Trends and Themes as Reflected by Fund’s 13F Filings

8/14/2019 Trends and Themes as Reflected by Funds 13F Filings

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The Inoculated Investor http://inoculatedinvestor.blogspot.com/

Trends and Themes as Reflected by Funds 13F Filings

This past Friday was the 45 th day of the third quarter and also the deadline for fundmanagers to file the 13Ds that reflected their holdings as of 6/30/09. Especiallygiven the current market circumstances, 45 days is a LONG time and thus the data

can potentially be relatively stale and not reflective of these managers currentportfolios. Heck, in this market data that is 7 days old may not be indicative of amanagers current investment philosophy.

Having said that, it is often instructive to take a look at the changes made duringQ2 to get a sense of what themes managers are focusing on. Of course, we cannotsee their short portfolios so for many of these managers you really only get half thestory. But on the long side, having the data from Q4 2008, Q1 2009 and Q2 2009 alltogether, it is sometimes possible to re-engineer a certain managers strategy.

Accordingly, I have taken a sample from an eclectic group of managers. Some are

concentrated while others have much smaller positions sizes. Some add andsubtracts positions while others hold very steady. Some are focused on certainsectors and special situations while others are much more diversified. All in all Ithink the following group of managers provides some useful insight into how thepros navigate volatile markets.

Here are some high level themes I think should be highlighted:

1. Gold is still very a popular investment.

2. Some of the banks whose shares had been hit the hardest garnered a lot of interest from these managers. Specifically: Bank of America, RegionsFinancial, SunTrust Banks, and Fifth Third.

3. Large cap tech names like Hewlett Packard and Oracle seemed to offercompelling value.

4. A number of managers either added or hold a position in McDonalds.

5. 2 different managers added shares of both Pepsi Bottling and Pepsiamericas

6. Many of these funds run way too much money to buy small and micro capcompanies. However, there seemed to be a trend towards buying some of the

best known blue chips as they had not had the same run up as the lesserquality, more levered companies.

7. A number of managers made drastic changes to their portfolios by eithertrimming or completely selling out of existing positions to establish stakes innew companies.


2/12


Paulson and Co.- Manager John Paulson

Paulson and Co. Shares Owned Shares Owned Q4-Q1 Shares Owned Q1-Q2

Position Ticker 12/31/2008 3/31/2009Bought(Sold

) 6/30/2009 Bought(Sold)

AT&T ATT 3,000,000 3,000,000 0 3,000,000 0

BCE Inc BCE 22,597,600 0 (22,597,600) 0 0

Affiliated Computer Services ACS 348,500 348,500 0 0 (348,500)

Anglogold Ashanti AU 0 0 0 42,849,864 42,849,864

Bank of America BAC 0 0 0 167,990,464 167,990,464

Boston Scientific BSX 99,135,000 99,135,000 0 99,135,000 0

Brocade Communications BRCD 5,000,000 5,000,000 0 0 (5,000,000)

CB Richard Ellis CBRE 0 0 0 13,440,860 13,440,860

CF Industries CF 0 0 0 500,000 500,000

Capital One Financial COF 0 0 0 17,000,000 17,000,000

Centennial Communication CYCL 5,000,000 5,000,000 0 5,000,000 0

Centex CTX 0 0 0 1,256,400 1,256,400

Cheniere Energy CQP 7,524,085 7,461,191 (62,894) 7,461,191 0

Data Domain DDUP 0 0 0 2,030,000 2,030,000

Dr Pepper Snapple DPS 1,521,824 1,521,824 0 1,521,824 0

Embarq Corp EQ 2,000,000 2,000,000 0 2,000,000 0

Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 0 0 0 5,000,000 5,000,000First Horizon National FHN 0 0 0 3,000,000 3,000,000

Equity Media Holdings EMDUQ 5,352,382 5,352,382 0 0 (5,352,382)

Genentech DNA 3,424,400 0 (3,424,400) 0 0

Gold Fields GFI 0 0 0 23,000,000 23,000,000

Goldman Sachs GS 0 0 0 2,000,000 2,000,000

Humana HUM 0 0 0 5,000,000 5,000,000

Istar Financial SFI 1,473,500 0 (1,473,500) 0 0

JP Morgan Chase JPM 0 0 0 7,000,000 7,000,000

Kimco KIM 0 0 0 217,259 217,259

Kinross Gold K 28,380,800 30,780,800 2,400,000 30,780,800 0

Liberty Media Corp LMDIA 2,365,000 2,365,000 0 2,000,000 (365,000)

