TVS Motor Company, 1Q FY 2014

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    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Y/E March (Standalone `cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq)Net Sales 1,760 1,849 (4.8) 1,775 (0.8)EBITDA 98 108 (8.4) 94 5.0

    Adj. EBITDA margin (%) 5.6 5.8 (22)bp 5.3 31bp

    Adj. PAT 52 51 1.5 58 (10.8)Source: Company, Angel Research

    TVS Motor Company (TVSL) reported a muted set of results for 1QFY2014, which

    were broadly in-line with our estimates. The net average realization, however,

    posted a better-than-expected growth of 2.3% qoq aided by higher share of

    three-wheelers and also due to better realization on the exports front. The

    company has been impacted the most by the ongoing slowdown in thetwo-wheeler industry which has led to a significant erosion in its market share in

    the domestic scooter (down ~500bp to 14.5%) and motorcycle (down ~70bp to

    5.5%) segments in FY2013. Going ahead, we expect the operating environment to

    remain challenging for TVSL in FY2014 as well given the weak demand scenario.

    Nevertheless, we expect the companys volumes (key to improvement in operating

    performance) to benefit from the new launches/refreshes that are lined up in

    FY2014 (new scooter, upgraded Scooty and Star City). Further, the

    higher margin three-wheeler segment which has been recording robust

    performance on the back of exports is also expected to benefit from the opening

    up of new permits in Maharashtra and Delhi. Additionally, TVSL has received the

    boards approval to divest majority stake (holds 94.5% stake) in its subsidiary, TVS

    Energy Ltd, which is expected to enable the company to lower its debt burden and

    boost its profitability. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.Broadly in-line performance for 1QFY2014: The top-line posted a decline of4.8% yoy to `1,760cr on the back of the 4.7% yoy decline in total volumes. The

    volumes continue to be impacted by the slowdown in two-wheeler industry amid

    rising competition. Three-wheelers however, posted a strong growth of 89.8%

    yoy driven by impressive exports performance. On the operating front, the

    EBITDA margin remained stable at 5.6% as the benefits of decline in raw-

    material prices were offset by increase in employee costs (due to salary hikes)

    and other expenditure (due to higher marketing spends and increase in power

    and distribution expenses). Net profit stood at `52cr (a growth of 1.5% yoy) and

    was aided by a 70.3% increase in other income and 57.8% decline in interest

    expense.Outlook and valuation: At `31, TVSL is trading at 5.3x FY2015E earnings. Wemaintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `36.Key financials (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 7,142 7,065 7,659 8,528% chg 13.6 (1.1) 8.4 11.3

    Adj. net Profit 249 207 232 282% chg 25.3 (16.8) 11.9 21.9

    EBITDA (%) 6.6 5.8 6.0 6.2

    EPS (`) 5.2 4.4 4.9 5.9P/E (x) 6.0 12.9 6.5 5.3

    P/BV (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9RoE (%) 22.9 17.3 17.8 18.9

    RoCE (%) 18.5 14.1 16.6 18.6

    EV/Sales (x) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

    EV/EBITDA (x) 2.7 2.8 2.1 1.3

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 8, 2013

    ACCUMULATECMP `31

    Target Price `36

    Investment Period 12 Months

    Stock Info

    Sector

    Bloomberg Code

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 57.4

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls 22.7

    FII / NRIs / OCBs 3.0

    Indian Public / Others 16.9

    Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex (2.8) 6.8 3.6

    TVS Motor (23.6) (17.9) (53.5)

    Automobile

    Avg. Daily Volume

    Market Cap (`cr)

    Beta

    52 Week High / Low

    Net Debt (`cr) 528

    Face Value (`)

    BSE Sensex

    Nifty

    Reuters Code

    1.0

    18,789

    5,999

    TVSM.BO

    TVSL@IN

    1,494

    0.8

    50/28

    217,341

    Yaresh Kothari022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844

    [email protected]

    TVS Motor CompanyPerformance Highlights

    1QFY2014 Result Update | Automobile

    August 10, 2013

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    TVS Motor Company | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    August 10, 2013 2

    Exhibit 1:Quarterly financial performance (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Net Sales 1,760 1,849 (4.8) 1,775 (0.8) 7,065 7,142 (1.1)Consumption of RM 1,191 1,303 (8.6) 1,200 (0.8) 4,945 5,117 (3.4)

