TransUnion CIBIL Industry Insights Report · Customers aged between 20-49 form the bulk of the market in terms of volumes as well as value and are likely to be the biggest growth

TransUnion CIBIL Industry Insights Report

Quarterly overview of consumer credit trends released by TransUnion CIBIL

SECOND QUARTER 2018

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary ............................................... 4 Bankcard Summary ............................................ 7 Unsecured Installment Loan Summary ............. 10 Auto Loan Summary ......................................... 13 Mortgage Summary .......................................... 16 Loans Against Property Summary .................... 19

Report Overview and Definitions .......................... 21

Account-Level Insights ............................................. 25 Bankcard .............................................................. 25

Total Account Volumes ..................................... 26 Total Account Balances .................................... 27 Average Account Balance ................................. 28 Distribution of Unit Delinquency Rates .............. 29 Distribution of Rupee Delinquency Rates.......... 30 Total Reported New Account Originations ........ 31

Unsecured Installment Loans ............................... 32 Total Account Volumes ..................................... 33 Total Account Balances .................................... 34 Average Account Balance ................................. 35 Distribution of Unit Delinquency Rates .............. 36 Distribution of Rupee Delinquency Rates.......... 37 Total Reported New Account Originations ........ 38 Total Reported New Account Balances ............ 39 Average Reported New Account Balance ......... 40

Auto Loan ............................................................. 41 Total Account Volumes ..................................... 42 Total Account Balances .................................... 43 Average Account Balance ................................. 44 Distribution of Unit Delinquency Rates .............. 45 Distribution of Rupee Delinquency Rates.......... 46 Total Reported New Account Originations ........ 47 Total Reported New Account Balances ............ 48 Average Reported New Account Balance ......... 49

Mortgage .............................................................. 50 Total Account Volumes ..................................... 51 Total Account Balances .................................... 52 Average Account Balance ................................. 53 Distribution of Unit Delinquency Rates .............. 54 Distribution of Rupee Delinquency Rates.......... 55 Total Reported New Account Originations ........ 56 Total Reported New Account Balances ............ 57 Average Reported New Account Balance ......... 58

Loans Against Property ........................................ 59 Total Account Volumes ..................................... 60 Total Account Balances .................................... 61 Average Account Balance ................................. 62 Distribution of Unit Delinquency Rates .............. 63 Distribution of Rupee Delinquency Rates.......... 64 Total Reported New Account Originations ........ 65 Total Reported New Account Balances ............ 66 Average Reported New Account Balance ......... 67

Consumer-Level Insights .......................................... 68 Bankcard .............................................................. 68

Total Number of Consumers with Access to an Active Trade ...................................................... 69 Total Number of Consumers with a Balance ..... 70 Percentage of Borrowers with a Delinquent Balance ............................................................. 71 Average Number of Accounts Per Consumer ... 72 Average Total Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance ........................ 73

Unsecured Installment Loan ................................. 74 Total Number of Consumers with a Balance ..... 75 Percentage of Borrowers with a Delinquent Balance ............................................................. 76 Average Number of Accounts Per Consumer ... 77 Average Total Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance ........................ 78

Auto Loan ............................................................. 79 Total Number of Consumers with a Balance ..... 80 Percentage of Borrowers with a Delinquent Balance ............................................................. 81 Average Number of Accounts Per Consumer ... 82 Average Total Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance ........................ 83

Mortgages ............................................................. 84 Total Number of Consumers with a Balance ..... 85 Percentage of Borrowers with a Delinquent Balance ............................................................. 86 Average Number of Accounts Per Consumer ... 87 Average Total Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance ........................ 88

Loans Against Property ........................................ 89 Total Number of Consumers with a Balance ..... 90 Percentage of Borrowers with a Delinquent Balance ............................................................. 91 Average Number of Accounts Per Consumer ... 92 Average Total Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance ........................ 93

REPORT OVERVIEW AND DEFINITIONS

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Executive Summary

For purposes of this report, retail lending includes the following products: auto loans,

used car loans, home loans, loans against property, personal loans (unsecured

installment loans), consumer durable loans, education loans, credit cards (bankcards),

and two wheeler loans.

Retail lending continued to grow across all lending products as the number of live

accounts grew by 26.2% in Q2 2018 compared to a year earlier in Q2 2017. It is

noteworthy that the number of live retail lending accounts crossed the 100 million mark

in this quarter. In parallel, new account originations increased by 30.1% in Q1 2018

compared to the same quarter a year earlier, a robust acceleration from the originations

growth observed in the year 2017. New account originations are reported a quarter in

arrears to account for time lag by lenders in reporting new account originations and to

improve the accuracy of originations counts and balances.

India is currently in the midst of a structural transformation from a savings-focused and

debt-averse country to a consumption-focused leveraged economy. This transformation

is due to multiple factors: demographics, urbanization, rising digitalization and

consequent rise of ecommerce, improved access to retail lending, enhanced exposure

to the world and within India and resultant emulation effect.

Hence, the broad trend of volume expansion and account balance compression due to

the increasing proportion of short-term, low ticket size consumption lending continued to

exert its dominance.

Average ticket sizes have fallen for the past three years and volume growth has

outstripped aggregate origination balances. This is due to the fact that the share of

consumption lending products (credit card, personal loan and consumer durable loan)

as a percentage of total origination account volumes has increased from 65.3% in Q1

2016 to 73.5% in Q1 2017 and further on to 74.4% in Q1 2018. Consumption lending

products typically have smaller average balances than asset lending products such as

housing, auto and two-wheeler loans.

As expected, healthy growth in originations was accompanied by robust growth in

overall balances. The aggregate balance of all retail lending products increased by

27.3% over the past year to reach INR 27.9 trillion in Q2 2018. The increase was a

result of a 26.2% year-over-year increase in total account volumes accompanied by a

small 0.9% growth in average balance per account, for reasons noted above.

As of June 2018, approximately 76.2 million consumers had access to a live retail

lending facility – an increase of 23.9% over the previous year. This increase in the


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number of consumers with access to credit demonstrates that lenders are successfully

expanding their retail lending consumer base as opposed to extending additional credit

to the same pool of borrowers.

Average retail lending consumer balances increased by around 5.6% from INR 615K in

Q2 2017 to INR 649K in Q2 2018. Low double-digit annual increases in average

consumer balances of credit cards and personal loans were counterbalanced by

continued declines in consumer durables and loans against property and more modest

increases in vehicle financing products like auto loans and two wheeler loans as well as

mortgages.

