UNAA_ED's Presentation on the NDP

8/3/2019 UNAA_ED's Presentation on the NDP

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NATIONAL PLANNING

AUTHORITYPRESENTATION ON UGANDAS NATIONALDEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDP) 2010/11-2014/15

By

LONGINO TISASIRANA

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, NPA


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OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION

Introduction

Why NDP?

The NDP formulation process

The NDP conceptual framework

The NDP synopsis NDP themes and objective

NDP Thrust Binding Constraints

Priority Investment areas

National Core Projects (flagships)


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INTRODUCTION

The NDP was launched on 19th April, 2010 by H.E ThePresident

The NDP is a costed plan that provides strategic directionfor Ugandas development for the five years spanningfrom FY 2010/11-2014/15

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INTRODUCTION CONTS...

The plan stipulates the medium termdevelopment goals and strategic objectives

It also identifies priority interventions includingpriority investment programmes and projects forstrategic intervention by: Government

Private sector

Civil society

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Why NDP?

1. Proliferation of several development strategiessuch as PMA, NAADS, PFA, PRDP, electionManifestos during the later years of the PEAP.

Thus the need to integrate emerging strategiesinto a single policy framework

The NDP will be Ugandas only strategicframework guiding development during the

period of its implementation (FY 2010/11-2014/15)

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Why NDP?

2. The high growth rates recorded during PEAPperiod did not result into significant socio-economic transformation.

A number of structural challenges persistedwhich include:

Dominance of primary products over industrial andmanufactured products

Slow growth than desirable in agricultural and industrialsectors

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Primary Products

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Selling primary products5/1/2012 8


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Why NDP?

New sectors not absorbing rapidly growing labour force

Capital market not effectively intermediating capital (High cost offinance)

Slow accumulation of economic infrastructure

The NDP would therefore accelerate socio-economictransformation.

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Why NDP?

3. New developments in the global, regional and nationaleconomies raised a number of challenges andopportunities. They include;

The Global economic crisis (2007-2009)

Regional integration ( EAC CU, CM and politicalfederation)

At the national scene, return to multiparty system, oildiscovery and deepening of decentralisation etc.

The plan offers a concerted, holistic comprehensive andsystematic approach to global, regional and nationalchallenges and opportunities.

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Why NDP?

The Cabinet in 2007 adopted the overallplanning framework linking the short termpriorities to medium and long term goals andobjectives.

The framework provides for the following: 30 year National Vision 10 year Outline Perspective Plan 5 year NDP 2 year mid term review

Annual plans & budgetsThe NDP is a medium term strategy thatoperationalises the national visioning framework.

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NDP formulation process

Formed Core Technical Committee (CTC)

Composed of MFPED, OPM and NPA

Each sector formed a task force

Composed of private sector, Government and CSO to write sectorpapers

Adhoc patriotic team to discuss issues in NDP


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NDP process cont

Held over 40 sector consultations discussingplans for each sector

Separate private sector consultation (PSFU,

UMA) Separate Civil society organization consultations

Consulting and collection of data from LGs

Intense discussion between NPA, MFPED andBOU especially over the macro economicframework


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NDP process cont

Consultative meeting of PSs and Ministers

2 Consultative meetings of the MPs

Consultations with H.E the President

Submitted NDP to Cabinet and approved Laid the NDP on the table in Parliament and approved


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NDP Conceptual framework

Macro-economic modeling to determine the appropriatelevel of investment

Identified the most binding constraints

Linked the various strategies to unlock the constraints totheir respective sectors

Egg concept to harness synergies

Determined the MTEF


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Egg conceptual framework


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NDP SYNOPOSIS

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Arrangement of the Plan

The outlay of the plan is such that:

i. Part 1: Overview Background& context, NDPThrust, situational analysis (macroeconomic

analysis &binding constraints),ii. Part 2: Strategic direction & NDP strategy

(Vision, NDP Theme & objectives, principlesand Strategy)

iii. Part 3: Sectoral performance sector by sectorsituational analysis, objective and strategy

iv. Part 4: M&E and Implementation Strategy

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PART I SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

Notable progress recorded in the past 25 years!!!