    (% of Sales) 67.6 70.5 67.6 70.0 71.7

    Staff Costs 113 102 10.4 93 21.8 407 370 10.0

    (% of Sales) 6.4 5.5 5.2 5.8 5.2

    Purchase of goods 61 58 5.9 69 (11.2) 151 144 5.3

    (% of Sales) 3.5 3.1 3.9 2.1 2.0

    Other Expenses 297 278 6.7 320 (7.1) 1,152 1,041 10.7

    (% of Sales) 16.9 15.1 18.0 16.3 14.6

    Total Expenditure 1,662 1,742 (4.6) 1,681 (1.2) 6,656 6,672 (0.2)Operating Profit 98 108 (8.4) 94 5.0 409 469 (12.9)OPM (%) 5.6 5.8 5.3 5.8 6.6

    Interest 7 15 (57.8) 6 17.4 48 57 (15.9)

    Depreciation 31 31 1.5 35 (9.4) 130 118 11.0Other Income 9 5 70.3 10 (11) 24 22 9.8

    PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 69 66 4.4 63 9.4 254 316 (19.6)Extr. Income/(Expense) - - - (91) - (91) - -

    PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 69 66 4.4 (28) (349.3) 164 316 (48.3)(% of Sales) 3.9 3.6 (1.6) 2.3 4.4

    Provision for Taxation 17 15 14.5 5 242.2 48 67 (29.4)

    (% of PBT) 24.9 22.7 (18.1) (237.3) 29.1 21.3

    Reported PAT 52 51 1.5 (33) (258.5) 116 249 (53.4)Adj PAT 52 51 1.5 58 (10.8) 207 249 (16.9)

    Adj. PATM 2.9 2.8 3.3 2.9 3.5

    Equity capital (cr) 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5

    Reported EPS (`) 1.1 1.1 1.5 (0.7) (258.5) 2.4 5.2 (53.4)Adjusted EPS (`) 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.2 (10.8) 4.4 5.2 (16.9)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:1QFY2014 Actual vs Angel estimatesY/E March (` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Net Sales 1,760 1,749 0.7EBITDA 98 100 (2.0)

    EBITDA margin (%) 5.6 5.7 (15)bp

    Adj. PAT 52 50 3.0Source: Company, Angel Research

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    TVS Motor Company | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    August 10, 2013 3

    Exhibit 3:Quarterly volume performance(unit) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Total volumes 494,430 518,755 (4.7) 509,210 (2.9) 2,032,622 2,197,017 (7.5)Domestic 422,276 454,272 (7.0) 443,248 (4.7) 1,787,033 1,909,906 (6.4)Exports 72,154 64,483 11.9 65,962 9.4 245,589 287,111 (14.5)

    MotorcyclesDomestic 140,981 142,392 (1.0) 137,707 2.4 558,468 621,722 (10.2)

    Exports 52,488 50,577 3.8 49,641 5.7 191,338 221,392 (13.6)

    Total motorcycles 193,469 192,969 0.3 187,348 3.3 749,806 843,114 (11.1)ScootersDomestic 98,429 105,366 (6.6) 93,936 4.8 424,188 497,117 (14.7)

    Exports 3,694 7,466 (50.5) 3,881 (4.8) 17,369 32,199 (46.1)

    Total scooters 102,123 112,832 (9.5) 97,817 4.4 441,557 529,316 (16.6)MopedsDomestic 180,770 203,247 (11.1) 208,502 (13.3) 788,761 776,866 1.5

    Exports 836 628 33.1 1,247 (33.0) 3,308 9,076 (63.6)

    Total mopeds 181,606 203,875 (10.9) 209,749 (13.4) 792,069 785,942 0.8Three-wheelersDomestic 2,096 3,267 (35.8) 3,103 (32.5) 15,616 14,201 10.0

    Exports 15,136 5,812 160.4 11,193 35.2 33,574 24,444 37.4

    Total three-wheelers 17,232 9,079 89.8 14,296 20.5 49,190 38,645 27.3Source: Company, Angel Research

    Top-line growth remains under pressure due to subdued volumes: TVSLs top-lineregistered a decline of 4.8% yoy (0.8% qoq) to `1,760cr, which was broadly in-linewith our expectation of `1,749cr. The top-line was impacted by a 4.7% yoy decline

    in total volumes following a 6.4% yoy decline in two-wheeler volumes which

    continue to be impacted by the slowdown in demand amid increasing competition.