From a geographic perspective, the retail lending industry continues to be driven

primarily by the urban concentration prevalent in the country. This is amply clear from

the fact that the top three states in terms of retail lending – Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu

and Karnataka – account for nearly 40% of aggregate balances as well as 32% of the

credit active population. To put things into perspective, these three states account for

just about a fifth of the overall population of the country.

Another way to look at the urban concentration is to measure the contribution of the

eight biggest urban agglomerations in the country – Mumbai, National Capital Region

(NCR), Chennai, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Pune and Ahmedabad – collectively

referred to as the Tier-1 cities, to the aggregate retail lending industry.

These Tier-1 cities had a share of 46.5% and 39.3% in aggregate origination balances

and origination volumes respectively in Q1 2018. Analysis of the balance sheet from this

perspective clearly reveals the overwhelming dominance of the Tier-1 cities. These

eight cities together accounted for half of the aggregate retail financing balance sheet in

Q2 2018, primarily due to significantly higher share in high value products like

mortgages and loans against property (LAP).

Credit cards are the most concentrated product with the Tier-1 cities accounting for

around three-fourths of the aggregate balance sheet. Two wheeler loans are probably

the most mature product in terms of geographic diversification as the Tier-1 cities’ share

is less than one-fourth of the aggregate industry.

Demographics is probably the single most important factor driving the fortunes of an

economy as well as the lending market. People in the age group of 30-39 form the

biggest segment of the industry,representing 31.6% of the aggregate credit-active

population (defined a people having a credit facility outstanding at that point of time).

The 40-49 and 20-29 age tiers are the next two biggest segments with shares of 24.0%

and 19.3% respectively.


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From the balances perspective, the 40-49 age group is the biggest segment with a

balances share of 30.1%, closely followed by the 30-39 age group with a share of

30.0% and 50-59 age group with a share of 20.9%.

Consumers in the 20-29 age group comprise around 8% of total balances – significantly

lower than their 19% share in total consumer base. Thus, the age group 20-29 has the

lowest average consumer balance of INR 267K – significantly lower than the average

balance in the range of INR 600-900K for the other age groups.

These lower average balances for the youngest age group are due to several factors.

These consumers are early in their working careers and likely have lower incomes on

average, which may limit the amounts they are eligible to borrow. As well, their lending

product mix is likely more focused on low-value, high-volume products like consumer

durable loans, personal loans, credit cards and two wheeler loans, as opposed to larger

ticket housing and auto loans.

Customers aged between 20-49 form the bulk of the market in terms of volumes as well

as value and are likely to be the biggest growth drivers of the industry. This is the

segment that is likely to witness the fiercest battle for market share by lenders. Deeper

understanding of the consumer behavior of these segments is crucial to gaining and

safeguarding market share.

In terms of gender dynamics, the industry continues to remain overwhelmingly

dominated by men, with a share of more than three-fourths of the aggregate credit

active population. It is noteworthy that that women, while far smaller in terms of the total

borrowing population, have an average consumer balance of around INR 915 K –

significantly higher than the average balance of INR 573K for men. This is largely

explained by the fact that mortgages provide a third of all female consumers – largely in

the form of joint accounts. The comparatively lower level of women penetration is a

significant growth opportunity for industry.

Delinquency rates for most major retail lending products declined or remained relatively

stable over the year ended Q2 2018, indicating that consumers continue to do a good

job of managing their credit obligations. The exception was loans against property,

which saw a year-over-year increase of 65 bps.

In summary, the retail lending industry has continued to expand in a robust and

sustainable manner. Account originations and balances have grown significantly over

the past year, with particular growth in lower-ticket consumption lending products. More

consumers have gained access to credit, while delinquency rates are at controlled

levels and have generally remained flat or trended lower.


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Bankcard Summary

The significant increase in growth in activity from the first quarter of 2017

onwards indicates that credit cards have been the biggest beneficiaries of the

demonetization exercise. The number of consumers with access to credit cards

as well as aggregate balances reached all-time high levels. Origination activity

has increased at the same time. Balance growth was largely led by consumers in

the prime and near prime risk tiers, and delinquencies continued to remain stable.

BANKCARD METRICS Q2 2018 Q-O-Q

CHANGE Y-O-Y

CHANGE

Number of Accounts (Millions) 36.6 6.8% 23.3%

Outstanding Balance (INR Billions) 796 5.8% 42.2%

Average Balance per Consumer (INR '000) 49 1.8% 11.2%

Average Balance per Account (INR '000) 22 -0.9% 15.4%

Number of Consumers Carrying a Balance (Millions) 16.6 3.9% 27.6%

Origination Volumes (Q1 2018) Millions 2.88 2.1% 21.2%

Account-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) 0.89% 1 bps 17 bps

Balance-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) 1.73% 3 bps 22 bps

Before we proceed with the detailed industry analysis of the bankcard segment, it is

important to analyze the ways in which the digital transaction habits of the Indian

consumers have changed on account of the demonetization exercise. For the sake of

brevity, we will just focus on the 20-month average behavior of the following key metrics

(source: RBI) both before and after demonetization:

Average monthly transactions on credit cards at point of sale (POS) terminals

increased from 70 million between March 2015 (Pre Demonetization Period) to

117 million between November 2016 and June 2018 (Post Demonetization

Period) – a growth of 67%.

In parallel, the average monthly transactions of debit cards at POS terminals

grew by 171% to 291 million in the same time period.

Average monthly spend of credit cards at POS terminals increased by 73% from

217 billion in the pre demonetization period to INR 375 billion in the post

demonetization period.

Concomitantly, debit cards average monthly spends at POS terminals increased

by a whopping 181% to INR 406 billion.


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Total spending on credit and debit cards as a percentage of the nominal private

final consumption expenditure has increased from around 5.9% in Q3 2016 to an

average of 9.1% over the six quarter following demonetization.

Thus, it would be fair to say that demonetization provided a massive boost to the

industry and has led to a regime change in the behavior of the consumers. The

subsequent high growth of the industry needs to be analyzed from this perspective.

The number of consumers with access to a bankcard grew by 23.3% year-over-year,

reaching an all-time high of 36.6 million consumers in Q2 2018. Origination activity has

expanded at the same time, with the number of new accounts opened in Q1 2018—the

most recent quarterly data available—expanding by around 21% compared to the Q1

2017. After increasing at the rate of around 50% for the four quarters of 2017, growth

has finally started moderating on account of the high base effect. However, it is

noteworthy that the rate of new cards originations is fast approaching the mark of

around 3 million per quarter.

