Typology of career paths :Typology of career paths :the insertion period the insertion period

Jean-François GiretJean-François Giret

Patrick RoussetPatrick Rousset

Longitudinal career paths : the insertion Longitudinal career paths : the insertion

Longitudinal career paths and particularly during the Longitudinal career paths and particularly during the insertion and post insertion period were focused on insertion and post insertion period were focused on by a large number of studies at the Céreq (centre by a large number of studies at the Céreq (centre d’études et de recherche sur les qualifications)d’études et de recherche sur les qualifications)

In terms of contingency, calendarIn terms of contingency, calendar In terms of structures : professional sectors, initial trainingIn terms of structures : professional sectors, initial training In social terms : individuals and families characteristicsIn social terms : individuals and families characteristics In terms of policies whether national, regional, sectorialIn terms of policies whether national, regional, sectorial

The study targets defining a typology of youth career The study targets defining a typology of youth career paths during the insertion periodpaths during the insertion period

Why a typology of trajectories?Why a typology of trajectories?

Focusing on individuals with an holist perceptionFocusing on individuals with an holist perception Considering individuals in their own evolution Considering individuals in their own evolution

1.1. Referring to others.Referring to others.2.2. Referring to a general context that evolves during the period.Referring to a general context that evolves during the period.

Summarizing and visualizing trajectories Summarizing and visualizing trajectories Linking trajectories to individuals’ characteristics.Linking trajectories to individuals’ characteristics.

Diploma, gender, social origin, ethnic origin, etc.Diploma, gender, social origin, ethnic origin, etc.

Particular Objectives :Particular Objectives : Highlighting the “descending trajectories” (5%).Highlighting the “descending trajectories” (5%). Taking into account the evolution of fixed term contracts : from Taking into account the evolution of fixed term contracts : from

stepping stone function towards job insecuritystepping stone function towards job insecurity

Which hypothesis ?Which hypothesis ?

Trajectories draw individuals’ behaviors : individuals are masters Trajectories draw individuals’ behaviors : individuals are masters of their own destiny -> holist approachof their own destiny -> holist approach

Individuals are the Individuals are the inputinput The job market context : balance between supply and demand / The job market context : balance between supply and demand /

between individuals, firms and the governmentbetween individuals, firms and the government Trajectories depend on individual rationality :Trajectories depend on individual rationality :

1.1. Ensuing from one’s liberties : individuals rationality makes the Ensuing from one’s liberties : individuals rationality makes the structure of the job market (demand side)structure of the job market (demand side)

The job market structure is deduced from the typology The job market structure is deduced from the typology outputoutput 2.2. Ensuing from one’s adaptations to environmentEnsuing from one’s adaptations to environment (supply (supply

constraint)constraint) The job market structure and practices are theThe job market structure and practices are the parameters parameters that that

influence trajectories and typesinfluence trajectories and types

The DataThe Data

The « Generation 98» survey of the Céreq provides a calendar of hiring The « Generation 98» survey of the Céreq provides a calendar of hiring situations over 7 years for 16000 young people who left school in 1998. situations over 7 years for 16000 young people who left school in 1998. the monthly position indicates the status : the monthly position indicates the status :

• 5 status of employment: 5 status of employment: 11 permanent contract PCpermanent contract PC, , 22 fixed term contract fixed term contract FTCFTC, , 33 qualification contract, qualification contract, 44 state-subsidized job, state-subsidized job, 55 temping temping..

• 4 status of un-employment : 4 status of un-employment : 66 unemployment, unemployment, 77 inactivity, inactivity, 88 service service national, national, 99 studies studies..

State distribution plot

Calendar extract

The context as an input parameterThe context as an input parameter

The contracts position individuals on a job market but are also vectors of insertion/ The contracts position individuals on a job market but are also vectors of insertion/ insecurityinsecurity

In practice, firms use fixed term contracts/temping :In practice, firms use fixed term contracts/temping :1.1. as a trial period mainly with inexperienced young peopleas a trial period mainly with inexperienced young people2.2. as temporary jobs mainly for experienced young peopleas temporary jobs mainly for experienced young people

Evolution in time :Evolution in time : • One may benefit from 1 as well as 2 but not at the same period of one’s lifeOne may benefit from 1 as well as 2 but not at the same period of one’s life• In case 1, the In case 1, the Fixed Term Contract Fixed Term Contract mainly eventually leads to a mainly eventually leads to a permanent Contractpermanent Contract

unlike case 2 unlike case 2 • TheThe FTC FTC leads to a leads to a PCPC over the first 3 years and declines towards job insecurity over the first 3 years and declines towards job insecurity • TheThe FTC FTC is more insecure/secure during crisis/economic growth is more insecure/secure during crisis/economic growth• State-subsidized jobsState-subsidized jobs vary with government policies vary with government policies