1987-1996 GDP growth at 6.5%, inflation from200% to 7.15

1997/98 to 2000/01 GDP growth rate of 7.2%2000/01 to 2003/04 GDP grew at 6.8%

2004/5 to 2007/08 GDP grew at 8%

However, the progress is slow compared toemerging industrialised nations that we strive tobenchmark

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Comparison of income Per Capita of Uganda against Korea, Kenya, Ghana and Malaysia

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Years

IncomeperCapit

a(US$)

Uganda Kenya Ghana

Malaysia Korea

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Part II -Strategic Direction & NDP Strategy

The vision of the country is

A Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant toModern and Prosperous Country Within 30 Years

This is to be manifested in:

Stable, peaceful, independent and sovereign state

A strong state in federated East Africa with an effectiveAfrican Common Market and a strong African DefenseMechanism

Democratic and law abiding citizens

Knowledge based, informed and skilled citizenry changing from predominantly peasant society to middle

income country by 2017.

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A pictorial impression of a desiredUganda

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Visual impression of the desiredrural Uganda

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NDP Theme & Objectives

NDP ThemeGrowth, Employment and Socio-Economic Transformation for

Prosperity

NDP Objectives

1.Increasing household incomes and promotingequity

2.Enhancing the availability of gainful employment3.Enhancing human capital development

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NDP Objectives cont...

4. Improving stock and quality of economicinfrastructure

5. Increasing access to quality social services

6. Promoting Science, Technology and Innovation(STI) and Information CommunicationTechnology (ICT)

7. Strengthening good governance, defense and

security8. Promoting a sustainable population and

harness natural resources

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Thrust of Plan Accelerate socio-economic transformation implies

Raising per capita incomes from USD 506 to USD 900 by 2015

Proportion of people below poverty line from 28% to 24.5 % by2015

Expand GDP from 41.397tn to 72.094tn

Improving labor force distribution in line with sectoral GDPcomposition

Raising countrys human development indicators from 0.514 to

0.572

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Thrust of Plan cont Improve Country's competitiveness index to 4.2 score

Share of manufactured products to total export toincrease to 30%

Share of manufactured products to total GDP to increaseto 25%

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Most Binding Constraints1. Inadequate stock and quality of physical

Infrastructure (Energy, Transport)

Only 11 % of the population has access to electricitycompared to 15% in Kenya & 98% in Malaysia

Only 4% of total road network are paved yet itcarries 96.4% of total cargo

Only 3.5% of cargo is carried by rail compared to

over 90% in India & China. (triples the cost of doingbusiness)

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Obsolete locomotives and tracks

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Inadequate electricity?

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Most Binding Constraints

2. Weak Public Sector Management and Administration

Poor accountability

Poor coordination

Duplication of mandates

Inadequate policy and regulatory framework

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Most Binding Constraints

3. Inadequate financing and financial services

4. Inadequate quantity and quality of humanresources

5. Gender issues, mindset, cultural practicesattention and perceptions

6. Low application of Science and technology,

Innovations7. Inadequate Supply of Critical Production Inputs

3

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Strategies to Unlock Most Binding

Constraints

Increasing stock and improving quality of publicphysical infrastructure (Energy, Transport, oil andgas, Water, ICT, etc)

Increasing the Quantity and enhancing Quality of the

Human Resource (Skills, health, education) Improving Public Sector Management and

Administration Increasing Public Sector Financing and Improving

Financial Services

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Strategies to Unlock Most BindingConstraints (Contd)

Transformation of Attitudes, Mind-set, Culturalpractices, Perceptions and Promotion of GenderEquality

Promoting Science, Technology and Innovation (STI)

Facilitating Availability and Access to CriticalProduction Inputs

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Investment Priorities

Increasing stock and improving quality of infrastructure(Energy, Transport, Oil and Gas)

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Working on Infrastructure

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Investment Priorities

Human resource Development (Health, Education, Skills)

Promoting Science and Technology and innovation

Facilitating availability and access to critical Productioninputs

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National Core Projects

Construction of Karuma, Ayago and Isimba HEP andtransmission infrastructure

Construction of standard rail gauge and rehabilitationof existing railway

Development of greater metropolitan Kampala andimplement rapid transport systems

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National Core Projects (Contd)

Development of Oil and gasrefinery,

Construction of oil and gaspipeline

Development of ICT park

National skills programme

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National Core Projects (Contd)