Analysis of originations along the various sources reveals the broad-based nature of

growth. Before we proceed, we would like to define the ways in which we classify the

various origination sources:

New to Credit (NTC): Consumers opening up a trade line and getting a bureau

record for the first time

Known to Bank (KTB): Consumers having a bureau record and a pre-existing

lending relationship with the bank and opening a trade line with the same bank

New to Bank (NTB): Consumers having a bureau record and opening a trade line

with the bank for the first time

Known to Product (KTP): Consumers opening a trade line for the product for the

second or more time

New to Product (NTP): Consumers opening a trade line for the product for the

first time

New to Product Excluding New to Credit (NTP ex NTC): Consumers opening a

trade line for the product for the first time and having a bureau record

All the sourcing categories exhibited a healthy growth with NTB and KTP origination

volumes increasing by a robust 31% over the corresponding quarter of the previous

year. The other categories increased in the range of 11-13% in Y-O-Y terms.

In terms of overall contribution to origination volumes, NTB sourcing provided close to

46% of all new cards issued with KTB providing 30% and NTC providing 24%. The

share of NTB sourcing has increased from 42% in Q1 2017 to 46% in Q1 2018.


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Multi-carding (issuance of cards to consumers having one or more cards) has become a

significant growth driver in the industry. This is amply clear from the fact that roughly

50% of originations were derived from this source in Q1 2018 – rapid acceleration from

the 45% number observed in Q1 2017.

The rapid acceleration in originations growth momentum has been fueled by the

increasing geographic diversification of the industry. The share of the Tier-1 cities in

aggregate origination volumes has declined from 60% in Q1 2016 to around 53% each

in Q1 2017 and Q1 2018. However, the industry continues to remain concentrated and

there is ample geographic whitespace for growth.

The significant rise in originations has been accompanied by robust balance expansion,

as annual bankcard balance growth accelerated from approximately 19% in the year

ended Q2 2016 to 30% in Q2 2017 and further to 42% in Q2 2018. Decomposition of

the overall balance sheet growth into value (per consumer balance) and volume

(number of consumers) components reveals the broad-based nature of this growth.

Volume and per consumer balances grew robustly by 24.8% and 13.8% respectively,

over the year ended Q2 2018.

Balance sheet growth over the year ended Q1 2018 was driven largely by robust

increases within the prime and near prime consumer risk tiers, and comparatively

quiescent growth of the prime plus and subprime segments. Similar trends were

observed for average consumer balances, where the highest growth rates occurred in

the prime and near prime segments.

The percentage of seriously delinquent (90-179 days past due) balances grew in Q-O-Q

and Y-O-Y terms by 3 bps and 22 bps respectively to reach the level of 1.7% in Q2

2018. Similarly, the percentage of seriously delinquent (90-179 days past due) accounts

grew in Q-O-Q and Y-O-Y terms by 1 bps and 17 bps respectively to reach the level of

0.9% in Q2 2018. Despite these recent increases, delinquency rates for cards remain at

relatively low and controlled levels.


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Unsecured Installment Loan Summary

Personal loan growth continued unabated as balance growth accelerated

throughout 2017 and 2018. Recent origination trends portend solid future growth.

The robust health of the market is indicated by the all-time high level of balances

and significantly low level of delinquencies. Growth is increasingly coming from

the existing consumer base with consumers showing a strong preference for

repeat purchase and loyalty. Clear size segmentation of the market for various

player segments like PSU, PVT and NBFCs is also continuing apace.

UNSECURED INSTALLMENT LOAN METRICS Q2 2018 Q-O-Q

Change Y-O-Y

Change


Outstanding Balance (INR Billions) 2,954 8.1% 43.1%


Average Balance per Account (INR '000) 208 0.7% 11.5%



Average New Account Balance (Q1 2018) (INR '000) 267 -4.8% -7.4%

Account-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) 1.00% -2 bps -22 bps

Balance-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) 0.56% 4 bps -13 bps

Personal loan is one of the fastest growing segments of the retail lending market. In

consonance with aggregate market trends, growth accelerated considerably in the later

part of 2017 with origination amount (new loan balances) Y-O-Y growth increasing at a

robust 44% and 65% in Q3 2017 and Q4 2017 respectively. The trend continued in the

first quarter of 2018 with growth moderating to still robust levels of 34% on account of

the high base in Q1 2017.

Growth has increasingly being driven by higher volumes of new loan accounts opened.

Account origination growth rates accelerated throughout the year, with year-over-year

growth rates increasing from 8% in Q1 2017 to 38% in Q3 2017 and accelerating further

to 45% in Q1 2018.


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The continued strength in volumes driven by the comparatively higher growth in smaller

loans has meant that the year-over-year growth in average ticket size of new loans has

slowed throughout the year, from 13.1% in Q1 2017 to 4.3% in Q3 2017 and a decline

of 7.4% in Q1 2018.

Personal loan (along with consumer durable loan) is a product which is characterized by

repeat purchase and high consumer loyalty. This is amply clear from the analysis of the

behavior of the various origination sources.

The share of KTB sourcing in aggregate disbursements increased from an already high

level of 61% in Q1 2016 to around 64% over the last five quarters ending Q1 2018. We

noticed a similar pattern in terms of volume contribution as well.

Concurrently, the share of KTP sourcing i.e. contribution by consumers going in for the

second or more trade has also increased to around 60% in amount terms and around

52% in volume terms in the past five quarters.

It is important to understand that the relative increase in share of KTB does not imply

that the other two sources of originations – NTC and NTB – are not growing. In fact,

disbursements through NTC and NTB origination sources grew year-over-year by 20%

and 42%, respectively, in Q1 2018.

The robust increase in the aggregate market has been accompanied by change in

market share of the various market players as well as emerging segmentation of the

market in terms ticket sizes. NBFCs have started focusing on the bottom end of the

ticket size spectrum especially loans below INR 200K. The NBFC segment has

managed to grow its volume share (share of loan originations) of the market for sub-

200K loans from 21% in Q1 2016 to 31% in Q1 2017 and further on to 62% in Q1 2018.

As a result, the NBFC segment average ticket size has consistently declined from INR

183K in Q1 2017 to INR 119K in Q1 2018.

In contrast, the banks (both PSU and PVT) have shifted their focus to the mid to the

large segments. The PVT Banks have been significantly active in the loans above INR

700K segment with a volume and value share of around 55-60% in the past few

quarters. The continued focus on the high end of the market has meant that their

average ticket size has consistently increased from INR 330K in Q1 2016 to INR 363K

in Q1 2017 and further on to INR 395K in Q1 2018.

The PSU segment has behaved in a similar manner with average ticket size

accelerating even faster from INR 231K in Q1 2016 to INR 277K in Q1 2017 and further

on to INR 343K in Q1 2018. The PSU segment is focused on loans between INR 200-


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700K and have a share in excess of 50% in both value and volume terms in that

segment.

