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Tufts University
Waterand
People
Richard M. VogelTufts UniversityMedford, MA
Environmental StudiesLunch & Learn
Oct 20, 2011
Tufts University
Outline
Emerging Issues:Water and People: Some Big ProblemsWater Supply – Boston Metro RegionWater and UrbanizationWater and ClimateWater and FoodWater and Human Water Use
Tufts University
Outline
Emerging Issues:
Water and People: An Introto some big problems
Water and HealthWater Supply – NYC and BostonWater and UrbanizationWater and ClimateWater and FoodWater and Human Water Use
Tufts University
Water and People: Why do people know so little about water?
Hydrologic science is an interdisciplinary
science which involves the interfaces among
earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences.
Hydrology is a geoscience
Why isn‟t it taught like geology, biology, meteorology, or chemistry?
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Water Problems are Human Problems
Global Population Growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
YEAR (AD)
Popu
latio
n in
Bill
ions
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Water Problems Result From Human Influences and they are Ramping Up
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Water Pollution
Water and People
and Water Scarcity
Are the two biggest water challenges of the 21st
Century
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Today, 1 out of 6 people, more than a billion
Water and People
Suffer from inadequate access to safe freshwater
Tufts University
Tufts University
Water and Poverty
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Irrigation can lift rural poor out of poverty
Inc
ome p
er
capita Average
income levels & irrigation intensity in India
From U. Lall, Columbia Univ
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Outline
Emerging Issues:Water and People
Water Supply – BostonWater and UrbanizationWater and ClimateWater and FoodWater and Human Water Use
Tufts University
Wet History of Boston1630 – Boston Settled, water supply from
spring near Boston Common
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A Real Celebration!US Cities Devoted Huge Resources to Clean Water
When water from Lake Cochituate flowed into the Frog Pond on Boston Common in 1848, the dedication ceremony drew 100,000
people and was declared a public holiday
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Panoramic View of Ruins of BostonsGreat Fire of 1872
Brought fire steamers to Boston fromPortsmouth, N.H.
AndLed to Wachusett/Quabbin Reservoir
System
The Mystic Lakes System
• By 1870, Boston’s population soared to 200,000
• In 1870 the Mystic Lakes System in Winchester, Medford and Arlington was added to the Boston System
Addition of Mystic Lakes System
In 1870, the Mystic Lakes system was connected to distribution system at Tufts University.
Old reservoir on Tufts hill, lined with brick.
Old bricks used to construct Bray Hall on Boston Ave using student labor. West Hall
Dorm in 1890Gate House on Reservoir
Mystic Reservoir at Tufts College
Reservoir and GatehouseAt Tufts, 1898. Reservoir was called the REZ
Mystic Reservoir at Tufts College
WestHallDormBuilt in1871
BallouHallBuilt1850
Mystic Reservoir at Tufts College
Parking Lot Which Replaced the REZ
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Pumphouse at Chestnut Hill
Water Sources in 1895, Lake Cochituate, Sudbury Reservoirs, Mystic Lakes
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Growth in Metro Boston Water Supply System
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Lake C
ochitu
ate
Mys
tic L
akes
Sudbury
Syste
m
Wach
usett
Res
ervoir
Quab
bin R
eserv
oir
1848 1870 1872 1908 19460
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Lake C
ochitu
ate
Mys
tic L
akes
Sudbury
Syste
m
Wach
usett
Res
ervoir
Quab
bin R
eserv
oir
Syst
em Y
ield
inM
illio
ns o
f Gal
lons
per
Day
Tufts University
Growth in Water Supply System
Tufts University
NYCWater Supply
System
Today
Quabbin Reservoir
You Couldn’t DoIt Today
4 towns removed and legally dissolved
39 square miles flooded
2,000 residents relocated
1,000 buildings destroyed
34 cemeteries relocated
81,000 acres purchased for $9.6 million
$53 million total project costs
26 lives lost during construction
Original Towns
Eliminatedby
Quabbin
Moving Homes to Build Quabbin
Town Hall from Enfield still stands, but town is now gone
Old Cemeteries had to be moved
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Quabbin Park Cemetery 1
Quabbin Park Cemetery
First water released from Winsor Dam
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Early Projections of Water Demand Were Upward Biased
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1895 Projections Led to Evaluation of Alternatives
Demand Exceeds “Safe” Yield in 1969
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History of Supply and DemandAgain 1985 Projections Leads to Future Studies
Water Supply Study Commissioned in 1985 to Evaluate Alternatives to Increase Yield
Again, History repeats itself
Demand Management, Conservation and Leak Repair Worked!
