TRP Belarus PPT 03.12.2019 english...5 Veterinarian 748 574,10 6 Accountant 557 501,47 7 Director 437 899,20 8 Medical Laboratory Assistant 411 479,78 9 Forester 386 549,24 10 Master

2018-2020

ETF Assessment of BelarusMinsk, 3 December 2019

Pirita Vuorinen, ETF

FOCUS ON POLICY RESPONSES AND LEARNING

• That obstruct human capital development• That can be addressed through policy• That can be addressed through learning

Image source: https://mindfulambition.net/big-rocks-first/

Torino Process in Belarus

Image source: https://mindfulambition.net/big-rocks-first/

Torino Process 2018-20 5

Demography: progressive increase in pension age since 2017 is working but not fast enough

Source: Belstat, 2019

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Main age groups in the total population (at the beginning of the year)

Under working age Working age Over working age


-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2015 2016 2017 2018

Migration

Emigration Immigration

Migration is negatively impacting demographics: qualified migration, negative net migration rate is growing

Source: Belstat

Professional training of workers in absolute values

Source: Adult and Continuing Education in Belarus, German Institute for Adult Education (2017)

Only formal adult education financed by the government or region, for public employees, is monitored.

Professional training of workers in percentage

to the total number of employed people


Respondent's education level From the number of respondents with an appropriate level of

education

From the number of those who received

additional education

Incomplete secondary education 2,5% 1,0%

Incomplete secondary education 3,3% 7,9%

General secondary education 9,8% 14,1%Vocational education 10,4% 7,7%

Secondary special education 11,8% 16,1%

Incomplete higher education 16,4% 6,4%Higher education 19,3% 44,1%Master, postgraduate, doctoral 28,2% 2,7%

Adult education is significantly

more used by higher education

graduates (44.1%) than VET

(7.7%) or secondary

specialised education (16.1%).

Source: Novak, analysis funded by the European Commission, 2019

State program ‘Education and

youth policies’ 2016–2020 aim

is that in 2020 15% of the

population benefits from adult

education (up 5% from 2017,

advanced training and

retraining).

Adult education is significantly more used by higher education graduates


12.8%

9.0%10.5%

11.5%12.8%

13.7%

29.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

16-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50 and over

Share of registered unemployed, % of total

Registered unemployment increases with age

Source: Belstat

Adult education: non-formal learning services provided by CSOs are insufficient (cover 1.2% of population over 5 years)

Source: Adult and Continuing Education in Belarus, German Institute for Adult Education (2017)

The government does not provide financial support for entrepreneurship training for silver entrepreneurs (aged 50+) for their active involvement in the economy.

Opportunities

• Attention could move from focus on young people’s education - to lifelong learning and adult education.

• The need in trainers for adult education will increase.

• Strengthening cooperation among providers (including non-formal).

• Guidance for adult learners through the provision of information.

• Validation of informal and non-formal learning for prospective adult education students who wish to further their studies.

• Reintegration through active labour market measures including business initiative and silver entrepreneurship training.

3.5 3.44.1

5.26.0

6.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

ICT gross value added of the economy, %

Agriculture sector value added (2007-2016)

Gross Value Added (GVA) by small and micro enterprises representsabout 28 % of total GVA in Belarus.

Source: World Bank, 2019 Source: EY, 2017

MSME value added sectors

Job growth in MSME value sectors


-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Micro, small and medium sized businesses, private capital

micro small medium

Private sector employment is growing primarily in micro enterprises, low value-added services industry



Opportunities (ETF, SBA 2019)

• There’s a need to develop a systematic approach to optimising limited resources and connecting them to a broader innovation drive through SME training and coaching.

• Establishing formal career guidance would foster in a more systematic way students with entrepreneurial aspirations.

• The Ministry of Economy could take the lead in strengthen data on enterprise skills for evidence-based planning, monitoring and evaluation (e.g. under the new Agency for SME Support). This could also serve as a means to establish a co-ordination mechanism for SME support organisations.

Labour market shortages

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Supply and demand for labour (in thousands)

Unemployed job seekers Vacancies

Source: Belstat and Employment Services, 2019

COMPARISON OF LABOR MARKET BY PROFESSION

Rating Employee Positions QuantityAverage salary

1Nurse 2 621 478,52

2 Medical specialist 2 581 633,74

3 Engineer 1 716 732,55

4 Specialist 969 651,01

5 Veterinarian 748 574,10

6 Accountant 557 501,47

7 Director 437 899,20

8Medical Laboratory Assistant 411 479,78

9 Forester 386 549,24

10 Master 361 666,19

11 Paramedic 327 553,27

12 Chief accountant 320 684,98

13 Pre-school teachers 293 428,6514 Veterinary nurses 285 477,05

15 Chief Engineer 276 778,54

The most required positions for employees

Source: Vankevich, 2019

Labour market shortages

Early career, students Art, entertainment, mass mediaHR management, trainingAccounting, management accounting, enterprise finances

