Tsunami risk in South Asia

Dale Dominey-Howes

Macquarie UniversitySydney, Australia

Structure of the presentation

Short context

Outline relative global risk

Explore risk in the Asia-Pacific region – frequency-magnitude

Recommendations for the industry

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurancefor Natural Catastrophe Risk

Introduction and context

We now know what tsunami are

They are generated in four separate ways

Tsunami magnitude is a measure of wave height at shore

Tsunami intensity is a measure of wave effect

Tsunami have dramatic effects on human and environmental systems

Remainder of this talk will outline relative global risk before summarising risk in the Asia-Pacific region

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Causes

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Tsunami Magnitude

Tsunami intensity?Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk

Magnitude data across the globe

Analysis for specific “Cresta zones”

www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html

Economic and insurance costs

UN estimate of rebuild costs – US$10 – 12.5 bn

As of April 2005, insured losses estimated at US$2.5 – 4 bn

Major insurers / reinsurers reporting relatively low losses

Insurance losses remarkably light – low wealth areas with little(catastrophe) insurance

Little domestic property and business insurance

Affected multiple classes:

Life and healthBuildings, contents and infrastructureBusiness interruption lossTravelMotorMarine etc Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk

http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html

Relative Global Risk – historic distribution

Large tsunami: = 6:100 years!

Two on-line catalogues:

Russian catalogue from 1628 BC – 2,200 eventsAmerican catalogue from 49 BC – over 2,000 events

Relative Global Risk

Tsunami risk in the Asia-Pacific region

SAM

HAW

CAM

A-A

K-K

JAP

PHI

INDNGS

NZT

(After Gusiakov, 2005)

Efficiency of tsunami generation

Region EQK Tsunami TE (%)

South America*

122 102 84

Indonesia* 86 68 79

Philippines 73 55 75

NG – Sol Islands

130 86 64

Central America

112 62 55

Japan 255 123 48

Alaska – Aleutians

108 49 46

Kuril – Kamchatka

150 68 45

NZL – Tonga 162 62 38

Hawai’i* 3 13 433Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurancefor Natural Catastrophe Risk

Tsunami Risk in South Asia?

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake

Tsunamigenic zones?

Past tsunami events?

Frequency – magnitude?

Future risk?

IO Warning System andpublic awareness andmitigation techniques

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Fundamental research on documentary and geological record of tsunami

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Use of improved records of tsunami to examine frequency-recurrence and magnitude estimates for at risk areas

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Development and application of tsunami vulnerability assessment frameworks and the development of appropriate building code standards and best practice design

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Reassessment of insurance asset exposure to tsunami loss and careful pricing of premiums to accurately take account of potential tsunami losses

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Increased collaboration between relevant stakeholders to improve community education and to promote risk reduction measures

Acknowledgements

Organisers for invitation to make this presentation

Thanks to Aon Re Australia Ltd for their support in to research in to tsunami

Any questions?

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