Demand was reduced from: 336 in 1987 to 256 mgd in 1997
MWRA Annual Average System Demand
100
150
200
250
300
350
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
MG
D
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Outline
Emerging Issues:Water and PeopleWater Supply – NYC and Boston
Water and UrbanizationWater and ClimateWater and FoodWater and Human Water Use
Tufts University
Water and Urbanization
Increased U.S. Flood damages 1932-1997 adjusted to 1995 dollars
Are increased damages due to:
Climate Change?
Urbanization?
Agriculture?
All three?
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A Probability Report
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We live in a watershed and we are part of the problem
Land Management is Water Management
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Urbanization IncreasesFlows in Rivers and Streams
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Aberjona River, Massachusetts24 sq. mi. urban watershed near Tufts
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Like Clockwork, and Like Urbanization, Annual Maximum Flood Discharges are
steadily increasing
1940-2009
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It is not only floods on Aberjona River which are influenced by urbanization.
0.1
1
10
100
1000
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Exceedance Probability
Dai
ly S
trea
mflo
w (c
fs)
1940s-1950s
1960s-1970s
1980s-1990s
ALLFlows Increased
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One Partial Remedy:Low Impact Development
No curbsBioretentionNo pipesNo manholes
Mimics Nature
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How can we make residential developments function hydrologically like natural systems?
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High Impact Development
•Removal of trees vegetation
•Soil erosion•Impervious
areas•Result: Stormwater pipes and detention pond
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STREAM CHANNEL - FLOODPLAIN
BANKFULL CHANNEL
INSTREAM CHANNELDIVERSITY
THALWEG
STREAM-SIDEVEGETATION
LOW FLOWCHANNEL
FEATURES OF A NATURAL CHANNEL
RIPARIANWETLAND BEDROCK
Point Bar
Riffle
Pool
RIFFLE - POOL SYSTEM
Source: Richard T. Grost, Fisheries cover photo January 2001
STEELHEAD TROUT – EGGS AND ALEVINS
CONCRETE LINED TRAPEZOIDAL FLOOD CONTROL CHANNELTROUT BROOK- WEST HARTFORD, CT
Low Flow Channel
Bankfull Width
Floodplain
No InstreamHabitat Value
Instream Habitat &Low Flow Channel
Vegetative Cover
VEGETATION LINED FLOOD CONTROL CHANNELTROUT BROOK- WEST HARTFORD, CT
Designed by: James MacBroom
Tufts University
Hydrology - The study of precipitation, infiltration, surface runoff, streamflow rates, water storage in wetlands, detention basins,
and reservoirs, plus water use and diversions.
Engineering –The application of science and mathematics
in analysis, design, and permitting.
Ecology - The study of plants, animals, and their environment, with emphasis on aquatic systems, wetlands, and riparian
forests..
Hydraulics - The study of the stream’s water velocity, flow depth, flood elevations,
channel erosion, storm drains, culverts, bridges, and dams.
Water Quality - The study of the physical, biological, and chemical
characteristics of surface waters and groundwaters.
Socioeconomic - The study of the sociology, social relationships, economic
impacts, and their interconnections.
Fluvial Morphology - The study of the channel’s geologic origin, alignment,
slope, shape, size, sediments, and floodplains. Construction –The application of the design.
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Outline
Emerging Issues:
Water and PeopleWater Supply – NYC and BostonWater and Urbanization
Water and ClimateWater and FoodWater and Human Water Use
Tufts University
Projections of Global Surface Warming
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Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere
Water and Climate
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From
IPCC
Nov
2007
“Today the time for doubt has passed. The IPCC has unequivocally affirmed the warming of our climate system, and linked it directly to human activity.” (UN Secretary General, November 2007)
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The answer is generally
yes.
Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global
temperatures?
