Transmission Automation Trends

Webinar: Transmission automation trends in the global commercial vehicles industry

Chairperson:

Dr Peter Wells, Director, Centre for Automotive Industry Research,

Cardiff Business School

Speakers: Detlef Schmidt – WABCO Rodrigo Meirelles – Eaton

Sandeep Kar – Frost & Sullivan

Sponsored by:

Transmission Automation Trends in the Global Commercial Vehicles Industry

Detlef Schmidt WABCO BU DLC Marketing Leader

May 27, 2010 Automotive World Webinar

ABOUT WABCO

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CONTENT

• Global transmission market overview • Industry issues determining future trends • Usage in trucks and buses • WABCO's path of transmission automation

system (AMT) development • AMT for emerging markets • Summary


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INDUSTRY ISSUES

Regulation

Technology

Supply chain

Fleets Owner/op

● Increasing emission standards requiring higher focus on fuel efficiency ● Government incentives in certain regions to push new technologies

● Transmission and driveline developments seen economically most effective in providing FUEL ECONOMY improvements

● Truck manufacturers in emerging markets requiring short-term technical solutions at lowest invest

● Focus on vehicle efficiency, total cost of ownership, limited invest ● Fuel being the most relevant driver of total cost of ownership

…and the winner is…

Increasing vehicle efficiency is on everyone’s agenda


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DRIVERS OF FUEL EFFICIENCY

• Fuel price is the highest in India and China compared to purchasing power, representing up to 50% of the operating cost structure. Fuel savings will have the highest impact on the whole value chain.

• Despite the lowest fuel price over purchasing power, fuel efficiency

in the US is driven by government incentives and overall economic climate. In fact, fuel costs still account for 20% - 30% of total operating costs.

Different drivers for fuel efficiency worldwide


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AMT IN TRUCKS & BUSES

Transmission automation provides benefits across all applications

● LONG-HAUL Truck/Trailer combinations

● DISTRIBUTION and CITY Trucks

● COACHES and CITY Buses incl. Hybrid applications

●CONSTRUCTION and DUMP Trucks with specific off-road functionality


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TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION SYSTEMS

PNEUMATIC TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION Modular System ● Components are mounted to the transmission

according to their function and replace manual actuators on standard manual transmissions

Integrated System ● All system components are integrated in one unit

directly built into the transmission structure

ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION Electro-Hydraulic System ● Central power supply by electro-motorically driven

hydraulic pump and accumulator ● Hydraulic gear and clutch actuation

Electro-Motoric System ● Separate electro-motors for actuation of gears and clutch

Customer and market requirements determining optimal solution


Extension to MD

Expansion to new markets

Increasing integration

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LEADING EXPERIENCE IN TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION

1985 1988

2000 1995

2003

First transmission automation for trucks

1st transmission automation system with integrated valves and actuators

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2004

Next system generation

First hydraulic transmission automation for medium duty application

Fully integrated system with shift forks

First fully integrated transmission automation

Modular system with integrated ECU

2009

20+ years of innovation and experience

1996

Improved system structure with optimized components

First series introduction of AMT in China


11 Modularity and standardization is key to increasing penetration

WAY TO WABCO OptiDriveTM

● Most cost efficient solution for emerging markets

● High level of standard components with synergies for different applications ● Simple adaptation to existing transmission platforms

● Short time to market ● Min. space requirements at the transmission

● System integration in existing vehicle environment ● Various applications to be covered

● Modularity from 5 to 16 speed ● Add-On AMT system for manual transmission

● Complete system development for OE customers

Market / Customer Needs NOT equipped with AMT Equipped with AMT


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SUMMARY

● Market requirements focusing on reduction of total cost of ownership, specifically fuel efficiency

● Driveline and transmission technology is seen most effective in achieving short-term fuel efficiency

● Transmission automation systems (AMT) combine benefits of both – manual’s efficiency and automatic’s electronic control

● Increasing penetration of transmission automation systems in emerging markets will be key to significantly contribute to global emission reduction

Increasing focus on fuel efficiency globally is expected to push AMT penetration

PASSION


The next presentation is from:

Rodrigo Meirelles Director, Global Product Planning

Commercial Vehicles Eaton Corporation

Sponsored by:

© 2010 Eaton Corporation. All rights reserved.

