UK and Global Economic Insights

Dr Andrew SentanceSenior Economic Adviser, PwC

Hospitality and Tourism Summit 2015London, 30th June 2015

PwC

The world economy in the 21st century World GDP, US $ trillion (current prices)

2000 2008 2015 2020*0

20

40

60

80

100

120

33

6375

98

Source: IMF * forecast

PwC

Asia-Pacific now the dominant regionPercentage share of world GDP, current market prices & exchange rates

1980 1990 2000 2010 20150%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

US EU-28 Asia-PacificSource: IMF World Economic Outlook

PwC

Global growth in 2015 – latest PwC forecasts

Source: PwC June 2015 projections

Russia

Germany

UK

US

Brazil

India

Spain

Key

Canada

Mexico

South Africa

Australia

Japan

Italy

Greece

Ireland

France

2.2

2.4

2.8

-0.4

2.5

1.3

3.4

2.31.7

0.4

2.0

7.0

-1.1

2.6

7.0

1.1

-5.0

x.x = GDP growth in 2015

China

PwC

Growth in leading EU economiesAnnual % GDP growth to Q1 2015 in 10 largest EU economies

Italy

Austria

France

Belgium

Germany

Netherlands

UK

Sweden

Spain

Poland

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

Source: Eurostat

PwC

Growth over UK recovery in major business sectors% per annum increase in output, Q3 2009 – Q1 2015

Mining, oil, etcFinance/insurance

Electricity & gasAgriculture

Water & wasteManufacturingOther services

ConstructionHotels & restaurants

Property servicesTransport & commsRetail & wholesale

Prof & business services

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%Source: Office for National Statistics

PwC

UK leads G7 on services export contributionExports of commercial services as % of GDP, 2013

Japan

US

Canada

Italy

Germany

France

UK

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%Source: World Trade Organisation and IMF

PwC

Key issues for UK Hospitality & Tourism

Global and domestic economic stability

UK role in the EU and referendum outcome

Attractiveness of UK as business/investment location

Transport investment, particularly airport capacity

Labour availability and skill shortages

Transition to higher interest rates