    The net average realization however, posted a better-than-expected growth of

    2.3% qoq (0.3% yoy) aided by higher share of three-wheelers (3.5% vs 2.8% in

    4QFY2013 and 1.8% in 1QFY2013) and also due to better realization on the

    exports front. While motorcycle sales remained flat yoy (up 3.3% qoq); scooter and

    moped volumes posted a significant decline of 9.5% and 10.9% yoy respectively.

    The three-wheeler segment on the other hand continued its strong performance

    (up 89.8% yoy and 20.5% mom) driven by an impressive growth of 160.4% yoy in

    export volumes.

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    TVS Motor Company | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    August 10, 2013 4

    Exhibit 4:Volumes continue to remain under pressure

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 5:Net average realization up 2.3% qoq

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Top-line growth in-line with estimates

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 7:Domestic market share trend

    Source: Company, SIAM, Angel Research

    EBITDA margin remains stable at 5.6%: On the operating front, the EBITDAmargin remained stable at 5.6%, largely in-line with our expectations of 5.7%.

    While the softening of commodity prices benefitted the operating performance;

    increase in employee costs (due to salary hikes) and other expenditure impacted

    the EBITDA margins adversely. Other expenditure surged 6.7% yoy due to higher

    marketing spends and increase in power and distribution expenses; however, it

    declined 7.1% sequentially led by cost control initiatives. Employee expenditure too

    surged by 10.4% yoy due to annual salary hikes. Raw-material expenditure on the

    other hand declined 8% yoy (1.4% qoq) on account of softening of commodity

    prices.

    The Management expects to benefit from the softening commodity prices going

    ahead; however, other expenditure is likely to remain at higher levels given the

    weak domestic demand scenario and increasing competition which would

    necessitate higher promotional expenditure.

    535,0

    08

    604,2

    26

    529,6

    81

    528,1

    02

    518,7

    55

    485,9

    23

    518,3

    57

    509,2

    10

    494,4

    30

    15.3 15.1

    1.1 1.7

    (3.0)

    (19.6)

    (2.1) (3.6) (4.7)

    (25.0)

    (20.0)

    (15.0)

    (10.0)

    (5.0)

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    0

    100,000

    200,000

    300,000

    400,000

    500,000

    600,000

    700,000

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    1QFY14

    (%)(units) Total volume yoy growth (RHS)

    31,9

    11

    32,3

    00

    32,9

    60

    30,5

    41

    35,0

    98

    34,1

    96

    34,3

    44

    34,4

    09

    35,1

    91

    8.16.7 7.1

    (1.4)

    10.0

    5.9

    4.2

    12.7

    0.3

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    28,000

    29,000

    30,000

    31,000

    32,000

    33,000

    34,000

    35,000

    36,000

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    1QFY14

    (%)(`) Net average realization yoy growth ( RHS)

    1,7

    46

    1,9

    91

    1,7

    75

    1,6

    37

    1,8

    49

    1,6

    91

    1,7

    99

    1,7

    75

    1,7

    60

    25.323.2

    7.8

    0.1

    5.9

    (15.1)

    1.3

    8.4

    (4.8)

    (20.0)

    (15.0)

    (10.0)

    (5.0)

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    1QFY14

    (%)(`cr) Net sales (LHS) Net sales growth (RHS)

    20.522.9

    19.4

    15.4 15.3 16.014.2

    12.6 12.5

    6.3 6.9 5.6 5.9 5.4 5.3 5.8 5.6 5.6

    2.3 2.6 2.8 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.1 2.3 1.9

    14.3 15.2 13.5 13.6 12.8 13.1 12.6 12.9 12.0

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    1QFY14

    (%) Scooters Motor Cycles

    Three Wheelers Total Two Wheelers

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    TVS Motor Company | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    August 10, 2013 5

    Exhibit 8:EBITDA margin remains stable

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 9:Lower interest cost aids bottom-line

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Adjusted net profit aided by lower interest cost: Net profit for the quarter stood at`52cr (a growth of 1.5% yoy), in-line with our estimates of `50cr, aided by 70.3%

    increase in other income and 57.8% decline in interest expense.

