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Trutz HaaseJonathan Pratschke
ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX
Conceptual Underpinnings
ICLRD - Maynooth College - 26th November 2014
DEPRIVATION INDICES NORTH AND SOUTH
Northern Ireland 1981 – Urban Priority Areas (Department of the Environment-UK, 1983)
1991 – Relative Deprivation in NI (Robson et al., 1994)
2001 – NI Multiple Deprivation Measures (Noble, 2001)
2005 – NIMDM update (NISRA, 2005)
2010 – NIMDM update (NISRA, 2010)
Republic of Ireland 1991 – Index of Relative Affluence and Deprivation (Haase et al., 1996)
1996 – Index of Relative Affluence and Deprivation (Pratschke & Haase, 2000)
2002 – Index of Relative Affluence and Deprivation (Haase & Pratschke, 2005)
2006 – New Measures of Deprivation (Haase & Pratschke, 2008)
2006 – Pobal HP Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2010)
2011 – Pobal HP Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2012)
All-Island 2001/06 – All-Island Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2012, Proof-of-Concept Study)
2011 – All-Island HP Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2014)
THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX
1. Proof-of-Concept study successfully concluded in 2012, using 2006 SA level data from
the Republic of Ireland and 2001 OA level data for Northern Ireland.
2. Methodological issues that need to be addressed are:
1. Improved comparability of indicator variables
2. Common dimensionality of deprivation
3. Common statistical model
4. Standardisation of index scores across multiple jurisdictions
q The 2011 All-Island HP Deprivation Index builds closely on the joint report by CSO and
NISRA: Census 2011 – Ireland and Northern Ireland (June 2014)
q Full data matching significantly improves attractiveness of the new All-Island index.
CONCEPTUAL BASIS
1. Index is constructed by way of latent variable modelling, using Confirmatory Factor
Analysis (CFA) and a multi-group structural equation model (SEM) to represent the two
jurisdictions.
2. CFA requires a strong theoretical justification before the model is specified
3. The researcher decides which of the observed variables are to be associated with
which of the latent constructs
4. Variables are assumed to be imperfect manifestations, thus allowing for measurement
error
5. CFA models allow the comparison of outcomes over time
6. CFA facilitates the objective evaluation of the quality of the model through fit statistics
Relative Poverty
“People are living in poverty if their income and resources (material, cultural and social) are so inadequate as to preclude them from having a standard of living which is regarded as acceptable by Irish society generally.”
(Government of Ireland, NAPS, 1997)
Relative Deprivation
“The fundamental implication of the term deprivation is of an absence – of essential or desirable attributes, possessions and opportunities which are considered no more than the minimum by that society.”
(Coombes et al., DoE – UK, 1995)
A COMPREHENSIVE DEFINITION OF POVERTY
Demographic Decline (predominantly rural)
population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population)
Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas)
social class composition, education, housing quality
Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban)
unemployment, lone parents, low skills base
THE UNDERLYING DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE
Demographic Decline
Social Class Disadvantage
Labour Market Deprivation
Age Dependency Rate
Population Change
Low Qualification
High Qualification
Persons per Room
High Social Classes
Low Social Classes
Lone Parents
Male Unemployment
Female Unemployment
DIMENSIONALITY OF THE2011 ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX
Directly comparable indicator variables Population Change
Age Dependency
Lone Parents Ratio
Average Number of Persons per Room
Newly-designed comparable indicator variables Proportion of Adult Population with Low Qualifications (no, primary and lower secondary)
Proportion of Adult Population with High Qualifications (third level)
Proportion of Population in High Social Classes (top 2 classes in NS-SEC7 classification)
Proportion of Population in Low Social Classes (bottom 2 classes in NS-SEC7 classification)
