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Transport Market Monitor
Capacity and diesel indices grow while price index declines
Edition: 30 (February 2017)
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 2
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© Capgemini/TRANSPOREON 2017
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 3
Summary
This is the thirtieth edition of the Transport Market Monitor. It
outlines developments in European road transport rates and
includes the figures of the fourth quarter of 2016.
● The price index decreased by 0.6% in Q4 2016 (index
94.5). When comparing to the index level of the previous
year, Q4 2015, we see that the price index decreased by
3.7%.
● Compared to the same month in 2015, all months in 2016
show a decrease in the price index.
● The capacity index increase to an index level of 93.6
(+10.3%) in Q4 2016. Compared to Q4 2015, the capacity
index is 5.7% higher.
● The diesel index displayed growth for the third quarter in a
row, to an index of 75.2. This index is 7.6% higher than Q3
2016.
These are the conclusions of the Transport Market Monitor by
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting, a quarterly
publication, which aims to track transport market dynamics.
This report is the thirtieth edition of the
Transport Market Monitor. Each quarter, a
new edition will outline the developments
during the past three months and reviews
additional themes in transportation.
All indices in this report are based on the
logistics platform TRANSPOREON, which
handles a yearly transport volume
(different truck types, mainly FTL and
LTL), covering all European countries.
Information is anonymously exported from
the platform and aggregately analyzed by
Capgemini Consulting.
The figures in the Transport Market
Monitor date back to January 2008: the
earliest point of measurement of the index
figures. For all indices, the average
figures of the six months period January
2008 till June 2008 (H1 2008) have been
set as the basis for comparison (Index
100).
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 4
Capacity index grows as price index decreases
This section of the Transport Market Monitor outlines the
quarterly developments of the price and capacity index, since the
beginning of the measurements in 2008 until the fourth quarter of
2016.
The price index (see Figure 1) decreased in Q4 2016 to an index
of 94.5, a decrease of -0.6% compared to Q3 2016 (index 95.1).
Compared to the price index of Q4 2015, the price index
decreased by -3.7%. For all quarters in 2016, the price index is
lower than in the same quarter of the previous year.
In Q4 2016, the capacity index increased to 93.6 (+10.3%)
compared to the previous quarter. In Q4 2015 the capacity index
was 88.6. Compared to last year, the capacity index increased by
5.7%. For all quarters in 2016, the capacity index is higher than
in the same quarter of the previous year.
Figure 1: Transport price and capacity index, quarterly (Q4 2010 – Q4 2016)
For the price and capacity indices, the average figures of the six months period January 2008 till June 2008
have been set as the basis for comparison (Index 100). Figure 1 shows the indices of the last 25 quarters.
102,1
96,4
103,9
101,2 100,6
92,7
99,4 100,098,2
90,2
100,6 100,0101,2
91,5
100,0 99,498,2
94,5
104,9
100,6
98,2
91,5
96,395,1 94,5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q410 Q211 Q411 Q212 Q412 Q213 Q413 Q214 Q414 Q215 Q415 Q216 Q416
Cap
ac
ity i
nd
ex
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price and capacity index (quarterly figures)
Price index Capacity index
The price index is calculated by
comparing the average price per
kilometer over time.
The Capacity Index is an indicator for
“available capacity”, the ratio between
absolute demand and capacity. The
capacity index is calculated by comparing
the average number of bids in response
to a transport request over time.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 5
Price index strongly decreases in November
This section of the Transport Market Monitor depicts the monthly developments in the price and capacity index
over the last twelve months. In Q4 2016, the capacity index grew by 37.2% from October to November. The
price showed an opposite trend moving from October to November, the price index decreased by 6.3%.
December displays the recovery of the price index (+5.2%), with the capacity index showing growth (+3.4%) as
well.
Figure 2: Transport price and capacity index, monthly (Jan 2016 – Dec 2016)
93,3
87,2
93,3 93,3
100,0
95,7
93,9
91,5
98,297,6
91,5
96,2
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16
Cap
ac
ity i
nd
ex
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price and capacity index (month by month)
Price index Capacity index
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 6
Figure 3 compares the monthly development of the price index over the last twelve months, to the same period
one year before. In the last two editions of the TMM (edition 28 and 29, August and November 2016 respectively)
it was already concluded that the price index in 2016 is lower than in 2015. This trend continues in Q4 2016.