Market Vectors ETF Trust (Gold) GDX 0 0 0 6,000,000 6,000,000

Marshall and Ilsley MI 0 0 0 12,000,000 12,000,000

Merrill Lynch MER 14,926,700 0 (14,926,700) 0 0

Mirant Corp MIR 18,394,000 18,203,321 (190,679) 18,203,321 0

NRG Energy NRG 5,259,700 0 (5,259,700) 0 0

National City Corp NCC 85,220,000 0 (85,220,000) 0 0


3/12


Northern Trust NTRS 925,000 0 (925,000) 0 0

Peoples United Financial PBCT 2,450,000 2,750,000 300,000 2,750,000 0

Pepsi Bottling PBG 0 0 0 8,371,800 8,371,800

Pepsiamericas PAS 0 0 0 4,185,100 4,185,100

Philip Morris Int'l PM 9,000,200 9,000,200 0 9,000,200 0

Rohm and Haas ROH 18,041,111 15,966,114 (2,074,997) 0 (15,966,114)

St Jude Medical STJ 1,000,000 2,341,400 1,341,400 0 (2,341,400)

Teva Pharmaceutical TEVA 198,730 0 (198,730) 0 0

Time Warner TWC 1,450,000 0 (1,450,000) 0 0

Tronox Inc TRXAQ 2,021,700 0 (2,021,700) 0 0

UST UST 9,895,700 0 (9,895,700) 0 0

Proshares Ultra Short Financials SKF 800,000 0 (800,000) 2,000,000 2,000,000

Wachovia WB 83,500,000 0 (83,500,000) 0 0

Wells Fargo WFC 237,400 0 (237,400) 0 0

Petro Canada PCZ 0 10,311,300 10,311,300 13,146,800 2,835,500

SPDR Gold Trust GLD 0 31,500,000 31,500,000 31,500,000 0

Schering Plough SGP 0 9,000,000 9,000,000 55,072,000 46,072,000

Wyeth WYE 0 30,381,000 30,381,000 48,389,300 18,008,300

Regions Financial RF 0 0 0 35,000,000 35,000,000

Sun Microsystems JAVA 0 0 0 74,000,000 74,000,000

SunTrust Banks STI 0 0 0 1,500,000 1,500,000

Commentary: I have already discussed my impressions of Paulsons bet on financialcompanies so there is no need to rehash that here. Aside from that the main themethat is ever present in his portfolio is his affinity for gold. While he held steady with

31.5M shares of GLD, he added 23M shares of Gold Fields (GFI), 6M shares of theMarket Vectors Gold ETF (GDX) and over 42.8M shares of Anglogold Ashanti (AU).When I saw Paulson speak he made it very clear that he was troubled by the actionsof the Fed and the Treasury and he obviously remains quite concerned about thepossibility of inflation and the declining value of the dollar. This is such anoverwhelming thesis among the hedge fund managers I follow that I dont knowwhether to take it as a contrarian indicator that these people love gold so much orto be really scared about the potential for inflation. Only time will tell. But I continueto hold a large percentage of my investment portfolio in shares of GLD.

Two other minor things to note. First, Paulson bought shares of Pepsi Bottling (PBG)and Pepsiamericas (PAS) during Q2. The only reason that stands out to me is thatDan Loeb, the manager of Third Point (discussed more below) also established astake in those companies during the second quarter. Could be some good researchfodder.

Finally, Paulson seems unafraid to dip his toe into the real estate-based stocks(other than just that banks that are obviously inextricably tied to real estate). In Q2
http://inoculatedinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/08/is-john-paulson-seriously-bullish-on-us.htmlhttp://inoculatedinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/08/is-john-paulson-seriously-bullish-on-us.htmlhttp://inoculatedinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/08/is-john-paulson-seriously-bullish-on-us.htmlhttp://inoculatedinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/08/is-john-paulson-seriously-bullish-on-us.html


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he purchased shares of homebuilder Centex (CTX), commercial REIT Kimco (KIM)and continues to hold over 13M shares of CB Richard Ellis (CBRE), a firm whosefortunes will ultimately be tied to the struggling commercial real estate market.