As expected, the balance sheet has expanded in line with the trends observed with

respect to originations. Aggregate balance sheet has expanded by a CAGR of 34%

from around INR 1.2 trillion in June 2015 to INR 2.9 trillion in June 2018. Overall

balance sheet growth has been driven by broad-based increase in both the number of

consumers growth of 23% and per-consumer balance growth of 10%.

The 43% Y-O-Y growth in aggregate balances in Q2 2018 was driven by a 28%

increase in number of consumers as well as 14% in average consumer balances. The

fact that average consumer balances growth has accelerated from 7% in June 2017 to

13% in December 2017 and further on to 14% in June 2018 should be monitored

carefully as repeat purchase and customer loyalty dynamics have the potential to

substantially accelerate the leverage dynamics. The increase in average consumer

balances is partly being driven by the increase in the number of concurrent loans being

serviced by a consumer. Sustained increase in average consumer balances of this

magnitude over the next couple of years could be a harbinger of the over-heating of the

market.

The vigorous growth rate of aggregate balances has resulted in significant decline in the

delinquency rates for all industry participants expect the NBFC sector. The percentage

of seriously delinquent (90-179 days past due) accounts declined in Q-O-Q and Y-O-Y

terms by 2 bps and 22 bps respectively to reach the level of 1.0% in Q2 2018.

Concomitantly, the percentage of seriously delinquent (90-179 days past due) balances

declined in YOY terms by 13 bps to 0.56%.


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Auto Loan Summary

Auto loan originations have resumed growth after a brief hiatus in Q4 2016 and

Q1 2017, as underlying demand for autos has picked up due to improvements in

consumer demand and economic growth. Balance growth has been in line with

originations. Aggregate balance growth has been driven by a combination of

healthy increases in both accounts and average balances. The resumption of

growth has been accompanied by significant improvements in delinquency

metrics.

AUTO LOAN METRICS Q2 2018 Q-O-Q

Change Y-O-Y

Change




Average Balance per Account (INR '000) 368 1.4% 8.8%


Origination Volumes (Q1 2018) Millions 0.79 -7.6% 9.2%

Average New Account Balance (Q1 2018) (INR '000) 557 1.2% -0.1%

Account-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) 4.42% 7 bps -127 bps

Balance-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) 2.83% 5 bps -72 bps

For the purpose of analysis here, auto loans include both new car loans and used car

loans. Auto loan originations have picked up steam after a lull experienced in Q4 2016

and Q1 2017 as the strengthening of the economic recovery has translated into robust

demand for new cars. New car sales have bounced back strongly from a decline of

6.0% in Q4 2016 to a growth of 9.4% in Q4 2017. Growth has further accelerated to

13.9% in Q1 2018 and on to 24.3% in Q2 2018.

Concomitantly, year-over-year originations (new accounts opened) growth has

increased from 4.0% in Q4 2016, compared to the prior year quarter, to 13.9% in Q4

2017. Growth moderated from those levels to 9.2% in Q1 2018. In parallel, total new

auto loan disbursements Y-O-Y growth also moderated from 19.0% in Q4 2017 to 9.1%

in Q1 2018.


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Aggregate disbursement growth of 9.1% in Q1 2018 was powered by a healthy 9.2%

increase in account volumes and a measely decline of 0.1% in average ticket size.

Analysis of the origination from a sourcing perspective reveals broad stability. The share

of the new-to-credit (NTC) segment in the aggregate origination volumes has declined

modestly from 33.1% in Q1 2016 to 30.9% in Q1 2017 and further to 30.4% in Q1 2018.

The share of KTB in origination volumes has behaved in a similar manner with a decline

from 33.7% in Q1 2017 to 32.8% in Q1 2018.

In contrast, NTB sourcing has witnessed an increase in share from 35.4% to 36.8%. In

terms of customer familiarity with the product, the market is dominated by first time

borrowers, with a share of around two-thirds of total new account volumes. This ratio

has remained broadly stable over the past few years.

Industry growth in the past couple of years is being driven by the upper end of the ticket

size spectrum along with a steady increase in ticket size, due to ongoing customer

preference towards larger size sedans and SUVs. The share of loans with a ticket size

greater than INR 0.6 million has increased from 24.8% in Q1 2016 to 29.2% in Q1 2017

and further to 30.7% in Q1 2018. In the same vein, the share of these loans in the

aggregate industry disbursements has increased from 51.2% in Q1 2016 to 57.6% in

Q1 2017 and 59.9% in Q1 2018.

Like personal loans, this industry is also witnessing increasing segmentation on the

basis of ticket sizes. The PVT players have been the biggest beneficiary of the trend of

high growth of loans with ticket size greater than INR 0.6 million. Even though the share

of the PVT segment in origination volumes has declined by around 280 bps Y-O-Y to

33.1% in Q1 2018, their share of the aggregate disbursements have increased by 10

bps over the same time period to 40.6%.

The NBFC segment has managed to increase its overall share of disbursements from

29.4% in Q1 2017 to 32.5% in Q1 2018 by focusing largely on the auto loans having a

ticket size less than INR 0.3 million. Their share of this segment of the market in terms

of origination volumes has increased from 42.6% in Q1 2017 to 58.3% in Q1 2018. In

parallel, the share of disbursements has also increased from 42.9% in Q1 2017 to

57.6% in Q1 2018.

The PSU segment has increased its focus on serving the middle of the ticket size range

and tend to derive more than three-fourths of their business from loans with ticket size

between INR 0.3 – 1.0 million.


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From a geographic perspective, growth is increasingly being driven by geographic

expansion with the origination volumes share of the Tier-1 cities falling from 32.7% in

Q1 2016 to 31.9% in Q1 2017 and 30.5% in Q1 2018.

Balance sheet growth has accelerated rapidly from the start of 2017 onwards with Y-O-

Y balance growth increasing from 18.5% in Q2 2017 to 29.4% in Q2 2018. The

aggregate balance growth can be further decomposed into consumer growth of 18.8%

and average consumer balance growth of 7.8%. The fact that bulk of the growth comes

from a widening pool of consumers (as opposed to increasing balance per consumer)

augurs well for the future sustainability of the growth dynamics.

Robust total balance growth has been accompanied by stability in terms of share of the

various risk tiers. Prime plus and prime consumers account for around two-thirds of the

aggregate balances and their share has increased modestly in the past couple of years.

Simultaneously, the share of near prime and subprime balances has trended down.

Modest increase in the share of high score tiers along with resumption of growth has

translated into a significant decline in delinquency in both balance and account level

terms. The percentage of accounts seriously delinquent (90+ days past due) declined

significantly—127 bps—to 4.42% in Q2 2018. In parallel, the balance-level delinquency

(90+ DPD) declined by 72 bps on Y-o-Y basis to 2.83%.