Administrative staffScience, educationManufacturingMarketing, advertising, PR Transport, logisticsProcurementSalesMedicine, pharmaceuticalsSports clubs, fitness, beauty salonsIT technologies, Internet, telecomConstruction, real estateBanks, investments, leasingHousehold staffAutomotive businessTourism, hotels, restaurantsWorkforce

Competition in the field of professional areas in Q3 2019

ratio of the number of resumes and vacancies

A strong link between income and transition path from school to work


short transition mid transition long transition

more than 1200 rubles

801-1200 rubles

401-800 rubles

less than 400 rubles

Salary (in the second half of 2018), slightly higher only among respondents with higher education

Average wages

by level of

education


general secondary education

special secondary education

higher education

full higher education

vocational education

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Yes, the work is related to training received in aneducational institution

No, I’m not working in my specialty

I work in a field that is close to my education

To work in the specialty, received additional education

Other

Relevance of obtained skills or education to those required by the job

Source: https://jobs.tut.by/article/13579

Skills mismatches result from both over-qualification and under-qualification

https://jobs.tut.by/article/13579

78,400

60,960

16002 134596,698 4,660

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2017 2025

Education system growth forecast (based on existing trends)

graduates

stem graduates

stem graduates in most sought after specialisation

Emerging labour shortages and skills gapsFrom the supply side perspective (education and training) digital economy entails making better use of digital technology for teaching and learning. However,

• 51% of teachers lack the necessary quantity of computers for training and internet access

• 44% of teachers say that digital technologies are used only occasionally by students in class

• two-thirds of classes have access to reliable and appropriate computer hardware and software

Many employers are concerned key competences i.e. workers lack ‘soft skills’.

Source: EY, 2017

Opportunities

• Stronger partnerships needed between private sector and training.

• Improve access to digital educational resources in VET schools.

• Improve VET teachers’ skills in applying digital educational resources.

• The HTP is an important training and coaching hub for the IT sector. However, it is restricted to ICT companies only. Possible replication of such a model for other value added sectors to benefit from a similar open innovation ecosystem.

• Big data tools offers opportunities for real-time labour market analysis of the demand side. Big data could be used to strengthen skills anticipation.

Efficiency: Image of the education system is positive

Negative, 2.3%

Rather negative,

7.6%

Neutral, 28.7%

Quite positive, 38.5%

Fully positive, 22.9%

Distribution of answers to the

question: “How do you assess the

work of the educational system of

the Republic of Belarus as a

whole?”


Efficiency: The level of education is related to the level of employment.


80.50%

77.50%

77.85%

15.67%

0.30%

высшее образование

среднее специальное

профессионально-техническоe

общее среднее

базовое

Employment rate by level of education

basic education

general secondary education

vocational education

secondary specialized education

higher education

Efficiency: VET and specialised secondary education (SSE)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Number of students in VET 2010-2018

2010 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Number of students in SSE 2010-2018

2010 2018

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of students per VET and SSE institution 2010-2018

VET, average number of students per institution

Specialised secondary education, average number ofstudents per institution

Efficiency: resource centers for economic development

To improve the quality of professional education, a network of 47 resource centers has been created, in which the implementation of educational programs in a network form of interaction is possible

Source: https://edu.gov.by/sistema-obrazovaniya/glavnoe-upravlenie-professionalnogo-obrazovaniya/prof-obr/

Vitebsk region

Mogilev region

Gomel regionBrest region

Grodnyregion

Minsk region

Minsk

DOMESTIC SERVICE

TIMBER HARVESTING AND PROCESSING

INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGIES

LIGHT INDUSTRY

MACHINERY

CATERING

FOOD PRODUCTION

RADIO- MICRO- AND NANO ELECTRONIC TECHNOLOGY

AGRICULTURECONSTRUCTION AND MUNICIPAL SERVICES

TRANSPORTENERGETICS

Quality: teachers competencies are valued

3.69

3.76

3.97

3.79

3.79

3.54

3.28

3.54

3.90

3.91

4.13

3.92

3.98

3.83

3.48

3.57

Content of training programmes

Organization of the training process

Qualifications and competence of teachers

Management of educational institutions

Level of received knowledge, qualifications

Applicability of acquired knowledge in

practice

Employment potential

Material base (condition of classrooms,

equipment, etc.)

VillageTown

Evaluate the following

components of the

education system as a

whole” (mean

according to locality, to

5-scale)


Quality: findings of the ETF study on VET teachers• Over 30% say training did not cover all or any of the subjects that they are

teaching.

• 37% of specialist VET teachers have no working experience in the industry for which they are preparing recruits.

• Principals have some influence over individual appointments and the curriculum offer but little influence over salaries and the school budget.

• Social partners participate in 82% of school boards.

• 86% of principals say their effectiveness is limited by shortage of resources.

• 50% see their effectiveness constrained by: the lack of ‘a career-based teachers’ wage system’; lack of participation and support by parents or guardians and a high workload and level of responsibility for their work.

• Overall, approx. 80% of VET teachers believe CPD offer is relevant.

Opportunities

• Efficiency: ‒ School network restructuring towards a more flexible system able to effectively respond to

the needs of learners and labour market.

