BUILDING CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE IN AFRICA’S

AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH PROGRAMMES

RESEARCH APPROACHES IN PROPAGATING CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE IN TANZANIA’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Gratian Bamwenda (PhD)

Economic and Social Reserch Foundation

51 Uporoto Street – Ursino Estates

P.O.Box 31226, Dar Es Salaam – Tanzania

Tel: 255 22 2760 260 Fax: + 255 22 2760 062 Email: esrf@esrf.or.tz Website: www.esrftz.org

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................................... 2

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................................................... 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................... 4

1.0 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................................ 6

2.0 FINDINGS ..................................................................................................................................................... 9

2.1 CHALLENGES ....................................................................................................................................................... 9

2.2 POTENTIAL GENERAL RESPONSES TO THE CHALLENGES ..................................................................................... 10

2.3 RESEARCH RESPONSES ...................................................................................................................................... 11

2.4 OTHER PRIORITY RESEARCH OPTIONS ............................................................................................................... 15

3.0 WAY FORWARD AND CONCLUSION ................................................................................................... 18

4.0 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................................. 21

ANNEX 1.................................................................................................................................................................. 23

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ARI Agricultural Research Institutes, MAFC ASDP Agricultural Sector Development Programme ASDS Agricultural Sector Development Strategy ASLMs Agricultural Sector Lead Ministries EAC East African Community ESRF Economic and Social Research Foundation FANRPAN Food Agriculture Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network GDP Growth Domestic Product IRA Institute of Resources Assessment LGAs Local Government Authorities MAFC Ministry of Agriculture Food Security and Co-operatives MDGs Millennium Development Goals NSGRP National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper RDS Rural Development Strategy REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation TMA Tanzania, Meteorological Agency TDV Tanzania Development Vision URT United Republic of Tanzania

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The aim of this paper is to conduct an assessment of Tanzania’s climate change position and to identify the key players and their research activities in propagating climate change resilience in the agricultural sector. An analysis has been conducted on the core climate change challenges in the agricultural sector and priority responses have been identified. In addition, additional research options have been proposed. It was observed that:

a) Most Tanzanians, especially the agricultural communities and agricultural value chain stakeholders, are well aware of the seriousness of climate change and must position themselves to respond to the challenges that it poses for the agriculture sector in Tanzania. In addition, the stakeholders must strive to understand and address factors that contribute to climate change in their respective subsectors.

b) Adaptation and mitigation in agriculture will require local responses, but effective policy

and technological responses must also reflect global impacts and inter-linkages across the agricultural value chains and supporting sectors and clusters.

c) There is a need to recognize that science, technology and innovation underpin success

and sustainability in all aspects for coping with risks and realizing opportunities associated with climate variability and change and in addressing existing and future impacts of climate induced crises in the agricultural sector. Tanzania should build capabilities and competences to be able to develop, adapt and exploit scientific and technological solutions appropriate to specific needs, otherwise we risk becoming more embroiled in never ending and costly climate change related crisis and emergencies.

It is recommended that future priority responses should be centered on promoting and facilitating the following:

prudent use of resources to prepare to live in changing climatic environments;

devise sound mitigation and sustainable adaptation coping strategies that are sensitive to local environmental, social and cultural diversity and integrating them in strategic economic sectors;

encouraging research that will provide science-based solutions and pro-poor approaches for adaptation of Tanzania’s agricultural systems to climate change and promote country-wide transfer and sharing of information, knowledge, innovations, and technologies;

cooperating with stakeholders in undertaking a strategic transformation of the agricultural systems to adapt them to emerging potential changes and to maintain the momentum for change;

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policy priorities must be implemented including (a) increasing investments in public agricultural R&D, (b) rebuilding and expanding public agricultural research capacity in the agricultural research institutes, parastatals, and academia, (c) harnessing new technologies; (d) encouraging complementarities between public and private/regional agricultural research, helping to mitigate risk, (e) investing in better information, modeling, and forecasts, (f) support competitive and responsive agricultural markets, and (g) encouraging investments that improve spatial market integration; and

ensure appropriate domestic and international collaborative networks are strengthened to share experiences and best practices.