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Mortgage Summary

The mortgage market continued to show decent performance in the face of

various structural issues plaguing the real estate industry. Originations bounced

back from the lows seen in Q4 2016 and accelerated throughout the year due to

resumption of genuine buyer demand, increased mortgage supply from the

lending industry and ongoing refinancing activity. In consonance, balance sheet

continued to expand. However, delinquencies edged up in both balance and

account terms.

MORTGAGE LOAN METRICS Q2 2018 Q-O-Q

Change Y-O-Y

Change



Average Balance per Consumer (INR '000) 1,694 1.0% 3.3%

Average Balance per Account (INR '000) 1,316 1.2% 0.0%



Average New Account Balance (Q1 2018) (INR '000) 2,232 2.3% 6.8%

Account-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) 2.94% 34 bps -3 bps


The mortgage market exhibited resilience in face of the various structural issues

plaguing the industry like the slowdown in house price inflation, continued high inventory

levels, enhanced regulation in the form of RERA, and continued deterioration of the

financial health of the real estate companies due to ongoing funding and liquidity issues.

In spite of these adverse industry developments, origination activity in both volume and

value terms started rebounding from Q2 2017 onwards. The Y-O-Y growth of origination

amount has increased significantly from 2.9% in Q1 2017 to 25.2% in Q1 2018. Early

indications point towards further acceleration in Q2 2018.

Aggregate new account disbursement Y-o-Y growth of 25.2% in Q1 2018 was

supported by an 17.2% increase in new account originations as well as a 6.8% increase

in per-account balance.


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In terms of origination sourcing, the new-to-bank (NTB) segment accounted for slightly

over a third of aggregate origination volumes and half of the sanctioned amount. The

significant and growing share of this origination source indicates the price sensitivity and

refinancing momentum in the market.

The fact that the NTC segment accounts for around 40% of origination volumes and

24% of sanctioned amount in Q1 2018 shows the significant average ticket size

differential between the various origination sources. As against a ticket size of INR 2.6

million and INR 2.4 million for NTB and KTB channels, NTC sourcing channel has a

ticket size of just INR 1.2 million only.

Similar trends are observed for first time mortgage borrowers as well. First time

mortgage customers have a volume share of 73% and amount share of 60% in Q1

2018. Thus, their average ticket size of INR 1.7 million is significantly less than the INR

2.9 million ticket size for KTP customers.

In terms of various institutional segments, growth is increasingly being driven by the

NBFCs especially the Housing Finance Companies (HFCs). The NBFC segment

(includes HFCs) has managed to increase its market share of the aggregate sanctioned

amount from 41.1% in Q1 2016 to 43.9% in Q1 2017 and further on to 48.1% in Q1

2018. Bulk of the growth of this segment can be attributed to the loss of market share

suffered by the PSU segment.

In contrast to personal loans and auto loans, growth for the NBFC segment has been

much broad-based in terms of ticket size. In fact, growth is increasingly being driven by

larger ticket sizes and the average ticket size of the NBFC segment has increased from

INR 2.1 million in Q1 2017 to INR 2.3 million in Q1 2018.

The PSU segment is the biggest player in the sub INR 2.0 million ticket size segment

and they derive close to 70% of all their origination volumes through these loans. The

average ticket size for the PSU, NBFC and the PVT segments in Q1 2018 came in at

INR 1.8 million, INR 2.3 million and INR 3.4 million respectively.

The difference in the average ticket size is a clear reflection of the market focus with the

PVT players focusing on the top end and the PSU at the low end of the ticket spectrum.

The NBFCs (including the HFCs) tend to have a share in excess of 50% for all loans

except loans with a ticket size below INR 1 million.

In terms of geographical expansion, the market continues to be moderately diversified

with the Tier-1 cities having a share of 36.6% in origination volumes and 52.6% in

origination amount in Q1 2018. Geographical expansion has increased as the share of


18


Tier-1 cities in both volume and value terms has declined by around 100 bps over the

past one year ending Q1 2018.

The ongoing moderation in house prices has meant that the aggregate balance sheet

expansion has been led increasingly by growth in the number of consumers. Balance

sheet growth of 25.5% in Q2 2018 was driven by a 27.1% increase in consumers and

3.3% increase in average consumer balance.

From a risk perspective, the market remains overwhelmingly dominated by consumers

in the prime plus and prime risk tier segments, with a 58% and 21% share of aggregate

balances, respectively. Over the past several quarters, there has been a marginal shift

in the share of balances held by consumers in prime plus category with the share

declining by around 280 bps from Q2 2017 to Q2 2018.

This trend towards lower risk borrowers has had some impact on delinquency rates.

Account-level delinquency rates (90+ DPD) increased by 34 bps in Y-O-Y terms, to

2.94%, in Q2 2018, while balance-level delinquencies increased by 24 bps to 1.82%.


19


Loans Against Property Summary

The mortgage sector exhibited resilience in face of the various structural issues

plaguing the real estate industry. Originations bounced back from the lows seen

in Q4 2016 and accelerated throughout the year due to resumption of genuine

buyer demand, increased supply from the industry and ongoing refinancing

activity. In consonance, balance sheet continued to expand and delinquencies

remained stable at low levels.

LOANS AGAINST PROPERTY METRICS Q2 2018 Q-O-Q

Change Y-O-Y

Change



Average Balance per Consumer (INR '000) 3,637 0.5% -0.4%

Average Balance per Account (INR '000) 2,146 1.5% 2.2%



Average New Account Balance (Q1 2018) (INR '000) 2,633 3.8% -11.1%

Account-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) 3.48% 71 bps 58 bps


The Loans Against Property (LAP) market continued to grow at a robust pace as

origination amount (new account balances) YOY increased from 7.8% in Q1 2017 to

18.8% in Q1 2018. The continued growth in the LAP market has been underpinned by

the broadening of the ticket size ranges and the consequent increase in addressable

consumers.

This is amply clear from the fact that volume growth i.e. CAGR of number of accounts

over the past couple of years ending Q1 2018 of 20.6% has been significantly higher

than the origination amount growth of 13.1% in the same time period. Consequently,

average ticket sizes have compressed at a CAGR of 6.2% from INR 3.0 million in Q1

2016 to INR 2.6 million in Q1 2018.

Origination growth in Q1 2018 was underpinned by broad-based growth across the

various origination sources with KTB, NTB and NTC account volumes growing by an


20


impressive 23%, 38%, and 49% respectively. It is noteworthy that the growth in

origination volumes is accompanied by an increase in the share of the NTC account

volumes from 21% in Q1 2017 to 24% in Q1 2018.

