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TRANSPORTATION & ENERGYTRANSPORTATION & ENERGYFundamentals and
Comparisons
Panos D. Prevedouros, PhDProfessor of Transportation
Department of Civil [email protected]
Presented at Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), April 25, 2012
O U T L I N EO U T L I N E
Change is the Only ConstantChange is the Only Constant
Transportation is EverywhereTransportation is Everywhere
T t ti d ETransportation and Energy
Summary
CHANGE IS THE ONLY CONSTANT
Aging
latio
n A
Popu
Aging
latio
n A
Popu
city
Mega‐c
Million M
st 100
Mthe Firs
nning t
Pla
G D P
+ US
RIC + J
ars = B
on Doll
en Trillio
Next Te
The N
TRANSPORTATION’SEVERYWHERE!
The relationships between transportation and the economy are very complex and poorly understood.
Transportation is a massive enterprise with substantial direct and indirect effects on economic productivity anddirect and indirect effects on economic productivity and
economic growth.
Transportation industries—the provision of transportation services, the manufacture of vehicles, and the construction of infrastructure—are major economic activities in themselvesare major economic activities in themselves
Transportation is an enabler of economic activity and a facilitator of international trade.
Key Transportation Indicators, National Research Council, USA, 2002
MEANS TO OVERCOME DISTANCE FOR…
• Commuters• GoodsGoods• Military• Services• Tourism• Business
f l k• Life style takes you to:• Shopping Center• Restaurant
h• Beach• Doctor• Amusement Park…
INFRASTRUCTURE
• Roads
• Bridges
• Tunnels
• Railwaysy
• Airports, ATC
• HarborsHarbors
• Construction Machines and Equipment
• DepotsDepots
• Hangars
• Yards• Yards
• Intermodal Links
VEHICLES• Bicycles, mopeds, motorcycles, 3‐wheelers
• Cars, vans, pickups, other light duty vehicles
• Buses, trucks, other heavy duty vehicles
• Light, heavy, intercity and high speed trains
• Aircraft; Marine Vessels; Specialized vehicles
PEOPLE
• Logistics staffAd i i t t i t• Administrators, managers, investors
• Drivers, pilots, captains, operators, conductors, police• Engineers designers foremen and construction crewsEngineers, designers, foremen and construction crews• Maintenance and repair staff• Technology development, R&D, University staffgy p y• Politicians and political appointees• People in mitigation of trans. problems
• Noise• Pollution• Crashes• Regulations• Disputes
ENERGY & FUELS
• Fuels: civilian or military use, export
• Electric power: civilian or military use, export
• Refineries
• Power plants
• Mines, oil platforms, exploration (e.g., fracking)
MATERIALS
• Aggregate Cemex is the world's third‐bi k I• Cement
• Steel, metals, alloys
biggest cement‐maker. It comes from Mexico, it is 105 years old, it employs
• Glass
• Water
26,000 people, and its 2004 turnover was $8 Billion.
• Lubricants
• Asphalt
SECURITY
• TSA, Police
• TerrorismTerrorism
• Warning Systems
• Disaster Resilience• Disaster Resilience
• Disaster Recovery
SPORTS
• Marathons and bike races or roadways
b ilb d i l• Car, canoe, boat, sailboat and airplane races
• Monaco, Las Vegas, etc. on street Grand Prix
• Raceway development and events
TRAUMA CENTERS• Treat victims of crashes
• Other victims in transportation … Worldwide, an estimated 1.2 million people are killed in road crashes each year
escalators, elevators, sidewalks
• Victims of processes related to
in road crashes each year and 50 million are injured. (WHO, 2010)
transportation … from ore extraction to make rails or bridges … to sports i j iinjuries
Ab t 8% f
Transportation may be ~1/3 of an economyAbout 8% of U.S. labor has a direct transp. job: p jTruck, bus or taxi driver, pilot, etc.
y:
Policy
Korea
s…ou
th K
xports
and So Ex
hina
aCh
Transportation Outlook?