Including context in parameters byIncluding context in parameters by• Establishing a distance between status -> hypothesis that the context is constant in timeEstablishing a distance between status -> hypothesis that the context is constant in time• Establishing a distance between status indexed with months -> hypothesis that the context Establishing a distance between status indexed with months -> hypothesis that the context

evolves during the periodevolves during the period

Status and stateStatus and state

The trajectory is encoded with the status The trajectory is encoded with the status • T=(T=(FTCFTC, , FTCFTC, , FTCFTC, , PCPC, , PCPC, , PCPC) , ) , FTCFTC==fixed term contract PC= fixed term contract PC=

permanent contractpermanent contract

• The The statusstatus refers to the refers to the definitiondefinition

• The The statestate refers to a refers to a functionfunction

• The situation is the state indexed with timeThe situation is the state indexed with time in order to consider the in order to consider the evolution of the function :evolution of the function :

T=(T=(FTCFTC11, , FTCFTC22, , FTCFTC33, , PCPC44, , PCPC55, , PCPC66))

Working with situations instead of state is necessary to Working with situations instead of state is necessary to measure the evolve in time of the states functionsmeasure the evolve in time of the states functions

Other methodsOther methods

Analyse des correspondances/analyse harmoniqueAnalyse des correspondances/analyse harmonique • Euclidean metricEuclidean metric ² defined simultaneously the distances between ² defined simultaneously the distances between situationssituations and and

trajectories buttrajectories but regardless of the short and long term notion (AC) regardless of the short and long term notion (AC) • Correlation between situations defines the main pathsCorrelation between situations defines the main paths but the order of the data is but the order of the data is

not considerednot considered• A HA H introduces a differentiation long/short term introduces a differentiation long/short term but not thoroughly but not thoroughly

Optimal matchingOptimal matching• Matrix of dissimilarity between states Matrix of dissimilarity between states prior to the trajectories’ distance prior to the trajectories’ distance

-> hypothesis : -> hypothesis : the context is a parameter the context is a parameter but is constantbut is constant• The metric between trajectories adds monthly elementary positions The metric between trajectories adds monthly elementary positions

independently of paths or events (no correlation in time)independently of paths or events (no correlation in time) Models of transitionsModels of transitions

• Focusing on pathsFocusing on paths• The most general exclude individuals : basic Makovian model (school)The most general exclude individuals : basic Makovian model (school)• Allow to measure the evolution of the globalAllow to measure the evolution of the global/individual /individual contextcontext• Define theoretical trajectoriesDefine theoretical trajectories• Allow to consider Allow to consider 1, several, 1, several, all steps possibly with a weighing of the stepsall steps possibly with a weighing of the steps

S1=FTC12

S2=T14

S1=FTC12 S2=T14 S’=PC24

(12,24)*s1s’

(14,24)*s2s’

(12,14)*s1s2

(14,14)*s1s2(14,12)*s2

s1

(12,12)*s1s1

S1=FTC12

S2=T14

S1=FTC12 S2=T14 S’=PC24

Metric between situationsMetric between situations

The situations are the states indexed by the months.The situations are the states indexed by the months. situations are not compared from direct paths situations are not compared from direct paths But from their profile of paths towards future situations.But from their profile of paths towards future situations. Weighing the steps : the shorter term the heavier.Weighing the steps : the shorter term the heavier.

Distance between the situations is the Distance between the situations is the 22 between their between their profiles of paths towards the future (Pprofiles of paths towards the future (PSS

S’S’).).

S1=FTC12

S2=T14

S1=FTC12 S2=T14 S’=PC24

Structure between situations Structure between situations and evolution of the job marketand evolution of the job market

Once the distance between the situations is given, one can define Once the distance between the situations is given, one can define the inertia of the situations space, the matrix of correlations and the inertia of the situations space, the matrix of correlations and principal components (Torgerson) : principal components (Torgerson) :

Principal components=principal events -> main pathsPrincipal components=principal events -> main paths

Matrix of correlations integrates perfectly the dynamic of Matrix of correlations integrates perfectly the dynamic of time.time.

1 Permanent contract2 fixed term contract4 state-subsidised work5 Temping6 unemployment

Distance between trajectoriesDistance between trajectories

Metric between trajectories is deduced from metric between Metric between trajectories is deduced from metric between situations.situations.

Technically :Technically :• Projecting trajectories on the principal events.Projecting trajectories on the principal events.• Applying Euclidean distance to the new encoded trajectories. Applying Euclidean distance to the new encoded trajectories.

In practice :In practice :• All distances are self computed.All distances are self computed.• Possibilities of using any Euclidean algorithm (clustering : Ward, k-Possibilities of using any Euclidean algorithm (clustering : Ward, k-

means, SOM, linear analysis of distances, etc.)means, SOM, linear analysis of distances, etc.)