A Gallop Poll
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Shrinking of Arctic Sea Ice (from Epstein , 2008)
Extentof IceCover
(millionsof sq. mi)
1978 Year 2008
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Glacial Melt – Reduction in Long Term water storage and fluxes
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Examples of human-induced climate
change are now apparent on every
continent
National Park Service
NA
SA
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
US
GS
UK.govNA
SA
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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change
Jerry and Marcy Monkman
Wetland Inundation
andLoss
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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change
Dr. Norbert Psuty
-More coastal erosion
Brandt Beach Long Beach Island, NJ
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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change
AP Photo/Michael Dwyer
Higher sea levels and more frequent flooding
Winthrop, MA
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Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions Scenario
Coastal Flooding in Boston under Present and High Emission Sea Levels
Source: NECIA/UCS 2007
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Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions Scenario
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
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New York City : Today‟s 100-Year Flood Could Occur Every 10 Years
under the High-Emissions Scenarios
Credit:: Applied Science Associates, Inc.. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.
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Outline
Emerging Issues:
Water and PeopleWater Supply – NYC and BostonWater and UrbanizationWater and Climate
Water and FoodWater and Human Water Use
Tufts University
From water shortage to food shortage
“If present trends continue, the livelihoods of one third of the world’s population will be affected by water scarcity by 2025.
We could be facing annual losses equivalent to the entire grain crops of India and the US combined.”
Frank Rijsberman, Director General
International Water Management Institute 2003
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Water and Food
Kenya 1998-2000 drought:$2.4 billion in losses
Every 5 seconds a child younger than ten dies of
hunger
Why are Food and Water Related?
Water Scarcity and Food Scarcity are Related
The driving forces are similar:
•Growing population•Dietary changes•Urbanization•Conflicting needs for water•Climate change impacts•Biofuel production
Tufts University
Outline
Emerging Issues:
Water and PeopleWater Supply – NYC and BostonWater and UrbanizationWater and ClimateWater and Food
Water and Human Water Use
Tufts University
Balancing Water for Humans and
Nature, 2004
by M. Falkenmarkand J. Rockström
Blue Water – Water in rivers and lakes
Green Water – Vertical fluxes such as evapotranspiration
(evapotranspiration = evaporation and transpiration)
Blue versus Green Water
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Blue-Green Water
65 % of the continental precipitation is green water,
supporting terrestrial ecosystems,
35 % is blue water, supporting societal uses and aquatic
ecosystems.
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Traditionally water engineers have only managed blue water
A major future challenge involvesmanaging green water
using:rainwater collection
managing crop evapotranspirationland use management
etc
Blue-Green Water
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Blue Water – Green Water and Food
•80% of global cropland is rainfed
•60-70% of worlds food is produced on rainfed land
•In sub-Saharan Africa food production depends on >95% green water
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A Blue-GreenWater Availability Index
Based on work in progress at USGS and Tufts University 2011
From Freeman and others, Tufts Unive, under review, 2011
Blue – GreenWater
Availability in Africa
260 international basins: +/- tensions: longstanding, always, growing with demand
“Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict & wars in the future.”
Kofi Annan, March 2001
Grey & Sadoff
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Water Conflicts Involve Multiple
Objectives
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And Now The Fish and Other Biota have Place at the Negotiating Table
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Human Water Use Conflicts
The Colorado River Compact, 1922
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Water and Human Water Use
2005 Headline
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The Net Impact of Dams and Human Water Use
From: Gleick, 2003,
Science,Global Freshwater
Resources: Soft Path Solutions for the 20th Century.
Colorado River Delta Runs Dry
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South Africa Water Law
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1800
1900
History of US Dam and Reservoir Construction
1950
2000
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From:Gleick, 2003,
Science,
Global Freshwater Resources: Soft Path Solutions for the 20th
Century.
Worldwide Construction of Large Reservoirs in 20th Century
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Shading denotes degree of homogenization in flow regimes due to dams
(from Poff et al. 2007, PNAS)
Dams „flatten‟ the downstreamstreamflow regime
Its Not So Simple!
The Quabbin Reservoir Tailwater Region, Just
Below the Spillway Attracts Fly Fisherman
from all over the Region!
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Dam Removal Trends in the U.S.