    6.7 7.0 7.2 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.9 5.3 5.6

    76.9 75.9 73.2 73.7 73.6 73.6 72.8 71.5 71.1

    0.0

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    50.0

    60.070.0

    80.0

    90.0

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    1QFY14

    (%) EBITDA margin Raw material cost/sales

    59

    77

    57

    57

    51

    45

    52

    58

    52

    3.4

    3.9

    3.2

    3.5

    2.8 2.72.9 3.3 2.9

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    4.5

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    1QFY14

    (%)(`cr) Ne t prof it ( LHS) Net prof it margin (RHS)

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    TVS Motor Company | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    August 10, 2013 6

    Investment arguments

    Success of new launches key to volume growth: TVSL registered a 7.5% yoydecline in its total volumes in FY2013 due to the slowdown in

    two-wheeler demand and rising competitive intensity in the sector.

    Nonetheless, TVSL plans to launch two scooters, one motorcycle and a diesel

    three-wheeler in FY2014, and we believe the success of these new launches is

    key for the company to register volume growth going ahead. We expect the

    new launches coupled with the recent launch of Phoenix to enable TVSL to

    register a volume growth of ~6% over FY2013-15E.

    Limited room for margin expansion: The Management expects operatingmargins to remain under pressure going ahead as rising competition coupled

    with new launches would necessitate higher advertisement and promotional

    expenditure which would negate the benefits of softening commodity prices.

    We believe that will keep margins under pressure. We expect the companys

    margin to remain around 6% in FY2014/15.

    Tie-up with BMW positive in the long run: TVSL has entered into a long termco-operation agreement with BMW's motorcycle division, BMW Motorrad, to

    develop and produce new series of motorcycles that will cater to the sub 500cc

    segment. As a part of the deal, TVSL will invest EUR20mn in the collaboration,

    which is expected to introduce a new product in 2015. We see this as a

    positive development for TVSL and a step in the right direction as the

    BMW association will provide technological access to the company. The tie-up

    is also expected to help TVSL expand its presence in the premium motorcycle

    space, where it currently offers the Apache (160cc and 180cc) series. In the

    near term though, we believe that this agreement is unlikely to alter the current

    positioning of the company in the domestic motorcycle industry.

    Outlook and valuation

    The company has been impacted the most by the ongoing slowdown in the

    two-wheeler industry which has led to a significant erosion in its market share in

    the domestic scooter (down ~500bp to 14.5%) and motorcycle (down ~70bp to

    5.5%) segments in FY2013. Going ahead, we expect the operating environment to

    remain challenging for TVSL in FY2014 as well given the weak demand scenario.Nevertheless, we expect the companys volumes (key to improvement in operating

    performance) to benefit from the new launches/refreshes that are lined up in

    FY2014 (new scooter, upgradedScooty andStaR City). Further, the higher margin

    three-wheeler segment, which has been recording robust performance on the back

    of exports, is also expected to benefit from the opening up of new permits in

    Maharashtra and Delhi. Additionally, TVSL has received boards approval to divest

    majority stake (holds 94.5% stake) in its subsidiary, TVS Energy Ltd, which is

    expected to enable the company to lower its debt burden and boost profitability.

    We largely maintain our FY2014/15 volume, revenue and earnings estimates

    for TVSL. We expect the company to register a volume CAGR of ~6% over

    FY2013-15E aided by ~30% and ~6% volume CAGR in the three-wheeler and

    two-wheeler segments respectively.

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    TVS Motor Company | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    August 10, 2013 7

    Exhibit 10:Change in estimatesY/E March Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates % chg

    FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales (` cr) 7,715 8,584 7,659 8,528 (0.7) (0.7)OPM (%) 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.2 0bp 17bp

    EPS (`) 5.0 5.8 4.9 5.9 (2.0) 2.6Source: Company, Angel Research

    At the current market price of `31, TVSL is trading at 5.3x FY2015E earnings. Wemaintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `36.

