Cefic-LRI 12th Annual Workshop 2010 - Reduction of Uncertainty Enabling Decision MakingCefic-LRI 12th Annual Workshop 2010 - Reduction of Uncertainty Enabling Decision Making

17 and 18 November 2010 Radisson Blu Royal Hotel, Brussels17 and 18 November 2010 Radisson Blu Royal Hotel, Brussels

Qualitative uncertainty within risk and exposure

17 and 18 November 2010 Radisson Blu Royal Hotel, Brussels

Qualitative uncertainty within risk and exposure Qualitative uncertainty within risk and exposure Qualitative uncertainty within risk and exposure assessments by using TUAassessments by using TUAassessments by using TUAassessments by using TUA

Alexandre Zenié1, Vittorio Reina2 and Athanasios Arvanitis3Alexandre Zenié1, Vittorio Reina2 and Athanasios Arvanitis3Alexandre Zenié , Vittorio Reina and Athanasios Arvanitis1Joint Research Centre of the European Commission Institute for Health and Consumer Protection, Ispra (VA) ITALY – Email: alexandre.zenie@jrc.ec.europa.eu1Joint Research Centre of the European Commission Institute for Health and Consumer Protection, Ispra (VA) ITALY – Email: alexandre.zenie@jrc.ec.europa.eu

2Joint Research Centre of the European Commission Institute for Health and Consumer Protection, Ispra (VA) ITALY – Email: vittorio.reina@ec.europa.eu2Joint Research Centre of the European Commission Institute for Health and Consumer Protection, Ispra (VA) ITALY – Email: vittorio.reina@ec.europa.eu

3Joint Research Centre of the European Commission Institute for Health and Consumer Protection, Ispra (VA) ITALY – Email: athanasios.arvanitis@jrc.ec.europa.eu3Joint Research Centre of the European Commission Institute for Health and Consumer Protection, Ispra (VA) ITALY – Email: athanasios.arvanitis@jrc.ec.europa.eu

Specifying result(s)START Specifying result(s)START

Identifying uncertainty sourcesIdentifying uncertainty sources

step 1step 1

The characterisation of uncertainty within risk and The characterisation of uncertainty within risk and The characterisation of uncertainty within risk and exposure assessments includes either qualitative or exposure assessments includes either qualitative or Characterising qualitative uncertaintyexposure assessments includes either qualitative or quantitative evaluations, or a combination of both. The

Characterising qualitative uncertainty

quantitative evaluations, or a combination of both. The

approach can also be tiered; i.e., the analysis can begin approach can also be tiered; i.e., the analysis can begin Assessing the magnitude Assessing the Assessing the approach can also be tiered; i.e., the analysis can begin with a simple qualitative uncertainty characterisation

Assessing the magnitude of the influence of the

Assessing the knowledge base subjectivity of choices of

Assessing the subjectivity of choices of with a simple qualitative uncertainty characterisation of the influence of the

source on the result(s)

knowledge base

of the source

subjectivity of choices of subjectivity of choices of

the sourcewith a simple qualitative uncertainty characterisation

then progress to a complex probabilistic analysis. The source on the result(s) of the source the source

then progress to a complex probabilistic analysis. The

decision regarding the type of uncertainty decision regarding the type of uncertainty decision regarding the type of uncertainty

characterisation to perform is also informed by the step 2characterisation to perform is also informed by the step 2characterisation to perform is also informed by the intended scope of the assessment, whether the intended scope of the assessment, whether the selected analysis will provide additional information to Reporting the qualitative uncertainty characterisationselected analysis will provide additional information to Reporting the qualitative uncertainty characterisationselected analysis will provide additional information to

the overall decision regarding health protection, whether step 3the overall decision regarding health protection, whether step 3the overall decision regarding health protection, whether sufficient data is available to conduct a complex END Reviewingsufficient data is available to conduct a complex

quantitative analysis, and if time and resources are

END Reviewing

quantitative analysis, and if time and resources are quantitative analysis, and if time and resources are available for higher tier characterisations. Figure 2: Characterizing qualitative uncertaintyavailable for higher tier characterisations. Figure 2: Characterizing qualitative uncertaintyavailable for higher tier characterisations.

The primary purpose of the qualitative uncertainty The primary purpose of the qualitative uncertainty The primary purpose of the qualitative uncertainty characterisation is to identify and compare the relative characterisation is to identify and compare the relative characterisation is to identify and compare the relative

impacts that important sources of uncertainty may have impacts that important sources of uncertainty may have

on the final result(s) of the risk and exposure on the final result(s) of the risk and exposure on the final result(s) of the risk and exposure assessments (Figure 1). This approach is justified assessments (Figure 1). This approach is justified assessments (Figure 1). This approach is justified

knowing that qualitative evaluation is the common knowing that qualitative evaluation is the common denominator for all sources of uncertainty given the denominator for all sources of uncertainty given the denominator for all sources of uncertainty given the

limited data available to inform probabilistic analysis, limited data available to inform probabilistic analysis, limited data available to inform probabilistic analysis, and time and resource constraints.and time and resource constraints.

JRC developed the TUA repository of uncertainty JRC developed the TUA repository of uncertainty JRC developed the TUA repository of uncertainty analysis on the basis of WHO 2008 recommendations analysis on the basis of WHO 2008 recommendations

of three dimensions characterisation of qualitative of three dimensions characterisation of qualitative of three dimensions characterisation of qualitative

uncertainty and COT 2007 guidance. It allows sources uncertainty and COT 2007 guidance. It allows sources uncertainty and COT 2007 guidance. It allows sources of uncertainty to be specified and then scored according of uncertainty to be specified and then scored according to three different dimensions of qualitative uncertainty to three different dimensions of qualitative uncertainty to three different dimensions of qualitative uncertainty

characterisation (Figure 2).characterisation (Figure 2).characterisation (Figure 2).

Exposure Exposure Exposure ScenarioPurpose Exposure result(s)

Exposure parameter(s)

Exposure model(s)

Scenariosetting

Purpose

result(s)parameter(s)model(s)setting

Figure 3: TUA qualitative uncertainty visualization layout. Source(s) ConceptGeographical Chemical

Figure 3: TUA qualitative uncertainty visualization layout. Example extracted from U.S. EPA 2009 SO REA

Source(s) Concept

AlgorithmAgent(s)applicability

Chemical

Non-chemicalExample extracted from U.S. EPA 2009 SO2 REA

AlgorithmAgent(s)Exposure route(s)

Non-chemicalExample extracted from U.S. EPA 2009 SO2 REA

Target(s)Exposure route(s)

TUA is freely accessible and it is now used within the Target(s)

TUA is freely accessible and it is now used within the European HEIMTSA integrated project.

Microenvironment Pathway(s)

European HEIMTSA integrated project.Microenvironment

European HEIMTSA integrated project.Figure 1: Identification of uncertainty sources

, 2007

ContactFigure 1: Identification of uncertainty sources

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Contact

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Dr. Alexandre Zenié

opean C Dr. Alexandre Zenié

Tel. +39 0332 785285 • Fax +39 0332 789453

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p Tel. +39 0332 785285 • Fax +39 0332 789453E-mail: alexandre.zenie@jrc.ec.europa.eu©

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E-mail: alexandre.zenie@jrc.ec.europa.euE-mail: alexandre.zenie@jrc.ec.europa.eu