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Annika Falkengren President and CEO UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014

UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

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Page 1: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Annika Falkengren President and CEO

UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014

Page 2: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

A Nordic bank with a global reach

2

London

S:t Petersburg

Geneva

Hong Kong Shanghai New Delhi Beijing

Kiev

Dublin

Moscow Denmark

Norway Finland

Sweden

New York

São Paulo

Singapore

Lithuania

Latvia Estonia

Germany Warsaw

Luxembourg

2 900 Corporates & Institutions 400 000 SME:s 4 million private individuals

Page 3: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

SEB’s Core Markets

Economic fundamentals remain relatively robust

Lithuania

Denmark

Norway Finland

Sweden Latvia

Estonia

Germany

-10-8-6-4-202468

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sweden Norway Finland DenmarkNordic GDP development *

-4.5

-2.5

-0.5

1.5

3.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Eurozone GDP development *

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Germany Estonia Latvia Lithuania

German and Baltic GDP development *

* Source: SEB Nordic Outlook, February 2014

%

%

Lithuania

%

3

Page 4: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

SEB’s Core Markets

Strong sovereign finances % of GDP

Sovereign Debt

0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

GreeceItaly

PortugalIrelandCyprus

BelgiumSpain

FranceUK

GermanyHungary

AustriaNetherlands

MaltaSlovenia

FinlandPoland

DenmarkSweden

LatviaLithuania

NorwayLuxemburg

Estonia

Source: IMF WEO Prognosis for 2013

Budget Deficit Current Account Balance

-10% 0% 10% 20%

IrelandSlovenia

SpainCyprus

UKPortugal

PolandGreeceFrance

MaltaItaly

NetherlandsLithuania

BelgiumFinland

HungaryAustria

DenmarkLatvia

SwedenLuxemburg

GermanyEstoniaNorway

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

PolandUK

CyprusFinlandFranceLatvia

GreeceBelgiumEstonia

LithuaniaItaly

PortugalMaltaSpain

HungaryIrelandAustria

DenmarkSloveniaSweden

GermanyLuxemburg

NetherlandsNorway

4

Page 5: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Strategy has remained the same

Build business platform for growth 1 Enhance customer satisfaction 2

Create strong asset quality and balance sheet 4

Achieve operating leverage 3

5

Page 6: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

6

Share-of-wallet in customer segments Number of clients

Large corporates

2010 2013

2,200

+400

Sweden

SME/MidCorp

2010 2013

140,000

+41,000

Sweden

Private

2010 2013

466,000

+60,000

Built business platform for growth…

Page 7: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

SME NPS *

Sweden

+19

+24

2012 2013

Private NPS *

Sweden

+19

+28

2012 2013

Improved customer satisfaction

7

Customer loyalty/satisfaction Targeted measures

Financial Institutions

Willingness to recommend

#1 Nordic

Willingness to recommend

#1 Nordic

Large corporates

* Net Promoter Score

Page 8: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Achieved operating leverage

8

Average quarterly income (SEK bn)

9.2 9.4 9.8 10.4 10.4

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Jan-Mar2014

Average quarterly expenses (SEK bn)

5.8 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.3

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Jan-Mar2014

Average quarterly profit before credit losses (SEK bn)

Notes: Excluding one-offs (restructuring in 2010, and bond buy-back and IT impairment in 2012) Estimated IAS 19 costs in 2010

3.4 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.1

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Jan-Mar2014

Flat cost target 2012-2015

15% income growth target

2012-2015

Page 9: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Organic growth strategy has created earnings stability

9

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014

Retail Banking Corporate and Transaction Banking Life and Wealth Markets Baltic

21%

21%

23%

23%

12%

8%

13%

21%

30%

28%

Percent depicts Business Area in percent of total income

Average quarterly income 2008-2013 and Q1 2014

SEK m

Page 10: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Successful implementation of retail strategy in Sweden

10

Substantially increased operating Profit Strong development of key ratios

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014

C/I Business Equity RoBE

Q1 2014 44% SEK 24.4bn 20.6%

2013 49% SEK 20.2bn 21.9%

2012 57% SEK 14.4bn 22.3%

2011 65% SEK 10.8bn 21.4%

2010 71% SEK 9.7bn 14.5%

SEK m Average quarterly operating profit

Page 11: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Focus on full service customers – Residential mortgage lending growth is a consequence of the strategy

11

350

370

390

410

430

450

470

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

466

375

50

150

250

350

450

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

+60

>80% conversion to full-service customers

Number of full service customers (thousands)

Household mortgage lending growth (SEK bn)

Page 12: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Strong credit characteristics and strict underwriting standards underpin SEB’s mortgage lending

12

SEB’s portfolio – Low LTVs

0-50%

51-70% 16.8%

>85% 0.4%

Loan-to-value Share of portfolio

77.8%

5.0% 71-85%

Page 13: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Corporate & Institution strategy focused on main client segments in the Nordic region and Germany

RoBE 11.5%

Bus. Equity 15.5bn

RoBE 13.6%

Bus. Equity 3.8bn

Financial institutions

Op. Profit SEK 8.2bn

Real Estate

28%

Share of MB profit* Share of MB profit*

8%

13

0.50 C/I

RoBE 13.5%

Bus. Equity 29.5bn

Corporate

RoBE 12.9%

Share of MB profit*

63%

Page 14: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Broadened corporate platform outside Sweden

14

0.4

0.4

1.0

0.5

0.9

0.9

1.6

1

Operating profit, rolling 12 months (SEK bn, FX-adj)

