Transportation leadership you can trust.

presented to

Healthy Regions, Healthy People

Policy and Research Symposium Series

presented by

Susan B Herbel, Ph.D.Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

October 16, 2005

Risky BusinessUnderstanding Relative Risks and Safety Trends in Travel and Transportation

2

Understanding the Problem

3

A Progress Report

Projected at 1966 Rate Actual Fatalities

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999

Number of Fatalities (in Thousands)

Year

4

2004

42,636 Fatalities

Nearly 3M Injuries

$230B+ Cost to the Nation (2000)

$820.00 per person

4,365,000 (PDO) crashes (2003)

5

Risky Business: The Consequences

Human

Economic

Mobility

Environmental

6

Trends in Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1923 1966 1980 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002

Year

Rate Per Year

Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT

Fatality Rate per 100,000 Population

2003

7

32,127 32,225 32,043 32,843 32,271 31,693

2,483 2,897 3,1973,270 3,714 4,008

7,107 6,823 6,9566,892 6,899 6,935

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

99 00 01 02 03 04

Other Occupants/Non-OccupantsMotorcycle RidersPassenger Vehic le Occupants

32,127 32,225 32,043 32,843 32,271 31,693

2,483 2,897 3,1973,270 3,714 4,008

7,107 6,823 6,9566,892 6,899 6,935

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

99 00 01 02 03 04

Other Occupants/Non-OccupantsMotorcycle RidersPassenger Vehic le Occupants

Motor Vehicle Fatalities

42,63642,63642,88442,88441,94541,94541,71741,717 42,19642,196 43,00543,005

Source: FARS

8

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

BAC 0.08+ BAC 0.01- 0.07 Source: FARS

14,40914,409

2,2852,285

14,67814,67815,09315,09314,85814,85814,87014,870

2,511 2,542 2,432 2,427

17,38117,381 17,40017,400 17,52517,525 16,69416,69417,10517,105

Persons Killed in Alcohol-Related Traffic Crashes, By Year

9

Risk Factors: Fatality Characteristics (2003)

Failure to wear safety belts (59% unrestrained)Impaired driving (41%)Roadway departures (38%) Speeding (31%)Distracted driving (25%)Intersections (21%) Unlicensed drivers (20%)Pedestrians (11%)Trucks (11%) Motorcycles (8%)Pedalcyclists (2%)Transit (.06%)

Total = 267%

Total = 267%

10

Fatal Crashes (2002)

14%

7%

15%10%

Impaired(30%)

Roadwaydeparture

(32%)(ROR)

Fixedobject(23%)

11

Defining the Problem

Police Accident Reports

Data Management and Coordination

Analytic Techniques

12

Is the incident an accident?

Damn

13

Addressing the Problem

Explicit Planning Factor

• AASHTO Greenbook and MUTCD

• Assumption: projects are “safe and efficient”

Limited solution sets

• Independent infrastructure projects

• Hazard elimination and rail grade crossing programs

• Behavioral projects (Section 402)

14

What do we worry about?

Aggressive Driving

Inattentive Driving

15

Aggressive Driving: Most Worrisome Issue (2002)

AAA Survey (39% of drivers)

The Economist, Dec 14, 2002 p33

16

How new is aggressive driving?

1968 Parry. Aggression on the Road

1971 Whitlock. Aggression responsible for 85% of road crashes in England

And before?

Claude Guillot, 1707. Louvre

17

Driver Inattention

Fatigue and stress

Multi-tasking

Kids in the back seat

Roadside features

Eating and drinking

What else?

18

We know the problem is not handling the phone – it’s the attention issue.

19

What Do We Need to Worry About?

Older Person Safety and Mobility

Decision Making Structure

20

Population Pyramid -- 1950

21

Population Pyramid -- 2025

22

Population Pyramid -- 2050

23

The Changing Demographics

The Baby Boomers

Aging in Place

Licensed drivers

Vehicle miles traveled

Education

Health

Wealth

24

A Word of Caution!

25

Driver’s License, 65+, 2003

0102030405060708090

100

65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 75 80 - 84 85+

Men

Women

Rosenbloom, TRB, 2005

26

Married, Spouse Present, 65+

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

65 - 74 75 -84 85+

Men

Women

Rosenbloom, TRB, 2005

27

Crash Factors for Older Drivers

Injury and crash causation factors

Frailty

Wayfinding and distraction

Intersections

Signage

Pedestrians

Safety belts

28

Fatal Crashes per 100 Million Miles Traveled

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18 20

16 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Driver Age Group

Male Female

Source: Williams 2003

29

Driver deaths per 1000 driver involvements

0123456789

10

16-19 20-29 30-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+

Driver age

Dea

ths

per

1,0

00 C

rash

es

Male

Female

Source: Braver and Chen 2003

30

Summary

Serious public health problem

Multivariate risk factors; hence, collaboration

New approaches required

Standard, “one size fits all” solutions nonexistant

Changes in organizational priorities are required.

31

What Do We Need to Worry About?

Decision Making Structure

• Who’s making the rules? Politics vs. Technical Experts

• “Congestion trumps safety every time.”

• “The road builders always win.”

32

Safety Solutions

TEA-21 Safety Planning Factor

SAFETEA-LU

• Safety Planning Factor

• Strategic Highway Safety Plans

• Behavioral Safety Program

• Traffic Records

• Earmarks

33

Are we ahead of where we were 30 years ago?

Many issues are recurring, but we deal with them using more sophisticated methods.

While the driver has not evolved much since the creation of the first motor vehicles, the vehicles and roadways have.

The challenge now: application of knowledge gained in understanding behavior in the context of the old systems to the new and rapidly evolving ones.

Prof. David Shinar, Ben Gurion University

34

This is not the solution!

35

THANK YOU