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Transmission Automation Trends in the Global Commercial Vehicles Industry

Rodrigo Meirelles Director, Global Product Planning Commercial Vehicle Transmissions Eaton Corporation

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Agenda

• Transmission technologies • Automation drivers • Regional acceptance

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The Mature Transmission Technologies CMT Constant-Mesh Transmissions

• De-facto NAFTA HD standard (70%) • Eaton is market leader

• Replaced in W.E. by SMT in 1990’s, same happening in China now

• Robust & reliable, but requires trained drivers

SMT Synchronized Manual Transmissions

• Global MD & HD reference • Eaton, ZF & VI OEMs

• Key growth platform for emerging markets (China & India)

• Robust & simpler to drive, but not all synchronizers are reliable

AMT Automated Mechanical Transmission

• De-facto W.E. HD standard (67%) • Driven by VI OEMs (Volvo & Daimler)

• Up to now limited to on-highway applications

• UltraShift PLUS designed for on/off-road

• Easy to drive and efficient

TCA Torque Converter Automatic

• NAFTA MD Standard (70%) • Allison is market leader

• Bus, Specialty & Off-Road • Good drivability, but poor fuel

efficiency Aut

omat

ed

Man

ual

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Automation Drivers

• Why people buy AMTs... • Safety • Ease of use • Powertrain and drivetrain

protection

• Why they don’t... • Acquisition price • Unproven fuel economy • Uptime and service • Fear of the unknown

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W Europe: AMT’s De-facto Standard for HD

• Similar design used by all OEMs • 2 x 3 x 2 transmission • Pneumatic actuation • Organic clutch

• AMT “solved” technical hurdles to SMT integration • Boosted clutch linkage • Remote shift controls

• VI OEMs competing for vehicle share • Future AMT adoption increase expected in MD

AMTs sell at little or no premium

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NAFTA: Mixed Adoption Rates

• TCA current standard for MD, bus & coach, some HD vocational: Limited by: • Fuel economy, cooling requirements, vehicle controllability

• HD AMT adoption currently limited by: • Driver culture (but it’s changing as skilled driver pool shrinks) • Acquisition price (Fuller 10-speed & NA vehicle architecture) • On-highway vocation focus created limited 2nd user

acceptance

• New US government fuel economy goals may drive more AMTs UltraShift PLUS family covers most On-Highway and

Off-Road specialty vocations

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Emerging Markets: New Frontier for AMT, but How Distant? • Total cost of ownership & lack of skilled drivers keys to

AMT adoption • Acquisition price / service capability main barriers in

China, India, Russia • Premium & public segments will lead

• Brazil likely to follow European OEM model for similar vocations

• New transmission suppliers will struggle with technology • Key is in system logic, not hardware

Adoption rate is low, but all OEMs are eager to learn and develop AMT capabilities

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UltraShift® PLUS Best-in-class Automated Transmission System

• Family of highly capable automated transmissions for On & Off-Road applications

• Modular construction based on proven twin countershaft architecture

• Competitive alternative to Torque Converter Automatics • Higher efficiency • Lower cooling requirements • Superior controllability

• Family of highly capable automated transmissions for On & Off-Road applications

• Modular construction based on proven twin countershaft architecture

• Competitive alternative to Torque Converter Automatics • Higher efficiency • Lower cooling requirements • Superior controllability

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The next presentation is from:

Sandeep Kar Global Manager

Commercial Vehicle Research Frost & Sullivan

Sponsored by:

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Global Commercial Vehicle Powertrain Systems Market

Clear Signs of Growth in Demand for Automated and Automatic Transmissions

Sandeep Kar- Global Manager- Commercial Vehicle Research

May, 2010

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Global Commercial Truck Production: Polarization of Truck Classes Implies Growth in LCV and HCV Segments

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Case in Point: Chinese and Indian CV Markets Show Strong Polarization Trends

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In Europe the LCV Segment is Expected to Experience a CAGR of 2.4 Percent (2008-2013)

LCVs Powered by Diesel Engines (55% Penetration Forecast for 2015-2020) and

Featuring Stepped MTs will Prevail..DCT, ATs will

Gain Penetration

LCVs Powered by Diesel Engines (55% Penetration Forecast for 2015-2020) and

Featuring Stepped MTs will Prevail..DCT, ATs will

Gain Penetration

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Demand Analysis: Trucks by Transmission Type (North America),

Trucks in Operation by Class Type (2009)

New Truck Sales by Transmission Type (2009) New Truck Sales Forecasts (2005 – 2015)

Demand for automatic and automated transmissions for Class 6-8 trucks is forecast to increase until 2015 because they are easier to operate and are more fuel efficient

In 2015, automatics/automated will represent almost 35% of new truck sales, rising from 22% in 2008.

