Turning the TideTirer Parti delaVagueGrise – HarnessingtheGreyWave

February27,2016JustineWadhawan,LiamStormonth&ZoeSoper

Overview

ContextandPolicyIssues

Objectives

RecommendationandAlternatives

ImplementationStrategy

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StarkRealities 3

Projected Provincial Expenditures on Health and Pensions as a Percentage of GDP

Source: Conference Board of Canada, 2010

Estimate of Annual Total Government Health Expenditure Per Capita, By Age, Canada, 2012

Source: Canadian Institute for Health Information, 2015

GrowingConcerns

By2035,oneinfourCanadianswillbeovertheageof65

Asthepopulationages,criticalchallengesemerge:

• Healthcareexpenditureswilldoubleoverthenext20years• Rapidincreaseindemandforserviceswillfurtherstrainhealthcaresystems

• Significantrevenuelossesfromshrinkingworkingagepopulation• Provisionofhigh-qualitygovernmentserviceswillbecompromised• Pensionplansandotherentitlementswillbeunsustainable

• Reducedratesofeconomicgrowth• AnnualnationalGDPgrowthpredictedtodropfrom2%to1.5%,withOntarioandQuébectoexperiencegrowthratesbelowthenationalaverage

• Deterioratingqualityoflife• Rateofseniorslivinginpovertytripledfrom1995to2012,trendislikelytocontinue

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KeyGovernmentActionSoFar 5

Federal

CanadaPensionPlan

(CPP)

OldAgeSecurity(OAS)

GuaranteedIncome

Supplement(GIS)

Ontario

OntarioRetirementPension

Plan(ORPP)

AgingatHomeStrategy

Taxandfinancialaidprograms

Québec

QuébecPension

Plan(QPP)

AgingandLiving

TogetherStrategy

Taxcreditsforhomesupport

PolicyIssueandNecessaryResponse

• Current process limited in its ability to address interrelated nature of issues, compromising the sustainability of services and programs

• Ontario and Québec can leverage momentum to transform approach to aging population

• Creating a sustainable system requires collaboration across sectors

• Long-term strategies should capitalize on opportunities associated with retirement of Baby Boomers

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FracturedPolicyResponses

Short-TermPriorities

PolicyDevelopment

Silos

SingleIssueFocus

Objectives 7

Processwillbedesignedtointroducechangeinameaningfulandimpactfulway

Outcomeswillfocusonconcreteactionsoractivitiesthatdeliverresults

ProcesseswillbuildonspiritofOntario-Québecleadershiptoemploya‘forward-thinking’andinnovativeapproachtoreducepolicygaps

Policieswillbefundedandimplementedinafinanciallysustainablemanner

Transformative

Action-Oriented

ProactiveLeadership

Sustainable

Recommendation:CoalitionoftheWilling

• OntarioandQuébecprovideleadershipforestablishmentofcoalition• PremierswillleadrecruitmenteffortswithastrongfocusonsecuringFederalparticipation

• Oncemembershipisestablished,commissioncreatedtoundertakepublicengagementprocess

• Commissionwillretainprofessionalengagementservicestoensureefficientandeffectiveprocess

• Commissionfacilitatesengagementanddeliberation,providesperiodicupdatestoPremiers

• Throughthisprocess,responsibilityforpolicyimplementationissharedbyallordersofgovernment,privatesectorserviceproviders,non-profitorganizationsandcitizens

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QuébecandOntarioPremiersmeettoestablishgoals,

leveragingexistingforums,recruitcoalitionofthewilling

Coalitionestablishesacommissiontoleadmulti-sectorengagement,pilot

projectsanddevelopreport

Reporttabledwithrecommendationsforallsectors,commission

overseesimplementation

Commission-LedEngagementModel 9

Phase1Public Dialogue• Inputissoughtfromdiversegroupsincludingcitizengroups,privatesectorandnon-profitorganizations

• Submissionscollectedthroughevents,electronically,andthroughinvolvementofkeyinnovationhubs

Phase2Deliberation• Roundtableswithmulti-sectorrepresentationdeliberateonPhase1submissions