Third Point- Manager Dan Loeb

Third Point Shares Owned Shares Owned Q4-Q1 Shares Owned Q1-Q2



Biofuel Energy BIOF 5,578,800 5,578,800 0 5,578,800 0

Core Mark Holding CORE 670,000 534,000 (136,000) 0 (534,000)

Depomed Inc DEPO 7,050,000 7,050,000 0 6,790,000 (260,000)

Dinequity Inc DIN 472,900 0 (472,900) 0 0

Energy XXI EXXI 14,940,245 0 (14,940,245) 0 0

Epicor Software EPIC 1,959,800 0 (1,959,800) 0 0

Epicor Software Note 9,000,000 0 (9,000,000) 0 0

Exco Resources XCO 7,191,475 0 (7,191,475) 0 0

Global Brands Acquisition GQN 1,307,700 1,307,700 0 0 (1,307,700)

Global Consumer Acquisition GHC 982,500 982,500 0 0 (982,500)

Greenlight Capital GLRE 718,500 718,500 0 718,500 0

Guaranty Financial GFG 4,399,047 4,399,047 0 2,388,447 (2,010,600)

Hicks Acquisition TOH 750,000 750,000 0 0 (750,000)

Liberty Acquisition LIA 6,914,000 6,914,000 0 6,914,000 0

Lifetime Fitness LTM 95,000 20,000 (75,000) 0 (20,000)

Ligand Pharma LGND 2,007,378 2,007,378 0 2,007,378 0

Maguire Properties MPG 3,248,700 2,895,000 (353,700) 2,410,000 (485,000)

Merrill Lynch MER 250,000 0 (250,000) 0 0

Nabi Biopharma NABI 6,890,000 6,890,000 0 6,890,000 0

PHH Corp PHH 5,210,000 4,890,000 (320,000) 4,480,000 (410,000)

Phoenix Co's PNX 7,044,000 7,524,000 480,000 7,524,000 0

Potash Corp POT 600,000 0 (600,000) 0 0

Rohm and Haas ROH 250,000 0 (250,000) 0 0

Sapphire Industrial FYR 2,000,000 2,000,000 0 0 (2,000,000)

SPDR Gold Trust GLD 900,000 50,000 (850,000) 0 (50,000)

SPDR S&P 500 SPY 458,400 0 (458,400) 0 0

Stream Global OOO 3,125,000 2,825,000 (300,000) 2,825,000 0

Telephone and Data Systems TDS 952,900 0 (952,900) 0 0

Teradata TDC 2,792,000 0 (2,792,000) 0 0

Trian Acquisition TUX 2,750,000 2,750,000 0 2,750,000 0

TripleCrown Acquisition TCW 2,400,000 2,400,000 0 0 (2,400,000)

TXCO TXCO 2,048,700 0 (2,048,700) 0 0

UST UST 400,000 0 (400,000) 0 0


5/12


Vanguard Natural Resources VNR 360,000 0 (360,000) 0 0

Vantage Drilling VTG 1,875,000 1,875,000 0 1,875,000 0

Victoria Acquisition VRY 3,861,700 2,611,700 (1,250,000) 0 (2,611,700)

Wachovia WB 12,510,000 0 (12,510,000) 0 0

Amedisys AMED 0 300,000 300,000 0 (300,000)

Life Partners Holdings LPHI 0 40,000 40,000 0 (40,000)

