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Transformative Scenarios Looking to the future of civil society and philanthropy. Mille Bojer, Reos André Degenszajn , GIFE Janaina Jatobá, Instituto C&A . WINGS Forum 2014 Istanbul, Turkey . São Paulo , Brazil. June 27, 2013. Objectives for this session. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Transformative Scenarios Looking to the future of civil society and philanthropy
São Paulo, BrazilJune 27, 2013
Mille Bojer, Reos André Degenszajn, GIFEJanaina Jatobá, Instituto C&A
WINGS Forum 2014Istanbul, Turkey
2This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.
Objectives for this session
To understand how transformative scenarios can be used to help articulate paths for civil society and to harness the power of networksTo share two stories and explore what we can learn from them about the situation of civil society in South Africa and BrazilTo start a dialogue about the value of scenario thinking in philanthhropy
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Warmup: “If you could speak to a clairvoyant about the future of civil society in your country, what question would
you most like to ask them?”
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What are transformative
scenarios?
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Scenarios: “…structured, well considered stories
describing a small set of possible future contexts and how they might
come about.”
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PredictionsProjectionsPreferencesOptions
Stories of possible futures that are: RelevantIlluminate current circumstances and concernsLink into current mental modelsChallengingMake the invisible visibleQuestion current mental modelsPlausibleFact-based and logicalImprove systemic understandingClearDistinctAccessible and memorable
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Five steps
1. Convene a team from the whole system
5. Act to transformthe system
3. Create the stories that
need to be told
4. Discover what can and must be
done
Source: Kahane
2. Observe what is
happening
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How transformative scenarios work
They transform
Our understanding
Our relationships
Our intentions
Our actions
Our language
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. REOS INSTITUTE 2013 SCENARIOS CASE STUDY SERIES
Dinokeng ScenariosCollectively constructing a
sustainable future for South Africa
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• Seismic political shifts, with Jacob Zuma assuming the presidency in 2009. A time marked by uncertainty, power struggle and political reshuffling within the ANC.
• World in the midst of economic crisis, sending tremors through the local economy
• Large-scale migration from the neighbouring state of Zimbabwe and other countries in the region, and xenophobic attacks across the stressed area.
• The effects of climate change and economic crisis placing increasing pressure on agricultural production, rural sustainability, and food security.
• Unacceptably high levels of crime. • The realities of constructing a new nation had
revealed themselves as an entirely grittier and more complex task than its people had anticipated.
The Context in 2009
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The Scenarios
Engaged
Innefective
Disengaged
Effective
CHARACTER OF CIVIL SOCIETY
CAPACITY OF THE STATE
Collaborative and enabling state.Engaged and active citizenry
Interventionist and directive state.Dependent and compliant citizenry..
Corrupt and inefecttive state.Distrusting and self-protective citizenry
2009
2020 2020
2020
WALK TOGETHER
WALK BEHINDWALK APART
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• Placed the simple, crucial “Walk Together” insight about citizen re-engagement into the center of South African discourse. Example: The essence of the plan for the country prepared by the National Planning Commission, set up in 2010, focuses on engaging an active citizenry, promoting leadership through every aspect of society, and building a capable state.
• Crystallized a core debate among South African leaders about the role that the state should play in national development.
• Members of the Dinokeng team expanded their shared understanding of their situation and of their roles in it. They helped their system get unstuck and move forward.
• The large-scale dissemination of the Dinokeng scenarios was intended to regenerate active participation by South Africans in their new democracy. Dinokeng contributed to opening up and strengthening the country’s politics and its capacity to deal with its challenges.
The Impact
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In 2013, Reos entered into partnership with the D3 Articulation for Democracy, Dialogue and Rights and the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic to co-convene a transformative scenarios process on the future of civil society in Brazil, labeled “Civil Society 2023”.
Civil Society 2023:
Four futures for Brazilian Civil
Society
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Context for the Brazilian Civil Society Scenarios
What is the current reality of Civil Society in Brazil? What were the big uncertainties in 2013? What big questions were we holding about the future?
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The Impact so far
Individual level: Shift in perspective, new actionsOrganizational level: Incorporation into strategic planning processes, impact on leaders, Field level: Placing value on civil society, offering a new language and specific risks and opportunities, creation of a network, new partnerships among participating organizations; dissemination nationally and internationally
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Questions, comments, reflections“How is this all relevant to your
context?”
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For more information:
www.reospartners.com
www.dinokengscenarios.co.za
www.sociedadecivil2023.org.br
Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future by Adam Kahane (Berrett-Koehler, 2012). Available from
Amazon.