NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Transforming to a Clean Energy Economy

UNU-WIDER 30th Anniversary

Douglas Arent, Ph.D.

Executive Director, JISEA

September 2015

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Global GHG Footprint

Source: WRI

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Profound Transformation is Underway>2xGrowth of U.S. electricity generation from wind and solar since 2008

~ 50%Percentage of net additions to global electric generating capacity from renewables since 2012

Of the $9.7 trillion of global investment in Power Generation through 2035, 71% will be in renewables or clean technologies. (Citibank 2013)

Electric CarsLED LightsSolar PhotovoltaicsModules

Land-Based Wind

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Much More is PossibleMany studies show one consistent conclusion: We can affordably, securely meet our energy needs with a much higher portion of renewables.

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More than Possible. It’s Happening.Around the world, countries and localities are successfully integrating high penetrations of renewables, and many more are laying the groundwork to follow suit.

Percentages of electricity from renewables, present and planned

DENMARK

40% in 201270% by 2030100% by 2035

GERMANY

25% in 201330% by 203080% by 2035

HAWAII

10% in 201370% by 2030100% by 2045

SPAIN

21% in 2013(wind only)

40% by 2020

SOUTH AFRICA

4% in 201313% by 2020

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Pervasive Innovation

TechnologyPolicyFinanceBusiness Models

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The Evolving Power System …

How Soon? How Fast? What Business Models?

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2010 2050

Renewable Electricity Futures Study

RE generation from technologies that are commercially available today, in

combination with a portfolio of flexible electric system supply- and demand-side

options, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in

2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the

country8

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Renewables Could Supply A Majority of Power

Today’s commercially available technologies, in combination with flexible electric system supply- and demand-side options, can supply 30-90% of total U.S. electricity generation (with nearly 50% from variable wind and solar PV) by 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Baselin

e

30%

RE

40%

RE

50%

RE

60%

RE

70%

RE

80%

RE

90%

RE

% o

f T

ota

l G

en

era

ted

E

lectr

icit

y

Percent RE

Wind

PV

CSP

Hydropower

Geothermal

Biomass

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Variable Generation

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All regions of the country could contribute substantial renewable electricity supply in 2050

80% RE-ITI scenario

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A more flexible electric power system is needed to enable electricity supply-demand balance with high levels of RE generation

• Flexible generators (particularly natural gas)

• Dispatchable renewables (e.g., biopower, geothermal, CSP with storage and hydropower)

• Demand response (e.g., interruptible load)

• Controlled charging of electric vehicles

• Storage

• Curtailment

• Transmission

• Geospatial diversity of the variable resources to smooth output

• Coordinating bulk power system operations across wider areas

System flexibility can be increased using a broad portfolio of supply- and demand-side options, including:

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High renewable electricity futures can result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use

80% RE scenarios lead to: • ~80% reduction in 2050 generation from both coal-fired and natural gas-fired sources• ~80% reduction in 2050 GHG emissions (combustion-only and life cycle)• ~50% reduction in electric sector water use• Gross land use totaling <3% of contiguous U.S. area; other related impacts include visual,

landscape, noise, habitat, and ecosystem concerns.

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LCOE Projections Through 2030

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

Land-based Wind

Offshore W

ind

Solar - U

PV

Solar - C

SP

12TE

S

Geotherm

al

Hydropow

er

Coal

Coal - C

CS

Gas - C

C

Gas - C

CS

Biopow

er

Nuclear

LC

OE

(20

13$/

MW

h)

2013

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

Land-basedW

ind

Offshore W

ind

Solar - U

PV

Solar - C

SP

12TE

S

Geotherm

al

Hydropow

er

Coal

Coal - C

CS

Gas - C

C

Gas - C

CS

Biopow

er

Nuclear

LC

OE

(20

13$/

MW

h)

2030 - Mid

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

Land-basedW

ind

Offshore W

ind

Solar - U

PV

Solar - C

SP

12TE

S

Geotherm

al

Hydropow

er

Coal

Coal - C

CS

Gas - C

C

Gas - C

CS

Biopow

er

Nuclear

LC

OE

(20

13$/

MW

h)

2030 - High

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

Land-basedW

ind

Offshore W

ind

Solar - U

PV

Solar - C

SP

12TE

S

Geotherm

al

Hydropow

er

Coal

Coal - C

CS

Gas - C

C

Gas - C

CS

Biopow

er

Nuclear

LC

OE

(20

13$/

MW

h)

2030 - Low

Cost reductions for wind and solar technologies result in lower magnitude LCOE and tighter range across resources by 2030. No cost reduction is modeled for geothermal, hydropower, fossil, nuclear or biopower technologies. NREL ATB, 2015

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Energy Policy Dynamics Increasingly Complex

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Notes: The funds raised by green bonds are neither entirely inclusive nor exclusive of figures for clean energy asset finance. Bloomberg New Energy Finance will release additionalfurther details on green bond investment activity in a future press release. ‘Sovereign, supranational & agency’ includes bonds issued by issued by international financial institutions,agencies and provinces to finance green projects. ‘Labelled corporate’ includes bonds issued by companies and explicitly labelled as green. ‘US municipal’ refers to bonds issued by USmunicipalities to finance green projects. ‘Project’ refers to project bonds backed by renewable energy projects. ‘ABS’ refers to asset-backed securities whose cashflows come from aportfolio of underlying receivables such as loans, leases and PPAs associated with green projects.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Finance Innovation: Annual historical Green bond issuance, by type, 2007-14 ($bn)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ABS

Project

US municipal

Labelled corporate

Supranational,sovereign & agency

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Energy-Water-Food- Climate Interactions

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Aristotle

Choice, not chance, determines your destiny.”

“

Value-based MarketsPolicy Evolution

ReliabilityIntegrated Solutions

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It is not the essential nature of a technology that matters but its capacity

to fit into the social, political, and economic conditions of the day.

The Economist, March 12, 2012 “The Dream that Failed”

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