Legg Mason LMI 0 25,000 25,000 370,000 345,000

Pfizer PFE 0 1,634,875 1,634,875 1,634,875 0

Schering Plough Preferred SGP-B 0 100,000 100,000 100,000 0

Schering Plough SGP 0 250,000 250,000 250,000 0

Wyeth WYE 0 2,675,000 2,675,000 3,150,000 475,000

Allergan AGN 0 0 0 500,000 500,000

American International Group (Converts) AIG-A 0 0 0 1,250,000 1,250,000

Anandarko Petroleum APC 0 0 0 300,000 300,000

Apple AAPL 0 0 0 150,000 150,000

Bank of America BAC 0 0 0 6,650,000 6,650,000

CF Industries Holdings CF 0 0 0 850,000 850,000

Hewlett Packard HPQ 0 0 0 600,000 600,000

Liberty Media LMDIA 0 0 0 700,000 700,000

Lions Gate Entertainment LGF 0 0 0 2,750,000 2,750,000

Molson Coors Brewing TAP 0 0 0 550,000 550,000

NCI Building Systems Note 0 0 0 500,000 500,000

Oracle ORCL 0 0 0 500,000 500,000

Pepsi Bottling PBG 0 0 0 300,000 300,000

Pepsi Americas PAS 0 0 0 400,000 400,000

Quest Communications Q 0 0 0 3,000,000 3,000,000


Transatlantic Holdings TRH 0 0 0 325,200 325,200

Yahoo YHOO 0 0 0 3,000,000 3,000,000

*13D filed on 7/31 for Maguire Properties indicating ownership of 1.8M shares

Commentary: Loeb was very active during Q2, adding a lot of companies to hisportfolio. Most of the additions are well-known blue chips such as Apple (AAPL),Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Oracle (ORCL), and Yahoo (YHOO). Notice a theme there? Hedefinitely thought that the large cap tech players were undervalued when hebought. Obviously the Nasdaq has had quite the nice run since the end of Q2 so it isanyones guess whether or not he has since trimmed these positions. In othermoves, it appears that Loeb either realized the returns he was anticipating orsoured on the SPAC/blank check company space during Q2. After being active in anumber of these, including VRY, TCW, LIA, and TOH, Loeb sold out of all of themother than Trian Acquisition (TUX).


6/12


Finally, Loeb sold a large chunk of his disastrous investment in Guaranty Financial(GFG), a bank that looks like it is on the brink of FDIC receivership. The first time Ilooked at GFG it prompted me to run into my bosss office to tell him that I found agreat new short candidate. It had just been spun off from Temple Inland (TIN) and itwas unambiguous from my perspective that the toxic MBS the company had taken

onto its balance sheet was going to cause GFG a lot of heartache. It just goes toshow that you better really understand the underlying balance sheet of financialcompanies before jumping in. GFG in particular has hurt the returns of a number of prominent funds, including Greenlight, Icahn Capital and Third Point.

Glenview Capital- Manager Larry Robbins

Glenview Capital Shares Owned Shares Owned Q4-Q1 Shares Owned Q1-Q2



Advent Software ADVS 15,174 15,174 0 0 (15,174)

Aetna AET 8,596,022 8,513,612 (82,410) 5,921,679 (2,591,933)

Amdocs DOX 4,349,247 3,474,869 (874,378) 3,224,869 (250,000)

American Tower AMT 799,120 0 (799,120) 0 0

Americsourcebergen ABC 5,354,389 4,214,071 (1,140,318) 7,428,142 3,214,071

Arvinmeritor ARM 3,187,212 4,919,770 1,732,558 6,583,656 1,663,886

Blockbuster BBI-B 2,071,400 1,213,170 (858,230) 1,213,170 0

Burlington Northern Santa Fe BNI 60,700 0 (60,700) 0 0

Cigna CI 7,084,504 10,889,716 3,805,212 8,372,906 (2,516,810)

CSX Corp CSX 234,500 0 (234,500) 0 0

CVS Caremark CVS 4,775,440 6,862,340 2,086,900 6,006,195 (856,145)

RR Donnelley RRD 3,899,441 6,431,784 2,532,343 9,905,125 3,473,341

eBay EBAY 8,265,115 8,096,974 (168,141) 6,902,370 (1,194,604)

Electronic Arts ERTS 1,000,000 500,000 (500,000) 0 (500,000)

Fibertower Corp Note FTWR 19,000,000 0 (19,000,000) 0 0

Fidelity National Information FIS 10,644,675 7,085,245 (3,559,430) 4,929,645 (2,155,600)

First American Corp FAF 1,224,739 454,313 (770,426) 114,000 (340,313)

Fiserve FISV 408,783 3,088,142 2,679,359 634,942 (2,453,200)

Lender Processing Services LPS 758,969 0 (758,969) 0 0

Life Technologies LIFE 453,718 2,220,813 1,767,095 2,999,316 778,503

Macrovision MVSN 5,949,033 2,689,134 (3,259,899) 2,789,134 100,000

McKesson* MCK 5,003,990 2,670,838 (2,333,152) 1,970,838 (700,000)

Nalco NLC 3,216,489 0 (3,216,489) 0 0

Norfolk Southern SNSC 99,000 0 (99,000) 0 0

NRG Energy NRG 2,847,760 0 (2,847,760) 0 0

Omnicare OCR 8,989,488 7,182,155 (1,807,333) 7,199,424 17,269

Primedia PRM 2,497,052 2,497,052 0 2,479,552 (17,500)

RRI Energy RRI 9,033,082 6,200,855 (2,832,227) 0 (6,200,855)

Terrestar Corp TSTR 905,926 905,926 0 1,912,203 1,006,277


7/12


Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO 4,237,773 3,760,373 (477,400) 2,823,767 (936,606)

Tyco International TYC 1,564,710 2,235,000 670,290 0 (2,235,000)

