Unchecked Population Unchecked Population GrowthGrowth

Global Problem PresentationGlobal Problem Presentation

Emily DixonEmily Dixon

University Scholars 203University Scholars 203

January 24, 2001January 24, 2001

Population Growth, Population Growth, Globalization, and Human Globalization, and Human

DevelopmentDevelopment Rapid Population Growth Rapid Population Growth

=> Shrinking Space => Shrinking Space

=> Greater Linking and => Greater Linking and Interdependence of the Interdependence of the

World’s People World’s People Human Development depends on natural Human Development depends on natural

resources and the environment which are resources and the environment which are depleted by unchecked population growthdepleted by unchecked population growth

Unbalanced global integration has ties to Unbalanced global integration has ties to population growthpopulation growth

Population Growth Population Growth StatisticsStatistics

Recent population growth is Recent population growth is unprecedented in history.unprecedented in history.

It took one million years to It took one million years to produce the first one billion people produce the first one billion people but only ten years to add the next but only ten years to add the next billion people to 1994’s world billion people to 1994’s world population of 5.5 billion.population of 5.5 billion.

Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries Most growth in developing countries; population Most growth in developing countries; population

doubled between 1960 and 1990doubled between 1960 and 1990 Developing countries’ overall population growth Developing countries’ overall population growth

expected to decrease from 2.3% per year (1960-expected to decrease from 2.3% per year (1960-1988) to 2.0% (1988-2000)1988) to 2.0% (1988-2000)

Exceptions:Exceptions:– Africa: 3.1% per year (1988-2000)Africa: 3.1% per year (1988-2000)– Least developed countries: 2.8%Least developed countries: 2.8%

Developing countries’ share of world population: Developing countries’ share of world population: – 77% in 199077% in 1990– projected at 80% by 2000 and 84% by 2025projected at 80% by 2000 and 84% by 2025

Developing vs. IndustrialDeveloping vs. IndustrialNationsNations

Industrial nations’ share of world Industrial nations’ share of world population expected to shrink from 31% population expected to shrink from 31% in 1960 to 16% in 2025in 1960 to 16% in 2025

New births as of 1990:New births as of 1990:– 87% in third world87% in third world– 13% in industrial nations13% in industrial nations

Developing countries expected 2.0% Developing countries expected 2.0% population growth from 1988 to 2000 population growth from 1988 to 2000 while industrial nations expected 0.5%while industrial nations expected 0.5%

Specific ProblemsSpecific Problems

Environmental degradationEnvironmental degradation

PovertyPoverty

MigrationMigration– from rural to urban areasfrom rural to urban areas– from South to Northfrom South to North

Environmental Environmental DegradationDegradation

Rapid population growth puts the planet Rapid population growth puts the planet under intolerable strainunder intolerable strain

Adds to the enormous pressures on Adds to the enormous pressures on diminishing non-renewable resourcesdiminishing non-renewable resources

Causes people to move into areas prone to Causes people to move into areas prone to cyclones, earthquakes, and floods -- areas cyclones, earthquakes, and floods -- areas always considered dangerous and always considered dangerous and previously uninhabitedpreviously uninhabited– Unchecked population growth is therefore a Unchecked population growth is therefore a

threat to human securitythreat to human security

Population-Environment-Population-Environment-Poverty NexusPoverty Nexus

In developing world, pressures on In developing world, pressures on environment intensify each day as environment intensify each day as population growspopulation grows

Global population estimated by the Global population estimated by the UN to be 9.5 billion by 2050, 8 billion UN to be 9.5 billion by 2050, 8 billion in developing countriesin developing countries– population of Africa=3 times Europe and population of Africa=3 times Europe and

that of China=4 times North Americathat of China=4 times North America

Population-Environment-Population-Environment-Poverty Nexus (Continued)Poverty Nexus (Continued)

To feed 9.5 billion people adequately requires 3 To feed 9.5 billion people adequately requires 3 times the basic calories consumed today, times the basic calories consumed today, roughly 10 billion tons of grain per yearroughly 10 billion tons of grain per year

To produce that much, have to farm all the To produce that much, have to farm all the world’s current crop land at 3 times the current world’s current crop land at 3 times the current global average productivityglobal average productivity

Rapidly growing population leads to Rapidly growing population leads to environmentally damaging adaptations: environmentally damaging adaptations: overgrazing, shortened fallow periods, and overgrazing, shortened fallow periods, and extension of cultivation into range lands and extension of cultivation into range lands and slopesslopes

