Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Long Range Planning: OTP Use of Statewide Integrated Model Becky Knudson

Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division

Long Range Planning: OTP Use Long Range Planning: OTP Use of Statewide Integrated Modelof Statewide Integrated Model

Becky Knudson


Integrated Integrated AnalysisAnalysis

Integrated analysis blends the features of land use, transportation and economic activity together to represent the interactions and reveal net effects of change

POLICY


Value of Integrated AnalysisValue of Integrated Analysis

• Helps identify factors relevant to policy issues

• Allows prospective policies to be tested

• Reveals policy trade-offs• Reveals synergies gained by

grouping policies


OTP Policy Analysis ProcessOTP Policy Analysis Process

Vision and Goals

Policies

Issues to be Addressed

Evaluation Framework(Performance Indicators)

Formulate ApproachAnalytical Tools • OR Statewide Model • OR Urban Models• Highway Economic

Requirements Systems

• MPO Data• Post Processing

Analysis

Questions to be Analyzed

OTP PoliciesInvestment Strategy

Final OTP

Steering Committee

Reviews Results


Basic Evaluation ApproachBasic Evaluation Approach

• Identify performance criteria• Identify alternatives• Analyze how well each alternative

satisfies performance criteria• Judge the total effectiveness of

each alternative in meeting each performance criterion


Example: Buying a Car Analyst Style

Performance Criteria

Model A Model B Model C

Price ++ +++ +MPG ++ +++ ++Reliability + - +++Comfort +++ ++ +Safety ++ + ++


New Car Evaluation Matrix




10 8 9


New Car Evaluation Matrix




11 7 12


Evaluation Matrix for OTP Alternative Scenarios

Alternative Scenarios

Performance Criteria Alt. 1 Alt. 2 Alt. 3

Accessibility/ Mobility

Economic Vitality

Efficiency & Cost Effectiveness

Equity

Reliability/ Responsiveness

Safety

Sustainability

Public Support/Financial Feasibility


OTP ScenariosOTP ScenariosReference Scenario

Sensitivity Scenario 1 High Fuel Prices

Sensitivity Scenario 2 Relaxed Land Use Controls

Alternate Scenario 1 Flat Revenue

Alternate Scenario 2 Max Operations & Maintenance

without Pricing

Alternate Scenario 3 Major Improvements

Alternate Scenario 4 Pricing


OTP Policy Analysis ProcessOTP Policy Analysis Process

Vision and Goals

Policies

Issues to be Addressed

Evaluation Framework(Performance Indicators)

Formulate ApproachAnalytical Tools • OR Statewide Model • OR Urban Models• Highway Economic

Requirements Systems

• MPO Data• Post Processing

Analysis

Questions to be Analyzed

OTP PoliciesInvestment Strategy

Final OTP

Steering Committee

Reviews Results


OTP Performance MeasuresProduced via R-code from model output? (red = to-be-done)

A. Accessibility/Mobility

1 Average annual recurring and non-recurring delay per capita (by region). avg delay Hh region, avg delay vehicle region

2 Average travel time per trip (peak, off-peak, by purpose, region, income class). avg ttime, avg distance

3

Number of jobs within 30 minutes of the average resident (by region, income class).

change in employment by industry by region w/in 30 min travel time

4

Variable passenger transportation user cost as percent of income (by region, income class).

passenger costs as percent of income by income and region

5 Percent of trips with viable transit, bicycle and walk options (by MPO region). F1

6 Average travel time to nearest major freight facility. The Travel Time to Freight Facilities for each region of origin(1 file per freight location)

B. Economic Vitality

1 Change in economic output between alternatives (by region, sector). gross state product

2 Change in employment between alternatives (by region, sector). emp by industry for state

3

Variable passenger transportation user cost as percent of income (by region, income class). A4

4

Variable freight transportation user cost as percent of economic output (by region, sector). C5

5 Number of workers within 30 minutes of the average job (by region). The change in house holds (workers) within 30 min for each region



R1

Scenarios

% D

iff fr

om B

ase

Yea

r (0

5')

a b c d

100

120

140

160

R2

Scenarios

% D

iff fr

om B

ase

Yea

r (0

5')

a b c d

100

120

140

160

R3

Scenarios

% D

iff fr

om B

ase

Yea

r (0

5')

a b c d

100

120

140

160

R4 & R5

Scenarios

% D

iff fr

om B

ase

Yea

r (0

5')

a b c d

100

120

140

160

State

Scenarios

% D

iff fr

om B

ase

Yea

r (0

5')

a b c d

100

120

140

160

Key

a = Reference Case

b = Flat Case

c = Operations Case

d = Major Improvments 1

Vechile Miles Traveled by Region of Origin for: Freight








Documents

Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division Long Range Planning: OTP Use of Statewide Integrated Model Becky Knudson