Union Pacific UNP 96,000 0 (96,000) 0 0

United Health UNH 9,184,545 7,933,299 (1,251,246) 7,385,445 (547,854)

Verisign VRSN 3,351,755 1,981,236 (1,370,519) 974,873 (1,006,363)

Virgin Media VMED 4,000,000 0 (4,000,000) 0 0

Wellpoint WLP 6,534,090 6,643,794 109,704 7,135,775 491,981

Willis Group WSH 8,082,595 7,441,722 (640,873) 7,739,722 298,000

B&G Foods BGS 0 59,714 59,714 0 (59,714)

Bank of America BAC 0 2,020,134 2,020,134 5,401,377 3,381,243

Federal Home Loan Mortgage FRE-W 0 1,500,000 1,500,000 0 (1,500,000)

Federal National Mortgage FNM-P 0 1,500,000 1,500,000 0 (1,500,000)

Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 0 2,007,321 2,007,321 10,913,556 8,906,235

Flextronics FLEX 0 5,481,297 5,481,297 15,401,397 9,920,100

Genworth Financial GNW 0 8,838,445 8,838,445 0 (8,838,445)

Hewlett Packard HPQ 0 905,400 905,400 1,574,842 669,442

Oracle ORCL 0 2,637,652 2,637,652 6,387,652 3,750,000

Pfizer PFE 0 3,984,133 3,984,133 0 (3,984,133)

SLM Corp SLM 0 2,500,000 2,500,000 0 (2,500,000)

Walgreen WAG 0 828,600 828,600 3,904,358 3,075,758

Wyeth WYE 0 144,500 144,500 0 (144,500)

Albemarle Corp ALB 0 0 0 238,576 238,576

Allegheny Energy AYE 0 0 0 200,000 200,000

Ball Corp BLL 0 0 0 322,379 322,379

Capital One Financial COF 0 0 0 1,416,700 1,416,700

Express Scripts ESRX 0 0 0 2,439,290 2,439,290

Harman International HAR 0 0 0 1,920,420 1,920,420

Mastercard MA 0 0 0 228,460 228,460

Monsanto MON 0 0 0 100,000 100,000

Regions Financial RF 0 0 0 17,941,667 17,941,667

Sanmina SANM 0 0 0 1,968,563 1,968,563

Sealed Air SEE 0 0 0 771,879 771,879

Sirius Satellite Note 0 0 0 36,750,000 36,750,000

Sonic Automotive Note 0 0 0 18,200,000 18,200,000


SunTrust Banks STI 0 0 0 5,200,000 5,200,000Symantec SYMC 0 0 0 2,903,000 2,903,000

Target Corp TGT 0 0 0 750,000 750,000

Tyco Electronics TEL 0 0 0 1,369,114 1,369,114

US Bancorp USB 0 0 0 1,250,000 1,250,000*McKesson includes calloptions

that were sold as of 3/31


8/12


Commentary: Wow, Larry Robins was a busy man during Q2. He significantlytrimmed his stake in many existing portfolio companies to add a slew of newnames. Similar to the strategy employed by Dan Loeb, Robbins focused his new

purchases on well known large cap companies such as Express Scripts (ESRX).Mastercard (MA), Sealed Air (SEE), Monsanto (MON) and Tyco Electronics (TEL). Also,like Paulson and Loeb, Robbins added shares of Bank of America (BAC), along withother financial companies such as Regions Financial (RF), Capital One (COF), USBancorp (USB), and Fifth Third (FITB). As I noted in my Paulson piece , these stockshave had a strong run since the end of Q2 so it is possible these positions havebeen trimmed a bit. However, I am impressed by the way he and Paulsonanticipated a recovery in the shares of some of the most troubled and beaten downbanks. Were they lucky or were they good? Tough to tell but my guess is that theirinvestors dont care either way.

Finally, it is interesting to see what Robbins sold to fund these new purchases. Hesold his entire stake in Genworth Financial (GNW) and RII (formerly Reliant) Energy(RRI). He also made meaningful cuts to his positions in Aetna (AET), Cigna (CI),Fidelity National (FIS) and Fiserv (FISV). I wonder if he is concerned about whatObamaCare has in store for health service organizations such as CI and AET.

