Understanding our Joint Water-Climate Change

Challenge & Exploring Policy Options for Cooperation on the Afghan-Pak Transboundary

Kabul River Basin PEER IV

3 - 5 December 2018, Almaty

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Scientific I. Mapping the current status of surface

water availability and river flow in the transboundary Kabul River Basin; including future demands and consumption

II. Studying the projected impact of climate change on the Kabul River Basin waters through changes in glacial melt, snow melt, rainfall and temperature

Development I. Exploring possible avenues of

cooperation and mutually beneficial uses for both Afghanistan and Pakistan policy makers, based on the concept of benefit sharing on the transboundary waters of Kabul River basin.

II. Proposing an integrated basin wide approach to guide policy making in the management, governance and development of the transboundary river

Objectives

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PMD & GCISC

CAREC Kazakhstan

Green Social Research

Organization – Afghanistan

Ministry of Climate

Change – Pakistan

Project Milestones

Research Papers

based on Kabul River

Basin

Discussion Papers

Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation

Event Report

Bilateral Discussions

through Talk Series

Policy briefs

based on research papers

Policy Dialogue in

Pakistan and Afghanistan

2nd Pak-Afghan

Stakeholders Consultation

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1. Research

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) conducted research on the Kabul River Basin with respect to Climate Change I. PMD Research: Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin using a multi-

model ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data (published in the Earth Systems and Environment Journal: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-018-0061-y)

Key Findings: • Upper reaches of the basin show an annual and seasonal warming of approximately 6.8 °C by

the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario (95% confidence level) • The rise in summer and winter temperatures may negatively affect the snow accumulation

during winter and has the potential to accelerate glacier melting during summers. • There is an evidence that in the 21st century, precipitation may decrease up to 50 percent

across Kabul River Basin

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1. Research

II. GCISC Research: Impact of the 21st century climate change on surface water availability of the Transboundary Kabul River Basin (under review by the journal)

Key Findings: • A greater increase in annual average discharge is predicted with increased variability of the

Kabul River flows • Under both RCP scenarios, the annual maximum flow values in the order of ≥ 6000 m³ /s

have a higher frequency which is alarming as it will lead to floods in the nearby regions • The projected increase in temperature will not only amplify the evaporation but also the water

requirement of the crops and other consumers • Due to high water demand and shortage of water, most of the crops give lower yield and will

find it difficult to survive in these harsh/extreme weather conditions 5

2. Discussion Papers

Two discussion papers were drafted before the Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation in Kazakhstan: I. Prospects for Benefit Sharing in the Transboundary Kabul River Basin: Investigating

the Social, Economic and Political Opportunities and Constraints Key Findings – Ashfaq Mahmood (available at: http://www.lead.org.pk/lead/publications.aspx, 36)

The discussion paper highlighted:

• The costs and benefits of the Transboundary Water Cooperation • Global examples (case studies) of mutual cooperation such as: Indus Waters Treaty

between Pakistan and Afghanistan and Afghan-Iran Helmand Water Treaty • Constraints and prospects of benefit sharing between Pakistan and Afghanistan

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2. Discussion Papers

II. Challenges and Opportunities for Implementing an Integrated Basin-wide Approach to the Management of Kabul River Waters – Shafqat Kakakhel (available at: http://www.lead.org.pk/lead/publications.aspx, 37)

The discussion paper highlighted: • Water resources in Pakistan and Afghanistan along with their respective management • Considerable opportunities for mutually beneficial water- related cooperation between

the two countries including jointly building and managing power plants, irrigation infrastructure, agricultural development, monitoring of river flows and sharing of information and data for coping with more frequent floods and droughts as a result of climate change

• The need of a Joint Commission to discuss broader cooperation on shared rivers 7

3. Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation - Almaty • Purpose: To engage a bilateral audience to explore avenues of cooperation on Pak-

Afghan Pakistan benefit sharing of Kabul River Basin • Date:12th-14th April 2018 • Discussions: I. Consultation on the research papers and discussion papers drafted in the initial

phase II. Identification of deficiencies prevalent on both sides of the border such as trust

deficit, lack of awareness and capacity building, and outdated water economy models

III. Exploration of future avenues of cooperation along with policy recommendations such as transparency in all dealings and creation of an information and data sharing system

