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1
THE URBAN
OPPORTUNITY C H R I S B U S C H
N O R T H E R C A L I F O R N I A C O R P O R AT E R E A L
E S TAT E F O R U M
S E P T E M B E R 2 2 , 2 0 1 5
2
ROADMAP 1. Summary Insights
2. Trend analysis
3. How – 12 Guidelines
4. Acknowledge the challenges
5. By the numbers – Benefits quantified
3
SUMMARY INSIGHTS
1. Location efficiency is crucial for
sustainable urbanization.
2. Trends are heading in the right
direction.
3. Smart growth will…
Directly support the success of your companies.
Produce stronger overall economic growth as part of triple bottom line benefits
4
ROADMAP 1. Summary Insights
2. Trend analysis Changing preferences – People increasingly want it
Economic – The market is rewarding it
Policy – Government leaders are demanding it
3. How – 12 Guidelines
4. By the numbers – Benefits quantified
5. Acknowledge the challenges
5
MILLENNIALS ARE DIFFERENT A N D A R E T H E L A R G E S T PA R T O F T H E W O R K F O R C E
Evidence of changing mobility and
neighborhood preferences.
51%
43%
38%
55%
69%
75%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
MILLENIAL GEN X BABY BOOM
Preference for walkable neighorhoods
Driver's licence within one year of eligibility
Sources: http://nitc.trec.pdx.edu/new/millenials-favor-walkable-communities-says-poll-national-association-realtor-and-trec
http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/files/III-Handy-FINAL-Asilomar-2015.pdf (driver’s license data, from UC Davis survey results)
7
MILLENNIALS ARE DIFFERENT A N D A R E T H E L A R G E S T PA R T O F T H E W O R K F O RCE
Car ownership no longer a
gateway to adulthood.
8
MILLENNIALS ARE DIFFERENT A N D A R E T H E L A R G E S T PA R T O F T H E W O R K F O R C E
41% of millennials use public
transit, compared to:
28% Gen X
19% Boomer
8% Senior
9
CHANGING PREFERENCES FOR HOUSING W H E R E Y O U R E M P L O Y E E S A R E G O I N G T O B E L I V I N G
CA expected demand in 2035 for residential units compared to 2010 supply
Arthur Nelson. 2011. The New California Dream. Urban Land Institute.
10
CHANGING PREFERENCES FOR HOUSING W H E R E Y O U R E M P L O Y E E S A R E G O I N G T O B E L I V I N G
CA trends in Demand and Supply of Transit Station Accessible (TSA) Units
4 million unit
deficit
Arthur Nelson. 2011. The New California Dream. Urban Land Institute.
12
THE SHIFT IN INNOVATION TO CIT Y CENTERS
San Francisco metro
receives 74% more
venture capital investment
than San Jose metro
Florida, Richard, 2014, “Startup City: The
Urban Shift in Venture Capital and High
Technology,” Martin Prosperity Institute,
University of Toronto (March).
Top 20 Metros for Venture Capital Investment (2013)
+74%
13
CORE VALUES: WHY AMERICAN COMPANIES ARE
MOVING DOWNTOWN
Study surveyed 500 companies that had changed office locations
Authors: Smart Growth America, Cushman & Wakefield, GWU
Center for Real Estate and Urban Analysis
14
POLICYMAKERS ARE DEMANDING IT
Some examples:
SB 375
SB 743: Changes to CEQA
Surgeon General’s Call to Action
“Building more walkable places can help combat chronic disease”
15
ROADMAP 1. Summary Insights
2. Trend analysis
3. How – 12 Guidelines
4. Acknowledge the challenges
5. By the numbers – Benefits quantified
THE 12 GUIDELINES
URBAN FORM
1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE
TRANSPORTATION
6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
ENERGY AND RESOURCES
9. GREEN BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE MANAGEMENT
12. WATER EFFICIENCY
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
ATLANTA EMITS 10X MORE TRANSPORT-RELATED CARBON EMISSIONS THAN BARCELONA
Source: The New Climate Economy; http://newclimateeconomy.report/cities/
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
HOW COPENHAGEN MATCHES
DENSITY TO TRANSIT CAPACITY
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENT APPROVED FOR 5TH AND MISSIONS IN SAN FRANCISCO