BP Capital: Manager Boone Pickens

BP Capital Shares Owned Shares Owned Q4-Q1 Shares Owned Q1-Q2



Chesapeake Energy CHK 100,000 200,000 100,000 200,000 0

Denbury Resources DNR 100,000 0 (100,000) 0 0

Devon Energy DVN 150,000 250,000 100,000 250,000 0

McMoran Exploration MMR 200,000 200,000 0 0 (200,000)

Occidental Petroleum OXY 100,000 200,000 100,000 200,000 0

Peabody Energy BTU 100,000 0 (100,000) 0 0

Suncor Energy SU 100,000 300,000 200,000 300,000 0

Transocean RIG 300,000 450,000 150,000 325,000 (125,000)

Weatherford WFT 100,000 100,000 0 0 (100,000)

Alpha Natural Resources ANR 0 230,000 230,000 0 (230,000)

Anandarko Petroleum APC 0 50,000 50,000 50,000 0

Cabot Oil and Gas COG 0 200,000 200,000 275,000 75,000

Consol Energy CNX 0 150,000 150,000 0 (150,000)

Fluor Corp FLR 0 59,000 59,000 0 (59,000)

Foster Wheeler FWLT 0 132,000 132,000 0 (132,000)

Halliburton HAL 0 200,000 200,000 0 (200,000)

Massey Energy MEE 0 325,000 325,000 0 (325,000)

Questar Corp STR 0 160,000 160,000 224,000 64,000


9/12


Schlumberger SLB 0 75,000 75,000 0 (75,000)

Forest Oil FST 0 0 0 260,000 260,000

Commentary: Boone Pickens did a whole lot more selling than buying in Q2. He

closed his positions Consol Energy (CNX), Fluor (FLR), Massey Energy (MEE), AlphaNatural Resources (ANR) and Foster Wheeler (FWLT). These moves are interestingbecause many of the original purchases were made in Q1 and quickly closed out bythe end of Q2. The only positions he added to were Cabot Oil and Gas (COG),Questar (STR), and Forest Oil (FST). All in all it appears that Pickens had ratcheteddown his exposure to the energy sector, at least through BP Capital. It makes youwonder whether he is expecting a short term correction within what we know hebelieves is a secular bull market.

Wintergreen Funds: Manager David Winters

Wintergreen Shares Owned Shares Owned Q4-Q1 Shares Owned Q1-Q2



Berkshire B BRK-B 28,619 28,619 0 27,059 (1,560)

Canadian Natural Resource CNQ 609,167 609,167 0 609,167 0

Chesapeake Energy CHK 1,831,793 1,831,793 0 1,686,243 (145,550)

Coca Cola FEMSA COCSF 169,230 169,230 0 169,230 0

Consolidated Tomoka Land CTO 1,481,474 1,481,474 0 1,481,474 0

Fomento Economico FMX 1,339,660 0 (1,339,660) 0 0

Franklin Resources BEN 499,269 500,872 1,603 501,044 172

General Dynamics GD 618,323 618,323 0 595,280 (23,043)

Goldman Sachs GS 278,829 278,829 0 278,829 0

Leucadia National LUK 947,169 697,169 (250,000) 442,169 (255,000)

Reynolds American RAI 1,072,732 1,072,732 0 710,657 (362,075)

SPDR Gold GLD 131,039 131,039 0 131,039 0

Wynn Resorts WYNN 1,589,022 0 (1,589,022) 96,051 96,051

Coca Cola KO 0 179,300 179,300 179,300 0

Fairfax Financial FFH 0 0 0 25,100 25,100

McDonald's MCD 0 0 0 45,750 45,750

Commentary: After a tough year in 2008, David Winters has not made dramaticchanges to his portfolio in 2009. In Q1 he sold out of his Fomento Economic (FMX)and Wynn Resorts (WYNN). In Q2 he trimmed his stakes in Chesapeake Energy(CHK), Leucadia National (LUK), and Reynolds American (RAI) while adding smallpositions in McDonalds (MCD) and Fairfax Financial (FFH). He also bought back intoWYNN during Q2. In contrast to Dan Loeb and Larry Robbins, Winters has pursuedthe strategy of concentrating on the names he is comfortable with and not tinkeringtoo much with the portfolio. The reason it is interesting to examine Winters strategy


10/12


is that it gives potential investors an idea of how he approaches volatile markets incomparison to managers like Loeb and Robbins.