Key words: Climate change impacts, agricultural sector, research approaches

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1.0 BACKGROUND

Tanzania’s climate varies from tropical at the coast to temperate in the highlands. During the last four decades, the country has seen an in increase in extreme climate events including higher temperature, extreme rainfall and droughts (see Table1). A number of studies project an increase in extreme climate events over Tanzania as a result of climate change. For instance, temperatures are predicted to rise between 2–4 ◦C by 2100, warming more during the dry season and in the interior regions of the country while a reduction in precipitation up to 20%, prolonging the dry season and increasing the risk of drought, whereas in Eastern Tanzania and the regions around Lake Victoria rainfall is expected to increase by up to 50% during this time period increasing the frequency and severity of floods (Hulme et al., 2001;Paavola, 2008) According to the IPCC (2007), climate change is caused by emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxides, from anthropogenic sources including agriculture, energy, transport, and industrial sectors. Natural systems known to contribute to atmospheric greenhouse gases include volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and cosmic processes. In the last two to three decades climate change has become an overriding development challenge especially in the western and central semi-arid areas of Tanzania (Bamwenda, 2008) Considering the impacts that climate change poses to livelihoods, agricultural, socio-economic growth, and policy choices for development, climate change has become major topic on the national agenda. The citizens are concerned that challenges associated with climate change cuts across all development efforts put forth by the communities and the government, hence threatening the achievement of MKUKUTA II, Millennium Development Goals, Vision 2025, the National Agricultural Policy, Rural Development Policy, Kilimo Kwanza, and most specifically the initiatives, strategies, and plans related to eliminating food and nutrition insecurity, poverty, and promoting sustainable development such as the agricultural growth corridors Currently, there is an ongoing debate across the spectrum of the Tanzanian society i.e., scientists, policy makers, and the general public on the degree of climate change impacts, how they relate to poverty, and measures that may be appropriate for mitigation and adaptation to the changing climate In principle, most citizens agree that we must acquire understanding of climate change and prepare to live in a climatic environment that may be more erratic than the present. Recently the Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF) and Food Agriculture Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) initiated national dialogue series on building climate change resilience in Africa’s agricultural research programmes (ESRF and FANRPAN, 2010). In a recent workshop on “National Dialogue on Building Climate Change Resilience In Africa’s Agriculture” held on November 30, in Dar es Salaam, it was observed that coping with climate change is very challenging problem due to the lack of reliable and sufficient information, data, and requisite expertise in various sectors and regions that will be affected. It

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was emphasized that when developing and reforming policies should take into consideration climatic implications and that environmental considerations be made during policy formulation because policy making is considered to be one of the front line and effective approaches in addressing climate change challenges. It was observed that adaptation based on local knowledge is crucial in coping with climate change and efforts in this area should be intensified. It was urged that there should be a collaborative multi-sectoral approach to mainstream climate change in national development projects, programmes and policies. Finally, it was recommended that more agricultural research should be conducted with the aim of enhancing productivity, specifically in fast-growing and climate-resilient crops as a way of coping with the challenges of climate change.

This paper looks at Tanzania’s climate change position and the research approaches in propagating climate change resilience in the agricultural sector, which is the priority sector for natural resources management and socio-economic growth. This work is mainly based on desk research focusing on climate change resilience through agricultural research. Table 1. The recent climatic extremes in Tanzania (Bamwenda, 2008)

Year Affected region

FLOODS

Jan. 2008 Morogoro

Sept.-Dec 2007 Sumbawanga, Morogoro,

Oct. 2006-March 2007 Shinyanga, Dodoma, Iringa, Mwanza, Tabora, Mbeya, Kigoma

October 2006 Shinyanga, Mwanza, Tabora, Dodoma, and Iringa

April 2005 Zanzibar,

May 1998 Dar es Salaam

April 1997 Coast, floods induced by El Nino

May 1995 Coast, Dar es Salaam

Feb. 1993 Tanga

April 1990 Lindi, Mtwara

April 1989 Ruvuma

DROUGHTS

2005-2006

2003 CW1

1999-2000 CW

1997-1998 CW

1993–1994 CW

1992-1993 CW

1987 CW

1 *Country wide- major part of the country affected

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Year Affected region

1983-1984 CW

1975-1976 CW

1971 CW

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2.0 FINDINGS

2.1 Challenges Core Challenges Some key challenges associated with present and future climate change consequences in Tanzania’s agricultural sector are outlined below (Bamwenda, 2008, Bamwenda, 2011):

1. Inadequate understanding and knowledge of climate change science, its influence and effects on the environmental resource base, agricultural and economic activities at community level.

2. Human resources challenge: Low climate change knowledge and skills levels of policy implementers and actors to devise appropriate and timely responses to climate change impacts.

3. Inadequate data and information on the extent to which climate change is likely to impact on the nature of weather variability, and the implications for farming systems and future agricultural productivity and development in specific agro-ecological zones. Other includes limited availability of expertise on the practices and home grown innovations for mitigating climate induced risks in poor seasons.

4. The majority of Tanzania’s agriculture is rain-fed agriculture. More than 95% of the communities depend on agriculture for their livelihoods out of which only 1.12% has the irrigation infrastructure. Thus, changing rainfall patterns, as experienced in some parts of the country, would impact negatively on the agricultural sector and the national economy

5. 6. Extended and frequently recurring droughts causing a continual decline of soil moisture

and degradation and reduced water levels in rivers, lakes and aquifers, consequently affecting irrigation schemes.Declining water levels in water bodies and rivers brought about by droughts may trigger an energy crisis, as already being felt around the country that may hamper activities in the agricultural value chain and related sectors from research and development, through production, processing to trade.