The typology with The typology with k-meansk-means

PermanentFixed termQualificationState-SubsidisedTempingUnemploymentInactivityNational serviceStudy

The typology of the careers with SOMThe typology of the careers with SOM

SOM organizes clusters referring to the proximity in the data space on a mapSOM organizes clusters referring to the proximity in the data space on a map Units Units graphics displays : the states distributions plots characterize classes. graphics displays : the states distributions plots characterize classes.

• Neighbor classes have similar state distributions.Neighbor classes have similar state distributions.

• Proximity shows continuity in time.Proximity shows continuity in time.

Cartography of working careers paths

PermanentFixed termQualificationState-subsidisedTempingUnemploymentInactivityNational serviceStudy

A B C D E F G H I J

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10

Two levels of groupingTwo levels of grouping

The macro-class grouping (8 clusters) aggregates the micro-The macro-class grouping (8 clusters) aggregates the micro-classes (100 clusters) referring to the centroïds distance.classes (100 clusters) referring to the centroïds distance.

Loss of permanent

Permanent

TowardsPermanent

Out of permanent

micro-class grouping in macro-classes

Career paths and individuals Career paths and individuals characteristicscharacteristics

Cartography of ethnic origin

Cartography du diploma

Cartography of social origin

Cartography of gender

+ Women- High level of diploma- Father executive+ Foreign origin

Zoom on a path :Zoom on a path :fixed term-> permanent contractfixed term-> permanent contract

Column J shows the timing of the path fixed term->permanent Column J shows the timing of the path fixed term->permanent contractcontract

A B C D E F G H I J

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10

C- PC- Path fixed term->permanent ath fixed term->permanent

MM8585 Jan-00Jan-00 Jun-00Jun-00 Nov-00Nov-00 Jul-01Jul-01 Jan-02Jan-02 Sep-02Sep-02 Jun-03Jun-03

NBNB 398398 288288 285285 163163 173173 243243 248248

Delay Delay .. 55 55 88 66 88 99

FluxFlux .. 57.657.6 5757 20.420.4 2929 30.430.4 27.527.5

M85=jan-00

J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6 J7

PerspectivesPerspectives

Complementarities with the drifted Markov model Complementarities with the drifted Markov model • Two approaches of the context : global/individual Two approaches of the context : global/individual • Taking into account the context evolutionTaking into account the context evolution• Through the same object : paths and transitionsThrough the same object : paths and transitions

Perspective Perspective • Trajectories “initial training” || “insertion” Trajectories “initial training” || “insertion” • Discrimination Discrimination • Secure/insecure trajectories and working environmentSecure/insecure trajectories and working environment• Complete professional careers Complete professional careers • Missing valuesMissing values

Typology of career paths :Typology of career paths :the insertion periodthe insertion period

Description des trajectoiresDescription des trajectoiresTransitions et calendrierTransitions et calendrier

La déclaration des individus est un récit d’évènements La déclaration des individus est un récit d’évènements datés en termes de transitions et de périodes de stabilité.datés en termes de transitions et de périodes de stabilité.

Dont le calendrier est un recodage arbitraire :Dont le calendrier est un recodage arbitraire :• De la définition des 9 étatsDe la définition des 9 états

Des états hétérogènes Des états hétérogènes :: CDI=CDI+Fonctionnaire+indépendant CDI=CDI+Fonctionnaire+indépendant.. Dont l’hétérogénéité varie dans le temps : Dont l’hétérogénéité varie dans le temps : avec les proportion et la avec les proportion et la

législation (les législation (les contrats aidéscontrats aidés, , SNSN).).• De la temporalitéDe la temporalité

Le temps est découpé en séquences identiques, ici le mois.Le temps est découpé en séquences identiques, ici le mois. La formation initiale est, elle, découpée en cyclesLa formation initiale est, elle, découpée en cycles Donne du poids à la stabilité dans les classificationsDonne du poids à la stabilité dans les classifications

Dans le but d’uniformiser la source et les résultats :Dans le but d’uniformiser la source et les résultats : Contrainte : structure adaptée à tous les algorithmes.Contrainte : structure adaptée à tous les algorithmes. Le niveau de nomenclature doit-il être introduit en amont du Le niveau de nomenclature doit-il être introduit en amont du

processus d’analyse?processus d’analyse?

Données manquantes – Censure - AttritionDonnées manquantes – Censure - Attrition

Il y a deux stratégies :Il y a deux stratégies :• La dynamique temporelle de l’individu.La dynamique temporelle de l’individu.• La comparaison avec les autres.La comparaison avec les autres.

Ici, les deux sont réunis :Ici, les deux sont réunis :• Projection des situations sur les évènements principaux qui, Projection des situations sur les évènements principaux qui,

eux, recouvrent toute la période.eux, recouvrent toute la période.• Transitions mesurées à partir des données renseignées.Transitions mesurées à partir des données renseignées.

Evolution des corrélations au « CDI en juil2005 » pour : =1/(1+0.3*t) et ● =1/(1+t)