ENERGYENERGY
TRANSPORTATION AND ENERGYTRANSPORTATION AND ENERGY
R = (3B + T)ER = (3B + T)
• R = Requirements of healthy humans in an• R = Requirements of healthy humans in an orderly and peaceful environment
• B = Basics: Food, Water, Shelter
• T = Transportation• T = Transportation
• E = Energy sets the pace for B and T
• (Law and Order, Medicine/Health Care, Defense, Communications, Recreation)
Sustainability Blocks
FOOD WATER SHELTER TRANS‐PORT‐
INFRASTRUCTUREPORT‐ATION
MATERIALS FUELS ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
P O W E R (HP, KW, …)
LAWS POLICIES RULES FEES TAXES TARIFFS
MATERIALS FUELS, ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
LAWS, POLICIES, RULES, FEES, TAXES, TARIFFS
MIT Professor Dennis Meadows: In 1998 we had the dot‐com bubble bust. In 2008 we had the housing bubble bust. Both proved our
primitive understanding of bubbles. We now form a new bubble in p gpopulation, and in material and energy consumption.
In 1972, a team of expertsteam of experts
from MIT presented a
db kigroundbreaking report called The Limits to Growth.
In 2012 Australian
physicist and sustainability analyst Graham Turner updated it pwith data from 1970 to 2000
Demand for energy: 2x in 40 years
Clean energy is growing…
but each one… but each one has its own set of
problems (especially these
two) …
Dependence on fossil fuels will continue
Reserves are big… so is the pressure to not use them
EV’s and turbines depend or “rare earth”
EV: Big news.
Where is the demand?demand?
Did CAFE andDid CAFE and the cost of renewables
kill it?
Some changes are obviousare obvious, but their i iimpact is modest.
For Energy and TransportationFor Energy and Transportation, the old world is about i l hincremental change.
New World holds promise for the next leap forward.p
Perhaps the next “wave” is about Power
PowerRevolution
RoboticsGenetics
Schumpeter: Kondratiev wave, K‐wave
Can BRIC reachCan BRIC reach 1st world living standards?standards?
Environmentalists are fiddling while Rome burns,” says Vinod Khosla, founder of Khosla Ventures, a ,Silicon Valley venture‐capital firm.
“Environmentalists get in the way with silly stuff like asking people to
… VinodK lwith silly stuff like asking people to
walk more, drive less. That is an increment of 1‐2% change. We need 1,000% change if billions of people
Kosla says… No!
in China and India are to enjoy a Western, energy‐rich lifestyle.”
Forget today’s green technologies An energyForget today s green technologies like electric cars, wind turbines, solar cells and smart grids. None meets what Khosla calls the
gybreak‐
through is“Chindia price”—the price at which people in China and India will buy them without a subsidy. “Everything’s a toy until it reaches
through is necessary.
Everything s a toy until it reaches that point.” (Mar. 10, 2011)
Transportation l h b
Transportationanalysis has been ignoring the energy d d f
Economy Energy dependency for too long…
y Energy
Transportation … with great risk for changing
Economy Energy
changing Good Life to Great MessEconomy Energy Great Mess
What Can We Do About It? …
Energy and LCAEnergy and LCA
Life Cycle Models
Cradle to Well toCradle to Grave
Well to Pump
Vehicle Cycle Fuel Cycle
Urban Mode Sustainability Scores
Sustainability Dimensions
ICEV HEV FCV EV PHEV GPT GSUV DB BRT CS CS
Camry Prius Clarity Leaf Volt F‐150 Explorer New flyer New flyer Camry Prius
Environment 0.483 0.637 0.803 0.642 0.606 0.145 0.492 0.717 0.860 0.907 0.959
Technology 0.450 0.500 0.408 0.553 0.471 0.387 0.489 0.628 0.669 0.561 0.590
Energy 0.388 0.572 0.545 0.462 0.541 0.019 0.324 0.673 0.908 0.956 0.999
Economy 0.341 0.385 0.485 0.557 0.454 0.193 0.354 0.326 0.486 0.578 0.561
Users 0.344 0.347 0.291 0.129 0.354 0.429 0.402 0.250 0.228 0.344 0.347
Overall Sustainability
Index40.1% 48.8% 50.6% 46.8% 48.5% 23.4% 41.2% 51.9% 63.0% 66.9% 69.3%
Ranking 10 6 5 8 7 11 9 4 3 2 1
Regional Sustainability Scores
1 000
Environment
0.600
0.800
1.000
0.200
0.400Technology Users
Chicago0.000
ChicagoAtlantaOptimus
Energy Economy
Thank YouThank You
Panos D. Prevedouros, PhDProfessor of Transportation
Department of Civil [email protected]