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENT PLANNED TO REVIVE VALCO MALL IN CUPERTINO
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
San Francisco Vancouver New York
Portland Shanghai Beijing
BLOCK SIZES IN VARIOUS CITIES AT SAME SCALE
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
Revitalization cost
$115 million
Surrounding area has
seen $2 billion in
private investment
8,000 construction
jobs, 12,000
permanent jobs
Doubling of apartment
values near the park
HIGH LINE PARK,
NEW YORK CITY
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY Source: http://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/html/pedestrians/broadway.shtml
NYC GREEN LIGHT FOR MIDTOWN PROJECT
From 2009-2011
Property values in area up 29%. Rest of NYC down 6-36%
Injuries to motorists and passengers down 63%
Pedestrian injuries down 35%
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
GUANGZHOU:
SAME STREET BEFORE AND AFTER BRT
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
LONDON CONGESTION CHARGE
Reduced Congestion by 30%
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
PARKVIEW GREEN IN BEIJING
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
SOLAR PANELS IN VAUBAN, GERMANY
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
SAN FRANCISCO WASTE MANAGEMENT
As of 2010, 77% of waste is re-directed away from landfill
THE 12 GUIDELINES
1. URBAN GROWTH
BOUNDARY
2. TRANSIT-
ORIENTED
DEVELOPMENT
3. MIXED-USE
4. SMALL BLOCKS
5. PUBLIC GREEN
SPACE
6. NON-MOTORIZED
TRANSIT
7. PUBLIC TRANSIT
8. CAR CONTROL
9. GREEN
BUILDINGS
10. RENEWABLE
AND DISTRICT
ENERGY
11. WASTE
MANAGEMENT
12. WATER
EFFICIENCY
EFFICIENT TARGETING IN WATER
33
ROADMAP 1. Summary Insights
2. Trend analysis
3. How – 12 Guidelines
4. Acknowledge the challenges
NIMBY-ism
5. By the numbers – Benefits quantified
34
ROADMAP 1. Summary Insights
2. Trend analysis
3. How – 12 Guidelines
4. Acknowledge the challenges
5. By the numbers – Benefits quantified
McKinsey analysis of eco-districts
California smart growth benefits
MCKINSEY ANALYSIS OF ECO-DISTRICTS ”Building the Cities of the Future with Green Districts”
• Three regions studied
• Similar technologies and
design features to 12
Guidelines.
• Economic and
environmental benefits
northern North America
the Yangtze Delta in China
the Persian Gulf
Strong economic performance:
Breakeven rate: 3 – 5 years
Internal rate of return: 18 – 30 percent
Construction costs: + $1,000 to $4,000 per resident
Annual savings: – $250 to $1,200 per person
MCKINSEY ANALYSIS OF ECO-DISTRICTS
Multi-faceted environmental benefits:
30 to 50% lower air emissions
Private vehicle travel reduced 50-80%
20 to 40% lower energy consumption
60 to 65% less water consumption
25% less solid waste to landfill
MCKINSEY ANALYSIS OF ECO-DISTRICTS
24-28 million tons of carbon dioxide
equivalent reduced, given current policy
CLOSER TO HOME Quantification of benefits in California
Current Plans More Compact Infill Focus
Economic impacts quantified (2015$)
Household cost savingsa
Cumulative to 2030 $28.9 billion $72.1 billion $91.1 billion
Annual per average household in 2030 $600 $1,600 $2,000
Avoided public health costsb
Cumulative to 2030 $2.6 billion $6.4 billion $8.2 billion
Annual in 2030 $321 million $853 million $1,040 million
Infrastructure cost savingsc
Cumulative to 2030 $9.3 billion $12.4 billion $18.5 billion
Environmental impacts quantified
Criteria pollutant emissions avoidedd
Cumulative to 2030 217,000 tons 532,000 tons 686,000 tons
Annual in 2030 19,000 tons 50,000 tons 61,000 tons
Residential water savingse
Cumulative to 2030 52,600 acre-feet 124,200 acre-feet 154,900 acre-feet
Annual average per new household in 2030 9,300 gallons 21,900 gallons 27,300 gallons
Land conservationf
Cumulative to 2030 270 sq mi 490 sq mi 700 sq mi
CLOSER TO HOME Quantification of benefits in California