• Emphasisplacedoncreativesolutions,uniquepartnerships

• Participantsareprovidedwithallkeybackgroundresearchforinformeddecision-making

Phase3FirstMinistersForum• Commissiontablesreportproducedfromdeliberationtocoalition

• FirstMinistersprovideinput,finalizerecommendations

• Finalreportreleasedwithactionablerecommendationsforallsectors

RecommendationConsiderations

• Deliberativeengagementistransformative• Horizontalpolicydevelopmentwillfundamentallyalterthepoliciesimplemented

• Processisaction-oriented• Engagementwillhaveconcretetimelines,recommendationstabledwithinayear• Commissionwillbefundedtopilotprojectstoencouragebroaderadoption

• QuébecandOntariowillprovideleadership• Throughtheestablishmentofthecoalitionandthroughengagement

• Broadmulti-sectorengagementmaximizessustainability• Collaborationwillbetterutilizepre-existingresourcesdedicatedtoserviceprovision

• Upfrontcostofestimated$50millionover4years• Fundsforengagementoverfirstyear,ongoingreporting,andpilotprojects

• Stakeholderreactionlikelytobepositiveduetohigh-quality,responsiveengagement

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SeniorsattheTable

OntarioandQuébecwilljointlysponsortheOurGoldenYears Report

• HearingswillbejointlyorganizedbetweentheOntarioSeniors’SecretariatandQuébecMinistryofFamilies,SeniorsandtheStatusofWomenandheldatbothprovinciallegislatures

• Hearingswillprovidetheopportunityforseniorstovoicetheirlivedexperience,identifygaps,andmakerecommendationsforchange

• Productionofthereporttobeundertakenbyseniorswithoversightfromprovincialbodies

• Hearingsandreportusedtotransformperceptionofseniors,enhancingtheirvoiceinpolicy

• Actiontobeconcurrentwithcommissionengagementtoprovideopportunitytoincreasemomentumforpolicychange

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AlternativeOptionsConsidered

Alternative1:ConsensusApproach

Alternative2:BilateralInitiative

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Alternative1:ConsensusApproach

• QuébecandOntarioco-chairFirstMinisters’MeetingwithFederalGovernment

• RenegotiationofHealthAccordin2017willbeinformedbyFramework

• PremiersimplementNationalAgingStrategyinpartnershipwithFederalGovernment

• Stakeholderreactionlikelytobeprimarilypositive

• AbilityforQuébecandOntariotoleaddiscussionmaybemitigated

• Cooperationamongprovinceswillbenecessarytoachieveconsensus,transformationcouldbepiecemeal

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QuébecandOntarioPremiersrequestFirstMinisters’Meeting

onAgingConsensusinformsgoalsandFrameworkonAging

FirstMinistersadoptandimplementNationalAging

Strategy

Alternative2:BilateralInitiative

• MemorandumofUnderstandingtofocusonkeyissues,suchas:

• Pensions,labourmobility,healthcareandhousing

• Creativeengagementintheformofa“HarnessingtheGreyWaveSummit”policyhack-a-thon

• QuébecandOntariotoannouncerespectiveAgingActionPlans

• Manystakeholdersunlikelytobesatisfiedwithanythinglessthannationalstrategy

• Transformativepolicydifficulttofinancewithoutfederalgovernmentmoney

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JointCabinetestablishesMemorandumof

UnderstandingandSteeringCommitteeonAging

HarnessingtheGreyWaveSummittoshowcasecreativepolicyoptions

Long-termAgingActionPlansputinplaceinboth

provinces

ImplementationTimeline- Recommendation 15

ShortTerm[6-12months]

• QuébecandOntariomeettodevelopgoalsandobjectives

• Identificationofforumstorecruitcoalitionofthewillingmembers

• Finalizemembershipofcoalitionandhostfirstmeeting

• OurGoldenYearsactivitiescarriedout

MediumTerm[1- 2years]

• EstablishCommission

• OurGoldenYearsReportreleased

• CommissionupdatesonPhase1and2proceedings

• Pilotprogramsinitiatedbycommission

• ReportreleasedatendofPhase3

LongTerm[2+Years]

