Understanding America:

Values-Based Analysis for Political, Economic, Social, &

Cultural FindingsPaul H. Ray, Ph.D.paulhray@aol.com

paul@ culturalcreatives.org

Conventional Population Conventional Population Analysis Uses DemographicsAnalysis Uses Demographics

• We’ve been doing it for 50-80 years

• Almost a tradition in Gov’t and Biz

• It’s cheap, BUT an ineffective predictor

• Values are much better predictors to real behaviors: consumers, citizens, voters

• Would demographics say who supports terrorists? - Hardly

Look at Values & See 50 years of Cultural Change, Worldwide

Floods of new information:• Awareness of Western Lifestyles• Planetary Ecology Fears• Jobs, Health and Education Concerns• Organic food vs Environmental-poisons• Spiritual traditions from everywhere• Nuclear, infotech, biotech, nanotech - all

go from promise to threats

Values Reflect 50 years of Values Reflect 50 years of Cultural Change WorldwideCultural Change Worldwide

• Nuclear Fears Worldwide

• Global Awareness of Whole Populations

• Visibility of Western Lifestyles Worldwide

• Willingness to move beyond Welfare State

• Environmental Awareness Goes Ecological

• Worldwide Peace Movement Emerges

• Women’s Roles/Views Emerge Worldwide

Beyond Modern Vs. Traditional:A New Third Culture in the West

• Women’s values and concerns going public

for the first time in recorded history

• The role of the new social movements and

consciousness movements in educating the

Western world over the past 40 years

Cultural Change from New Social Movements

• Two effects of cultural changes that grew

out of 40 years of new social movements.

1.The Cultural Side of the movements gave

rise to 50 million Cultural Creatives.

2.The Political Side has taken us “beyond

Left and Right” to 2-dimensional politics.

1. Massive Research Evidence about the Cultural Creatives: Carriers of cultural change

• 14 years of Values-and-Lifestyles Survey Research & Focus Groups– Over 150,000 people surveyed: national

& regional, many topics

– 500+ values-related focus groups

• 60 in-depth interviews, 4-6 hours each

The Cultural Creatives-Who They Are

• They’re literally creating a whole new culture for our time

• 26% of adults in United States

– 50 million people

• 30-35% of adults in Western Europe

– 80-90 million people

•• Secular, materialistSecular, materialist

•• The big cityThe big city

•• Hip, up to dateHip, up to date

•• Style & efficiencyStyle & efficiency

•• Cary GrantCary Grant

•• Lauren BacallLauren Bacall

50%TRADITIONALS50%TRADITIONALS

•• Conservative, piousConservative, pious

•• Small town, countrySmall town, country

•• Square, out of dateSquare, out of date

•• Character, reliabilityCharacter, reliability

•• Jimmy StewartJimmy Stewart

•• June AllysonJune Allyson

1. The Culture Wars 50 Years Ago50% MODERNS50% MODERNS

1. There are 3 Subcultures Today• TraditionalsTraditionals 24.5%24.5%• Moderns Moderns 49.4%49.4%• Cultural CreativesCultural Creatives 26.1%26.1%

Total:Total: 100%100%Traditionals declined from Traditionals declined from half to under a quarter, but half to under a quarter, but Moderns didn’t win...Moderns didn’t win...

ValueGraphics• A Subculture has different:

—Values = “Most important life priorities”

—Worldview = “How Life works. What’s real. What Life is all about”

—Lifestyle = “What to buy. How to live”

1. Cultural Creatives Values

• Ecology, beyond environmentalism

• Planetary awareness

• Social Responsibility & Concerns

• Authenticity

• Relationships, Helping others

• Personal Growth, Spirituality

• Feminism

They Reject Materialism,

Status-oriented Consumption,

Most Ads,Most TV,

Big MediaReligious Right

Demographics Are Almost Useless—Values Go Deeper

• CCs a bit more upscale, overall — wide range of income, education, occupation

• Close to national averages on age, race, ethnicity, region

• BUT 60% women overall

• Core group (opinion leaders) are 67% women, or 2:1 women:men

:-) “Where are all the good men?”