CAGR 2010 - Q1 2014

+31%

+23%

+16%

+27% 2010

Q1 2014

Denmark

Finland

Norway

Germany

2010

Q1 2014

2010

Q1 2014

2010

Q1 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013

Large Corporates and Financial Institutions New client income contribution (%)

2%

5%

7%

10%

171

49

93

100

84

209

305

413

Average product penetration 2010 – 2012

cash management trade finance

foreign exchange

relationship lending

leasing

corporate finance

fixed income commodities

structured finance

corporate cards life

custody

fund services

equities

asset management

debt capital markets

2010 Now 2011 2012

5

4

3

2

1

0

New clients 2010 2011 2012

# of new clients, cumulative

Page 15: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Capturing the disintermediation trend

15

Significant deals in Q1 2014

9,436

16,168

17,551

20,183

29,992 SEB

12 month rolling (SEK m)

56 Issues

55 Issues

65 Issues

50 Issues

34 Issues

SEK League Tables – Corporate Bonds

Nordic market lending and bond financing

73% 82%

46%60% 59%

27% 18%

54%40% 41%

2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014

Bonds

Loans

Source: Dealogic on Nordic markets

SEK 1.0bn/500m FRN/Fixed Sole Bookrunner

SEK 850m FRN Sole Bookrunner

SEK 1.0bn/500m FRN/Fixed Joint Bookrunner

SEK 2.3bn FRN Joint Bookrunner

EUR 1.250bn Fixed Joint Bookrunner

EUR 225m Fixed Joint Bookrunner

SEK 1.25bn/350m Fixed/FRN Sole Bookrunner

EUR 500m Fixed Joint Bookrunner

Green Bonds

Page 16: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Capturing the more positive business conditions

16

Deloitte/SEB Swedish CFO Survey

30

40

50

60

70

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Nordic Europe Global

1Q14 vs 1Q13 1Q14 vs 1Q 09-13 Average

Q1 ECM volume trends Q1 M&A announced volume trends

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Nordic Europe Global

1Q14 vs 1Q13 1Q14 vs 1Q 09-13 Average

Source: Dealogic Source: Dealogic

Page 17: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

17

Household non-

mortgage5%

Residential Mortgages

35%

Public Sector5%

Corporates45%

Commercial Real Estate10%

Total Nordics 60% -> 75%

Organic growth strategy protects high asset quality

Credit portfolio growth from 2007 SEK bn)

Credit portfolio, non-bank, Mar 2014 SEK 1,756bn

-8

-91

-37

-24

-10

-9

40

59

85

193

203

Other

German retail

Baltics

German commercial real estate

German residential real estate

Public administration

Shipping & Private Equity Finance

Nordic commercial real estate

Swedish retail corporate

Swedish household mortgage

Large corporates

Page 18: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Nordics continue to support high asset quality

18

0.11 0.30

0.92

0.15

-0.08

0.08 0.09 0.07

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014

(negative = reversals)

SEB Group

0.05 0.18 0.17

0.06 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.07

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014

Nordic countries

Net credit losses in % Net credit losses in %

Credit quality Loan loss ratio, Group

SEK bn

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

10

20

30

40

Q1-03

Q1-04

Q1-05

Q1-06

Q1-07

Q1-08

Q1-09

Q1-10

Q1-11

Q1-12

Q1-13

Q1-14

Non-performing loansImpaired loans netTotal bad debt coverage ratio

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Q1-03

Q1-04

Q1-05

Q1-06

Q1-07

Q1-08

Q1-09

Q1-10

Q1-11

Q1-12

Q1-13

Q1-14

Page 19: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

New capital requirements published 8 May Major Swedish banks Basel III indicative capital

16.5%

20.4%

15.4%

19.0%

15.6%

17.4%

14.5%

19.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

SEB SHB Nordea Swedbank0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Forecasted profit 2014, after expected dividend Capital requirements CET 1 Q1-14

19

Source: SFSA 8 May 2014

SEB

Page 20: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

SEB’s capital requirement According to SFSA 8 May 2014

4.5%

1.5% 0.7% 0.9%

2.0%

3.0%

0.6%

2.5%

15.7%

0.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

CET1 required CET1 available

Expected profit after dividend paid 15.6

16.5

CET1 ratio Q1 2014

• Strong capital formation

• Significantly more capital attributed to divisions to support capital rationalisation and pricing dynamics

• Revised capital target to be communicated when details clarified

20

Capital conservation bufferCountercyclical capital bufferSystemic risk bufferSystemic risks in Pillar 215 -> 25% risk weight floor on Swedish mortgagesCurrent risk weight floor on Swedish mortgagesPillar 2 excl. risk-weight floor on Swedish mortgages and systemic risksMinimum common equity Tier 1

Page 21: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Financial targets

Profitability Return on Equity

Competitive with peers - long-term aspiration of 15%

Capital Common Equity Tier 1 ratio Total capital ratio

13% 16%

TBD, alw ays compliant w ith

regulation

Dividend Pay-out ratio 40% or above of EPS

Ratings Funding access and

credibility as counterpart

Maintain credit ratings in support of competitive funding access and costs and as a viable counterpart in financial markets

Liquidity

Liquidity Coverage Ratio > 100% according to Swedish

requirements Efficiency

Nominal cost cap < SEK 22.5bn 2013 and 2014 …and 2015

2013 2014

21

Page 22: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

Going forward

Long-term customer relationships

Disciplined execution of business plan

Finalization of regulatory Swedish finish

22

Page 23: UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 · UBS Global Financial Services Conference New York, 20 May 2014 Author: Emanuelsson, Lars Created Date: 5/19/2014

The relationship bank in our part of the world

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