Trends in Regional Traffic Volumes: Signs of Change? East-West Gateway Council of Governments March 20, 2008 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) is an indicator of regional mobility. Its a measure of the total number of miles driven by all vehicles in the region. VMT is often an indicator of congestion. VMT is useful in deciding when, where and whether new roads, or additional lanes on existing roads, need to be built. To the extent that gasoline taxes constitute the principal source of funding for transportation projects, changes in VMT can significantly affect transportation financing. What is VMT and Why Should We Care? The long term trend for VMT has generally been characterized by rapid growth. Beginning early in this decade VMT growth started to slow in the region. At the national level the trend appears to have begun mid-decade. There do remain local "hot spots" where traffic volume does continue to increase. However, these high volume areas may not represent the entire region. VMT Trends YearAADVMT Annual Percent Growth Rate YearAADVMT Annual Percent Growth Rate ,907, ,271,1853.5% ,388,8301.3%199461,934,9784.5% ,211,7062.3%199563,759,7192.9% ,269,2248.2%199664,959,5351.9% ,693,8216.0%199766,447,1972.3% ,491,7331.9%199867,288,5921.3% ,263,5006.4%199967,335,9050.1% ,860,2883.5%200067,501,1820.2% ,425,5905.4%200168,084,4560.9% ,014,6085.1%200269,318,6531.8% ,751,0263.3%200370,072,5891.1% ,411,3451.2%200470,726,9270.9% ,281,6063.4%200569,983, % Annual Average Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled EWG Region Source: MODOT, IDOT Annual Average Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled EWG Region Source: MODOT, IDOT 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000, Year Vehicle Miles Traveled 4.3% Average Annual Growth 2.3% Average Annual Growth.7% Average Annual Growth.3% Average Annual Growth Local Hot Spots YearVMT Annual Percent Growth Rate YearVMT 19821,549, ,617, ,400, ,678, ,433, ,739, ,517, ,800, ,581, ,880, ,638, ,966, ,727, ,062, ,762, ,130, ,823, ,145, ,858, ,204, ,933, ,269, ,979, ,313, ,997,685 SOURCE: FHWA, TRAFFIC VOLUME TRENDS, MAY Annual Percent Growth Rate Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (Millions), US Urban Vehicle Miles Traveled, US SOURCE: US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500, Years VMT (millions) 4.0% Average Annual Growth 2.7% Average Annual Growth.1% Annual Growth Vehicle Miles Traveled, US SOURCE: FHWA, TRAFFIC VOLUME TRENDS, MAY ,500,000 1,700,000 1,900,000 2,100,000 2,300,000 2,500,000 2,700,000 2,900,000 3,100, Year VMT (millions) 4.1% Average Annual Growth 2.4% Average Annual Growth 1.6% Average Annual Growth.6% Annual Growth Tractor Trailer Vehicle Miles Traveled, US 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , , , Year VMT (millions) 3.2% Average Annual Growth 3.7% Average Annual Growth 1.2% Average Annual Growth.9% Annual Growth Demographic Factors Affecting VMT Growth Population Growth Age of the Population Household Composition Labor Force Participation Vehicle Availability Population Growth EWG RegionUS Annual Percent Growth Rate, Source: US Census Population Growth Rates (Percent) Age of the Population Age of DriverAnnual Miles , , , , , , , , , , ,223 Source: National Household Travel Survey, 2001 Annual Miles Driven, US Household Composition Number of AdultsChild PresentMiles per Driver 1No11,687 1Yes13,848 2No12,775 2Yes15,339 Annual Miles per Driver by Household Type Source: National Household Travel Survey, 2001 Labor Force Participation YearParticipation RateYearParticipation Rate Source: BLS 2002 Age Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rates, Female Labor Force Participation, US, Labor Force Participation Source: BLS 2002 Age Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rates, Female Labor Force Participation Rates 1960 thru Years Percent Vehicle Availability Madison Monroe St. Clair Franklin Jefferson St. Charles St. Louis County St. Louis City Region Source: US Census Percentage of Occupied Housing Units With No Available Vehicle Gas Prices Monthly Gas Prices and VMT thru JAN92JAN93JAN94JAN95 JAN96JAN97JAN98JAN99JAN00JAN01JAN02 JAN03JAN04 JAN05JAN06 Year Gas Prices Measured in Pennies and VMT Measured in Billions Gas Price, 2007 dollars VMT*1 Billion Conclusions Several demographic trends suggest that VMT growth will be moderate, and we are not likely to ever see a return to the growth rates of past decades: Female labor force participation rates have stabilized. The working-age population is likely to decline in absolute terms over the next decade. The number of two-parent households with children is declining. Auto ownership rates are not likely to rise dramatically in the future. Gasoline prices may add a further incentive to reduce driving. Trends in Regional Traffic Volumes: Signs of Change? East-West Gateway Council of Governments March 20, 2008