ORIGINS: All the new social movements of past 40 years

• Civil Rights, Social Justice

• Peace (1960 to 1990, and Now, again)

• Women’s (to Eco-Fem, Fem-Spiritual)

• Environmental, becoming Ecology

• Planetary: Anti-globalization, Hunger

• Personal growth & New spirituality

• Alternative Health Care

• Organic Food & ‘Natural Everything’

Converging Movements• 40-80% Overlap in Broad Constituencies

of any pair of social movements

• A typical Cultural Creative identifies with positions of half a dozen movements

• All movements now share the same values and worldview = the Cultural Creatives

• All reframe the issues in the same ways.

• Local cooperation of activists

• National organizations fail to cooperate

2. New Social Movements that generated Cultural Creatives alsogenerated New Political Demand

• Anti-Globalization, and now, Anti-War• Pro-Ecology—Beyond Environmentalism• Ecology over Economy/Limits to Growth• Alternative Health Care• Feminism and Women’s Perspectives• Social Justice and Minority Rights• Organic Food and Natural ‘Everything’• Want to Be Activist—Socially Contribute• Anti-Corporate Sentiment

Swing voters

Fig. 1 OUR CONVENTIONAL LEFT vs. RIGHT IMAGE OF POLITICS*

LEFT RIGHT

INTERESTED MIDDLE

ALIENATED & UNINTERESTD

LEFT LIBERAL

BUSINESS CONSERVATIVES

SOCIAL CONSERVATIVES

CENTERR

*Areas of figure are proportional to national percentages.

Statistics 101... on Right vs Left

When only the tails of a distribution are meaningful, but the mean of that distribution isn’t meaningful...

… then either you’ve got a bad measure,

… or you need additional measures to explain what’s going on in the middle.

A good second dimension should be orthogonal (at a right angle) to the first

Conventional Political Wisdom says: These survey variables should be one Left-Right dimension. They aren’t.

• Self-identify as Liberal or Conservative • Religious Right: pro-con• Civil Liberties: pro-con• Self-identify as Traditional, or not• Ecological Sustainability: pro-con• National Health Care: pro-con• Big Business: pro-con• Limits to Growth: pro-con• Feminism: pro-con

In fact, the data shows two dimensions:1.Liberals vs. Social Conservatives• Self-identify as Liberal-Conservative • Religious Right: pro-con• Civil Liberties: pro-con• Self-identify as Traditional, or not2. ‘In Front’ vs. Business Conservatives• Ecological Sustainability: pro-con• National Health Care: pro-con• Big Business: pro-con• Limits to Growth: pro-con• Feminism: pro-con

In Front On Big, Emerging Issues:Cultural Creatives, New Progressives(Calling All New Social Movements!)Wisdom Culture ParadigmEst. 45% of Voters

The New Political Compass

Longing for the Old WaysCultural Conservatives

Radical & Religious RightSouthern Politics Paradigm

Est. 21% of Voters

Standing Pat on the LeftModernist LiberalsConventional Left PoliticsBig Government ParadigmEst. 15% of Voters

Profits Over Planet and PeopleBusiness Conservatives

Economic Growth/GlobalizationBig Business Paradigm

Est. 19% of Voters

20%Alienated12%

14%

19%

36%

Political North: Demographics• 36%=70 Million Adult Americans

• 56% Female

• More in Northeast, Upper Midwest, Pacific Coast, fewest in Mountain States

• 15% people of color

• 9% Hispanic

• Same as National distribution on Age, Income, Education, Occupation

Political North:Basic Political Facts

Among Likely Voters, Political North is:• 45% = 55 Million Voters• 56% of all Swing Voters

Swing Voters = 53% of Political North• 17% Liberal vs. 33% Conservative

39% ‘Center’, 10% Beyond Left-Right• 37% Democrat vs. 29% Republican

27% Independent, 3% 3rd Party

Political North:Basic Political Facts

• In the whole adult population, North is:• 18% Liberal* vs. 33% Conservative• 39% Center, 11% Beyond Left-Right• 39% Democrat vs. 28%Republican• 27% Independent, 3% 3rd Party• Compare to Voters: They’re the same.

