Trends in travel – evidence to help think about the future

David Metz

Centre for Transport Studies

University College London

2

3

4

5

London population growth

6

Car traffic and use in London

7

London share of trips

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Conclusions: air travel

• Evidence of demand plateau (USA) and peak (Japan) – perhaps initial indications of market maturity

• Time constraints likely to operate but not understood – researchable

• Infrequent Flyers – a reservoir of demand?• Main growth of Low Cost Carriers now historic• Future demand – more uncertainty than generally

supposed

19

Conclusions: daily travel

• Evidence from NTS– No time savings in long run– No increase in travel per capita since mid-1990s

• Theoretical framework of conventional appraisal and forecasting inconsistent with NTS and Peak Car evidence

• Investment strategies questionable– Too little urban rail– Too much inter-urban road civil engineering– Too little digital technologies

20

www.peakcar.org

21