• Commissiontracksimplementation

• Recommendationsmadepublic

• Bestpracticesmadeavailabletonon-memberprovinces

• UpdatestoFirstMinistersandpublicvia“ReportCardonAgingInitiatives”

RiskManagementStrategy- Recommendation

Risk Level ManagementStrategy

Sectorengagement processmaybeperceivedastoocomplex

High • Commissionretainscitizenengagementprofessionals• Strong leadershipstreamlinestheprocess• Allparticipantsprovidedwithqualitybackground

material

Specific provincial-territorialissuesmaybeoverlooked

Medium • Coalitionprovidesmemberswithopportunitytohighlighttheirviews

• Commissionreports willkeepcoalitionapprisedofdevelopments

• Choiceofimplementationislefttoeachjurisdiction

Currentcohort ofseniorsmaynotfeeltransformationalchange

Low • Currentcohortisbeingaskedforinput• Real risksareprimarilyinthelongterm

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Determinationofrisklevelisbasedonacombinationoflikelihoodandpotentialimpact

CommunicationsStrategy

KeyMessaging• Together,QuébecandOntarioaretransforminghowweserveouragingpopulation• ProvincesandTerritoriesareinnovatingthewaywedobusiness,toleveragetheexperienceandexpertiseofourBabyBoomersandmaximizegrowthpotential

• ThecoalitionisworkingtogetherwithseniorsandstakeholderstoensurethatgovernmentactionsrespondtotherealneedsofCanadians

Events• MultiplepressconferencesandechoannouncementsfromformationoftheCoalitionto

conclusionofforum• Launchceremoniesforpilotprojects• Pressconferencesaroundannualreportcardupdates• JointhearingsforOurGoldenYears Report,pressconferencewithCabinetMinisters

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NextSteps

Pendingapprovaloftherecommendedoption:

1. OntarioandQuébecMinistriesofIntergovernmentalAffairswilljointlydevelopanimplementationplan,includingaprojectteamtoleadthisinitiative

2. Finalizecostingmethodologyandidentifyfinancialimplications3. Developacommunicationsworkplan,includingacoordinatedoutreach

strategytoidentifycoalitionmembers4. Prepareareportbackforfurtherconsideration5. Proceedwithformalapprovalprocess

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Appendices

Appendix1:EvaluationMatrix 20

Criterion RecommendedAlternative

Alternative 1 Alternative 2

Transformative 5 4 3

Action-Oriented 5 3 5

ProactiveLeadership 5 3 5

Sustainable 5 3 4

UpfrontCost 4 3 4

StakeholderReaction 5 4 3

Total 29 20 24

Appendix2:CurrentandProjectedPopulationofSeniors 21

Appendix3:HighlightsfromInterjurisdictionalScan

ProvincialProjectionsonAgingandSeniorsandCurrentInitiatives

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BritishColumbia

Proportionofpopulationaged 65 andoverbetween 24%to 27%by2038

- Seniors'ActionPlan - Premier'sCouncilonAging- SeniorsBCWebForum - Age-FriendlyBC

NovaScotia

Proportionofpopulationaged65andoverexpectedtosurpass 30%by2038

- StrategyforPositiveAging - ElderAbuseStrategy- DepartmentofSeniors - SeniorSafetyGrant

Nunavut Proportionofpopulationaged65andovertobeapproximately9%by2038

- JointElderandYouthPrograms - SeniorAdditionalAssistancePlan- 2010-2014EldersStrategy - IqaluktuutiaqEldersMentorshipProgram

Alberta Proportionofpopulationaged65andoveranticipatedtobelessthan20%by 2038

- AffordableSupportiveLivingInitiative - GreyMattersConference- AlbertaSeniorsBenefitProgram - Seniors'Week

Appendix4:InformationFlowThroughCommission 23

CoalitionMembersFirstMinisters

CommissionCoalitionrepresentativesProfessionalengagement

facilitators

PrivateSectorProfessionalorganizationsServiceprovidersBusinessesandassociations

PublicSeniorsCaregiversCitizenGroups

Non-ProfitSectorAdvocacygroupsCharitiesServiceproviders

InnovationHubsThinkTanksAcademicinstitutions