Icahn Capital- Manager Carl Icahn

Icahn Capital Shares Owned Shares Owned Q4-Q1 Shares Owned Q1-Q2



Adventrx Pharma ANX 3,459,459 3,459,459 0 3,459,459 0

Amicus Therapeutics FOLD 145,427 0 (145,427) 0 0

Amylin Pharma AMLN 11,426,157 12,971,328 1,545,171 12,971,328 0

Anandarko Petroleum APC 7,617,876 0 (7,617,876) 0 0

Biogen Idec BIIB 12,860,205 12,860,205 0 12,860,205 0

Blockbuster CLA BBI-A 10,523,840 10,523,840 0 10,523,840 0

Blockbuster CLB BBI-B 4,452,905 4,452,905 0 4,452,905 0

Cyberonics CYBX 2,008,612 2,107,972 99,360 2,107,972 0

Emisphere Technologies EMIS 86,430 86,430 0 86,430 0

Endo Pharma ENDP 1,506,080 1,129,126 (376,954) 1,129,126 0

Enzon Pharma ENZN 2,457,683 2,816,861 359,178 2,816,861 0

Exelixis Inc EXEL 2,357,110 2,357,110 0 2,357,110 0

Forestar Real Estate FOR 397,720 0 (397,720) 0 0

Guaranty Financial GFG 14,696,320 14,696,320 0 14,696,320 0

Life Technologies LIFE 196,507 0 (196,507) 0 0

Lions Gate LGF 8,959,668 13,432,899 4,473,231 16,578,320 3,145,421Medarex MEDX 313,040 313,040 0 313,040 0

Motorola MOT 119,790,447 119,790,447 0 119,790,447 0

Regeneron Pharma REGN 2,508,001 2,508,001 0 2,508,001 0

Take Two Interactive TTWO 541,128 2,007,445 1,466,317 2,007,445 0

Temple Inland TIN 1,448,779 0 (1,448,779) 0 0

Wendy's Arby's WEN 643,590 643,590 0 643,590 0

Williams Co WMB 17,475,520 360,000 (17,115,520) 0 (360,000)

Yahoo YHOO 60,452,099 60,452,099 0 60,452,099 0

Lions Gate Note 0 800,000 800,000 923,000 123,000Proshares Ultra Short Real

Estate SRS 0 24,000 24,000 26,400 2,400

Commentary: What stands out about Icahns Q2 portfolio is the utter lack of activity.Aside from adding to his bet on Lions Gate (LGF) and increasing his stake in theProshares Ultra Short Real Estate ETF (SRS), the only other position change was thesale of his remaining stake in Williams Companies (WMB). However, Icahn still holdslarge stakes in Blockbuster (BBI), Motorola (MOT), and a number of pharmaceutical


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and biotech companies. From what I have read he continues to take an activist rolewith a number of these companies. The thing about special situations in general isthat sometimes the returns are market agnostic, meaning that the outcome of theactivists attempts to influence the company play a bigger role in the movement of the stock than does the overall direction of the market. Accordingly, investors

cannot assume that the lack of changes in the portfolio, despite many compellingvaluations during Q2, is necessarily negative.

Lone Pine-Manager Steve Mandel

Lone Pine Shares OwnedSharesOwned Q4-Q1

SharesOwned Q1-Q2



Abercrombie and Fitch ANF 3,364,819 0 (3,364,819) 0 0

Activision Blizzard ATVI 20,261,910 6,511,264 (13,750,646) 0 (6,511,264)

America Movil AMX 24,007,275 18,641,417 (5,365,858) 11,784,662 (6,856,755)

Bunge Limited BG 550,000 0 (550,000) 0 0Carnival Corp CCL 7,923,647 8,494,358 570,711 0 (8,494,358)

Coach COH 6,172,333 8,787,008 2,614,675 8,586,210 (200,798)

Deltek PROJ 2,206,293 2,206,293 0 3,564,426 1,358,133

Dolby Labs DLB 4,858,460 2,101,333 (2,757,127) 0 (2,101,333)

Fomento Economico FMX 1,629,254 7,834,394 6,205,140 7,222,748 (611,646)

Google GOOG 844,016 591,399 (252,617) 476,284 (115,115)

JP Morgan JPM 12,339,623 15,599,128 3,259,505 15,544,028 (55,100)

Las Vegas Sands LVLS 18,677,261 31,341,283 12,664,022 0 (31,341,283)

Lorillard LO 3,639,511 0 (3,639,511) 0 0

Mastercard MA 2,921,408 2,102,320 (819,088) 1,199,834 (902,486)Monsanto MON 4,230,159 4,356,164 126,005 7,827,264 3,471,100

MSC Indl Direct MSM 4,923,117 3,006,797 (1,916,320) 1,782,137 (1,224,660)

Precision Castparts PCP 3,639,765 2,621,911 (1,017,854) 1,584,411 (1,037,500)