Market growth has also been sustained by continued growth in refinancing volumes.

The importance of this source of growth can be inferred by looking at the share of KTP

volumes across the accounts and amount dimensions. KTP sourcing had a share of

52% in the aggregate amount origination in Q1 2018 – significantly higher than the 23%

share of the same in the overall account volumes. The average ticket size of this

segment at INR 8.3 million is higher than the average ticket size of other channels by a

factor of two to three times. Thus, repeat purchase and refinancing is a key factor

driving the growth of the market.

The market continues to be heavily focused on the Tier-1 cities with slightly over half of

the disbursements coming in these cities along with an account share of slightly over a

third of the market in Q1 2018. The average ticket size in the Tier-1 cities is 1.5 times

the average ticket size operating in the segment.

NBFCs (including HFCs) have continued to gain market share at the expense of the

PVT and the PSU players. The NBFC market share in origination amount terms

increased from 52% in Q1 2017 to 56% in Q1 2018. The increase in the share in

volume terms was even more impressive as it increased from 67% in Q1 2017 to 73%

in Q1 2018.

Robust growth in originations was accompanied by similar trends on the balance sheet

as overall balance sheet expanded by 23% in Q2 2018 to reach the level of INR 3.2

trillion. The balance sheet growth was driven by a 29% increase in number of

consumers and 0.4% decline in average consumer balances.

In terms of risk tier distribution, the market continues to be dominated by the prime and

prime plus risk tiers having a share of slightly over 70%. However, there has been an

increase in the share of the near prime and the subprime risk tiers from 26% in Q2 2017

to 27% in Q2 2018.

In parallel, there has been an increase in delinquency from both amount and account

perspective. Account-level delinquency rates (90+ DPD) increased by 71 bps in Y-O-Y

terms, to 3.48%, in Q2 2018, while balance-level delinquencies increased by 42 bps to

3.04%.


21


Report Overview and Definitions

The TransUnion CIBIL Industry Insights Report is a quarterly overview summarizing

data and trends and providing insights on the Indian consumer lending industry.

All trends originate from TransUnion CIBIL’s consumer credit database of more than 600 million files, which profiles nearly every credit-active consumer in India. The report analyzes all accounts reported to TransUnion CIBIL that have been verified in the past 10 years.

The report provides a full view of all data records (not a sample) over the nine most recent quarters.

Both account-level and consumer-level views of key metrics and trends are included in the report.

The report covers data and trends for the national population overall, as well as breakdowns within consumer credit-score risk tiers.

The report analyzes individual consumer loan product types—credit card i.e. bankcard, auto, mortgage, loans against property and personal loans i.e. unsecured personal installment loans—while looking at aggregate views of all important retail lending products.


22


Risk Tier Definitions

RISK TIER BORROWER TRANSUNIION CIBIL V1 SCORE RANGE

Prime plus 801–900

Prime 751-800

Near prime 651–750

Subprime 300–650

Note: Non-prime refers to the 300 to 750 range, the union of near prime and subprime.

Product Definitions

PRODUCT CATEGORY

DEFINITION

Bankcard Revolving account, open account or line of credit reported by a bank; loan types include credit card, business credit card, secured credit card and cards with no preset spending limit (flexible spending)

Auto Loans reported as an auto loan or auto lease. Includes auto loans provided for financing of pre-owned cars

Mortgage Mortgage loans and installment (non-revolving) loans with a loan type including home equity, home improvement, real estate junior lien or second mortgage

Unsecured installment loans

Installment (non-revolving) loans with a loan type including unsecured, note loan and consolidation

Loans Against Property

Installment (non-revolving) loans with a loan type including loans against property


23


Data Definitions

DATA CATEGORY DEFINITION

Total account volumes Total number of accounts that are open and have a reporting with the bureau in the last six months, at quarter end

Total account balances Total Rupee amount of accounts that are open and have a reporting with the bureau in the last six months, at quarter end

Average account balance

Total account balances, divided by the total account volumes, at quarter end

Unit delinquency rates Total number of delinquent open accounts at quarter end, divided by the total account volumes

Rupee delinquency rates

Total Rupee amount of delinquent open accounts at quarter end, divided by total account balances

Total new account volumes

Total number of new accounts reported opened during the calendar quarter

Total new account balances

Sanctioned Rupee amount of new accounts reported opened during the calendar quarter

Average new account balance

Total new account balances, divided by the number of new accounts reported opened during the calendar quarter

Number of consumers with access to an active trade

Total number of consumers with access to at least one open revolving-type account, including authorized account users, at quarter end

Number of consumers with a balance present

Total number of consumers with at least one open or closed account with a balance greater than zero, not including authorized users, at quarter end

Percentage of borrowers with a delinquent balance

Total number of consumers with at least one open account with a past-due balance greater than zero (90+ days past due), divided by the number of consumers with at least one open account, at quarter end

Average number of accounts per consumer

Total number of open accounts, divided by the total number of consumers with at least one open account, at quarter end


24


DATA CATEGORY DEFINITION

Average total balance per consumer, of consumers with a balance

Total rupee balances of all open accounts, divided by the number of consumers with at least one open account with a balance, at quarter end

Report Generation Timing

Each quarter’s data and calculations are generated from the data available on the last

day of the quarter. There is typically a time lag between the date when a new account is

opened and when lenders report new accounts to credit reporting companies. As a

result of this time lag, a significant number of new accounts opened during a quarter

may not yet be reported as of the quarter end date. To enable more accurate and

complete reporting of new accounts, we measure all new account counts and balances

in this report one quarter in arrears. With this approach, the quarter prior to the current

report date reflects the most recent data.

25


ACCOUNT-LEVEL INSIGHTS

Bankcard

Bankcard .............................................................. 25 Total Account Volumes ............................................ 26 Total Account Balances ........................................... 27 Average Account Balance ........................................ 28 Distribution of Unit Delinquency Rates ..................... 29 Distribution of Rupee Delinquency Rates ................. 30 Total Reported New Account Originations ............... 31

For a complete description of product definitions, data category definitions and calculations, risk tier definitions and

the timing of report generation, please refer to the Report Overview and Definitions section.

