Trends in Betting

8/14/2019 Trends in Betting

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Trends in Betting, 1989 to 2008

Introduction

This pamphlet takes a very brief look at the performance of the betting sector during theperiod 1989 and 2008. In doing so , it sought to bring to the fore the relationship betweenthe number of race days, races and starts to betting sales.

Evidence seems to indicate a positive relationship between the variables underconsideration, i.e. the greater the number of race days, the greater the quantity of betssold, the greater number of races and or starts, the greater the quantity of bets sold.

The evidence also seems to indicate, that if the Caymanas Track limited is unable to showwherein its marginal variable costs exceeded J$15 million on any of the two Sundays onwhich races were offered, a concession of significant monetary value of roughly J$75million which could be earned with five Sunday races, was made to the Church and the

religious community, a concession made by poor grooms and rich owners alike. Asacrifice made by an entity which is in need of money for its own redevelopment.

One can only but hope, that the beneficiaries of this concession re-examine their positionstowards horse breeding and the role it plays in maintaining agricultural lands whichwould have long been converted into new concrete slums. Re-examine their attitudestowards the role the racing industry as a whole play in preserving the natural endemicfauna and flora. Short of this, the sacrifice would have been wasted and undeserving .

Perhaps of more importance is that the period studied, shows what the industry canachieve when the divisions of class, politics and religion are put aside, and common

ground found with the interests of the industry brought to the forefront of attention.

While it is not the intention of this pamphlet to promote the uncontrolled spread ofbetting, the evidence is clear, that an increase in the number of race days and starts,would be of economic benefit to the racing industry, without at the same time

increasing significantly the marginal costs of operating the Caymanas Race Track.

In fact the difference in the operating costs of operating the plant on an ordinary Tuesdayis not too far below that of operating the plant on a Wednesday when there are races.

This pamphlet also shows that there is a strong punters preference for live racing oversimulcast racing, with betting sales on the average live race far exceeding the average

betting sales on simulcast racing. Hence an increase in live racing would also lead to areduction in the demand for simulcast racing and reducing the outflow of foreignexchange.end

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What would happen if the number of races and or race days were increased?

There are many approaches that one could take in answering this question. The approachtaken in this pamphlet is that of looking into the recent past for answers, rather thantaking an approach of designing models which might unintentional leave out/ignore

significant but unrecognized variables. From the data analyzed so far, it would be goodreasons to believe that an increase in the number of races/starts and or race days, wouldlead to an increase in betting by the punters.

The period 1994 to 2002, drew special attention, while examining the data,. As can beseen from the table below, it represented a type of rebirth and renewal in the racingindustry, there was an increase in the number of races, the number of race days and thenumber of starts.

In fact it could be said, that it was this period which placed the industry in a state whichallowed it to endure the down turn in the mid 2000s.

Number of Race days, Racesand Starts

Year Total Races Starts

1989 87 809 8271

1990 65 643 6330

1991 85 862 9180

1992 84 863 9688

1993 84 849 8006

1994 91 905 7795

1995 88 887 7878

1996 88 902 8511

1997 89 925 8860

1998 83 876 8460

1999 90 942 9744

2000 93 998 10051

2001 94 1022 9929

2002 96 999 9599

2003 90 923 8783

2004 80 839 7916

2005 80 854 8162

2006 82 858 8205

2007 80 841 7519

2008 82 865 8166

2009 80 814 7335

Source:-The Jamaica Racing Commission

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The increased offering by Caymanas Track Limited, was duly recognized and welcomedby the punters who increased their investments in the industry, resulting in what was asustained increase in local betting. This is evidenced in the table and chart below.

Local Betting

YearTotal Betting inUS$

% Change inTotal Betting,1989=100%

Marginal change inTotal Betting

1989 48750.95321 100 0

1990 34744.8895 71.270175 -0.2873

1991 35737.23404 73.305713 0.028561

1992 28846.88995 59.171951 -0.19281

1993 31100.39825 63.794441 0.07812

1994 37635.05557 77.198605 0.210115

1995 41528.20368 85.184393 0.103445

1996 49614.84564 101.77205 0.1947271997 59986.84877 123.04754 0.20905

1998 58712.60573 120.43376 -0.02124

1999 70447.95918 144.50581 0.199878

2000 73353.55153 150.46588 0.041245

2001 69519.63976 142.6016 -0.05227

2002 57718.17058 118.39393 -0.16976

2003 46492.78439 95.367949 -0.19449

2004 42885.06684 87.967648 -0.0776

2005 48080.704 98.625157 0.121153

2006 51787.62902 106.22896 0.077098

2007 57062.04749 117.04807 0.101847

2008 55667.03236 114.18655 -0.02445Source:-The Jamaica Racing Commission

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% Change in Total Betting from 1989

2008, 1989=100%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Percentagechange

% in Total Betti1989=100%

The argument is sometimes posed that an increase in the number of race days should leadto a decline in betting, as the law of diminishing marginal utility begins to manifest itself.As can be seen from the table and graph on the following page, the industry did increasethe number of race days and did earn positive rewards for doing so, as can be seen in thetable above.

It is also worthwhile noting that the average betting per race day also increased as thenumber of race days increased. It is on the basis of this and other similar observations,that the call for an increase in the number of race days and starts is justified.

