Trends, Technologies, and Evolutions Metropolitan Networksicc2002.ieee-icc.org/notes/ICC2002_NasirGhani_BAS.pdf · Spans very broad space: access/edge, metro/regional core ... Broadband

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 1

Metropolitan Networks: Metropolitan Networks:

Trends, Technologies, and EvolutionsTrends, Technologies, and Evolutions

Dr.Dr. Nasir GhaniNasir GhaniSenior Architect, Sorrento Networks IncSenior Architect, Sorrento Networks Inc

nghaninghani@@sorrentonetsorrentonet.com.com

Business Application SessionBusiness Application SessionIEEE ICC 2002IEEE ICC 2002

New York City, New York, May 1New York City, New York, May 1stst, 2002, 2002


OutlineOutline

�Background

�Emerging Trends

�Market Realities

�Solution Technologies

�Conclusions


BackgroundBackground� A brief “metro” taxonomy

• Spans very broad space: access/edge, metro/regional core• Interconnects end-user domains and long-haul• Entrenched legacy SONET/SDH (TDM) infrastructures

� Metro is becoming key operator focus• New and challenging paradigms give rise to opportunity• Complex setups, highest diversity (protocols, services)• Huge projected market size (> $4.0 billion by 2005):

Abundance of competing operators and vendors


Overall Network Taxonomy

BackgroundBackground

Metro Edge-Access Networks

10-50 km

Networked storage(Fibre Channel)

Mainframes(ESCON, FICON)

Circuit emulation(ATM, frame relay)

Legacy voice leased line(DS-n, OC-n/STM-n)

Cable videoxDSLCellular/wireless

(DS-n, OC-n/STM-n)Gigabit

EthernetEthernetLAN

Metro/Regional Core Networks

100-1000 kmOC-48/192 ITU-T G.709

Long-Haul Core Networks1000-10000 km


OutlineOutline

�Background

�Emerging Trends

�Market Realities


�Conclusions


� Traffic growth remains strong• New services: LAN extension, VPN, SAN extension• Growth approx 80-120% per year, over 80% data by 2003

� Improving end-user access technologies• New technologies (DSL, cable, “next-gen” & fixed wireless)• Low-cost Gig Ethernet connectivity (fiber, cable, copper)

� Deregulation intensifies metro competition• Multiple players (RBOC/PTT, CLEC, ISP, cable, utility)• Long-haul builds complete, focus on expanding client base

Emerging TrendsEmerging Trends


Likely case

2000 200320022001 2004

Rel

ativ

e vo

lum

e

10

20

30

40

2005

North American Internet Traffic

Best case

Worst Case

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02e

Cost per gigabyte ($000)

Storage costs declining

02468

10121416

'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01e '02e '03e

Disk drive capacity shipped (petabytes)

Storage consumption rising



� “Metro gap”: legacy bandwidth limitations• Single-channel fiber exhaust, stranded core capacity• Node terminal/fiber expansion very slow, unfeasible• Difficult to scale beyond OC-192 rates (10 Gbps)

� Additional limitations abound• Data “multi-layering” is very inefficient (ATM, FR):

Separate layers, limited service definitions• Legacy provisioning costs exceeding revenues• SAN services support is lacking (no standards)



Emerging TrendsEmerging TrendsHierarchical Metro Legacy Networks

Broadband DCS’s

Patch panels

Long-haul DWDMtransmission

WidebandDCS

OC-3/12 edgeSONET rings

OC-12 edge SONET rings

WidebandDCS

Patch panels

Telephony switchIP

OC-n interfaces

DS-n

DSLAM

Central office

Multiple “stacked” IOFSONET rings (OC-48/192)

Central office

Central officeLong-haul POP


OutlineOutline

�Background

�Emerging Trends

�Market Realities


�Conclusions


Market RealitiesMarket Realities

� Extremely challenging fiscal conditions• Large equity/stock erosion, high operator debt levels• Mid-term “cap-ex crunch”, vendor/VC slow investment

� Operator survival strategy: evolution not revolution• Lower costs, grow revenues, maximize existing networks• Cautious upgrades, consolidation (incumbents, cable emerge)• Competition will spur spending (cost, differentiation)

� Equipment vendors must react• Lower prices, increase margins, diversify clients, profitability• “End-to-end” metro solutions, increased carrier selectivity


Source: Yahoo Finance

SteadyGrowth

SteadyGrowth

Market Stabilization

“Cap-Ex” Retrenchment

Accelerated Growth

The “Bubble” Legacy

Market RealitiesMarket Realities

Estimated spending(as per demand growth)Massive long-haul core

overbuilds, operators incur large debt

Debt reduction, market consolidation, focus on metro and edge/access

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041997 1998

Timeframe

Rel

ativ

e sp

endi

ng (U

.S. m

arke

t)


OutlineOutline

�Background

�Emerging Trends

�Market Realities


�Conclusions


� New metro solutions are needed• Capacity/topology scalability (linear, ring, mesh)• Collapsed “multi-protocol” infrastructures• Rapid, flexible provisioning, “carrier-class” support• Access/core hierarchies remain (cost, operational reasons)