ACCOUNT-LEVEL INSIGHTS–BANKCARD

26


Total Account Volumes

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

QUARTER

Total Volume of All Active Bankcards

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Subprime Near prime Prime Prime plus

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

BORROWER TU-CIBIL V1 TIER

Active Bankcards, by Risk TierQ2-2017 Q2-2018


27


Total Account Balances

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S

QUARTER

Total Balances of All Active Bankcards

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S


Active Bankcard Balances, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


28


Average Account Balance

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R '000

QUARTER

Average Balance of All Active Bankcards

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

E I

N IN

R '000


Average Balance of all Active Bankcards, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


29


Distribution of Unit Delinquency Rates

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F A

CC

OU

NT

S P

AS

T D

UE

QUARTER

Unit Delinquency Rates on All Bankcards

30+ DPD 90+ DPD


30


Distribution of Rupee Delinquency Rates

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F R

UP

EE

S P

AS

T D

UE

QUARTER

Rupee Delinquency Rates on All Bankcards

30+ DPD 90+ DPD

31


Total Reported New Account Originations

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

QUARTER

Total Number of New Bankcards

32



Unsecured Installment Loans

Unsecured Installment Loans ............................... 32

Total Account Volumes ............................................ 33 Total Account Balances ........................................... 34 Average Account Balance ........................................ 35 Distribution of Unit Delinquency Rates ..................... 36 Distribution of Rupee Delinquency Rates ................. 37 Total Reported New Account Originations ............... 38 Total Reported New Account Balances .................... 39 Average Reported New Account Balance ................ 40



ACCOUNT-LEVEL INSIGHTS–UNSECURED INSTALLMENT LOAN

33



9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

QUARTER

Total Volume of All Active Unsecured Installment Loans

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)


Active Unsecured Installment Loans, by Risk TierQ2-2017 Q2-2018


34



1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S

QUARTER

Total Balances of All Active Unsecured Installment Loans

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600


BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S


Active Unsecured Installment Loan Balances, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


35



170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R '000

QUARTER

Average Balance of All Active Unsecured Installment Loans

0

50

100

150

200

250


AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

E I

N IN

R '000


Average Balance of all Active Unscured Installment Loans, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


36



0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F A

CC

OU

NT

S P

AS

T D

UE

QUARTER

Unit Delinquency Rates on All Unscured Installment Loan Accounts

30+ DPD 90+ DPD


37



0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F R

UP

EE

S P

AS

T D

UE

QUARTER

Rupee Delinquency Rates on All Unsecured Installment Loan Accounts

30+ DPD 90+ DPD


38



1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

QUARTER

Total Number of New Unsecured Installment Loans

ACCOUNT-LEVEL INSIGHTS–AUTO LOAN

39


Total Reported New Account Balances

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S

QUARTER

Total Balances of All New Unsecured Installment Loans


40


Average Reported New Account Balance

250

255

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R '000

QUARTER

Average Balance of All New Unsecured Installment Loans


41



Auto Loan

Auto Loan ............................................................. 41





42



7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

QUARTER

Total Volume of All Active Auto Loans

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)


Active Auto Loans, by Risk TierQ2-2017 Q2-2018


43



2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S

QUARTER

Total Balances of All Active Auto Loans

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400


BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S


Active Auto Loan Balances, by Risk TierQ2-2017 Q2-2018


44



280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R '000

QUARTER

Average Balance of All Active Auto Loans

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450


AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

E I

N IN

R '000


Average Balance of All Active Auto Loan Balances, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


45



0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F A

CC

OU

NT

S P

AS

T D

UE

QUARTER

Unit Delinquency Rates on All Auto Loan Accounts

30+ DPD 90+ DPD


46



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F R

UP

EE

S P

AS

T D

UE

QUARTER

Rupee Delinquency Rates on All Auto Loan Accounts

30+ DPD 90+ DPD


47



0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

QUARTER

Total Number of New Auto Loans


48



300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S

QUARTER

Total Balances of New Auto Loans


49



500

510

520

530

540

550

560

570

580

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R '000

QUARTER

Average Balance of New Auto Loan Consumers

50



Mortgage

Mortgage .............................................................. 50




ACCOUNT-LEVEL INSIGHTS–MORTGAGE

51



9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

QUARTER

Total Volume of All Active Mortgages

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)


Active Mortgages, by Risk TierQ2-2017 Q2-2018


52



11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S

QUARTER

Total Balances of All Active Mortgages

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000


BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S


Active Mortgage Balances, by Risk TierQ2-2017 Q2-2018


53



1,200

1,220

1,240

1,260

1,280

1,300

1,320

1,340

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R '000

QUARTER

Average Balance of All Active Mortgages

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600


AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

E I

N IN

R '0

00


Average Balance of All Active Mortgages, by Risk TierQ2-2017 Q2-2018


54



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F A

CC

OU

NT

S P

AS

T D

UE

QUARTER

Unit Delinquency Rates on All Mortgage Accounts

30+ DPD 90+ DPD


55



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F R

UP

EE

S P

AS

T D

UE

QUARTER

Rupee Delinquency Rates on All Mortgage Accounts30+ DPD 90+ DPD


56



0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

QUARTER

Total Number of New Mortgages


57



800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S

QUARTER

Total Balances of New Mortgages


58



1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R '000

QUARTER

Average Balance of New Mortgages

59








60



0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

QUARTER

Total Volume of All Active Loans Against Property

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7


NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)


Active Loans Against Property, by Risk TierQ2-2017 Q2-2018


61



2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S

QUARTER

Total Balances of All Active Loans Against Property

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400


BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S


Active Loans Against Property Balances, by Risk TierQ2-2017 Q2-2018


62



1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

2,350

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R '000

QUARTER

Average Balance of All Active Loans Against Property

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500


AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

E I

N IN

R '000


Active Loans Against Property Balances, by Risk TierQ2-2017 Q2-2018


63



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F A

CC

OU

NT

S P

AS

T D

UE

QUARTER

Unit Delinquency Rates on All Loans Against Property Accounts

30+ DPD 90+ DPD


64



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F R

UP

EE

S P

AS

T D

UE

QUARTER

Rupee Delinquency Rates on All Loans Against Property Accounts

30+ DPD 90+ DPD


65



0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

0.11

0.12

0.13

0.14

0.15

0.16

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

QUARTER

Total Number of New Loans Against Property

66



200

250

300

350

400

450

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R B

ILL

ION

S

QUARTER

Total Balances of All New Loans Against Property

67



2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018

AV

G.

BA

LA

NC

ES

IN

IN

R '000

QUARTER

Average Balance of New Loans Against Property

68


CONSUMER-LEVEL INSIGHTS

Bankcard

Total Number of Consumers with Access to an Active Trade 69 Total Number of Consumers with a Balance ................ 70 Percentage of Borrowers with a Delinquent Balance .... 71 Average Number of Accounts Per Consumer ............... 72 Average Total Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance 73



CONSUMER-LEVEL INSIGHTS–BANKCARD

69


Total Number of Consumers with Access to an Active Trade

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

QUARTER

Total Number of Consumers With an Active Bankcard

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)


Total Number of Consumers with an active Bankcard, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


70


Total Number of Consumers with a Balance

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

QUARTER

Total Number of Consumers With a Bankcard Balance

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)


Total Number of Consumers with a Bankcard Balance, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


71


Percentage of Borrowers with a Delinquent Balance

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F B

OR

RO

WE

RS

PA

ST

DU

E

QUARTER

Consumer Delinquency Rates on Bankcards

90+ DPD


72


Average Number of Accounts Per Consumer

1.47

1.48

1.49

1.50

1.51

1.52

1.53

1.54

1.55

1.56

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

QUARTER

Average Number of Bankcards Per Consumer

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00


AV

G.

