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Transition, Globalisation and Labour in the BS & CA Region. 23-24 February 2009 Athens. Kiichiro Fukasaku Head of Regional Desks Development Centre. OECD and the BS Region. The BS region is a key component of OECD’s broader Eurasia initiative Regional focus and national strategies - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Transition, Globalisation and Labour in the BS &
CA Region23-24 February 2009
Athens
Kiichiro FukasakuHead of Regional Desks
Development Centre
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OECD and the BS Region
• The BS region is a key component of OECD’s broader Eurasia initiative
• Regional focus and national strategies
• 3 Main Objectives: Improve the business climate by sharing
OECD-country best practices and policy experiences
Peer review and peer learning
Assist partner countries in stimulating investment, creating jobs and supporting local businesses
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BSECAO BSECAO 20082008 An OECD Development Centre Economic
OutlookFocus on the BSEC-CA Regions• A cross-country comparative analysis of
macroeconomic and policy developments of the BSEC-CA region, involving 12 BSEC and 5 CA countries
Black Sea and Central Asia: Promoting Work and Well-being
• Recent economic developments in the BSEC-CA regions (Part I)
• Work and well-being: policy challenges in the global environment (Part II)
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GrowthGrowth Strong & Sustained Overall Growth
GROWTH:• Over 2001-06, average growth rate
for the 11 CIS countries was around 8 per cent, comparing favourably with Asian economies.
• Substantial improvements in productivity have been the driving force behind this strong growth.
TRADE:• The European Union is the main
trade partner for the region, accounting for over half of all trade for the six non-CIS countries.
• Russia is the main intra-regional trading partner,
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ExportsExports Specialisation in BSEC-CA Countries
Export specialisation (Balassa) Index average 2001-06
SITC group 1 2 3 4 6
beverages & tobacco
crude materials (ex.
fuel)
mineral fuels
animal & vegetable oils
manufactured goods
Albania 1.9 3.4 0.3 0.1 1Armenia 10.7 3.5 0.3 0.3 3.9Azerbaijan 0.8 0.9 8.8 2.3 0.2Bulgaria 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.7 1.8Georgia 18.8 7.4 0.4 0.1 0.8Greece 4.6 1.8 1 6.4 1.5Kazakhstan 0.2 2.1 6.9 0.1 1.4Kyrgyz Rep. 3.5 3.6 1.4 0 0.7Moldova 33.3 2.8 0.1 8.7 0.6Romania 0.2 1.8 0.9 0.6 1.4Russia 0.2 1.4 5.3 0.2 1.1Serbia 1.5 1.5 0.3 2.3 2.6Tajikistan* 0.2 7.6 0.1 0 4.4Turkey 1.1 0.5 0.2 1.2 1.8
Turkmenistan* 0 0.9 9.3 0 0.2Ukraine 1.2 2.4 1 5.2 3.1Uzbekistan* 0.6 10 1.5 0.2 1.4Source: OECD Development Centre / Comtrade, 2008
• No BSEC-CA countries have any form of specialisation in exports of food and animals (SITC 0), chemical products (SITC 5) or machinery and transport products (SITC 7)
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Central Europe:
First Wave of
FDI
SEE: Second wave of FDI
SCU:Third wave?
FDI in USD
Million
Source: EBRD Transition report 2007, OECD DAF/PSD
Successive Waves of FDI Flows
InvestmentInvestment
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Labour Market Policies in the Global Environment
SHOCKS:• Transition• Globalization
Firms(chapter 4)
Households(chapter 5)
Governments(chapter 6)
BSECAO BSECAO 20082008
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Labour Market Outcomes
• Transition in an open economy → – more severe recession than expected– ↑ volatility and job insecurity
• During the 1990s labour market policy responses were limited
• The Outlook describes how labour market policies evolved during the 2000s– but the context was also set by
households’ responses during the 1990s
BSECAO BSECAO 20082008
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Social indic.Social indic. A heavy social cost: death rates in BSEC-CA countries
Source: OECD Development Centre / IMF
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Households’ Coping Mechanisms• Short-term coping mechanisms
– family and community support• Longer-term coping mechanisms
– Informality*– migration
• Vulnerable groups and coping mechanisms– gender roles, urban-rural gaps, ethnic
relations, pensioners, children
BSECAO BSECAO 20082008
* Jütting & de Laiglesia (2009), Informal Is Normal?, Development Centre Studies , OECD; and Parleviet & Xenogiani (2008), “Report on Informal Employment in Romania”, Development Centre Working Paper 271, OECD
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Policy Responses• ILO Conventions and improving the
labour market environmentemployment protection, unemployment
insurance, minimum wage legislation, reducing informality
• Active Labour Market Policiespublic employment, vocational training,
microfinance, youth employment
• Public redistribution targeting social assistance
• Facilitating private redistribution
BSECAO BSECAO 20082008
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Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
• Investment on statistics• Regularising informal activities• Active labour market policies• Employment-oriented social polices
and targeted assistance• Migration, remittances and migrant
workers’ rights• Sustaining reforms for better job
creation
BSECAO BSECAO 20082008
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From BSECAO 2008 to the OECD Initiative for the South Caucasus and
Ukraine (2009-2010)
• GDP growth disparities across countries in the BS region
• FDI levels and growth still relatively low in the BS region Average FDI per capita up to 6 times lower than South East Europe or CEE Average FDI growth a third lower than regions like South East Europe Limited FDI diversification in most countries
Prioritise policies to improve the business climate and meet the skill gaps facing the private sector
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The OECD Initiative for the South Caucasus and Ukraine
- Key Dates for 2009 -
Preparatory meeting (2-3 March, Paris)
Ministerial conference (31 March-1 April, Paris)
Financial market development (4-5 June, Austria)
Investment climate policy and promotion (16-17 June, Berlin)
Human capital for financial and business services (October)
Advisory Council (November)
Preparatory meeting (2-3 March, Paris)
Ministerial conference (31 March-1 April, Paris)
Financial market development (4-5 June, Austria)
Investment climate policy and promotion (16-17 June, Berlin)
Human capital for financial and business services (October)
Advisory Council (November)
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Thank you