Transit-Orientated-Development and the 24-Hour City

A/Professor François Viruly University of Cape Town

10 May 2018 WCPDF

Savills

STEEP: The Factors Disrupting the Property Market

SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMIC POLITICAL

Urbanisation Internet of Things Smart Buildings Digitization Grass- Routes

Politics

Middle-Class Big Data Sustainability Black Middle-Class Decline Local Gov

Demographics TOD Construction Informality Smart Cities

A Glimpse into the Future… Key Disruptors

TECHNOLOGY TRANSPORT SOCIAL

Source: Eigene Darstellung; nach Rachel Botsman, 2014

Accumulated in

nearly a century

610 000 Rooms in 88 Countries

Old Model:

Asset-intensive

Accumulated in 4 years

650 000 Rooms in 192 Countries

New Model:

Information-intensive Lausberg

PROPTECH: Big Data and Property

PROPTECH FINTECH

Proptech (created within and for the property sector) is endogenous:

fintech, virtual reality, blockchains, artificial intelligence, and smart sensors

SMART

REAL

ESTATE

SHARED

ECONOMY

REAL

ESTATE

FINTECH

Previous Cycles in South Africa: 1960-2017 “Creative Destruction and Structural Changes”

19

73

19

83

20

06

Real Economic Growth : GDP

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

y-o-y % change

BER forecast

Source: StatsSA

Total IPD Returns vs GDP Growth

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Capital Income GDP Interest

MSCI 2017 MSCI

SAPOA

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Johannesburg Decentralised Durban DecentralisedCape Town Decentralised Pretoria Decentralised

Decentralised A & B Office Vacancies

Cape Town Take-up Rates

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SQM

CBD Century City V& A Claremont Pinelands Rondebosch Bellville

SAPOA

Mortgage Advance % change over 12 months

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

%

Commercial Property

Total Mortgage Advance

Residential Property

SARB

Survey of Investment Opportunities (ULI)

Ranking Top 5 Ranking Bottom 5

1 Logistics 19 Science Parks

2 Self Storage 20 Retail Parks

3 Private Res

21 Business Parks

4 Student Housing

22 Suburban Offices

5 Retirement Housing

23 Out of Town Shopping

ULI 2018 / Emerging Trends in Real Estate

Market Structures-Portfolio Investment

SAPIX/IPD

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

South Africa

UK

Portugal

Spain

Canada

Ireland

Norway

Netherlands

France

Germany

Denmark

Sweden

Residential Office Retail Industrial Other

A Glimpse into the Future… Transport and Social

TECHNOLOGY TRANSPORT SOCIAL

The Potential Benefits of TODs Do we expect too much with this tool ?

Successful TOD

Ecological

Potential to promote

developments

Easy access to transit limits

Cost Reduction

Diverse mix of use in

commercial developments

Access to quality public

space

Congestion reduction

Safe environment

Optimising TOD Externalities and Realizing the Benefits (the externalities)

OPTIMISING TOD

EXTERNALITIES

Focus on the correct level of

scale

Understand Markets

- Segments

-Structure of Markets

-Costs

Understand the Players

Influence

Feasibilities

Avoid Distorting the Market

Improving and Managing the Intensity of Use of the Built Environment

Connecting the Built Environment 24 Hours a Day

Source: City of Cape Town

The Night-Time Economy

• The focus has been on spatial attributes and little is being said about the relationship between time and the built environment

• City policies at present says very little about the night time economy . It is undervalued , under researched and unrecognised

• Not just focused on the leisure and alcohol sector – it has positive implications for employment (creative industries) and tourism

• In the new Economy many don’t work Standard hours.

• Use the night time economy to be more efficient and inclusionary - education and the delivery of social services .

• It improves inclusivity , diversity and livability . • A number of cities now have night time mayors

Photos LViruly

The Services Wanted in Nairobi at Night;

Source: C. Munbua

Aligning City Policies with the Night Time Economy

CoCpt

TOWN

PLANNING

SERVICES

BUILDING

OCCUPATION

Property Rights

Tenure

Community

Rights/ Entitlement

The Property Market Delivers one way or another 24 hours a day

Thank You