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS


Average Number of Bankcards per Consumer, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


73


Average Total Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

CO

NS

UM

ER

BA

LA

NC

E (

INR

'000

)

QUARTER

Average Total Bankcard Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


AV

G.

CO

NS

UM

ER

BA

LA

NC

E (

INR

'00

0)


Average Total Bankcard Loan Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018

74



Unsecured Installment Loan

Total Number of Consumers with a Balance ................ 75 Percentage of Borrowers with a Delinquent Balance .... 76 Average Number of Accounts Per Consumer ............... 77 Average Total Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance 78



CONSUMER-LEVEL INSIGHTS–AUTO LOAN

75



9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

QUARTER

Total Number of Consumers With an Unsecured Installment Loan Balance

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)


Total Number of Consumers with an Unsecured Installment Loan Balance, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


76



0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F B

OR

RO

WE

RS

PA

ST

DU

E

QUARTER

Consumer Delinquency Rates on Unsecured Installment Loan Accounts

90+ DPD


77



1.11

1.12

1.13

1.14

1.15

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.19

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

QUARTER

Average Number of Unsecured Installment Loan Accounts Per Consumer

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30


AV

G.

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS


Average Number of Unsecured Installment Loan Accounts per Consumer, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018

78



200

210

220

230

240

250

260

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

CO

NS

UM

ER

BA

LA

NC

E (

INR

'000)

QUARTER

Average Total Unsecured Installment Loan Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance

0

50

100

150

200

250

300


AV

G.

CO

NS

UM

ER

BA

LA

NC

E (

INR

'000)


Average Total Unsecured Installment Loan Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018

79



Auto Loan





80



9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

QUARTER

Total Number of Consumers With an Auto Loan Balance

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)


Total Number of Consumers with an Auto Loan Balance, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


81



0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F B

OR

RO

WE

RS

PA

ST

DU

E

QUARTER

Consumer Delinquency Rates on Auto Loan Accounts90+ DPD


82



1.07

1.08

1.09

1.10

1.11

1.12

1.13

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

QUARTER

Average Number of Auto Loan Accounts Per Consumer

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25


AV

G.

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS


Average Number of Auto Loan Accounts per Consumer, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018

83



330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

CO

NS

UM

ER

BA

LA

NC

E (

INR

'0

00)

QUARTER

Average Total Auto Loan Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450


AV

G.

CO

NS

UM

ER

BA

LA

NC

E (

INR

'000)


Average Total Auto Loan Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018

84



Mortgages





85



11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

QUARTER

Total Number of Consumers With a Mortgage Balance

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)


Total Number of Consumers with a Mortgage Balance, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


86



0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F B

OR

RO

WE

RS

PA

ST

DU

E

QUARTER

Consumer Delinquency Rates on Mortgage Accounts90+ DPD


87



1.14

1.15

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.19

1.20

1.21

1.22

1.23

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

QUARTER

Average Number of Mortgage Accounts Per Consumer

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30


AV

G.

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS


Average Number of Mortgage Accounts per Consumer, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018

88



1,600

1,610

1,620

1,630

1,640

1,650

1,660

1,670

1,680

1,690

1,700

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

CO

NS

UM

ER

BA

LA

NC

E (

INR

'000)

QUARTER

Average Total Mortgage Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000


AV

G.

CO

NS

UM

ER

BA

LA

NC

E (

INR

'000)


Average Total Mortgage Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018

89








90



1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

QUARTER

Total Number of Consumers With a Loan Against Property Balance

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2


NU

MB

ER

OF

CO

NS

UM

ER

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)


Total Number of Consumers with a Loan Against Property Balance, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


91



2.0%

2.2%

2.4%

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

% O

F B

OR

RO

WE

RS

PA

ST

DU

E

QUARTER

Consumer Delinquency Rates on Loan Against Property Accounts

90+ DPD


92



1.14

1.15

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.19

1.20

1.21

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS

QUARTER

Average Number of Loan Against Property Accounts Per Consumer

1.10

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.20

1.22

1.24


AV

G.

NU

MB

ER

OF

AC

CO

UN

TS


Average Number of Loan Against Property Accounts per Consumer, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018


93



3,300

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

4,100

4,200

Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018

AV

G.

CO

NS

UM

ER

BA

LA

NC

E (

INR

'00

0)

QUARTER

Average Total Loan Against Property Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400


AV

G.

CO

NS

UM

ER

BA

LA

NC

E (

INR

'000)


Average Total Loan Against Property Balance Per Consumer, of Consumers Carrying a Balance, by Risk Tier

Q2-2017 Q2-2018

Disclaimer The TransUnion CIBIL Industry Insights Report is prepared by TransUnion CIBIL Limited (TU CIBIL). By accessing and using the Report the user acknowledges and accepts such use is subject to this disclaimer. This Presentation is based on collation of information, substantially, provided by credit institutions who are members with TU CIBIL. While TU CIBIL takes reasonable care in preparing the Presentation , TU CIBIL shall not be responsible for errors and/or omissions caused by inaccurate or inadequate information submitted to it by credit institutions. Further, TU CIBIL does not guarantee the adequacy or completeness of the information in the Presentation and/or its suitability for any specific purpose nor is TU CIBIL responsible for any access or reliance on the Presentation and that TU CIBIL expressly disclaims all such liability. This Presentation is not a recommendation for rejection / denial or acceptance of any application nor any recommendation by TU CIBIL to (i) lend or not to lend; (ii) enter into or not to enter into any financial transaction with the concerned individual/entity. The Information contained in the Presentation does not constitute advice and the user should carry out all the necessary analysis that is prudent in its opinion before making any decisions based on the Information contained in this Presentation. The use of the Presentation is governed by the provisions of the Credit Information Companies (Regulation) Act, 2005, the Credit Information Companies Regulations, 2006, Credit Information Companies Rules, 2006. No part of the report should be copied, circulated, published without prior approvals.

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All Rights Reserved

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TransUnion CIBIL Industry Insights Report · Customers aged between 20-49 form the bulk of the market in terms of volumes as well as value and are likely to be the biggest growth