U. S. Coast Guard International Ice Patrol

Commander Scott RogersonInternational Ice Charting Working Group

Frascati, Italy22 October 2007

Historical Perspective toRecent (Light) Iceberg Seasons

in the North Atlantic Ocean

Outline• Brief Overview of IIP (history/mission)• Summary of 2002 & 2003 Iceberg Seasons• Summary of 2004-2006 Iceberg Seasons• Summary of 2007 Iceberg Season• Historical Perspective to 2004-2007 Seasons• Conclusions

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TITANIC

IIP’s Core Purpose: Promote safe navigation in the northwest

Atlantic Ocean when the danger of iceberg collision exists.

IIP Mission

Monitor the iceberg danger

near the Grand Banks of Newfoundland

and provide the limits of all known ice

to the maritime community.

IIP Vision

Eliminate the risk of iceberg collision.

Key IIP Metric = Icebergs South of 48N

Where icebergs pose greatest threat to most ships

Also

How many days are

icebergs a threat south of 48N in a given year?

(When did IIP begin and stop issuing

products?)

Note

Few (or no) icebergs south of

48N does not mean there are

no icebergs anywhere!

How does IIP monitor the iceberg danger near the

Grand Banks of Newfoundland?

We conduct aerial reconnaissance with USCG aircraft (out of St. John’s, Newfoundland)

HC-130H

How does IIP provide the limits of all known ice to the

maritime community?

We use a Berg Analysis & Prediction System (BAPS)…and issue Daily Products

Summary of 2002 & 2003Iceberg Seasons

• 2002– Icebergs South of 48N: 877– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 147 (19 Feb – 15 Jul)

• 2003– Icebergs South of 48N: 927– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 116 (24 Mar – 17 Jul)

Summary of 2004-2006Iceberg Seasons

• 2004– Icebergs South of 48N: 262– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 92 (27 Apr – 27 Jul)

• 2005– Icebergs South of 48N: 11– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 0

• 2006– Icebergs South of 48N: 0– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 0

Speaking of 2004…

Just one iceberg can

ruin your day!

Summary of 2007 Iceberg Season• 2007

– Icebergs South of 48N: 324– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 117 (9 Apr – 3 Aug)

 Summary of 2002 to 2007 Iceberg Seasons 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Icebergs South of 48N 877 927 262 11 0 324

Days IIP Issued Daily Products 147 116 92 0 0 117

First Product Issued 19-Feb 24-Mar 27-Apr NA NA 9-Apr

Last Product Issued 15-Jul 17-Jul 27-Jul NA NA 3-Aug

Historical Perspective(1950-2007)

How many icebergs have crossed

48N (annually) since 1950?

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Icebergs South of 48N (1950-2007)Note:

• 50% of seasons had <250 icebergs cross 48N

• Several periods with numerous light seasons

• 58-year average = 511

Conclusions

• Large interannual variability dominates the signal (for icebergs crossing 48N).

• Numerous light iceberg seasons in a row (or within a short period) is not uncommon.

• Icebergs remain a threat in the vicinity of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland (and North).

Questions?

www.uscg.mil/lantarea/iip/home.html

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Icebergs South of 48N (1900-2007)

Surface Reconnaissance Aerial Reconnaissance

Average = 472