7. Inadequate formulation and implementation of strategies and climate change mitigation and adaptation measures to address the variability in rainfall patterns and expected rise in mean ambient temperature of 2-3 degrees Centigrade and its consequences, e.g., every one-degree-Celsius rise above normal temperature is expected to result in 10% fall in grain yields (Paavola, 2008, Shemsanga, 2010).

8. Expansion of land under cultivation and intensification of agricultural activities through inappropriate practices e.g. slash burning with increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions, may lead to increased climate change challenges.

9. Lack of adequate resources for development of measures and the construction and maintenance of appropriate physical and technical infrastructure to sufficiently respond to climate change effects.

10. Inadequate access to environmental, natural resources, and agricultural knowledge, technologies, and extension competences that may help farmers and stakeholders to

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cope better with current rainfall variability as a prerequisite to adapting to future climate change.

11. Impediments to the development, diffusion and use of relevant technologies that surface at several levels – from the inception and innovation stages to the transfer of technologies and the access to agricultural innovations by vulnerable smallholders in developing countries.

12. The agronomic constraints, e.g. the process of transferring agricultural innovations across agro-ecological and climatic Constraints at the adoption stage: this includes several factors potentially impeding poor farmers’ access to and use of new mitigation and adaptation technologies. These include static, poorly functioning or poorly integrated input or output markets; weak local institutions and infrastructure; inadequate or ineffective extension systems; missing credit and insurance markets.

13. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector also have the potential to exacerbate other natural resource management challenges, both directly through changes in the biophysical environment and indirectly through any structural adjustment which results in land use change. Examples of exacerbated resource management challenges include increased soil erosion as a result of reduced ground cover and increased incidence of extreme wind and rain events; and increased invasion and dominance of weeds as a result of declining income reducing the ability of farmers to invest in weed management.

14. Socio-economic challenges- lack of socio-economic incentives to change the attitude and mindset or to take integrated approaches to address climate change challenges, e.g. on the ecosystem.

15. Inadequate capacity to negotiate, mobilize funding, and access finance for solving climate related challenges.

2.2 Potential general responses to the challenges Climate change is causing impacts and spillovers that will require concerted efforts now and in the future. Table 2 presents potential responses and technologies that seem particularly promising in addressing the above challenges and in mitigating or adapting to climate change effects. Such responses could be used as a platform for exploring the policies and institutions necessary to support the development and diffusion of responses and technologies (Bamwenda and Abdallah 2011). As shown in Table 2, while new traits, varieties and crops will play an important role, the range of relevant practice and technologies is much broader than this, including water management, production practices, post-harvest technologies, information and forecasting, and insurance. Experience in other countries show that the best policy and institutional responses will enhance information flows, incentives and flexibility. In addition, it has been observed that policies and institutions that promote economic development and reduce poverty often improve

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agricultural adaptation and may also pave the way for more effective climate change mitigation through agriculture (Global Authors, 2009). Table 2. Climate change impact and potential adaptive responses (Bamwenda and Abdallah 2011)

Direct physical and ecosystem impact Potential adaptive response

Increased heat shock/stress Develop crop varieties tolerant to heat schock and stress through plant breeding

Timing of planting, cultivar selection

Reduced soil moisture Zero till practices, crop/cultivar selection

Increased variability and changes to seasonality of rainfall

Diversify farm enterprise, opportunistic planting

Reduced grain quality /nutrient content Match optimized nutrient application to season

Increased yields in higher rainfall areas due to decreased incidence of soil water logging

Integrate cropping into higher rainfall regional plans

Changes to sowing and harvest time Revise production schedules to maintain yield / meet market demand

Altered water demand Secure water supply, improve water management

Reduced quality (nutritional, appearance due to water/temperature stress, and increased carbon dioxide concentrations)

Modify fertilizer regime, alter production cycle to avoid extremes

Changes to the dynamics of pests, diseases and weeds

Increase monitoring and increase adoption of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) practices

2.3 Research responses Knowledge of climate change and efforts to address climate change impacts in the Tanzania’s agricultural sector are still in infancy stage. Only a few subsectors have recognized climate change as an issue, have developed coherent, robust coping strategies and invested sufficient measures for climate change related capacity enhancement, training, research and extension services. Concerns about mitigating and adapting to climate change are renewing the impetus for investments in agricultural research and are emerging as additional innovation priorities (COSTECH, 2010). In the coming decades, the development and effective diffusion of new

