Transportation leadership you can trust.

presented to

presented by

California Statewide Travel Demand Model

California State Transportation PlanPolicy Advisory Committee

October 15, 2013

Doug MacIvor

Ronald West

2

CSTDM Key Objectives

CTP 2040/

Interregional Travel/

Rural Analysis Needs/

Freight Mobility Plan/

Interregional Transportation Strategic Plan

3

SB 391 and SB 375

SB 391: Require the CTP to identify the statewide integrated multimodal transportation system needed to achieve a statewide reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80-percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

SB 375: Interregional Forecasts

SB 375: SCSs from MPOs

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How Can Modeling Help Evaluate Strategies?

Transport. Levels of Service

Mode ChoiceTrip

AssignmentGenerate Daily

Activities

Where are you going to

go?

What are your options

on how to get there?

How did you decide to get there?

How do things look when you

add up everyone’s

trips?

Population

Employment

Calibrated Models

Based on Survey Data

Highway Network

Transit Service

Travel Times

5

What is the CSTDM?

Multimodal model of weekday California resident travel, including trucks

Base Year 2010

Multiple Horizon Years

Comprised of five components

• Personal Travel Models• Short Distance• Long Distance

• Truck Model • Short Distance• Long Distance

• External Travel Model

• Auto• Drive

Alone• Car Pools

• Transit• Bus• Urban Rail

• Non-Motorized• Walk• Bicycle

• Other• Air • Rail

• Trucks• 2015• 2020• 2035• 2040• 2050

6

CSTDM System Outputs

• Trip lists• Trip tables• Loaded

network• Travel times

and costs• Summary

travel statistics

• Maps• Graphs

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CSTDM Zones and Network

93,000 nodes

253,000 links

Multi-modal

5454 internal zones (TAZ)

51 external zones

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CSTDM Network Coverage Area - Berkeley

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Transit Travel Times

To San Francisco International Airport

To Los Angeles International Airport

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Development of Year 2010 Population Database

TAZs•Aggregate Census Block Data•Census Population and Household Totals

•Added More Data on Group Quarters

Census Zones•Aggregate Census Tracts•ACS Household Characteristics

Run Populati

on Synthesi

zer

Contains Information on Every Synthetic

Household in California, including:

•Household Size•Persons by Age•Employment•Income•Housing Type

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Development of Year 2010 Employment Data

IndustryAgriculture/MiningConstructionManufacturingWholesaleTransportation/UtilitiesRetailInformationFinance/Insurance/Real Estate

Professional/Management/AdministrationEducation/HealthArts/Entertainment/Recreation/

Accommodation/Food ServiceOther ServiceGovernment

OccupationManagement/BusinessProfessional/TechnicalEducationHealthServiceSales, Food, and Entertainment

ClericalBlue Collar

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Future Year Forecasts

Socio-Economic Forecasts

» MPO data used directly

» RTPAs – Combination of:

• UC Davis forecasts

• Dept of Finance

• Moody’s (Employment)

Future transportation improvement and service assumptions from SCSs and RTPs throughout the state, and from Caltrans modal plans.

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Changes in Population and Employment