On average, the price index in 2016 is -5.2% lower than 2015. In the last quarter of 2016, the difference was
3.6% lower than in Q4 2015.
Figure 3: Transport price index comparison, monthly (Jan 2015 – Dec 2016)
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index comparison
Jan. '15 - Dec. '15 (Price index same period, last year) Jan. '16 - Dec. '16 (Price index last 12 months)
-2,4-4,3
-2,4
-8,5-7,3
-9,1-6,7 -6,1
-4,9-3,0
-4,3 -3,2
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Difference in index points
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 7
Figure 4 compares the monthly development of the capacity index during the previous twelve months to the
same period one year before. In the beginning of Q4 2016, the capacity index performed a trend similar to 2015.
In December, however, we see that the capacity increases strongly when compared with both November 2016
and December 2015 (+3.4% and + 29.0% respectively).
Figure 4: Transport capacity index comparison, monthly (Jan 2015 – Dec 2016)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ca
pa
cit
y i
nd
ex
Capacity index comparison
Jan. '15 – Dec. '15 (Capacity index same period, last year) Jan. '16 – Dec. '16 (Capacity index last 12 months)
8,113,1
-3,4
25,8
11,7
22,5
13,1
5,4 3,4
-3,7
6,0
24,8
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Difference in indexpoints
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 8
Industry focus
General economic conditions apply to most industries, but trends
may be stronger or weaker in individual industries. Analysis of the
price index by the type of industry identifies these differences,
visualized in Figure 5.
Each industry shows a different trend when compared with Q3
2016. In the construction materials industry the price index
decreases by 2.4%. The timber industry’s index remains at an
index of 97.5, and the price index for paperboard/print increases
by 3.0% to an index of 94.5. In comparison with the same quarter
of last year, Q4 2015, all indices have significantly lower values:
-4.7% for construction materials, -9.8% for timber, and -4.9% for
print/paperboard.
Figure 5: Transport price index for different industries (Q1 2008 – Q4 2016)
70
80
90
100
110
120
Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index Construction materials
Construction Materials
70
80
90
100
110
120
Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index Timber
Timber
70
80
90
100
110
120
Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index Paperboard / Print
Paperboard / Print
The TRANSPOREON platform handles
transport for almost all industries. For the
Transport Market Monitor, three different
industry types have been analyzed
individually.
Each chart in Figure 5 depicts the price
development for that particular industry,
indexed against the industry baseline
(H1 2008).
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 9
Price difference increases
This section outlines transport dynamics, by analyzing the price difference between the highest and the lowest
price offered per transport order. Figure 6 illustrates the price difference between offers, and the development
of the capacity index. In the fourth quarter of 2016 the price difference level increases to 21%, which is the
highest difference for a fourth quarter since Q4 2008.
Figure 6: Transport capacity index and price difference (Q4 2010 – Q4 2016)
The price difference is an average figure. In general, price differences increase with the distance to be
travelled (see TMM, edition 1). Figure 6 shows the differences of the last 25 quarters.
16%
19%
11%
14%
15%
20%
14%
16%
19%
22%
17% 18% 17%
21%
18% 18% 18%19%
16% 17%
19%
21%
18% 19%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Q410 Q211 Q411 Q212 Q412 Q213 Q413 Q214 Q414 Q215 Q415 Q216 Q416
Dif
fere
nc
e b
etw
ee
n o
ffe
rs
Cap
ac
ity i
nd
ex
Capacity index and price difference (quarterly)
Price difference between offers Capacity index
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 10
Growth of diesel index continues
This section compares the price index with the diesel index (see
Figure 7). In general there is a positive correlation between the
diesel index and the price index, clearly indicating the impact of
diesel prices on transportation costs and consequently prices.
In Q4 2016, the diesel index continued to increase, now with
7.6% to an index value of 75.2. The recovery that started in Q2 is
therefore continuing. Compared to the same quarter last year, we
see that the diesel index for Q4 2016 is 2.8% higher.
Figure 7: Transport price index and diesel index (Q4 2010 – Q4 2016)
For the price and capacity indices, the average figures of the six months period January 2008 till June 2008
have been set as the basis for comparison (Index 100). Figure 7 shows the indices of the last 25 quarters.