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agricultural practices and technologies will largely shape on how well farmers mitigate and adapt to climate change. Currently, efforts are being made to put in place the necessary institutional change, indentify vulnerabilities, designing innovative mitigation and adaptation approaches, and to increase the quality and quantity of human resources and funding for agricultural research. For the last two years increasing efforts have been directed towards strengthening institutions and structures and to raise the capacity to identify, develop and appraise climate change related programmes and projects (Myaka, 2011, Nyange, 2011). Below is a summary of climate change related research and development efforts that have been undertaken or being undertaken in the agricultural sector. 2.3.1 Selected research and development of crop varieties and propagation materials Research and development of crop varieties and propagation materials that have higher temperature tolerance and can withstand moisture extremes, both increased moisture stress and risk of temporary flooding, such as crops that are adapted to heat, high soil temperatures, and short duration varieties and early cultivars. Research in agricultural research institutes (ARI) Over years the agricultural research institutes (ARI) in the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security have been conducting climate change related research with notable success stories (Myaka, 2011). This includes: Development of high yielding market class bean varieties with desirable agronomic and organoleptic characteristics including tolerance/resistance to major pests and diseases. Further research work includes : a) To incorporate drought tolerance, disease and pest resistance into promising maize and bean cultivars; b) to develop environmentally friendly maize and bean varieties through breeding; c) to multiply and maintain breeder seed of beans; d) To evaluate for yield promising lines and advanced crosses and release promising lines/cultivars; e) to develop and introduce environmentally friendly agronomic packages for bean production; f) to develop, evaluate and promote effective and environmentally friendly IPM strategies against pests such as Bruchids and White flies; g) to develop, test and evaluate the efficacy of eco-friendly fertilizers, pesticides, fungicides, herbicides, and accaricides; h) to develop and Introduce environmental friendly weed management packages in specific locations; g) to develop improved crop varieties that are drought tolerant, high yielding and tolerant to abiotic stresses and to multiply and maintain breeder seeds; i) to conduct soil fertility surveys; j) to conduct research on water harvest technologies and introduce technologies in semi-arid areas; and k) to evaluate multi purpose trees for fuel wood and green manuring maize farming systems.

In the last five years the ARIs have recorded several achievements as listed below.

• Varieties released with desirable qualities: 16 maize, 5 rice, 5 wheat, 6 sorghum, 2 pearl millet; 17 cassava, 8 sweet potatoes, 6 Irish potatoes, 4 tomatoes, 2 onions, 7 cabbage, 2 grapes, 15 phaseolus beans, 4 cowpeas, 5 pigeon peas, 2 green grams, 4

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sesame, 5 groundnuts, 16 cashew nuts, 9 hybrids of Arabica coffee, 7 cotton, 4 pyrethrum, 3 tobacco, 2 hybrid sisal;

• Breeder seed production of released varieties (2009/2010): 51 tons cereal crops, 43 tons grain legumes, 10 tons oilseeds, 12 million cuttings of roots and tubers and grapes, 40,000 seedlings of pyrethrum, sisal and bananas;

Table 3 presents the recently released technologies and products (see Annex 1). WEMA Project Another typical example of research efforts in Tanzania is the WEMA project. The Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA) is a private-public partnership between the Tanzania Commission for Science and Technology (COSTECH) in collaboration with the Division of Research and Development in the Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives and the Africa Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), and Monsanto. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) and the Howard G. Buffet Foundation support the project. The ten-year WEMA-TZ Project explores measures to increase resilience to drought induced food insecurity and to minimize the amount of suffering by developing drought tolerant maize varieties using conventional and biotechnology interventions. The project aims at exploiting the potential of conventional and molecular breeding, genomics and biotechnology techniques to develop drought tolerant maize (DTM) for small-scale farmers in Tanzania. Furthermore, the project intends to enhance the research and development expertise of project partners both from Tanzania and CIMMYT. This collaboration will enable tapping of synergies between the partners to expedite development of drought-tolerance in maize. The Agricultural Research Institutes in Tanzania and CIMMYT will provide expertise in breeding for abiotic stresses, germplasm and infrastructure, while Monsanto will provide biotechnology traits and access to molecular breeding platforms. The Project will benefit from the expertise of AATF in the management of innovative partnerships. This will enable the development and testing of DTM varieties that will be available royalty-free to small-scale farmers in Tanzania. The Project has four main components: Project Governance, Product Development, Regulatory and Communication component.

Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation (CCIAM) Programme in Tanzania This research is carried out at Sokoine University of agriculture. The research component has the following specific objectives which are translated into thematic areas: 1) Development of appropriate climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in forestry, other land uses, ecosystems and biodiversity management. 2) Assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability on ecosystem services and livelihoods under Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) initiatives.

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3) Policy and legal framework analysis of climate change adaptation and mitigation with emphasis on economic efficiency, ecological effectiveness and wider political legitimacy. These themes have the following components: Theme 1: Development of appropriate climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in forestry, other land uses, ecosystems and biodiversity Management”

Quantification of the potential for forestry based carbon off-sets and carbon trading

Development of forest carbon assessment and monitoring system

Determine effective and efficient payment system for REDD in Tanzania

Determine appropriate approach to limit deforestation and forest degradationin Tanzania for its participation in REDD

Modeling the impacts of climate change and management scenarios in forestry, land-use, ecosystem and biodiversity

Assessment of Small Holder Forestry Potential for Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation and Rural Development

Financial analysis of Carbon sequestration and storage

Development of strategic interventions for adaptation in forestry, and other land uses including human settlements.

