12/4/2014 Commentary: Tymoshenko’s deal sets stage for EU-Ukraine Association Agreement | GlobalPost

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/commentary/tymoshenko-european-union-ukraine-yanukovych-association-agreement 1/4

Get our Newsletter

Awards

Facebook 2 Tweet 14

GlobalPost Blogs » Commentary

Serhiy Kudelia and Taras Kuzio October 18, 2013 01:51

Tymoshenko’s deal sets stage forEU-Ukraine Association AgreementCommentary: Unpopular Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych faces hard choices.

WASHINGTON — The European Union

is set to decide whether to sign a path-

breaking Association Agreement with

Ukraine at the Eastern Partnership

summit in Vilnius in late November.

The Association Agreement would create

a framework for co-operation between

the European Union and Ukraine, a non-

EU country. If the arrangement is

successful, it could lead to EU

membership for Ukraine.

The chances of signing the agreement

received a boost from the news that

Ukraine will allow former Prime Minister

Yulia Tymoshenko, a rival of the

president currently in prison, to travel to

Germany for medical treatment.

Tymoshenko suffers problems with her

spine.

President Viktor Yanukovych is now

faced with a difficult choice. The EU has

called for Tymoshenko to be pardoned, in

addition to being released for medical treatment. If Yanukovych complies, Tymoshenko

could fully participate in Ukrainian politics and possibly run in the March 2015 presidential

election.

But Yanukovych is highly unpopular. A recent poll indicated he would lose against any of

three opposition candidates: Tymoshenko, boxing champion Vitaliy Klitschko and Arseniy

Yatseniuk.

Chatter Wires Hide Ads Connect to share and comment

HOME BREAKING NEWS BUSINESS PHOTOS VIDEO SPECIAL REPORTS MISSION REGIONS SECTIONS

43 0 57

A supporter of Ukraine's former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenkoshouts as she holds a picture of the opposition leader during a rally infront of a court in Kiev on Dec. 14, 2011. (Sergei Supinsky/AFP/GettyImages)

ENLARGE

GLOBALPOST COMMENTARY

GlobalPost Commentary section is dedicatedto bringing our audience thoughtful and informedperspectives from around the world. We welcomeyour participation. If you would like to contributeto our Commentary page, please contact BobGiles, commentary editor, by clicking on thesubmission guidelines button below.

Submission Guidelines

EDITOR'S CHOICE

As Turkey's electionsapproach, denial runs deepfor Erdogan

ICC conviction of formerCongo rebel commander isa missed opportunity

American ideas onvolunteering don't resonateworldwide

12/4/2014 Commentary: Tymoshenko’s deal sets stage for EU-Ukraine Association Agreement | GlobalPost

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/commentary/tymoshenko-european-union-ukraine-yanukovych-association-agreement 2/4

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s economy has nosedived, with the World Bank forecasting zero growth

this year. Threats of currency devaluation and default can no longer be discounted as scare

tactics.

More from GlobalPost: Yanukovych the European?

Yanukovych and Russian President Vladimir Putin have had bad chemistry for years. The

Ukrainian leader believes he was deceived three years ago when he agreed to extend the

lease for the Sevastopol Black Sea Fleet baseto Russia and to drop Ukraine’s application for

NATO membership. Russia did not honor its part of the bargain — a gas price discount — and

today Ukraine is importing cheaper Russian gas from Germany and Central Europe.

Yanukovych could release Tymoshenko and receive the Association Agreement but face a

reinvigorated opposition in the 2015 presidential election. Or he could keep her imprisoned

and risk having to buckle under to Putin.

For the EU compromise to go ahead, President Yanukovych would need to heed the EU’s call

to overturn Tymoshenko’s 2011 conviction and seven-year sentence for “abuse of office,”

and close other criminal cases against her, including one for allegedly abetting a 1996

murder. This would require Yanukovych to reverse the entire repressive strategy he and his

loyalists have been pursuing for the last three years against the opposition.

Yanukovych has utilized his power to monopolize law enforcement and finances, which he

would be reluctant to give up. Leading members of the government come from his home

region of Donetsk. Since he came to power, his eldest son, a dentist by profession, has earned

a place in the list of Ukraine's 100 wealthiest persons.

Yanukovych sees Tymoshenko as a "protyvnyk," a mortal foe who cannot be bought and

who, if pardoned, could defeat him in 2015. He fears as president she would launch criminal

proceedings against him and his associates.

Ukrainian authorities have so far failed to show progress on conditions laid out by the EU:

electoral reform, a mayoral election in Kiev, transparent constitutional reform and an end

politically motivated convictions. Because the pose risks for Yanukovych’s personal power,

they remain stalled.

Faced with the prospect that Ukraine will not meet the conditions for signing the Association

Agreement, the EU has two viable options.