• Quality: ‒ Enhance interaction between providers and companies to improve the learning process. ‒ Application of modular provision would facilitate better integration of theory with practice

(e.g. training in company). This could also bring together the most advanced teachers and trainers from VET providers, companies and the private sector to work on reviewing the profiles.

• Training of VET provider managers:‒ Modernise competence requirements of VET managers (e.g. autonomy).

• Teacher training for the implementation of competence-based VET:‒ Improve and streamline standards of VET teachers/trainers taking into account combination

of roles and functions (e.g. counselling mentoring in addition to teaching)‒ Design and test career development scheme for VET teachers/trainers with a special

attention to the needs of trainers/mentors in work-based and adult learning

Источник: Boeing

Youth Education

42.08%

45.92%

46.48%

46.63%

53.05%

61.99%

67.70%

22.62%

33.67%

28.13%

32.12%

33.80%

24.56%

18.76%

35.29%

20.41%

25.39%

21.24%

13.15%

13.45%

13.54%

Higher Specialized secondaryBasic, secondary, general vocational

10.6%

15.2%

20.6%

10.5%

15.3%

19.1%

8.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Brest Vitebsk Gomel Grodny MinskCity

Minsk Mogilev

Share of regional industrial output

Regional human capital

31 25 33 18 279 46 23677 625 2,234

442

18,937

3,690

803

0

5000

10000

15000

20000


Minsk Mogilev

Concentration of R&D Organisations and personnel

No of research organisations No of persons working on research

Source: Belstat, 2019 Source: Novak, analysis funded by the European Commission, 2019

The most educated young people live in the capital, Minsk.

The level of education of young people is significantly higher among urban residents

49.00%

67.70%

29.06%

18.76%

21.94%

13.54%Young people living in the capital

Young people living in rural areas

Higher educationSpecialized secondary educationBasic, secondary, general vocational education


37.83%

57.21%

30.26%

25.60%

31.91%

17.19%Urban population

Rural population

Internal migration- urbanisation

-1888

-1833

-1828

-513

10254

6754

-1583

-4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Brest

Vitebsk

Gomel

Grodno

Minsk Сity

Minsk

Mogilev

Net migration


Regional Competitiveness Index

Source: IPM Research Center, analysis funded by the European Commission, 2018.

Fig. 3. connection between RCI and GDP per capita

GDP per capita, thou.$

↘

Notation keys: BR – Brest region, VT-Vitebsk region,HM-Gomel region,HR-Grodny region,MC-Minsk,MS-Minsk region,MH-Mogilev region,BY-Belarus in general,’17 and ‘18 RCI-2017 (GDP-2016) and RCI-2018 (GDP-2017) accordingly.Sourses: own calculations based on data from the IPM Belstat and National Bank

Regional Competitiveness Index: Subindex “Innovation and Business Development Status”


Mogilev region

Minsk region

Minsk

Grodny region

Gomel region

Vitebsk region

Brest region

Belarus

RCI-2018 RCI-2017 changes

Research organisations are concentrated in Minsk and too small to leverage on proximity at regional level

31 25 33 18 279 46 23677 625

2,234

442

18,937

3,690

803

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Brest Vitebsk Gomel Grodny Minsk City Minsk Mogilev

Concentration of R&D Organisations and personnel

No of research organisations No of persons working on research

10%8% 9% 8%

40%

19%

8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


Minsk Mogilev

Share of micro and small enterprises

15%12%

15%11%

21%

15%

11%10%10% 9%

11%

29%

19%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Brest Vitebsk Gomel Grodno Minsk Сity

Minsk Mogilev

Number of SMEs in regions, per 1000 people (%)

Share of the total population SMEs per 1,000 population, %

Private sector growth is concentrated in Minsk


In Vitebsk, the average number

of students shrank by 57%

9.3%7.4%

9.9% 10.5%

27.7%

14.4%

6.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%


Minsk Mogilev

GRP of GDP

19,141 18,419 20,434 21,358

31,524.6

25,541.8

18,463.9

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000


Labour productivity (in thousands) (RUB)

256.4 75.9 203.6 149.8

6,640.0

1,036.6

174.9 0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000


FDI ($US in thousands)

828.4 814.4 853.3 831.9

1329.6

956.8802

0

500

1000

1500


Minsk Mogilev

Nominal accrued average monthly wages of employees, rubles, 2011-2015 - thousand

roubles.

Possible spillovers of private sector growth is also concentrated


Regional Competitiveness Index: factors that increase efficiency, the education component


Mogilev region

Minsk region

Minsk

Grodny region

Gomel region

Vitebsk region

Brest region

Belarus

changesRCI-2017RCI-2018

Opportunities

• Make use of resource centres to develop competences of regional workforce and MSME training.

• Focus skills development to support growth centres and competitive niches (e.g. clusters, centres of excellence).

Thank you !

Documents

TRP Belarus PPT 03.12.2019 english...5 Veterinarian 748 574,10 6 Accountant 557 501,47 7 Director 437 899,20 8 Medical Laboratory Assistant 411 479,78 9 Forester 386 549,24 10 Master