Assessment of innovative agricultural land use and farming systems for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change to support REDD initiatives.

Development and testing of various range land management strategies for the purpose of reducing pressure on forest resources for adaptation and mitigation to climate change

Theme 2: Assessment of climate change impacts on and vulnerability of ecosystem services and livelihoods under REDD initiatives:

Establishment of trends and projections of ecosystem services associated with climate stressors.

Model effects of alternative management options on ecosystem services under changing climate.

Development of methods to describe relationships between ecosystem services, climate stressors and management responses.

Assessment of local climate change vulnerability of biodiversity and forest related livelihoods and adaptation options.

Assessment of macroeconomic impacts of climate change in forest resource management and its implication for different ecological zones.

Integrated analysis and synthesis of lessons learned from adaptation options and macroeconomic impacts.

2.3.2 Examples of research on climate modeling Trend analyses were performed on climatological data signals of Climate Change This study is conducted by Osima et al at Tanzania Meteorological Agency. Trend analyses are performed on climatological data obtained from Tanzania Meteorological Agency to assess

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signals associated with climate change in the country. The data included monthly total rainfall, mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1961 to 2007. Results indicate significant long term changes in both rainfall and temperature, consistent with the changes in global climate as outlined in the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It was found that the observed negative rainfall trend and positive temperature trend already caused intense pressure on Coastal population. The study recommended to develop adaptive and resilience mechanisms that would enable communities to cope with the observed and predicted climatic change, in particular flooding, drought and extreme weather events Resilient Agro-landscapes to Climate Change in Tanzania (The ReACCT-Project) This study is undertaken by Tscherning et al. The ReACCT project started in May 2008in Morogoro. The project aims at assessing the regional impacts of climate change on agro-landscapes and environment in Tanzania (Morogoro) and at identifying adaptation strategies for small-scale agriculture. Assessments on related land use sectors as forest, hydrology, nature conservation and biodiversity are considered involving local partners and farmers. Driven by regional climate change scenarios, integrated agro-ecosystem models are used to assess combined climate change and management effects on crop production, water resources and soil fertility. These agro-ecosystem models are linked closely to hydrological models. Complementarily, stakeholders develop options of management practices in potential future agro-landscapes based on the same regional climate change scenarios. CCLM modeling runs produced first promising climate scenarios for Tanzania. Historical vegetation maps of Tanzania have been identified and are currently being evaluated to create a local database of occurring tree species. Readiness for adoption of the recommended species, adapted to the relevant climate scenarios, will be explored among smallholder farmers by socioeconomic surveys. Participative research activities started in the Ngerengere catchment, which was also chosen for the hydrological modeling exercises. Trial sites for field experiments in three regions are identified and sensor installation is expected to occur soon. Together with scientists from national research institutes and the Sokoine University appropriate crops and varieties for the field experiments are selected. Supplemental irrigation and water use efficiency experiments with maize will be planted.

2.4 Other priority research options Other research areas that may yield valuable outputs that could enable agricultural sector stakeholders to cope with risks and realize opportunities associated with climate variability and change include the following (Bamwenda, 2011).

1. Increasing efforts in the breeding of high yielding crop varieties and propagation materials that are adapted to heat, high soil temperatures, and disease resistant varieties. This will enable the agricultural research system to better understand the physiological mechanism underlying heat tolerance, identify wider gene pools from which to develop crops of wider adaptability, and develop more effective screening

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techniques of germplasm for desired traits. In addition, such research could facilitate the understanding of important phenomena such as photoperiod-sensitive flowering, information on genetic variation for and transpiration efficiency, and development of short duration varieties that could escape terminal drought.

2. Research on enhancing community management of crop diversity, including indigenous and marginalized crops, to enhance resilience, yield stability and sustainable income generation.

3. Research on improved rainfall use efficiency, use of natural resources, and soil fertility management so as to develop targeted and accessible innovations that have a high probability of success in the context of season-to-season weather variability. For instance developing Tanzania specific crop growth, soil and water management simulation models could help farmers devise ways to manage landscapes, soils and crops so that more of the water and nutrient resources are stored and used more efficiently and over a longer time period.

4. Research for providing science-based advice to inform policy formulation for enhancing mitigation of, recovery from, and resilience to climate induced crisis affecting farmers and providing climate-based decision support systems that will enable farmers and other agricultural value chain stakeholders to build adaptive capacity to cope with increasing vulnerability due to climate change

5. Studies on climate risk analysis frameworks that provide a medium-term strategic understanding of the temporal and spatial distribution of current rainfall variability, and its impact on performance and profitability of existing and innovative agricultural practices. Such studies can also be beneficial for managing risk, reducing vulnerability and enhancing productivity.