Total Number of Dams in US ~82,642Greater than 25 feet high
Total Number of Dams Removed: ~748
Dams Removed in 2008 64
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Dams Provide Many Benefits Including:
Water Supply Hydropower Irrigation Recreation Cooling Water And …
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Dams Also Provide Flood Protection
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Visible overuse of water
Lake AralYellow River (China) running dry on the last 100 km1972 during 15 days1996 during 133 days1997 during 226 days
Source: Ren and Walker, Environmental consequences of human activity on the Yellow River; Physical Geography 19.1998.5, pp 421-432
Rio Grande (USA/Mexico), in 2001 for the first time failed to reach the Gulf of Mexico(Economist, 2001)
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Groundwater Depletion Reduces Streamflow
River and Well Hydrographs from North China Plain(from Konikow and Kendy,”Groundwater depletion: A global problem, 2007)
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Acceleration in annual global water withdrawals: 1900–2000
From Postel, 1992
+ 1.8%
+ 2.1%
1950
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The big squeeze on global water is expected to increase as
• Populations increase
Incomes increase
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By 2025 two thirds of the people in the world are expected to live in areas of water shortage or stress.
A Global Water Crises
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Virtual Water
• Water embedded in products
• Water used in production of product or service
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Now a global issue: virtual water flowsbetween world regions (average 1997–2001)
From Yang et al. unpublished; quoted in Zehnder
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Ship Virtual Water?
1 kg of wheat takes 1,000 liters of water to produce
Exporting wheat to an arid country avoids need for water in
that country
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Bottled Water is Not a Solution
• Americans spent $11 billion on bottled water in 2006
•Manufacturing 1 bottle of water takes
• 2 bottles of water to make plastic bottle
• 3-9 bottles of water for filtration process
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Systems Modeling Methods are Needed
SW = surface water; GW= groundwater; WTP =water treatment plant; P use = potable water use; NP use = nonpotable water use; ASR = aquifer storage and recharge; and WWTP = wastewater treatment plant
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Beirut, Lebanon• Integrated water supply
optimization model• Includes wastewater disposal,
and reuse options• Considers entire anthropogenic
water cycle• Considers both potable and
nonpotable sources
WATER SOURCES, s
Desalination
Rivers
Groundwater
Conventional:
Non-conventional:
CWWTP
Rain Harvesting
USES, u
MUN
IN
AGP
AGN
WASTE SITES, w
Centralized WastewaterTreatmentPlant (CWWTP)(via sewer system)
Groundwater(via infiltration)
Consumptive use
IP
MUP
gene
ral
AdvancedTreatment
SecondaryTreatment,Disinfection
LEGEND Water use sector
Reuse path
MU=municipal, AG=agricultural, I=industry, Subscript P=potable, Subscript N=nonpotable
Potable quality flow path
Nonpotable quality (or better) flow path Wastewater flow path
Onsite treatment
To Sea
A Systems Approach to Solving Flood Problems on Aberjona River
Mean Daily Streamflow vs. Water Year
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Apr-38 Jul-46 Oct-54 Dec-62 Mar-71 May-79 Aug-87 Oct-95 Jan-04
Water Year
Mea
n D
aily
Str
eam
flow
(cfs
)D
aily Streamflow
(cfs)Aberjona river discharges are on the rise
Where Should We Site Best Management Practices on Aberjona
River to Control Downstream Flooding?
Aberjona flood,Winchester Center
2001
113
Results
Potential BMP locations BMPs
25 50 100
150 200 400
Background Model BMP Optim. Results Concl.
114
Factors Influencing BMP Placement
High CN values
Large and impervious contributing areas
Flow arrival time resonance with other hydrologic response units
Background Model BMP Optim. Results Concl.
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SummaryWe can no longer ignore anthropogenic influences on the hydrologic cycle.
Water policy, science and engineering approaches must deal with a changing hydrosphere
All water textbooks need to be rewritten to include humans and to deal with nonstationarity due to climate change, urbanization and other human impacts
Hydrologic Extremes Without People
headwatersource
headwaterno-flow
terminal flow-through
terminal sink
P P
ETSW + GW
ET
SW + GW
SW + GW
(from Weiskel, Vogel and others., 2011, in prep.)
Rocky Mountains Sahara Dessert
Mouth of Columbia River
Mono Lake, CA
Tufts University
Source-Sink Index
Weiskel, Vogel and Wolock, 2011
Sinks are rivers which lose water naturally moving downstream.
Extreme Hydrology With Humans
surcharged churned
undeveloped depleted
Hin Hin Hout
SW + GW
SW + GW
SW + GW
(from Weiskel, Vogel and others 2007)
Hout
Central Valley Aquifer
P ET
P - ET P - ET
P - ET