It can ignore Ukraine’s failure to meet the criteria and sign the Association Agreement

anyway. This would signal the EU’s belief in the geopolitical importance of Ukraine.

Yanukovych, however, would interpret such an action as tolerance for continued

authoritarian rule and his disregard of democratic values and norms. He could then base his

re-election campaign on having won the Association Agreement without having to introduce

changes to his authoritarian policies.

Or, the EU could withhold the agreement until Yanukovych meets its benchmarks or is voted

out of office.

GlobalPost in-depth series: Eastern Europe looks west

A change in EU strategy toward Ukraine could be effective in the following ways.

First, the EU would make clear to Ukrainian citizens that the Association Agreement remains

on the table and would be signed once the main conditions are met. This could turn the 2015

election into a referendum on Ukraine’s future course.

Second, increased aid and training for Ukrainian civil society, mass media, aid organizations

and human rights groups would ensure greater democratic control in elections and encourage

Ukrainians to force the country’s elites to be responsible for their actions.

MOST SHARED

31 REASONS WESHOULD ALL BE LIVINGIN HONG KONG

SCIENTISTS SAYAUSTRALIA'S TONYABBOTT ISENGINEERING AN'ENVIRONMENTAL TRAINWRECK'

THIS TOUCHINGCOMMERCIAL FROMTHAILAND WILL INSPIREYOU TO BE KINDER(AND MAYBE MAKE YOUCRY)

VIETNAM ISSENTENCING CORRUPTBANKERS TO DEATH, BYFIRING SQUAD

THIS IS THE BIGGESTSWARM OFGENETICALLY MODIFIEDMOSQUITOES EVER SETFREE

MOST COMMENTED

31 REASONS WE

SHOULD ALL BE LIVING

IN HONG KONG

12/4/2014 Commentary: Tymoshenko’s deal sets stage for EU-Ukraine Association Agreement | GlobalPost

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/commentary/tymoshenko-european-union-ukraine-yanukovych-association-agreement 3/4

Third, banning visas for select Ukrainian officials involved in political repression would

deprive them of travel to their favorite places in Europe.

President Yanukovych has one month, before the Vilnius summit, to implement key EU

benchmarks and pardon Tymoshenko. The ball is now firmly in his court, but time is running

out.

Serhiy Kudelia is assistant professor of political science, Baylor University. Taras Kuzio is a

Toronto-based research associate at the Centre for Political and Regional Studies,

University of Alberta in Canada.

http://w w w .gl obal post.com/di spatches/gl obal post-bl ogs/commentar y /ty moshenk o-eur opean-uni on-uk r ai ne-y anuk ov y ch-associ ati on-

agr eement

ADVERTISEMENT

A Long Time Product TesterRevels the Secrets toGetting FREE Products FromCompanies.

Avoid Bankrupting YourFamily and Destroying TheirFuture With These SimpleTips on Life Insurance

Next Gen solutions forshocking muscle gains

Follow these simple tips tolose weight and look great!

Essential Tricks to Help YouRetire Early and With MoreMoney.

These are the tips yourbank doesn't want you toknow. Save Thousands inCredit Card Fees

How to lose weight fast andkeep it off!

How to build muscle fast.

Trending Articles and Offers

.

Photo 1 of 22

FEATURED SLIDESHOW(PHOTOS): Women in combat, at home and abroad (PHOTOS)

On the news that Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's lifted the military ban on women in combat, GlobalPost took a look

at women's wartime roles around the world.

MILITIA MEMBERS,

ULTRA-CONSERVATIVESRALLY TO CAUSE OF

NEVADA RANCHER

JAPAN’S BIGGEST POPSTAR RIGHT NOW IS A

FETISHIZED HOLOGRAM

TURNS OUT VALERIALUKYANOVA, UKRAINE'S

HUMAN BARBIE DOLL, IS

KIND OF A RACIST

LUNATIC

SCIENTISTS SAYAUSTRALIA'S TONY

ABBOTT IS ENGINEERING

AN 'ENVIRONMENTAL

TRAIN WRECK'

12/4/2014 Commentary: Tymoshenko’s deal sets stage for EU-Ukraine Association Agreement | GlobalPost

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/commentary/tymoshenko-european-union-ukraine-yanukovych-association-agreement 4/4

Copyright 2014 GlobalPost – International News

Female Afghan National Police cadets train at the shooting range of the Kabul Police Academy on November 14, 2012in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Kabul police academy graduates 500 male officers each year, after 4 years of training, andaround 30 women after 6 months of training. - [Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images]

0 Comments RSS | Subscribe

Post a new comment

Login

Post

2014 Natural Gas Forecastenergyandcapital.com/Natural_Gas

The Era Of Cheap Gas Is Here Free Report. It's Time To Get In.

WORLD NEWS HOME EVERYDAY LIFE WIRES ARCHIVES SYNDICATION ADVERTISING SITE MAP CONTACT TERMS CHATTER