� Lowering operator cost is key• Initial first cost, achieve “pay-as-you-grow”• “Price-per-port” reduction vs. legacy TDM (>20%)• Reduced operations, maintenance, co-location costs

Solution TechnologiesSolution Technologies


� A case for metro/regional core DWDM• Scalability, service transparency, optical amplification• Superior gigabit economics, declining costs (≈20% / year)

� Static “1st/2nd generation” metro DWDM• Pt-to-pt transmission (fiber-relief), static add-drop (linear/ring)• Modular “right-sizing” lowers first cost, pair revenue/growth• Solid traction, strong growth (≈$2.0 billion by 2005)

� Later evolve to “3rd generation” dynamic DWDM• Intelligent control, “soft-optics” (switching, tuning, GMPLS)• High-capacity, rapid provisioning (shared rings, mesh)• Deployment will take time (maturity, cost, applications)

Solution Technologies: Metro CoreSolution Technologies: Metro Core


DWDM transmission

1st Generation

SONETOC-48/192

WDM

SONETOC-3/12

ADM

Point-to-point capacity expansion

FixedOADM

DCS

UPSR ring(16-32 λ)

Fixed filtering add/drop

2nd GenerationStatic linear/ring

1999-2004100’s Gb/s-Tb/s

Days

Dynamic OADM/OXC

3rd Generation

OXC

BLSR ring(40-80 λ)

Dynamic wavelength-provisioning ring/mesh

2004-201010-100’s Tb/s

Minutes-seconds

4th Generation

OPS/OXC

Circuit/packet nodes

Hybrid optical packet/circuit switching

2010+Petabitsms-ns

TimelineNetwork Capacity

Lambda Timescales

Solution Technologies: Metro CoreSolution Technologies: Metro Core


� Electronics for “fine-granularity” service control• Client diversity, “sub-rate” lambda grooming lowers costs• Optics will permeate (interfaces, capacity expansion)• Very large market (even exceeding metro core DWDM)

� New optical edge device (OED) solutions• “Re-optimize” use of existing capacity :

- “Next-generation SONET/SDH” (NGS)/MSPP- Ethernet switching, resilient packet ring (RPR)

• Add new capacity and improve utilization:Multi-service optics (xWDM-based solutions)

Solution Technologies: Edge/AccessSolution Technologies: Edge/Access


� “Next-generation SONET/SDH” (NGS)• Re-use TDM ubiquity, improve data/SAN support (VC, GFP)• Favorable as interim incumbent solution (familiarity)

� “Next-gen. Ethernet”: carrier-grade data transport• Ethernet switching uses MPLS QoS, protection schemes• RPR optimizes for “packet rings” (new MAC, CoS, protection)

� Multi-service optics: xWDM w. smart interfaces• Unamplified optics, optimized for small channel counts• CWDM optics further savings (lasers, filters, operations)• Add “thin mux” blades for TDM/data/SAN aggregation



Today’s Metro COToday’s Metro CO

ADMADMADMADM

ADMADM

RPR MAC

Ethernet RPREthernet RPR

OC-48OC-192

10/100 Eth

Gig Eth IP

Map all services to Ethernet packets

DWDM

IP

MultiMulti--Service ProvisioningService Provisioning

ATM

DCS ADM

E1,DS3/E3STM-n

ADM

NextNext--Gen SONET/SDHGen SONET/SDH

DCSDCSE1,DS3/E3

OC-n10/100/GE

10/100/GEGig Eth

Map all services to SONET/SDH frames

OC-48OC-192

DWDM

Map all services to transparent optics

MultiMulti--Service OpticsService OpticsGig EthSTM-n

FICON/ESCONFiber Channel

Cable videoTransponder

DWDM

FR



OutlineOutline

�Background

�Emerging Trends

�Market Realities


�Conclusions


ConclusionsConclusions� Key metro market characteristics

• Broad domains, rising traffic, client/service diversity• Huge installed legacy base increasing costs:

Low scalability, service inflexibility, lengthy provisioning• Large market opportunity, very strong competition

� Future evolutions• Optics scalability/transparency, “future-proof” growth• Edge multiplexing for multi-service efficiency• Consolidation, highly cost-sensitized/staged migrations


� Mr. Andrew Knott, Vice President of Marketing, White Rock Networks Inc

� Mr. Atul Shinde, Co-Founder, Luminous Networks Inc

� Mr. Ronald J. Kline, Senior Analyst, Metro & Long-Haul Transport, RHK Inc

� Dr. Hasan Imam, Partner and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wireline & Wireless Equipment, Thomas Weisel Partners, LLC

Invited Guest SpeakersInvited Guest Speakers


Further ReadingFurther Reading

� N. Ghani, J. Pan, X. Cheng, “Metropolitan Optical Networks”, Optical Fiber Telecommunications (OFT) IV, Academic Press, 2002, pp. 329-403.

� B. Van Steen, “Optical Networks: North American Metro Forecast Update,” RHK Metro Market Forecast Report, February 2002.

Documents

Trends, Technologies, and Evolutions Metropolitan Networksicc2002.ieee-icc.org/notes/ICC2002_NasirGhani_BAS.pdf · Spans very broad space: access/edge, metro/regional core ... Broadband