Development of S &T Incubationcenters

Construction and development offive large irrigation systems

Development of fertilizer industry

Development of iron-ore ingot(cement industry)

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Macro-Economic Strategy

Consolidate gains made and put in placenecessary condition to ensure furthereconomic growth

Maintaining Macro-economic stability and

acceleration of economic growth and povertyreduction

Avoidance of unsustainable public sectorindebtedness and increased donor

dependencyIncreased mobilization of domestic resources

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Key Macro and Financial TargetsPARAMETER 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

GDP Real

growth6.6% 7% 7.2% 7.4% 7.5%

Revenue 13.1% 13.6% 14.1% 14.6% 15.1%

Net Aid (%

GDP)

5.4% 5.6% 5.1% 4.6% 3.7%

Domestic

Borrowing

0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%

Fiscal deficit(%

of GDP)6.1% 6.2% 5.7% 5.2% 4.3%

Government

expenditure( %

of GDP)

19.2% 19.8% 19.8% 19.8% 19.4%

GDP (trillion)41.397 46.934 53.904 62.227 72.094

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Other Key Strategies

Outwardoriented policies by encouragingFDI and exports with high added valuePlanned-market-economy approach (quasi) (Private

Sector engine of growth, PPP will be key

Business approach to public sector servicedelivery citezen-centredness

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Sector-based Strategies

Following a results chain approach, the NDP containssector objectives, strategies and interventions by sector

The presentation follow categorisation of sectors basedon the egg analogy:

Primary growth sectors Complementary sectors

Social services sector

Enabling sectors

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Monitoring and Evaluationframework

Rationalize the M&E functions of OPM, NPA, MDAs andLGs

Unified, integrated, robust and well coordinatedgovernment-wide monitoring and evaluation framework

Provide staff for M&E in MDAs and LGs

Clear reporting mechanisms

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NDP Monitoring & evaluationframework

Progress Reporting

Quarterly Planning Forum

Annual Planning Forum

Mid term Review Evaluation

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PLAN IMPLEMENTATION

Implementation of the NDP is carried out through theexisting institutional arrangements

Building capacity of the relevant institutions at nationaland local government level will be undertaken

Political Commitment and dedicated technicalexpertise

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Implementation Strategy

National Planning and Policy Committee sit to assessNDP implementation

Cabinet Secretariat will be watchdog for ownershipand leadership by Cabinet

Parliament to provide overall oversight to maintainconsensus and participation

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Implementation Strategy (Contd)

OPMcoordination of implementation

PSs and CAOs responsibility for oversight

Changes in institutions, structures and systems ofgovernment

Linkage to MTEF


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PRE-REQUISITE FOR NDPIMPLEMENTATION

Ownership

Implementation is a shared responsibility Political will at the national and LG levels.

ProgressReporting

Sustained annual and quarterly planning&commitment of resources Effective monitoring and evaluation to

support implementation.

ChangeManagement

Behaviour change, patriotism andprogressive reduction of corruption.

Increased private sector capacity.

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Financing Strategy

Overall NDP resource Envelope is 54 trillions

Sources of financing Tax and Non Tax Revenue

Efficiency gains utilizing good efficiency framework

Public Private Partnerships (PPP) Borrowing from Capital Markets

Grants and concessionary Loans

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Challenges

Only 55% of the costs for core projects are government.We expect 45% from Private sector

Overall resource envelope 54 trillion, many unfundedinterventions, the resource envelope should increase to-

65 trillions

Funding gap of about 11 trillions

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Challenges (Contd)

Keeping Fiscal deficit under 5% in line with East AfricaProtocol

Urgent Action on Public Sector Management to increaseabsorption of funds and improve public service delivery

Harmonize sector BFPs to be in line with NDP

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Wayforward

In light of the financing deficit, harmonisation ofNDP and budget has been carried out jointly byNPA, MFPED and OPM together with sectors

Sectors have been able to rank their priorities forFY 2011/12 and link them with relevant votefunctions and vote function outputs

The exercise of localisation sector priorities intheir respective Local Governments is ongoing

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THANK YOU

FOR GOD AND MY COUNTRY

Documents

UNAA_ED's Presentation on the NDP