Looking back to look forwardLooking back to look forwardLooking back to look forwardLooking back to look forward

19761976All those things we lived withoutAll those things we lived without

FaxFax PCsPCs PC SoftwarePC Software WalkmanWalkman Cable TVCable TV Video GamesVideo Games Cell PhonesCell Phones InternetInternet

LAN/WansLAN/Wans USA TodayUSA Today DVDDVD MicrosoftMicrosoft Direct TVDirect TV CD PlayersCD Players VCRsVCRs

Did you predict you would need any of them?Did you predict you would need any of them?

Or that 20 years later you couldn't live Or that 20 years later you couldn't live without them many of them ?without them many of them ?

Most of the winners didn’t exist Most of the winners didn’t exist or were laggardsor were laggards

CompaqCompaq

DellDell

GatewayGateway

Intuit (Quicken)Intuit (Quicken)

TCI, MTV, ESPNTCI, MTV, ESPN

Video GamesVideo Games

Novell, Cisco Novell, Cisco

Yahoo, AmazonYahoo, Amazon

MicrosoftMicrosoft

Direct TVDirect TV

Asian Asian Manufacturers Manufacturers of CE of CE

Do you think the next 20 years are going to Do you think the next 20 years are going to be any different ?be any different ?

We are entering a New Age!We are entering a New Age!

The Age of....The Age of....

Defragmentation of MediaDefragmentation of Media

All Media is becoming a stream of digital bits

Goodbye AnalogGoodbye Analog

VHS TapesVHS Tapes

TelevisionTelevision

NewslettersNewsletters

CableCable

RecordsRecords

Cellular PhonesCellular Phones

NewspapersNewspapers

DVDDVD

HDTV/BroadbandHDTV/Broadband

EmailEmail

Digital CableDigital Cable

CDsCDs

Digital PhonesDigital Phones

WebPagesWebPages

Hello DigitalHello Digital

In a Digital WorldIn a Digital WorldBits don’t care if they are Bits don’t care if they are

AudioAudioVideoVideo

AnimationAnimationor ?or ?

Maybe we need to rethink Maybe we need to rethink some things….some things….

#1 What is Media ?What is Media ?

It used to be defined by its specturmIt used to be defined by its specturm– TV by channels, Radio by stationsTV by channels, Radio by stations

Now its all becoming digitalNow its all becoming digital– All digital media is just a stream of bitsAll digital media is just a stream of bits

All channels are just bandwidthAll channels are just bandwidth– There is lots available to anyoneThere is lots available to anyone– Consumers will be attracted to the most Consumers will be attracted to the most

compelling offeringscompelling offerings

Content Providers will have to be distribution Content Providers will have to be distribution arbitersarbiters– Where is the audience ?Where is the audience ?

#2 What about Content ?What about Content ?

It used to be defined by its packaging It used to be defined by its packaging capacitycapacity– CD - 62 Minutes / VHS - 1 Movie CD - 62 Minutes / VHS - 1 Movie – DVD - 3.7gbDVD - 3.7gb– Not in a digital worldNot in a digital world

Broadband = consumption on demand Broadband = consumption on demand – Pick what you want when you want itPick what you want when you want it– Buffet or Ala CarteBuffet or Ala Carte

Content is now defined by how long it takes Content is now defined by how long it takes to download or its qualityto download or its quality

#3What about Content What about Content

Distribution ?Distribution ?

Content Distribution used to be defined by Content Distribution used to be defined by its windowsits windows– Network - SyndicationNetwork - Syndication– Theatrical - Hotel - Video - CableTheatrical - Hotel - Video - Cable

Not for longNot for long– New forms of distribution will appearNew forms of distribution will appear

– Live, OnDemand, DownloadableLive, OnDemand, Downloadable– Broadband Internet Users will demand what they Broadband Internet Users will demand what they

want, when they want it.want, when they want it.– Hold on to old notions of “windows” and dieHold on to old notions of “windows” and die

I wouldn’t be building 7 years out or later syndication I wouldn’t be building 7 years out or later syndication dollars into any TV show funding plansdollars into any TV show funding plans

#4 What is a Broadcaster ?What is a Broadcaster ?

Every company is a broadcasterEvery company is a broadcaster– Dell, GM, Intel, P&G…Dell, GM, Intel, P&G…

Everyone is a broadcasterEveryone is a broadcaster– For 5k a month you can reach a niche For 5k a month you can reach a niche

audience audience

There will be 100ks of video channels There will be 100ks of video channels within 5 yearswithin 5 years

People will watch Internet video People will watch Internet video interchangeably with traditional TVinterchangeably with traditional TV

Content Explosion by 2001Content Explosion by 2001

Creation tools are dropping leading to Creation tools are dropping leading to user creation of zillions of hoursuser creation of zillions of hours

Your next door neighbor will be your Your next door neighbor will be your competitioncompetition

Millions of hours of dusty content will Millions of hours of dusty content will find lifefind life

Broadcasters must position Broadcasters must position themselves as the leading aggregators themselves as the leading aggregators or possibly be pushed aside !or possibly be pushed aside !

#5

Audience FragmentationAudience Fragmentation

Unlimited content means ultimate Unlimited content means ultimate fragmentation - Personal Channelsfragmentation - Personal Channels

People go to the net for Information, People go to the net for Information, News, Entertainment and PassionsNews, Entertainment and Passions– You can find anything on the net and You can find anything on the net and

people look for things they cant find people look for things they cant find elsewhereelsewhere

– Is grandma going to watch suzy’s Is grandma going to watch suzy’s soccer video for the 15th time or soccer video for the 15th time or Touched by an Angel ?Touched by an Angel ?

#6

Can the TV Networks win on the Net ?Can the TV Networks win on the Net ?

Nope - Not the Big 6 or Cable NetworksNope - Not the Big 6 or Cable Networks– cant drive as much traffic as everyone cant drive as much traffic as everyone

had hopedhad hoped

Their Websites are being “CablizedTheir Websites are being “Cablized– You want a big TV Bang - you go Network You want a big TV Bang - you go Network

programsprograms– You want a big internet bang you go Yahoo You want a big internet bang you go Yahoo

or AOLor AOL

Can’t serve 2 masters and succeedCan’t serve 2 masters and succeed– Perfect Example - Why not stream CNBC ?Perfect Example - Why not stream CNBC ?

Networks won’t catch upNetworks won’t catch up

#7

The Little Kid EffectThe Little Kid Effect

With in 5 years there will be a new media With in 5 years there will be a new media type,that we can’t imagine today type,that we can’t imagine today invented by a child under the age of 15invented by a child under the age of 15

He or She didn’t want to do homework, He or She didn’t want to do homework, so they invented the new killer appso they invented the new killer app

It will change the way we live our lives It will change the way we live our lives more than we have seen in the last 20 more than we have seen in the last 20 yearsyears

#8