In 2008, Class 8 production trucks had the highest concentration of automated manual transmissions (11%).

Both are more costly than manuals to maintain (require more fluid), repair, reman/rebuild (much more complex).

Automatics cost 20 to 30% more than manuals. Comparatively, automated manuals are cheaper and cost 10-15% more than manuals.

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Future Intentions of Automatic/Automated Transmissions Technologies Among Fleet Managers in U.S.

87% are familiar with Automatic

Transmission.

64% are familiar with Automated

Transmission.

Q: How likely are you to consider automatic/automated transmissions over manual transmissions in future new truck purchases?

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Rising Awareness and Demand for Automatic and Automated Transmissions

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Fuel Efficiency Enhancement of Trucks Through A Combination of Modifications and Regulatory Support

Source: Frost & Sullivan

2007 2015

Hybrid Powertrain

Electronic Controls and Modulation

Class 6 - 8 Truck Fuel Efficiency Enhancement

Automated/ Automatic

Transmission

Advanced Turbocharger

Smaller Engine, Camless

Engine

Powertrain Systems Modifications for Hybrid Trucks

Auxiliary Power Unit

Advanced Thermal

Management

Lightweight Structural and Body Materials

Air - Disc Brakes, Regenerative Braking

Lighter Fuel Tank

Vehicle Geometry Aerodynamic Modifications

Fuel Injection, Valve Actuation Improvements

Low Resistance Tires

Reduced Engine Friction Reduced Trailer Gap

Higher Loads

Lesser Congestion

Optimum Speed

Other Design Modifications

Regulatory Support

Low - viscosity Lubricants

Hybrid Powertrain

Electronic Controls and Modulation

Truck Fuel Efficiency Enhancement

Automated/ Automatic

Transmission

Advanced Turbocharger

Smaller Engine, Camless

Engine

Powertrain Systems Modifications for Hybrid Trucks

Auxiliary Power Unit

Advanced Thermal

Management

Lightweight Structural and Body Materials

Air - Disc Brakes, Regenerative Braking

Lighter Fuel Tank

Vehicle Geometry Aerodynamic Modifications

Fuel Injection, Valve Actuation Improvements

Low Resistance Tires

Reduced Engine Friction Reduced Trailer Gap

Higher Loads

Lesser Congestion

Optimum Speed

Other Design Modifications

Regulatory Support

Low - viscosity Lubricants

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Hybrid Commercial Vehicle Market= Smart Business At Play

North American and European Hybrid Commercial Vehicles Market: Production Forecast (North America & Europe), 2006 - 2016

CAGR 90.9 %

CAGR 99.6 %

North American and European Hybrid Commercial Vehicles Market: Market Attractiveness of Commercial Hybrid Systems (North America & Europe), 2009-2016

Market attractiveness for hybrid vehicles is highest in the MCV, HCV and Bus segments

Least Pressure on Existing Infrastructure Will Continue Drawing Governments, Truckmakers and Customers Towards Hybrid CVs in EU and NA in New Decade

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Class 6-8 Hybrid Truck Production: Hybrid Trucks to Set to Account for 8 Percent of Total Truck Production by 2015, New revenue Streams for Automated/Automatic Transmission Suppliers

Volvo/Mack‐11%

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Questions?

Webinar Q&A: Transmission automation trends in the global commercial vehicles industry

Q&A chaired by:

Dr Peter Wells, Director, Centre for Automotive Industry Research,

Cardiff Business School

Speakers: Detlef Schmidt – WABCO Rodrigo Meirelles – Eaton

Sandeep Kar – Frost & Sullivan

Sponsored by:

Documents

Transmission Automation Trends