2000 2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

Total Population

2000 2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Total Employment

2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%

Average Annual % Change

Population

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CHTS Data – Sampling Rates

County Households

Weekday FullPercent Weekda

ySample

s Rate Samples Rate

Alpine 497 9 1 in 55 21 1 in 24 43%

Del Norte 9,907 90 1 in 110 187 1 in 53 48%

Monterey 125,946 318 1 in 396 1,012 1 in 124 31%

Tulare 130,352 281 1 in 464 793 1 in 164 35%

San Mateo 257,837 581 1 in 444 1,129 1 in 228 51%

Stanislaus 165,180 192 1 in 860 541 1 in 305 35%

Los Angeles

3,239,571 3,301 1 in 981 8,102 1 in 400 41%

Sacramento

513,945 350 1 in 1,468

818 1 in 628 43%

San Diego 1,086,865 698 1 in 1,557

1,668 1 in 652 42%

Statewide 12,575,860 17,445 1 in 721 41,958 1 in 300 42%

California State Freight Forecasting Model

Under development by UC Irvine

Commodity-based model

» Converted to long distance truck trips for CSTDM

Primary Modules Mode Vehicle Class

• Commodity Module : Predicts commodity flows

• Transshipment Module : Assigns commodities to specific modes

• Network Module : Assigns truck/rail modes to routes

• Truck • Rail• Water• Air (+Truck-Air)• Multiple Modes

• FHWA Class : Class 5 to 13

Source: UC Irvine

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2015/2040 Sensitivity Test: Increase Auto Operating Costs

Shift in trips to transit and non-motorized modes (SDPTM)

Decrease in total daily VMT

SOV HOV 2+

HOV 3+

Transit Bike Walk Total Trips

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

Change in Trips by Mode

Alameda County Los Angeles County

San Joaquin Valley Statewide

SOV HOV2 HOV3+ Total0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

800,000,000 -12.00%

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

-11.40% -11.40%

-9.80% -11.30%

Change in VMT

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2015/2040 Sensitivity Test: Increase Auto Operating Cost

Volume decrease on roadways across the state

Green = Decreased roadways volumesRed = Increased roadway volumes

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CSTDM Future Forecasts for CTP 2040

Analyze several scenarios to obtain maximum feasible greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. A scenario will be defined as multiple surface transportation GHG reduction strategies. “

An example of a scenario would include a strategy or multiple strategies (e.g. VMT tax – the base (existing condition) would be no tax, moderately aggressive would be $.10 per mile and aggressive would be $.25 per mile). The CSTDM is currently being updated and is anticipated to be available Winter 2013/14.

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Strategies Handled Using CSTDM

Pricing VMT FeeRegional gas tax/national tax assumption

Transportation AlternativesCarpoolPark and ride lots

Mode ShiftExpand transitExpand passenger rail

Operational Efficiency HOV/HOT lanesBottleneck relief

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Strategies Handled Outside of CSTDM

Pricing Congestion pricing

Regional development impact fee

Transportation AlternativesCarpoolCarsharing

Mode ShiftSafe Routes to SchoolExpand bikeExpand pedestrian

Operational Efficiency

Intelligent Transportation System and advance vehicle and roadside communicationIncident and emergency management

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CTP 2040 Alternatives

ScenariosStatewide Strategy Packages

Alt 1Planned

Alt 2Planned +

Future Strategies

Alt 3Meeting

the Goals

RTP/SCS, Modal Plans and cleaner

car/truck standards

MODERATE Vehicle Fleet + Strategies such

as pricing, mode shift, operational efficiencies,

etc. + Alt1

=

=AGGRESSIVE Vehicle

Fleet + Strategies such as pricing, mode shift,

operational efficiencies, etc. + Alt1

=

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CSTDM Update Objectives

Key ObjectivesCTP 2040/

Interregional Travel/ Rural Analysis Needs

Build on/improve the initial CSTDM

Improve model inputs (networks,

network processing, zones)

Enhance model credibility, access &

usefulness

Leverage CHTS with new data – Census, NHTS, long-distance

surveys

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CSTDM Update + 2040 CTP Forecasts Milestones

(March 2013)

(October 2013)

(December 2014)

(February 2014)

CHTS

Draft 2010, 2020, 2040 Model

Draft 2015, 2030, 2050 Model

Final Version of Model for all Years

Final CTP Forecasts (~January 2015)

Q & A

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Statewide Modeling History

2004 1st

Statewide Model

2007 HSR

Model v 1.0

2010 CSTDM v1.0 (Base Year)

2012 CSTDM v 1.0 (2015/2040)

2014 CSTDM v 2.0(Base + Future

No-Build)

Early 2015 (CTP

Forecasts)

Continued HSR Model

Improvements