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NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Understanding Driver Refueling Behavior
Ryan Daley, NREL
January, 30 2014
2
Agenda
1. Alternative Fuel use in the Federal fleet
2. Empirical analysis of refueling behavior
3. Survey of Federal fleet drivers
4. Changing driver refueling behavior
3
Federal fleet Acquisitions & Inventory
Total FY 2013 AFV Acquisitions by covered Federal Agencies
Total FY 2013 AFV Inventory of covered Federal Agencies
GAS 14,757
E85 21,317
HEV 1,384 DSL
3,792
CNG 113
EV 274
PHEV 258
LPG 23
HYD 2
GAS 325,657 E85
177,892
DSL 63,913
HEV 15,833
PHEV 507
ELE 3,608
CNG 1,437
LPG 204 HYD
5
4
FY13 Petroleum Consumption
Total Petroleum 292,282,393
Diesel 53,487,487
B20 Diesel 4,248,008
Gasoline 234,546,898
253,676,039
211,396,699
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
E.O. 13514 Requirement
*Excludes military tactical, law
enforcement, and emergency vehicles.
Includes Diesel portion of Biodiesel B20.
5
16,217,531
E-85 14,055,686
Bio-diesel 1,481,936
11,629,942
22,663,468
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CNG
LPG
Electric
Hydrogen
LNG
Total Alternative Fuel
FY13 Alternative Fuel Consumption
*Excludes military tactical, law enforcement, and emergency vehicles.
**Includes all alternative fuels: Biodiesel portion of B20, B100, E85, CNG, LNG, LPG, Hydrogen, and Electricity.
E.O. 13423 Requirement
6
Gasoline 76.0%
Diesel 18.7%
E-85 86.7%
Bio-diesel 9.1%
CNG 2.2%
LPG 1.5%
Electric 0.5%
Alt. Fuel 5.3%
FY13 Alternative Fuel Consumption
AFV’s comprise 34% of all Federal vehicles, but
Alternative Fuel is 5.3% of total Federal fuel use.
FY 2013 Total Fuel Use (GGE)
7
Consumer Behavior change in the Federal Fleet
Vehicles Infrastructure
Behavior
• NREL LDRD: $400k over 3 yrs
• Applied behavioral research to increase E85 use in Fed fleet
Missed Opportunity: FFV purchases Gas w/in 5 mi. of E85
Made Opportunity: E85 purchase
Total Opportunities: Missed + Made
Non-Opportunities: FFV purchases Gas further than 5 miles from E85
8
Empirical Analysis of Refueling Patterns
State level analysis of missed opportunity trends
• 4 years, 12 Agencies, 4.4M transactions, 68k vehicles
Linear regression of Missed Opportunity rates. They will be lower:
• Over time as infrastructure availability increases
• The closer the vehicle is to it’s garage
• When there is an E85 station w/in 5 miles of garage
• When the vehicles have access to E85 more frequently
• In the Midwest
• In the summer months
• In “established” markets
9
Regional & E85 Market Designations
Market Scores = Gas Vehicles/Gas Stations : FFV’s/E85 Station
Established > 0.75 Emerging 0.25 – 0.75 Developing 0.10 – 0.25 Nascent < 0.10
10
Empirical Analysis of Refueling Patterns
No correlation with Missed Opportunities
• Operational variables: GGE/Vehicle, distance from garage
• Seasonal variations are not significant
Positive correlation with Missed Opportunities
• E85 infrastructure growth rates
Significant negative correlation with Missed Opportunities
• Over time: rates are lowest in 2011 & 2012
• When there is an E85 station w/in 5 miles of garage
• When the vehicles have access to E85 more frequently
• In the Midwest & “established” markets
11
Empirical Analysis of Refueling Patterns
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800%
Mis
sed
Op
po
rtu
nit
y R
ate
E85 Station Growth Rate
Missed Opportunities vs. E85 Growth Rate Major Findings
• E85 Growth Rate is positively correlated with Missed Opportunities
• There is a time lag between station growth and actual use
• If you build it… they might come eventually
12
Empirical Analysis of Refueling Patterns
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Mis
sed
Op
po
rtu
nit
y R
ate
Opportunities to Purchase E85 (% of all FFV fuel purchases)
Missed Opportunities vs. Total Opportunities
South West Midwest Northeast
Major Findings
• Frequency of proximity matters
• EPAct § 701 works, but has unintended consequences
• The Midwest dominates
• Newer markets show potential
• Strength of the linear models = ~35%
ND
IA WI
MN
CO
SC
KY
ID
13
Survey Description
• Anonymous online survey, 35 questions in length
• Survey distributed via FEMP contact database
o FEDFLEET & regional workshop attendees, GSA reports carryout contacts
o 6/11/12 and 7/10/12 delivered to 10,847 contacts
• 3,314 respondents (31% response rate)
• 48 federal organizations
• Broad geographic distribution
• Top five responding agencies:
o Department of Agriculture
o Department of Transportation
o Department of Homeland Security
o Office of Personnel Management
o Department of the Interior
14
Who is the “Federal Fleet Driver”?
1,028 31%
2,286 69%
69% Male - 31% Female 70% have been driving a federal vehicle for more than 5 years
990
729
744
590
236
25
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
1-5
6-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
> 40
How many years have you been driving a federal vehicle?
21-30 7%
31-40 18%
41-50 27%
51-60 34%
61-70 11%
61% are 41-60 yrs old
15
Not Sure 27%
No 32%
Yes 41%
Driver Knowledge
Can your primary federal vehicle use E85 fuel?
1/4 don’t know if they’re driving an FFV
16
Survey – Specific Findings
What is the likelihood that you would drive the following additional distances/time increments out of your way to purchase E85? • 0% (I would never…) to 100% (I would always…)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
< 1 mi / < 5 mins
1-3 mi / 5-10 mins
3-5 mi / 10-15 mins
> 5 mi / > 15 mins
TIME
DISTANCE
17
Survey – Specific Findings
Purchasers
(P)
What (statistically significant) variables contribute to a respondents likelihood to be a “Purchaser”?
1. Receive feedback from Mgmt – P (28%) SP (20%) NP (17%)
2. Aware of requirement to use Alt Fuel – P (76%) SP (60%) NP (42%)
3. Received training on requirements – P (42%) SP (30%) NP (26%)
4. Info on Availability of Fuel – P (59%) SP (44%) NP (30%)
18
Changing Driver Behavior - Feedback
https://federalfleets.energy.gov/FleetDASH/
Sample Department Leased Fleet Fuel Use
FleetDASH tracks fuel consumption throughout the year.
19
Changing Driver Behavior - Feedback
• Automated monthly performance feedback
• Positive vs. Negative
• Peer to peer vs. Individual comparisons
• Monitor the impact on refueling behavior, and adapt
20
Changing Driver Behavior - Training
• 15-minute, on-demand training
• EPAct 2005 § 701 requirement to use alternative fuel
• How to identify dual-fuel vehicles
• How to locate alternative fuel stations
21
Changing Driver Behavior – Find E85
afdc.energy.gov/locator/stations
22
Changing Driver Behavior – Next Steps
• NPS Driver Behavior, Education & Training Program
• Project Description
o Establish baseline fleet performance
o Conduct NPS driver survey
o Develop targeted driver behavior coaching/training
o Measure and monitor the results
• Refine a replicable service in Organizational and Individual Behavior Change
23