Priceline PCLN 3,604,068 2,599,444 (1,004,624) 2,339,444 (260,000)

Qualcomm QCOM 20,270,480 18,719,202 (1,551,278) 15,905,742 (2,813,460)

Sandringe Energy SD 6,616,611 6,616,611 0 6,616,611 0

Charles Schwab SCHW 7,568,466 0 (7,568,466) 0 0

Sears Holdings SHLD 3,167,900 500,000 (2,667,900) 500,000 0

SPDR Gold GLD 1,760,000 26,500,000 24,740,000 3,453,500 (23,046,500)

Teradata TDC 10,007,277 0 (10,007,277) 0 0

Union Pacific UNP 6,885,633 7,199,986 314,353 1,951,597 (5,248,389)

Visa V 8,435,552 9,105,957 670,405 6,786,223 (2,319,734)

XTO Energy XTO 3,973,533 2,667,833 (1,305,700) 2,468,287 (199,546)

Apollo Group APOL 0 1,888,980 1,888,980 0 (1,888,980)

Coca Cola KO 0 2,819,152 2,819,152 5,636,263 2,817,111

Ctrip Com Int'l CTRP 0 3,547,917 3,547,917 0 (3,547,917)

Deckers Outdoor DECK 0 1,093,072 1,093,072 0 (1,093,072)


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Mead Johnson Nutrition MJN 0 1,197,755 1,197,755 854,660 (343,095)

Medco Health Solutions MHS 0 5,949,700 5,949,700 0 (5,949,700)

Pepsico PEP 0 3,585,600 3,585,600 0 (3,585,600)

Philip Morris Int'l PM 0 10,080,369 10,080,369 8,199,646 (1,880,723)

SLM Corp SLM 0 14,050,386 14,050,386 0 (14,050,386)

Strayer Education STRA 0 785,164 785,164 1,282,513 497,349

Urban Outfitter URBN 0 7,598,405 7,598,405 5,434,420 (2,163,985)

*VistaPrint Limited VPRT 0 258,100 258,100 1,798,938 1,540,838

Discovery Communications DISCA 0 0 0 22,110 22,110

Ecolab ECL 0 0 0 3,485,258 3,485,258

Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 0 0 0 3,652,258 3,652,258

Grupo Aeropoptario Del Pac PAC 0 0 0 588,218 588,218

Grupo Aeropoptario Del Sur ASR 0 0 0 365,200 365,200

Hewlett Packard HPQ 0 0 0 8,464,323 8,464,323

Liberty Media (Series A) LMDIA 0 0 0 3,579,643 3,579,643

McDonald's MCD 0 0 0 8,453,315 8,453,315

Melco Crown Entertainment MPEL 0 0 0 15,964,463 15,964,463

Mindray Medical MR 0 0 0 440,713 440,713

Pactiv PTV 0 0 0 2,971,263 2,971,263

Nike NKE 0 0 0 4,495,652 4,495,652

Progressive Corp PGR 0 0 0 515,194 515,194

Smithfield Foods SFD 0 0 0 11,116,850 11,116,850

Southwestern Energy SWN 0 0 0 1,696,567 1,696,567

SunTrust Bank STI 0 0 0 500,000 500,000

*13G filed on 7/31 indicated ownership of 2,365,511 shares of VPRT

Commentary: Steve Mandel definitely took a page of out the Larry Robbins playbook(or vice versa) in Q2. Mandel took the initiative in Q2 to trim his positions in anumber of companies to buy some blue chips such as Nike (NKE), MCD, and HPQ.He also added large stakes in Smithfield Foods (SFD) and Melco CrownEntertainment (MPEL) as well as dipping his toe into the financial space by buyingFITB and SunTrust Banks (STI). To finance these acquisitions he sold out of a numberof positions, including: Pepsico (PEP), SLM Corp (SLM), Medco Health Solutions(MHS), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Apollo Group (APOL), Las Vegas Sands (LVS),Carnival Corp (CCL) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI). He also meaningfully cut his

stakes in Urban Outfitters (URBN), Visa (V), Union Pacific (UNP), and America Movil(AMX). However, one of the most interesting moves from my perspective is his saleof 23M shares of GLD. Did he move to bullion instead? Did he change his position oninflation and dollar debasement? Was it just a hedge that he felt he could take off?He still owns about 3M shares but this was a significant move within his portfolio.

Documents

Trends and Themes as Reflected by Fund’s 13F Filings