# Trend Data Guest Speakers: Pattie Johnson, TRI Sally Simich, ODE

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Trend Data Guest Speakers: Pattie Johnson, TRI Sally Simich, ODE. Why Use Trend Data . Visual representation of multiple years of data to reveal a pattern of gradual change over time To convey data clearly and accurately To reveal or see patterns in the data - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

### Text of Trend Data Guest Speakers: Pattie Johnson, TRI Sally Simich, ODE

Oregons Youth are Busy! What Can Districts Learn?

Trend DataGuest Speakers: Pattie Johnson, TRISally Simich, ODE

Why Use Trend Data Visual representation of multiple years of data to reveal a pattern of gradual change over timeTo convey data clearly and accurately To reveal or see patterns in the data To motivate an audience to use data To facilitate accurate and efficient interpretations of the data while minimizing the likelihood of misrepresenting data Many individuals learn better through pictures than words; graphs help people remember the information

Item 5 particularly important for small districts with few leavers2Graphs are Common Inaccurate scale or axisWrong type of graph Too much or too little data being displayed

Bad Graph Contestants Forbes.com 2012A bad graph is one that misrepresents the data or leads to misinterpretation of the information or one that serves no other purpose than to be pretty. LOVE THIS! pj3Considerations for Displaying DataScale should be to 100 when showing percents Avoid 3D graphs Consider the audience More sophisticated audience = more sophisticated graph Consider the taskWhat do you want the audience to do with the information Know a specific percentage or number (e.g., 79% of youth with disabilities are engaged one year after leaving high school)Make comparisons (e.g., males are more engaged than females) See trends and patterns over time (e.g., since 2010 the percent of youth engaged has steadily increased).Questions Guiding a Trend Analysis How representative are these data? What direction are our outcomes going?Are there differences in outcomes by subgroups? Gender, Disability, Method of Exit, and EthnicityWhat is contributing to our outcomes?How can we use the information?Analysis: combine three years work of follow up interview results in small

5Lets look at some overall data trends across the four years of consistent data collection

PSO Data Collection All districts are required to participate each year. Student selection is based on a stratified sample designed to generate a representative sample of leavers to ensure generalizable information. Districts select who will conduct the interviews, and data entry is open from June through September. Interviews can be completed with young adult or their family members.Oregons PSO data have consistently been representative on all subgroups except dropouts 7

Response RateSample Leavers, Response Rate, and Completed Interviews for Four YearsAdd 2012 data

Hi ed increasing, competitive emply down, other sch down, other emp same, ne increased9What do we see in the trends?Higher Education initial increase, then staticCompetitive Employment IncreasingMore Oregon leavers employed than in educationOther School and Other Work relatively unchangedNot Engaged rate decreasing right direction until last year Why look further? To target resources to specific needs

The variables to explore

Limited time to look at more

10Are there differences in outcomes by subgroups?

Gender x 3 yearsDisability categories x 3 yearsEthnicity categories x 3 yearsMethod of Exit x 3 years Looking at Data: Process summary How representative are these data? Explore the response size and how the subgroups matched the populationWhat direction are the outcomes going?Look at graphs showing performance, trends, and comparisons Examine outcomes by subgroups.Work from general overview to more specific componentsExplore what is contributing to the outcomes.Look at a combination of components; extra questions asked as part of the survey; collect or examine other data

Not taking time to go over all the results, but selecting descriptive components for exploration

Iterative process case dependent13Two Follow Up Report FormatsDistrict level summary reports

Engagement Report includes information on who is engaged by subgroup and if the sample of students interviewed matches the total district leavers

Interview Summary Report summarize your interview data, including the open ended responses given by the interviewee. Pattie for awhile

Reports are on a secure state data system and contain all district level student information14Using the ReportsMonitor your progress on the 2014 data collection constantly updatedCompare current district response rate, engagement rate, and representativeness to final results from 2012, 2011, and 2010 Examine results of changes the district is making in transition services over time152013 Engagement Report.16Goal

Update with new data- state level data

5 numbers: HE, CE, PSE/T, SOE, NERR/RepresentativenessDisaggregations: engagement X race/ethnicity, gender, dis cat, method of exit 16Sample District subgroup 17

Update with State level data 17Sample District Data Representative?18

18District and State comparisons

Compare results with like sized districts19Questions for the district to consider when looking at reportsWhat do the most recent data show?Can we make district-wide statements using our results, or have we missed dropouts or other groups?Are our students going on to school within a year?Are they able to get and keep jobs for at least 3 months?What percentage of our students are actively working or learning within a year of leaving?Do we have more than a third of our leavers who havent done any work or training after leaving high school?Are we getting better at launching successful students?

Sally takes over20How is ODE holding districts accountable for student PSO?

PSO is separate application available to secondary transition staff at district level.

Now PSO will be included with monitoring indicators with notification if district failed to meet state targetsSPR&I Monitoring Report on Secondary Transition Indicators: PSO

Overall engagement rate: Percent enrolled in higher education, competitively employed within one year of leaving high school, in some other postsecondary education or training program or in some other employment. [(# of youth who are no longer in secondary school, had IEPs in effect at the time they left school and were enrolled in higher education, or in some other postsecondary education or training program; or competitively employed or in some other employment) divided by the (# of respondent youth who are no longer in secondary school and had IEPs in effect at the time they left school)] times 100.

Highlight the cells if fail to meet state average response rate, or state engagement target for A + B + C22SPR&I Monitoring Report on Secondary Transition Indicators: PSO

AccountabilityWhat Is working for the district? Where is more effort needed?

Administrators will need to explore the reports on the Post School Outcomes Application to learn about subgroup results and trends: Disability Method of exit Gender Race/Ethnicity Like-sized districts

Next Steps for Districts Share and discuss data with stakeholders Identify areas of strength and areas for improvement Use data to determine what changes are needed25For more information:

Sally SimichTransition Specialist, Oregon Department of EducationSally.simich@state.ou.us 503-947-5639

Pattie JohnsonTeaching Research Institute, Western Oregon Universityjohnsop@wou.edu 503-838-8779

Charlotte Y. AlversonNational Post School Outcomes Center, University of Oregoncalverso@uoregon.edu 541-346-1390

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