Male Unemployment Rate (now ILO-based definition)
Female Unemployment Rate (now ILO-based definition)
COMPARABILITY OF INDICATOR VARIABLES
POPULATION CHANGE 2006 - 2011
Population Change 2006-2011Haase & Pratschke 2014
15 and higher (5118)5 to 15 (4625)0 to 5 (3841)
-5 to 0 (3456)-5 and low er (5985)
NI: 4.1% RoI: 8.2%
AGE DEPENDENCY2011
Age DependencyHaase & Pratschke 2014
39 to 78 (4168)36 to 39 (4045)33 to 36 (4889)30 to 33 (3796)0 to 30 (6127)
NI: 34.1% RoI: 33.0%
LONE PARENTS2011
Lone ParentsHaase & Pratschke 2014
50 to 100 (2417)25 to 50 (6195)15 to 25 (5255)10 to 15 (3700)0 to 10 (5458)
NI: 29.3% RoI: 21.6%
LOW QUALIFICATIONS2011
Low QualificationsHaase & Pratschke 2014
55 to 100 (3074)45 to 55 (4146)35 to 45 (6118)25 to 35 (4846)0 to 25 (4841)
NI: 40.6% RoI: 36.8%
HIGH QUALIFICATIONS2011
High QualificationsHaase & Pratschke 2014
30 to 100 (5782)22.5 to 30 (4220)17.5 to 22.5 (4073)12.5 to 17.5 (4225)0 to 12.5 (4725)
NI: 23.7%RoI: 23.5%
LOW SOCIAL CLASS2011
Low ClassHaase & Pratschke 2014
40 to 80 (4409)30 to 40 (5433)25 to 30 (3886)20 to 25 (3884)0 to 20 (5413)
NI: 34.2% RoI: 27.0%
HIGH SOCIAL CLASS2011
High ClassHaase & Pratschke 2014
35 to 100 (5888)25 to 35 (6231)20 to 25 (4029)15 to 20 (3556)0 to 15 (3321)
NI: 31.1% RoI: 27.9%
MALE ILO UNEMPLOYMENT2011
Male ILO UnemploymentHaase & Pratschke 2014
25 to 100 (5331)20 to 25 (3134)15 to 20 (4310)10 to 15 (5051)0 to 10 (5199)
NI: 10.7% RoI: 19.8%
FEMALE ILO UNEMPLOYMENT2011
Female ILO UnemploymentHaase & Pratschke 2014
20 to 100 (2620)15 to 20 (2973)10 to 15 (6192)5 to 10 (7198)0 to 5 (4042)
NI: 5.9% RoI: 12.5%
PERSONS PER ROOM2011
Average Number of Persons per RoomHaase & Pratschke 2014
0.55 to 11 (5041)0.5 to 0.55 (3941)0.45 to 0.5 (6953)0.4 to 0.45 (5273)0 to 0.4 (1817)
NI: 0.45 RoI: 0.50
2011 ALL-ISLANDHP DEPRIVATION INDEX SCORE
All-Island HP Deprivation ScoreHaase & Pratschke 2014
30 to 50 (38)20 to 30 (507)10 to 20 (3060)0 to 10 (7946)
-10 to 0 (7807)-20 to -10 (3117)-30 to -20 (535)-60 to -30 (15)
NI: 3.0 RoI: - 0.7
THREE MAJOR OBSERVATIONS
By 2011 Northern Ireland had become the more affluent of the two jurisdictions. This is of considerable interest, as the relative positions of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are reversed compared with our previous analysis.
The driving factor in this striking development has been the ability of Northern Ireland to maintain a comparatively high level of employment despite the unfavourable economic climate since roughly the mid-point of the inter-census period.
The third observation that emerges is that rural areas in the Republic of Ireland appear to be much more negatively affected by opportunity deprivation than equivalent areas in Northern Ireland.
COMPARISON OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION SCORES NORTH AND SOUTH
COMPARING THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX AGAINST THE NI MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION MEASURES
2011 ALL-ISLANDHP DEPRIVATION INDEX SCORES FORCOUNTIES AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT DISTRICTS
Ireland Northern Ireland
Local Authority Areas AI HP Score Local Government Districts AI HP Score
Carlow -3.84 Antrim 6.51
Cavan -2.82 Ards 4.59
Clare -2.75 Armagh 4.11
Cork City -2.12 Ballymena 4.91
County Cork 1.95 Ballymoney 2.02
County Galway -0.82 Banbridge 6.01
County Limerick -1.35 Belfast 2.65
County Waterford -1.16 Carrickfergus 4.43
Donegal -6.06 Castlereagh 8.66
Dublin City 1.79 Coleraine 3.70
Dublin Fingal 4.11 Cookstown 3.27
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown 8.50 Craigavon 3.81
Galway City 5.47 Derry -0.44
Kerry -2.55 Down 5.00
Kildare 1.22 Dungannon 4.70
Kilkenny -1.14 Fermanagh 3.85
Laois -1.61 Larne 3.72
Leitrim -1.26 Limavady -0.70
Limerick City -8.58 Lisburn 6.47
Longford -4.41 Magherafelt 5.37
Louth -3.23 Moyle 1.08
Mayo -5.13 Newry and Mourne 2.73
Meath -0.69 Newtownabbey 5.83
Monaghan -2.83 North Down 8.43
Offaly -4.04 Omagh 4.48
Roscommon -3.73 Strabane -2.75
Sligo 0.87
South County Dublin -1.05
Tipperary NR -4.60
Tipperary SR -3.87
Waterford City -4.40
Westmeath -1.46
Wexford -5.90
Wicklow -1.33
THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX IN THE FORTHCOMING AIRO CENSUS ATLAS