    Exhibit 11:Key assumptionsY/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ETotal volume (units) 1,536,895 2,032,404 2,197,017 2,032,622 2,097,725 2,261,464Motorcycles 640,965 836,821 843,114 749,806 779,798 826,586Scooters 309,501 452,006 529,316 441,557 428,310 471,141

    Mopeds 571,563 703,717 785,942 792,069 815,831 881,098

    Three-Wheelers 14,866 39,860 38,645 49,190 73,785 82,639

    Change yoy (%) 16.3 32.2 8.1 (7.5) 3.2 7.8Motorcycles 1.0 30.6 0.8 (11.1) 4.0 6.0

    Scooters 25.7 46.0 17.1 (16.6) (3.0) 10.0

    Mopeds 31.2 23.1 11.7 0.8 3.0 8.0

    Three-Wheelers 205.0 168.1 (3.0) 27.3 50.0 12.0

    Domestic (units) 1,371,481 1,797,993 1,910,551 1,786,994 1,814,532 1,933,552Exports (units) 165,414 234,411 286,466 245,628 283,193 327,912

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 12:Angel vs consensus forecastAngel estimates Consensus Variation (%)FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Total op. income (` cr) 7,659 8,528 7,736 8,518 (1.0) 0.1EPS (`) 4.9 5.9 4.9 5.7 0.3 4.4

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 13:One-year forward P/E band

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 14:One-year forward P/E chart

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    0

    10

    20

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    50

    60

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    100

    Apr-03

    Mar-04

    Feb-0

    5

    Jan-0

    6

    Jan-0

    7

    Dec-0

    7

    Nov-0

    8

    Oct-09

    Oct-10

    Sep-1

    1

    Aug-1

    2

    Jul-13

    (`) CMP (`) 6x 9x 12x 15x

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    16.0

    18.020.0

    Jul-09

    Nov-0

    9

    Feb-1

    0

    Jun-1

    0

    Sep-1

    0

    Dec-1

    0

    Apr-11

    Jul-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Feb-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Apr-13

    Jul-13

    (x) One-yr forward P /E T hree-yr average P/E

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    TVS Motor Company | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    August 10, 2013 8

    Exhibit 15:One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 16:Two-wheeler stocks performance vs Sensex

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 17:Automobile - Recommendation summaryCompany Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%)

    P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY13-15E EPSFY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E CAGR (%)

    Ashok Leyland Buy 13 18 37.3 34.3 7.0 5.6 3.4 2.3 11.0 74.4

    Bajaj Auto Buy 1,784 2,099 17.7 14.9 12.7 10.2 8.3 38.9 36.5 15.3

    Hero MotoCorp Accumulate 1,851 2,048 10.7 16.6 12.6 8.5 7.3 40.1 42.1 17.5

    Maruti Suzuki Buy 1,386 1,648 18.9 14.7 12.6 6.5 5.6 14.4 14.6 17.8

    Mahindra & Mahindra Buy 864 1,103 27.7 13.6 12.2 7.2 5.9 23.2 21.8 13.8

    Tata Motors Buy 279 355 27.5 7.2 6.3 3.5 3.1 28.5 25.1 15.8

    TVS Motor Accumulate 31 36 13.3 6.5 5.3 2.1 1.3 17.8 18.9 16.8Source: Company, Angel Research

    Company background

    TVS Motor (TVSL), a flagship company of the TVS Group, is the third largest 2W

    manufacturer in India. The company is present across the motorcycles, scooters

    and mopeds segments, having a market share of ~6%, ~15% and 100%,

    respectively. The company successfully ventured into the 3W segment in FY2009

    and has garnered a market share of 6.6% as of March 31, 2013. The company

    has three manufacturing facilities in India, located at Hosur (Tamil Nadu), Mysore

    (Karnataka) and Solan (Himachal Pradesh) with 2W and 3W capacity of 2.75mn

    and 75,000 units, respectively. TVSL is also the second largest exporter oftwo-wheelers in the country.

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    Apr-03

    Mar-04

    Jan-0

    5

    Nov-0

    5

    Sep-0

    6

    Jul-07

    Jun-0

    8

    Apr-09

    Feb-1

    0

    Dec-1

    0

    Oct-11

    Sep-1

    2

    Jul-13

    (` cr) EV (` cr) 4x 6x 8x 10x

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    Mar-08

    Sep-0

    8

    Mar-09

    Aug-0

    9

    Feb-1

    0

    Aug-1

    0

    Feb-1

    1

    Jul-11

    Jan-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Jan-1

    3

    Jul-13

    TVSL HMCL BJAUT Sensex

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    Balance sheet statement (Standalone)

    Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity share capital 24 48 48 48 48 48Reserves & surplus 842 952 1,122 1,177 1,337 1,547

    Shareholders Funds 865 999 1,169 1,225 1,384 1,595Total loans 1,003 633 715 546 446 446