86,3
100,2
103,7 103,7
108,8
115,7
111,7114,4 115,3
111,3
104,9107,2
105,0102,8 101,8 100,9
91,2
76,5
82,6
73,0 73,1
59,1
68,469,9
75,2
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q410 Q211 Q411 Q212 Q412 Q213 Q413 Q214 Q414 Q215 Q415 Q216 Q416
Die
sel i
nd
ex
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price and diesel index (Quarterly)
Price index Diesel index
6%
16%
4%
0%
5% 6%
-3%
2% 1%
-3%-6%
2%
-2% -2% -1% -1%
-10%
-16%
8%
-12%
0%
-19%
16%
2%
8%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Change in diesel index (%) vs. previous quarter
For the diesel index, the average figures
of the six month period January 2008 till
June 2008 have been set as the basis for
comparison (index 100), similar to the
other indices used in this report.
The calculation of the diesel index is
based on diesel price figures across the
European Union, obtained from the
European Commission via
http://ec.europa.eu/.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 11
European Trade Flow Index peaks
This section features the European Trade Flow Index (ETFI). The
ETFI is derived from the Capgemini Consulting’s Global Trade
Flow Index, a measure of worldwide trade. The volume of trade
is a strong driver for transport demand and corresponding prices.
In Q4 2016 trade volumes are expected to increase by 3.2% to
€2128 bln in Europe compared to Q3 2016 (€2062 bln). The trade
volume in Q3 2016 has increased by 0.3%, compared to Q2
2016. Compared to the same period a year ago, in Q4 2015, the
Q4 2016 volume is expected to increase by 2.5%.
Figure 8: European Trade Flow Index (Q4 2011 – Q4 2016E)
1.942
1.995
1.979
2.001
1.961
1.975
1.952
1.9701.976
1.988 1.990
2.0082.016
2.045
2.099
2.064
2.077
2.035
2.0512.062
2.128
2,7%
-0,8%
1,1%
-2,0%
0,8%
-1,2%
0,9%0,3%
0,6%0,1%
0,9%0,4%
1,5%
2,6%
-1,7%
0,6%
-2,0%
0,8%0,3%
3,2%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416E
Gro
wth
of
tra
de
(q
ua
rte
r o
n q
ua
rte
r)
To
tal tr
ad
e v
alu
e (
in b
illi
on
s)
Value (Billion €) Growth (%)
Capgemini Consulting’s Global Trade
Flow Index tracks the trade of goods and
services by quarter based on an analysis
of a number of trade and market-related
parameters from the latest available
official data (related to the import and
export of goods and services) from
national agencies. It is tailored to the
European market for this report, providing
the European Trade Flow Index.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 12
Additional services related to the TMM
Transport Market Developments
A portfolio of offerings
Transport Market Radar
Information on the most recent price and capacity developments in the European transport market
Monthly dashboard about transports in Europe and within Germany Industry focus for transports within Germany Please find more information here
Transport Market Monitor
Provides key insights in the European transport market with the quarterly overview of the most important trends
Quarterly report Please find more information here
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 13
Next edition
This edition looked at the price and capacity developments since the beginning of the Transport Market Monitor
in 2008. It outlined the capacity increase in Q4 2016 compared to Q3 2016.
The next edition, number 31, will include the figures for Q1 2017. It will be published in May 2017.
About the Transport Market Monitor
The aim of the Transport Market Monitor is to provide insights into the development of transport prices, and
other transport market dynamics to logistics executives and other interest groups. It is a joint initiative of
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting.
The indices in the Monitor are based on the logistics platform TRANSPOREON, on which shippers tender and
process their transport needs to their preferred transport partners on a daily basis. The platform handles a
yearly transport volume of over €2 billion in all European countries. Anonymously, information is unlocked
from the platform and analyzed by Capgemini Consulting. This results in monthly indices which are published
on a quarterly basis. In addition to each publication of the Monitor, one or more market themes are discussed,
supported by detailed analysis.
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting can help you to find the right strategy between static and
dynamic prices. Additional information about both companies and their service offerings is available upon
request.