6. Research on seasonal climate and agricultural forecasting that would enable farmers and agricultural sector stakeholders to continually fine-tune or adjust their strategies and thus plan tactically and produce more effectively in the face of seasonally variable weather and other emerging climate change challenges.

7. Research on addressing the increased proliferation, changed distribution and severity of plant pests and diseases with increase in temperature, and devising approaches for minimizing postharvest management losses during droughts and floods.

8. Research into water management and irrigation e.g. solar powered drip irrigation may have potential benefits

9. Research in green energy through raising plantations of perennial non edible oil- seed producing plants, will help in cleansing the atmosphere and in the production of bio diesel, for direct use in the energy sector or in blending with fossil diesel in certain proportions, and to that extent minimizing use of fossil fuel. Such research could be planned on arid and semi arid lands without competing with regular agricultural crops raised on more fertile soils; suitable agricultural crops of short duration could also be raised in these plantations as inter crops, supplementing regular agricultural production. Such efforts will help in reducing the effects of global warming, thereby brightening the prospects for increased rainfall in tropical belts, it will also serve the cause of agricultural communities of the developing world by creating more job opportunities.

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An example is to raise plantations with wild and regular Castor plants along with short term crops like pulses and cotton as inter crops.

10. Research into gender issues on how to enhance the capacity and equitable access of women to climate change education, knowledge and skills for coping with risks and realizing opportunities associated with climate variability and change and increasing agricultural productivity and reducing poverty through creativity and participation in adaptive capacity building exercises.

These research studies are either in the design stage or in the preliminary implementation phases in agricultural research institutions, academia, parastatal research institutes, Tanzania, Meteorological Agency (TMA), regional research centers in Tanzania, Environmental Protection and Management Services, NGOs such as the Agricultural Innovation Research Foundation, Envirocare, Environmental Watch Association of Tanzania, Mwanza Non-Governmental Organization Network, and TGNP. Opportunities at the Institute of Resources Assessment (IRA Recently Yanda and other stakeholders have initiated a Regional Climate Change Programme which is coordinated by the Institute of Resources Assessment(Yanda, 2011). This programme among other things is going to undertake sectoral specific studies as per emerging needs; develop climate change communication, education, training and public awareness programmes; develop information dissemination mechanisms on climate change impacts; enhance the capacity to mobilize financial resources for adaptation activities; and strengthen institutional capacity for mainstreaming climate change issues in sectoral programmes and plans. Other opportunities at Ira include the Climate Change in Africa Programme that is focusing on managing climate change risks, including water management, soil management, and indigenous knowledge systems. It is implemented in collaboration with Sokoine University of Agriculture. Another capacity building program is on supporting R&D institutions to allow them to bring adaptation capacity to seven agricultural zones. This program is conducted in collaboration with the Division of Research and Development, Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security.

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3.0 WAY FORWARD AND CONCLUSION

In the medium to longer-term, Tanzania’s agricultural sector, especially the rain-fed farming systems, will remain vital for future food and nutrition security, for provision of raw materials for industries and for export. There is a need to recognize that science, technology and innovation underpin success and sustainability in all aspects for coping with risks and realizing opportunities associated with climate variability and change and in addressing existing and future impacts of climate induced crises in the agricultural sector. Tanzania should build capabilities and competences to able to develop, adapt and exploit scientific and technological solutions appropriate to specific needs, otherwise we risk becoming more embroiled in never ending crisis and emergencies. First and foremost, there is a need to undertake research to better quantify climate risks to enable the identification, targeted promotion and implementation of investment innovations that have a high probability of success in the context of variable climates in the agricultural sector. On the other hand, creating the necessary agricultural technologies and harnessing them to enable the stakeholders to adapt their agricultural systems to changing climate will require innovations in policy and institutions as well. In this context, institutions and policies are important at multiple scales and across all related environmental and agricultural supporting clusters and sectors. Secondly, concerted efforts and investments should be made in enhancing climate change research and development capabilities to provide science-based solutions and approaches for adaptation of Tanzania’s rural poor and most vulnerable stakeholders across the whole agricultural value chain. This should go in tandem with sound, evidence based policy making, and development of merit-based institutional arrangements and processes. In addition, Tanzania needs to have in place appropriate, regional and community specific climate change mitigation and adaptation mechanisms, infrastructure for training and exploitation of knowledge, research, and dissemination and use of outputs. This will enable Tanzania to address and cope with increasing vulnerability and environmental and socio-economic challenges associated to climate change and participate in the regional and international community efforts, e.g. in the implementation of the East African Community Climate Change Policy and East African Community Climate Change Master Plan (EAC, 2010). Finally, several specific investments and policy priorities must be implemented including (a)increasing investments in public agricultural R&D, (b) rebuilding and expanding public agricultural research capacity in the ARIs, parastatals, and academia, (c) harnessing new technologies e.g. agricultural biotechnology as a potentially important option, (d) encouraging complementarities between public and private/regional agricultural research, helping to mitigate risk, (e) investing in better information and forecasts, (f ) supporting competitive and

