we should

pursue most options but coal and nuclear are only viable

solutions for foreseeable future.

About 5000 Total “Units”

1 TW approx 400 “units”

World Energy Consumption

Approx

No. EQ

Units

2000

1600

1300

350

150

Barrel of Crude Oil

Understanding the Energy Crisis