    Deferred tax liability 115 96 98 93 98 98

    Other long term liabilities - - - - - -

    Long term provisions - 43 49 53 53 53

    Total Liabilities 1,983 1,771 2,031 1,917 1,981 2,191APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross block 1,909 1,972 2,154 2,251 2,363 2,480

    Less: Acc. depreciation 953 1,035 1,129 1,259 1,396 1,540

    Net Block 956 938 1,026 991 966 940Capital work-in-progress 27 57 53 56 59 62

    Goodwill - - - - - -

    Investments 739 661 931 869 930 1,069Long term loans and advances - 96 53 73 73 73

    Other noncurrent assets - - - - - -

    Current assets 965 1,106 1,078 1,129 1,273 1,487

    Cash 101 6 13 17 66 168

    Loans & advances 354 301 247 302 314 367

    Other 511 799 819 810 893 951

    Current liabilities 734 1,086 1,110 1,202 1,321 1,439

    Net current assets 231 19 (31) (73) (48) 47Misc. exp. not written off 30 - - - - -

    Total Assets 1,983 1,771 2,031 1,917 1,981 2,191

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    Cash flow statement (Standalone)

    Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 76 248 316 164 309 376

    Depreciation 103 107 118 130 137 144Change in working capital 103 (67) 63 45 29 8

    Others 112 35 33 (15) - -

    Other income (67) (36) (22) (24) (26) (29)

    Direct taxes paid 12 (54) (67) (48) (77) (94)

    Cash Flow from Operations 339 234 441 253 371 405(Inc.)/Dec. in fixed assets (30) (93) (177) (100) (115) (120)

    (Inc.)/Dec. in investments (262) 78 (270) 62 (61) (139)

    Other income 67 36 22 24 26 29

    Cash Flow from Investing (225) 20 (425) (14) (149) (231)Issue of equity - 24 - - - -

    Inc./(Dec.) in loans 97 (295) (72) (170) (100) -

    Dividend paid (Incl. Tax) 33 60 72 66 72 72

    Others (102) (218) (150) - - -

    Cash Flow from Financing 28 (428) (150) (235) (172) (72)Inc./(Dec.) in cash 142 (174) (135) 4 50 102

    Opening Cash balances 42 101 6 13 17 66Net cash credit adjustment 83 (79) (142) - - -Closing Cash balances 101 6 13 17 66 168

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    Key ratios

    Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 12.5 7.5 6.0 12.9 6.5 5.3P/CEPS 6.7 4.9 4.1 6.1 4.1 3.5

    P/BV 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9

    Dividend yield (%) 1.9 3.5 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.1

    EV/Sales 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

    EV/EBITDA 13.8 3.7 2.7 2.8 2.1 1.3

    EV / Total Assets 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3

    Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 1.9 4.1 5.2 2.4 4.9 5.9

    EPS (fully diluted) 2.5 4.2 5.2 4.4 4.9 5.9

    Cash EPS 4.7 6.4 7.7 5.2 7.8 9.0

    DPS 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3

    Book Value 18.2 21.0 24.6 25.8 29.1 33.6

    DuPont AnalysisEBIT margin 1.9 4.5 4.9 3.9 4.2 4.5

    Tax retention ratio 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8

    Asset turnover (x) 2.4 3.4 3.8 3.6 4.0 4.3

    ROIC (Post-tax) 5.2 12.3 14.6 10.1 12.7 14.8

    Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 8.8 7.0 6.7 5.4 6.1 6.8

    Leverage (x) 0.3 0.1 (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.5)

    Operating ROE 4.0 12.7 13.7 9.0 10.4 11.2

    Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 4.4 15.2 18.5 14.1 16.6 18.6

    Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 0.9 16.1 17.4 14.7 16.9 19.2

    ROE 14.3 21.3 22.9 17.3 17.8 18.9

    Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.3 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.5

    Inventory / Sales (days) 26 24 28 28 29 27

    Receivables (days) 17 14 13 14 14 14

    Payables (days) 51 49 53 57 57 56

    WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 15 4 (1) (3) (5) (5)

    Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.2 (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) (0.5)

    Net debt to EBITDA 0.9 (0.1) (0.5) (0.8) (1.2) (1.5)

    Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 1.1 3.9 6.2 5.8 8.0 9.7

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    A 10 2013 13

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    Disclosure of Interest Statement TVS Motor Company

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

    2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

    3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

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    Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

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