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responsive agricultural markets, creating public understanding on climate change preparedness and adaptation issues and (g) encouraging investments that improve spatial market integration. Conclusion From the interviews conducted during the study on Sensitive and Special Products it became apparent that most Tanzanians, especially the agricultural communities and agricultural value chain stakeholders, are well aware of the seriousness of climate change and the need for positioning themselves to respond to the challenges it poses for the agriculture sector in Tanzania ( Bamwenda 2008). In addition, the stakeholders must strive to understand and address factors that contribute to climate change in their respective subsectors. Adaptation and mitigation in agriculture will require local responses, but effective policy responses must also reflect global impacts and inter-linkages across the agricultural value chains and supporting sectors. Issues at the end of the chain like trade will play a critical role in both mitigation and adaptation, but will itself be shaped importantly by climate change. The priority responses should be centered on promoting and facilitating the following:

Effectively implement set policies, laws, goals, strategies and measures; use research results; conduct monitoring and evaluation and report the results to the public: this has been the major drawback;

Need an engagement strategy/plan and determining the cost and benefit of every resilience management option: e.g. building resilience beginning at family level (e.g. knowledge of behavior of rainfall; knowhow, technologies and capacity for efficient post-harvest food handling and long-term warehousing at family and ward level);

There is a need for the Government’s strong will to commit adequate resources to climate change adaptation efforts and to ensure prudent use of resources to prepare to live in changing climatic environments and manage climate change induced risks;

devise sound mitigation and sustainable adaptation coping strategies that involve multidisciplinary approaches and are sensitive to local environmental, social and cultural diversity (e.g. rain harvesting, drip irrigation, etc.) and integrating them in strategic economic sectors;

farmer communities and their indigenous knowledge systems should be proactively involved from the design stage of any mitigation and adaptation proposals and projects, and they should be properly trained in the application of the new and emerging technologies, techniques, methods and innovative adaptive measures appropriate e.g., in ward agricultural centers and community farm field schools/ demonstration farms;

encouraging the country-wide transfer and sharing of information, knowledge, innovations, and technologies, especially drought tolerant crop varieties and those with short maturing periods;

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cooperating with the stakeholders in undertaking a strategic transformation of the agricultural systems to adapt them to emerging potential changes and to maintain the momentum for change, including developing country-wide, accessible databases, e.g. on climate change resilience efforts in thecountry;

develop markets and encourage communities to diversify into using existing crops that are drought tolerant and do not need a lot of inputs for production, such as millet, “dengu”, choroko” and sorghum;

To ensure appropriate collaborative networks are strengthened to share experiences and best practices.

The Ministry of Agriculture Food Security and Cooperatives and Tanzania Metereological Agency should use the newly acquired satellite station to monitor climate change to coordinate efforts to build robust information systems and advise farmers accordingly, e.g. when to plant;

The first signal of climate change effects normally appears in forests; thus climate change resilience efforts should go in tandem in the agricultural and forest sectors and should be well coordinated;

The Government and energy stakeholders should invest in alternative energy production and dissemination to reduce the rate of deforestation.

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4.0 REFERENCES

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

2. Vice President’s Office-United Republic of Tanzania (VPO-URT), 2007. National Adaption Programme of Action.

3. UNDRO. 1993. United Republic of Tanzania Floods Information Reports, 1989-1993. 4. ESRF and FANRPAN, 2010. A National Dialogue on Building Climate Change Resilience

in Africa’s Agriculture, Workshop Report, November 30. 5. J. Maghembe. 2011. The Preliminary National Sample Census Agricultural and

Livestock Sector Report, National Bureau of Statistics, 19 March. 6. Bamwenda G. R. and Roshan A.2011. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and

challenges of the agricultural research system in Tanzania, in the Proceedings on the technical discussions on the formulation of the Tanzania Agricultural Research Strategy, Millennium Sea Breeze Hotel, Bagamoyo, Tanzania Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives, 14-16th February 2011.

7. Myaka, F. A., 2011, The State of Agricultural Research and Development in Tanzania; in the Proceedings on the technical discussions on the formulation of the Tanzania Agricultural Research Strategy, Millennium Sea Breeze Hotel, Bagamoyo, Tanzania Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives, 14-16th February 2011.

8. Nyange N., 2011. The Role of the Commission of Science and Technology (COSTECH) and the direction of Scientific Research and Development in Tanzania; Commission of Science and Technology, 2011.The Role of Science, Technology and Human Resources in the Implementation of Kilimo Kwanza, in the Proceedings on the technical discussions on the formulation of the Tanzania Agricultural Research Strategy, Millennium Sea Breeze Hotel, Bagamoyo, Tanzania Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives, 14-16th February 2011.