* Both Left and Right can call North issues Left, but most don’t identify with the Left

Political North: Basic FactsA low marginal cost to mobilizing them:

• Volunteer more often and more hours,

• Give more money to good causes,

• Want to get actively involved

• Involved in more New Social Movement constituencies, and believe their worldviews

• Care more about changing the culture

• Want politics to deal more with the real emerging problems threatening our future

Unify and MobilizeThe Religious Right

Anger vs Secular LiberalsAbortion as Unifier

Hate radio

So

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Lib

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Map Of New Political CompassCore Strategies The Republican Party

Already Uses to Develop its Main Constituencies

5

Milk Big Business forBigger Campaign Money

in Exchange forCrony Capitalism

Dishearten andDemonize Liberals

Split, Neutralize & DisheartenWith Disinformation

Ultra-Right Media Campaigns

Lower Campaign TurnoutsGrow Dems' Non Voters

By Skunk Effect ofNegative Campaigns

New Progressives

Business Conservatives

1

5

2 4

3

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Map Of New Political CompassCore Strategies for the Democratic PartyNeeded to Develop its Main Constituencies

Use GOTVReduce Dem Nonvoters

Distance Democratic Partyand Elected Officials from

Big Money Politics.Make it easier to attack Biz Cons

and impress Political North

Use Political North's Moral PoliticsFrame to

Neutralize Religious RightDishearten Not Demonize

Improve Language,Style, Messaging,Psychological and Symbolic StancesAppeal to Women

Create Big Tent StrategyUnify and Mobilize with:• New Issues Strategies• New Messaging• New Retail Outreach• New Candidates

Business Conservatives

New Progressives

1

5

2 4

3

Exploit Wedge Issues• Property vs Envt• Anti-Women• Anti-Gay

Map Of New Political CompassEdge Strategies the Republican Party

Already Seems to be Using with Success

Hold TogetherNixon's Big TentSouthern Strategy &Prevent Dems WedgeBetween BizCons & SocCons

ExploitWedge Issues• Play Race Card• Envt vs Social Justice

6

Recruit to SocConsDemonize New Culture

8

Buy Off & Corrupt ProgressivePoliticians and Businesses

7

9

Lib

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New Progressives

Business Conservatives

So

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NonVoters

10

Hold Together to Create Big TentPrevent Republican Wedge

• Apollo Alliance

So

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Map Of New Political CompassEdge Strategies for the Democratic Party

Needed for Swing Voters and Marginal Constituencies

8

Sew Back TogetherClinton's Big TentPrevent Repub Wedge

NonVoters

Expand Role of Green Biz and CSR Movements.Draw execs to North from edge of BizCon Politics

6

Draw Recruits toPolitical North's NewMoral Politics Frame

Exploit Wedge IssuesBiz Cons vs Soc ConsWall St. vs Main St.

10

Business Conservatives

New Progressives

7

9

A Change in Political Culture• Identify less with either Left or Right• Planetary more than nationalistic interests• Ecological sustainability, not sentimental

environmentalism, resource management• Feminism rather than heroic models• Personal growth over personal ambition• Condemn corrupt, globalizing mega-

corporations more than Religious Right• Get big corporate money out of politics • Protect a positive future for our children

Political North’s Voters Show Unmet Political Demand

• Their most important issues are all ‘outside the box’ to Washington politics

• None of their big issues were in the last 4 national election campaigns

• This is the equivalent of political market failure. Politics abhores a vacuum even more than Nature does.

• Lincoln’s first political party was Whig. Lincoln’s first political party was Whig. Remember the Whigs? Parties can dieRemember the Whigs? Parties can die.