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4. Pak-Afghan Consultation Report

• Based on the Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation held in Almaty a report was compiled and published

• It stressed on the adoption of a benefit shared approach by both countries and highlighted the economic and social significance of the Kabul River Basin to both Pakistan and Afghanistan

• The report summarized the key findings and contained a policy brief at the end, including recommendations such as:

I. Transparent due diligence of all proposed projects II. Systematic ‘capacity building and awareness’ strategy for

decision makers, researchers etc. III. Data sharing between the two countries (available at: http://www.lead.org.pk/lead/Publications/Afghanistan-Pakistan%20Stakeholders%20Consultation.pdf)

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As part of LEAD’s Talk Series on Managing Shared Basins, the following topics have been discussed and shared with Afghan participants through webinars : • Afghanistan-Pakistan Transboundary Water Relations: Engaging with an Estranged Neighbour (Speaker:

Mr. Khalid Aziz) • Integrated Basin wide approaches to the management of Kabul River: Challenges and Opportunities

(Speaker: Shafqat Kakakhel) • Is the Columbia River Treaty Experience relevant for benefit sharing on Kabul River Basin (Speaker: Mr.

William Doan) • Is the Murray Darling Basin success relevant and beneficial to Indus Basin (Speaker: Dr. Bashir Ahmad) • Lessons for Pakistan from Turkey Armenia Water Agreement (Speaker: Mehmet Altingoz) • Water Cooperation in Central Asia: History and Trend (Speaker: Dr. Iskandar Abdullaev) • Inland Navigation – An Instrument of Peace and Prosperity in Shared Basins (Speaker: Dr. Hassan Abbas) (Updates available at: http://www.lead.org.pk/talks/index.htm)

5. Bilateral Discussions through LEAD’s Talk Series

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6. Policy Briefs based on Research Papers

• In order to provide solutions to the key issues identified during the Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation and the alarming projections in the research papers presented by PMD and GCISC, LEAD drafted two policy briefs

• These policy briefs suggested: I. Shifting towards water-efficient crop varieties, adjusting cropping pattern and sowing

window to match water availability and suitability of climatic conditions II. Introducing rainwater harvesting to help aquifer recharge as part of groundwater

conservation and sustainable management III. Developing efficient early warning systems with international cooperation and

participation of the vulnerable communities, especially to deal with flash floods IV. Creating awareness among local communities about climate change and its impacts on

future rivers flows as well as on mitigation and adaptation strategies

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7. Policy Dialogue in Pakistan & Afghanistan

• In order to mobilize national stakeholders on a common agenda, a policy dialogue will be conducted in Pakistan and Afghanistan respectively

• In collaboration with the Ministry of Climate Change (Pakistan) we have organized an event titled “Pakistan at Global Warming of 1.5 – 2 °C: Capturing Opportunities and Managing Challenges”, this policy dialogue will refer to IPCC’s latest report and discuss its finding pertinent to Pakistan and Afghanistan

• Government officials, researchers and subject-matter experts will come together and discuss the impacts of Climate Change on Kabul River Basin and its inevitable consequences on key issues such as food security and energy crisis.

• The policy dialogue in Afghanistan was held in collaboration with Green Social Research Organization on 18th November 2018. They key organizers included:

I. Said Shakib Atef – Founder GSRO & Transboundary Water Management Researcher II. Fahima Sadeqinezhad – President III. Shakiba Atef – Research Assistant

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8. 2nd Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation

• Purpose: To devise an Integrated Basin Wide Approach for the Management of Kabul River waters

• Based on the positive outcomes of the first Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation, the second edition will focus on formulating a pragmatic solution to guide policy making in the management, governance and development of the transboundary Kabul River

• The policy briefs for the two research papers will also be presented in order to obtain a set of multifaceted set of recommendations and include them in this integrated approach

• The event is scheduled for January 2019 13

www.slideproject.com

2 Discussion Papers

Outputs So Far

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4

6

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Event Report

2 Policy Briefs

2 Research Papers (published as Journal articles)

Pak-Afghan Stakeholder Consultation, Almaty (12th-14th April 2018)

Bilateral Discussions through Talk Series

7 Policy Dialogue in Afghanistan (18th November 2018)

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8 Policy Dialogue in Pakistan (30th November 2018)

Thank you!

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