This report is available at http://www.transportmarketmonitor.com. More information about the products and
services of both TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting can be obtained via the contact information
provided at the back of this report.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
TMM-team:
Capgemini Consulting: Thomas Fortgens (NL), Erik van Dort (NL), Milko Teofilov (DE), Christian Österle (DE),
Konstantin Kubenz (DE)
TRANSPOREON: Peter Förster (DE), Katja Hufeland (DE)
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 14
About Capgemini and TRANSPOREON
About Capgemini
About TRANSPOREON
With more than 180,000 people in over 40
countries, Capgemini is one of the world's
foremost providers of consulting, technology and
outsourcing services. The Group reported 2015
global revenues of EUR 11.9 billion. Together with
its clients, Capgemini creates and delivers
business and technology solutions that fit their
needs and drive the results they want. A deeply
multicultural organization, Capgemini has
developed its own way of working, the
Collaborative Business ExperienceTM, and draws
on Rightshore®, its worldwide delivery model.
Learn more about us at: www.capgemini.com
Capgemini Consulting is the global strategy and
transformation consulting organization of the
Capgemini Group, specializing in advising and
supporting enterprises in significant
transformation, from innovative strategy to
execution and with an unstinting focus on results.
With the new digital economy creating significant
disruptions and opportunities, our global team of
over 3,000 talented individuals work with leading
companies and governments to master Digital
Transformation, drawing on our understanding of
the digital economy and our leadership in business
transformation and organizational change.
More information at www.capgemini-
consulting.com
The logistics platform TRANSPOREON connects
shippers from industry & trading companies with
carriers, drivers & consignees – and optimizes and
accelerates logistics processes. Users of the
platform receive web-based SaaS (Software-as-a-
Service) solutions as electronic transport
assignment, time slot management and transport
visibility. TRANSPOREON allows reducing dispatch
and freight costs, while minimizing waiting times
during loading and unloading.
Currently more than 1.000 industry and trading
companies, more than 55,000 carriers and more
than 150,000 users from 100 countries are
connected via the TRANSPOREON platforms. The
platforms as well as the customer service are
available in 23 languages.
Operating company of the logistics platform
TRANSPOREON is the international
TRANSPOREON Group. Other solutions the group
is offering are the tender platform TICONTRACT
and the retail logistics platform MERCAREON. More
than 450 employees are on site throughout Europe,
the U.S.A., Russia and Asia.
Learn more about us at: www.transporeon.com
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 15
Capgemini Consulting
TRANSPOREON
For more information, contact:
Benelux:
Erik van Dort
Tel: +31 30 689 71 19
E-mail: [email protected]
Germany/Switzerland:
Ralph Schneider-Maul
Tel: +49 221 9126 44182
E-mail: [email protected]
UK: Steve Wilson
Tel: +44 870 366 0236
E-mail: [email protected]
Italy:
Via: Erik van Dort
Tel: +31 30 689 71 19
E-mail: [email protected]
Austria:
Ralph Schneider-Maul
Tel: +49 221 9126 44182
E-mail: [email protected]
France:
Gerald Murat
Tel: +33 6 78 90 68 64
E-mail: [email protected]
Nordic Countries:
Michael Eriksson
Tel: +46 702 57 51 95
E-mail: [email protected]
Poland:
Via: Erik van Dort
Tel: +31 30 689 71 19
E-mail: [email protected]
www.capgemini-consulting.com
For more information, contact:
Balkans:
Armin Musija
Tel: + 43 (0) 664 1966 542
E-mail: [email protected]
Benelux:
Michel Haenen
Tel: +31 6 123 95 308
E-mail: [email protected]
Germany/Switzerland and Nordic countries:
Volkert Gasche
Tel: +49 4101 8316761
E-mail: [email protected]
UK:
Michel Haenen
Tel: +31 6 123 95 308
E-mail: [email protected]
Italy:
Roberto Ostili
Tel: +39 050 552168
E-mail: [email protected]
Austria:
Armin Musija
Tel: + 43 (0) 664 1966 542
E-mail: [email protected]
France:
Jérôme Gabalde
Tel: +33 (0) 1 39 21 03 19
E-mail: [email protected]
Spain:
Miriam Ribas
Tel: + 34 977 6200 39
E-mail: [email protected]
Poland:
Grzegorz Prorok
Tel: + 48 (0) 12 639 53 28
E-mail: [email protected]
Romania:
Tibor Batki
Tel: + 36 30 495 4616
E-mail: [email protected]
Slovakia/Czech:
Jacek Tarkowski
Tel: + 48 510 026 376
E-mail: [email protected]
Hungary:
Tibor Batki
Tel: + 36 30 495 4616
E-mail: [email protected]
www.transporeon.com
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