Political North’s Voters Show Unmet Political Demand

Unimpressed with the old pols:• Inauthentic, psychologically primitive:

Too much blaming, shaming, posturing, hatred/conflict-driven, violence imagery

• Bereft of innovative, or win-win ideas

• Macho, not women-friendly, emotionally undeveloped, spiritually empty

• Nationalistic rather than planet-oriented

Political North’s Voters Show Unmet Political Demand

Don’t like the political meetings:• Crummy group dynamics, factionalism

• Vicious infighting and power struggles

• Doctrinaire positions and rhetoric

• Self-justifying and psychologically naïve

• Money-driven strategies

• Professionals only; poor use of volunteers

Political North’s Voters Show Unmet Political Demand

Don’t like the political literature:• No more impressed with Left than Right

• Doctrinaire positions and rhetoric

• Projecting one’s evil onto the other side

• Self-justifying and denigrating others

• Old rhetoric no one believes any more

• Not interested in rebuilding community

National Education Issues

Business Conservatives

New Progressives

Liberal Left SocialConservatives

"America needs a single set of educational standards,and national funding of education"

National Education Issues offer Democrats three opportunities:1) Drive a wedge in the Political Southeast between positive Social Conservatives and negative Business Conservatives2) Repair the split in the Political Northeast between New Progressives and positive Social Conservatives3) Strengthen the alliance in the Political Northwest between positive Liberals and the New Progressives

1

3 2

National Health Care Issues

Business Conservatives

"America needs a health insurance plan that covers everyone,rich or poor, for all illnesses"

National Education Issues offer Democrats three opportunities:1) Drive a wedge in the Political Southeast between positive Social Conservatives and negative Business Conservatives2) Repair the split in the Political Northeast between New Progressives and positive Social Conservatives3) Strengthen the alliance in the Political Northwest between positive Liberals and the New Progressives

New Progressives

Liberal Left SocialConservatives

1

3 2

Global Ecology Issues

Business Conservatives

New Progressives

SocialConservatives

Liberal Left

"I'm concerned about problems of the global environment: global warming,destruction of the rainforests, destruction of species, loss of the ozone layer"

Global Ecology Issues offer Democrats three opportunities:1) Drive a wedge in the Political Southeast between greener Social Conservatives and negative Business Conservatives2) Repair the split in the Political Northeast between New Progressives and greener Social Conservatives3) Strengthen the alliance in the Political Northwest between greener Liberals and the New Progressives

1

3 2

Unmet Political Demand: The campaign process doesn’t work

• No real way for citizens to get involved in professionally run campaigns

• Campaign seasons go on too long —too tedious to pay continuing attention

• Negativity of news coverage cuts turnout —personalities and horse races —fail to cover issues important to voters

• Big-money-power corrupts all politics• People-power is nowhere

Political North’s Big Hot Button:

80% fear their children or grandchildren will grow up in a worse world than they did. Deep anxiety over the next 20 years.

• Don’t believe politicians will address the key

issues of our longer term future.

• Do believe that Big Business is usually the main

problem— AND that we’re all implicated.

• See the Left’s favorite solutions as ineffectual,

and the Right’s as harmful.

What they want: Big Themes• Real innovations for ecological sustainability

• Better education for all the children

• Better health care; cleaner food, air and water; less risk of environmental illness

• Get big corporate money out of politics

• Good hard news political coverage by the media

• More psychological maturity in politics

• Beyond moralizing and economic payoffs, to serve their new social and lifestyle concerns

• New rules of the game, and better players

Battleground StatesSwing Voters

• New Progressives are 58% of Swing Voters in the 18 Battleground States:Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, Wisconsin

* Underlined = 10+ Electoral votes

Similar Kinds of Results from European Values Surveys

See Paul Abramson & Ronald Inglehart,Values Change in Global Perspective, University of Michigan Press, 1995Ronald Inglehart, Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural, Economic & Political Change in 43 Societies, Princeton Univ. Press, 1997

Paul H. Ray, Ph.D.

Co-Chairman,

Forum for a Wise Civilization,

The Global Academy

101 Bishop Ct.

Novato, CA 94945

415-897-2894

paul@culturalcreatives.org

paulhray@aol.com