The Vicious CycleThe Vicious Cycle

Environmental degradation could Environmental degradation could produce incentives to have larger produce incentives to have larger familiesfamilies– Sub-Saharan Africa saw population growth Sub-Saharan Africa saw population growth

outstrip growth in agricultural production; 2% outstrip growth in agricultural production; 2% per year(1965-80), 1.8% (1980’s)per year(1965-80), 1.8% (1980’s)

Poorer families may have more children Poorer families may have more children because they need the labor to collect because they need the labor to collect ever more distant supplies of fuel or ever more distant supplies of fuel or waterwater

PovertyPoverty Population growth usually fastest when poverty is Population growth usually fastest when poverty is

greatest and health and education services are greatest and health and education services are weakest -- in least developed countries and rural weakest -- in least developed countries and rural areasareas

Can lead to slowed economic progress and Can lead to slowed economic progress and outpace some of development’s successesoutpace some of development’s successes

Absolute number of poor rose by one fifth Absolute number of poor rose by one fifth between 1970 and 1985, though the percent of between 1970 and 1985, though the percent of the total population decreasedthe total population decreased

Widening gap between North and South per Widening gap between North and South per capita incomecapita income

Migration: Migration: From Rural to Urban AreasFrom Rural to Urban Areas

UN projects the world’s rural population will reach UN projects the world’s rural population will reach upper limit by 2015upper limit by 2015– All future population growth beyond this point will be All future population growth beyond this point will be

concentrated in urban areasconcentrated in urban areas– So by 2015, one half of the developing world’s people will So by 2015, one half of the developing world’s people will

live in urban areaslive in urban areas Urban areas absorb excess rural labor from natural Urban areas absorb excess rural labor from natural

population growth and mechanized agriculturepopulation growth and mechanized agriculture Rapid population growth and uncontrolled industrial Rapid population growth and uncontrolled industrial

development degrade urban environment, straining development degrade urban environment, straining natural resource base and undermining sustainable natural resource base and undermining sustainable and equitable developmentand equitable development

Resulting UrbanizationResulting Urbanization

Urban dwellers from 1950 to 1987 quadrupled Urban dwellers from 1950 to 1987 quadrupled from 285 million to one and a quarter billionfrom 285 million to one and a quarter billion– As of 1990, projected to reach 2 billion by 2000As of 1990, projected to reach 2 billion by 2000– 8 of the world’s 10 mega-cities (13 million people or 8 of the world’s 10 mega-cities (13 million people or

more) are in the third worldmore) are in the third world Rise of squatter settlements in developing Rise of squatter settlements in developing

countriescountries– favelasfavelas in Brazil, in Brazil, juggias juggias in India, barrios in Venezuela– comprise 50% of total housing stock in Caracas and

Dar-es-Salaam, 40% in Karachi, and 25-30% in Tunis

Migration: Migration: From South to NorthFrom South to North

35 million people have migrated 35 million people have migrated from the South to the North in the from the South to the North in the last 30 yearslast 30 years

One million additional people join One million additional people join them each yearthem each year

Illegal migrants are estimated at Illegal migrants are estimated at around 15 to 30 millionaround 15 to 30 million

Controversial QuestionsControversial Questions What are some possible solutions?What are some possible solutions? Where does your right to have children end?Where does your right to have children end?

– Does it end?Does it end? Does a government have the right to tell you you can Does a government have the right to tell you you can

only have one child?only have one child?– Are you being an irresponsible global citizen if you have two?Are you being an irresponsible global citizen if you have two?

How are reproductive rights and the environment How are reproductive rights and the environment related?related?– Is part of protecting the environment suppressing population?Is part of protecting the environment suppressing population?– Which is more important?Which is more important?– Is there necessarily a trade off?Is there necessarily a trade off?

More QuestionsMore Questions

Should every country abide by the same Should every country abide by the same reproductive mandates?reproductive mandates?– Compare the US to ChinaCompare the US to China

The argument for abortion is an argument The argument for abortion is an argument for choice, the sovereignty of the individual for choice, the sovereignty of the individual to decide what happens to her own body.to decide what happens to her own body.– Does the argument go the other way: women Does the argument go the other way: women

have the right to chose to have many children have the right to chose to have many children in the face of these population problems?in the face of these population problems?