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Year

Totalnumber ofrace day

Percentagechange innumber of racedays,1989=100

1989 87 100.00

1990 65 74.711991 85 97.70

1992 84 96.55

1993 84 96.55

1994 91 104.60

1995 88 101.15

1996 88 101.15

1997 89 102.30

1998 83 95.40

1999 90 103.45

2000 93 106.90

2001 94 108.05

2002 96 110.342003 90 103.45

2004 80 91.95

2005 80 91.95

2006 82 94.25

2007 80 91.95

2008 82 94.25

2009 80 91.95

% change in average betting per race day1989=1

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

1 4 7 10 13 16 19

pe

rcentagechange

% change inaverage bettingrace day1989=1

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The diagram below, shows the same findings in terms of the changes monetary value ofthe average betting per race day during the period 1989 to 2008. Hence here it is possibleto conclude that an increase in the number of race days during the period examined led toan increase in betting.

Average Betting per race day in US $, period 19

2008

$0.00

$100.00

$200.00

$300.00

$400.00$500.00

$600.00

$700.00

$800.00

$900.00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Averagebetperracedayin

US$ Average Betting

race day

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The question now then is, what happened when the number of races was increased? Thedata from period as is presented in the table below, indicates that there is a positiverelation between number of races and betting.

Year Races

Total

Betting inUS$

Averagebetting

per racein US$

% change inaverage

betting perrace,1989=100

1989 809 $48,750.95 $60.26 100.00

1990 643 $34,744.89 $54.04 89.67

1991 862 $35,737.23 $41.46 68.80

1992 863 $28,846.89 $33.43 55.47

1993 849 $31,100.40 $36.63 60.79

1994 905 $37,635.06 $41.59 69.01

1995 887 $41,528.20 $46.82 77.69

1996 902 $49,614.85 $55.01 91.28

1997 925 $59,986.85 $64.85 107.62

1998 876 $58,712.61 $67.02 111.22

1999 942 $70,447.96 $74.79 124.102000 998 $73,353.55 $73.50 121.97

2001 1022 $69,519.64 $68.02 112.88

2002 999 $57,718.17 $57.78 95.88

2003 923 $46,492.78 $50.37 83.59

2004 839 $42,885.07 $51.11 84.82

2005 854 $48,080.70 $56.30 93.43

2006 858 $51,787.63 $60.36 100.16

2007 841 $57,062.05 $67.85 112.59

2008 865 $55,667.03 $64.35 106.79Source:- The Jamaica Racing Commission

Total betting at each data point change in keeping and in the same direction as changes inthe number of races., for example a decrease in the number of races from 809 in 1989 to643 in 1990 lead to a decrease in total betting, while an increase in the number of racesfrom 643 in 1990 to 862 in 1991 also led to an increase in total betting. This relationshipis shown perhaps clearer in the graph on the next page.

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Average betting per race in US$ ,period

2008

$0.00$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

AveragebetinUS$

Average bettinrace in US$

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An increase in starts during the period examined, also showed an increase in TotalBetting. The table and graph below.

Year

TotalBetting inUS$ Starts

AverageBetting

perstart inUS$

%changein

averagebetting,1989=100

1989 48750.95321 8271 $5.89 100

1990 34744.8895 6330 $5.49 93.12411

1991 35737.23404 9180 $3.89 66.04701

1992 28846.88995 9688 $2.98 50.51726

1993 31100.39825 8006 $3.88 65.90605

1994 37635.05557 7795 $4.83 81.91272

1995 41528.20368 7878 $5.27 89.43388

1996 49614.84564 8511 $5.83 98.9022

1997 59986.84877 8860 $6.77 114.8675

1998 58712.60573 8460 $6.94 117.74321999 70447.95918 9744 $7.23 122.6609

2000 73353.55153 10051 $7.30 123.8189

2001 69519.63976 9929 $7.00 118.7892

2002 57718.17058 9599 $6.01 102.0144

2003 46492.78439 8783 $5.29 89.80853

2004 42885.06684 7916 $5.42 91.91263

2005 48080.704 8162 $5.89 99.94225

2006 51787.62902 8205 $6.31 107.0834

2007 57062.04749 7519 $7.59 128.7544

2008 55667.03236 8166 $6.82 115.6548Source:- Jamaica Racing Commission

Average Betting per start in US$ ( 1989-20

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Averag

ebetperstart

Average Bettper start in U

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Simulcast Betting

Simulcast Betting

Year RacesRaceDays

2006 17541 3122007 16916 306

2008 15227 306

(Source:- Tote Department Caymanas Track Limited)

Year RacesSimulcast BettingIn US$

Average SimulcastBet per race

2006 17541 $25,297.04 $1.44

2007 16916 $30,476.98 $1.80

2008 15227 $25,902.24 $1.70

Year Race Days

SimulcastBetting InUS$

AverageSimulcastBet perrace day

2006 312 $25,297.04 $81.08

2007 306 $30,476.98 $99.60

2008 306 $25,902.24 $84.65

Year

AverageSimulcastBet per race

Averagelocal betper race

2006 $1.44 $60.36

2007 $1.80 $67.852008 $1.70 $64.35

As can be seen from the data above, both the average betting per race day and theaverage betting per race is less than their local counterparts for the same period. Thisindicates that the average punter is prepared to spend more on average on local racing.

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A Good Will Gesture To The Church and the Religious Community

Sunday RacingTotal Betting inUS $

Number ofRaces

Average Betting perrace

29.11.2009 200627.2493 8 25078.4113.12.2009 171491.5188 8 21436.44

( Source:- Tote Department, Caymanas Track Limited)

Sunday RacingTotal Betting inUS $ Starts Average Bet per start

29.11.2009 200627.2493 90 2229.192

13.12.2009 171491.5188 77 2227.163


Sunday Racing

Average Betting perrace

29.11.2009 $25,078.41

13.12.2009 $21,436.44


YearAverage Simulcast Betper race day in US$

Average Local betper Race Day in Us$

2006 $81.08 $631.56

2007 $99.60 $713.28

2008 $84.65 $678.87

End.Basil Fletcher

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Trends in Betting