9. Bamwenda G.R. 2008. The Impact of global warming on Tanzania’s food security, MBA Thesis, Eastern and Southern Africa Management Institute-Maastricht School of Management, February.

10. Paavola, J.2008. Livelihood, Vulnerability, and Adaptation to Climate Change in Morogoro, Tanzania, J. Environmental Science and Policy, 11, 642-654.

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12. Bamwenda G.R., 2008. Special and Sensitive Products for Tanzania, UNDP-FAO Report, October.

13. Bamwenda G.R. 2011. Value adding Research Initiatives for Growth and Development of Tanzania’s Agricultural Crops Sector in the Immediate and Medium Term, Proceedings on the technical discussions on the formulation of the Tanzania Agricultural Research Strategy, Millennium Sea Breeze Hotel, Bagamoyo, Tanzania Academy of

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Sciences and Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives, 14-16th February 2011.

14. East African Community, 2010. East African Community Climate Change Policy, May. 15. Bamwenda G.R. and Abdallah R. 2011. High Value Agriculture for Sustainable

Development, forthcoming. 16. Global Authors, 2009. Agriculture at Crossroads: Sub-Saharan Report. International

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ANNEX 1

Table3. Recently released technologies and products by MAFC agricultural research institutes and the private sector (Myaka, 2011)

Crop Year Technology Station Short description

Maize 2009 UHS 5350 ARI Uyole • Suitable in altitude 1200-1600 meters a.s.l • Yield potential 8-9 tons/ha. • Matures in 150 days • Resistant to Maize Streak Virus disease and Gray leaf spot disease

Maize

2009

TAN H600

Tanseed International Ltd.

• Suitable in low land and mid altitude 500-1500 meters a.s.l • Yields 6-7 tons/ha • Resistant to Maize Streak disease and leaf rust disease • Drought resistant

Rice

2009

NERICA 1 NERICA 2 NERICA 4 NARICA 7 WAB450-12-2BLB-DV4

KATRIN

• Suitable for upland • Yield 3-4 tons/ha. • Mature in 95 -100 days • Suitable for Eastern, Lake and Southern highlands zones

Cassava 2009 Rangi mbili, Meremeta, Mkombozi, Belinde, Kasala, Suma, Nyakafulo and Kyaka

ARI Ukiriguru • Suitable for the lake zone • Yield potential 17 – 23 tons/ha. • Matures in 9 – 12 months • Resistant to cassava mosaic and Cassava brown streak diseases • Drought resistant

Sweet potato

2011 Mataya & Kiegea

ARI Kibaha • Suitable in lowland areas with altitude 1000 meters a.s.l. • Yield potential 12 – 13 tons/ha.

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Crop Year Technology Station Short description

• Matures in four months • Contains vitamin A (beta carotene

Wheat 2006 Riziki C1 ARI Selian • Early maturing (90 days) • High yields potential 3 t/ha • Resistant to stem rust

Beans 2007 Selian 06 ARI Selian • Climbing beans • Resistant to most beans diseases • Potential in altitude 1000 – 1500 Meters a.s.l • Yield potential 2 – 3 tons/ha.

Soya 2011 Uyole Soya 2 ARI Uyole • Suitable in areas with altitude 800 – 1800 meters a.s.l. • Yield potential 2 – 3 tons/ha. • Matures in 100 days

Chick pea

2011 Mwanza 1, Ukiriguru1, Mwanza 2 & Mwangaza

ARI Ukiriguru • Suitable in areas with altitude 250 to 1600 meters a.s.l. • Yield potential 2 – 4 tons/ha. • Mature in 90 – 100 days • Drought resistant

Tomatoes

2007 Meru HORTI- Tengeru • Suitable in altitude 500 – 1500 meters a.s.l • Resistant to late blight disease • Yield potential 50-100tons /ha.

Grapes 2007 Makutupora Makutupora (VRTC)

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Crop Year Technology Station Short description

Red • Suitable for red wine • Yield potential 12-20 tons/ha.

Grapes 2007 Chenin Nyeupe

Makutupora • Suitable for white wine • Yield potential 15-20 tons/ha.

Maize 2009 UHS 5350 ARI Uyole • Suitable in altitude 1200-1600 meters a.s.l • Yield potential 8-9 tons/ha. • Matures in 150 days • Resistant to Maize Streak Virus disease and Gray leaf spot disease

Maize 2009 UHS 5210 ARI Uyole • Suitable in altitude 1200 – 1600 meters a.s.l • Matures in 140 days • Resistant to Maize Streak Virus and Gray Leaf spot diseases

Sesame 2009 Mtwara -09 • Suitable for coast Dodoma,Mtwara and Lindi regions • Yield potential 1.5 tons/ha • Matures in 110 – 115 days

• Resistant to leaf diseases (Cercoseptoria sesame) • Oil content 53%